Anyone ever figured the reason TLG is discontinuing Kingdoms in 2011 is because they might have a Hobbit line planned for 2012 (when the film is released)? Sorta like there wasn't a Pirates line in 2010 because a PotC line is coming out in 2011 when the new PotC film comes out. From a marketing pov, it makes sense that TLG would want a year in between so that customers will be extra eager to buy the new (licensed) sets.
That could also explain why no Elf sets have been released, even though it looked very much like they would. The Elf sets might have been planned for 2010, but once TLG knew there might come a LotR/Hobbit line later, decided to postpone the idea and released Kingdoms instead, a theme that barely has any resemblance to LotR.
And finally there's the rumors of Travellers Tales developing a Lego Hobbit game...
It just all seems to point to a Hobbit (and later possibly a LotR) line to me. If TLG wasn't planning LotR sets, I believe they would've released Elf sets in 2010 rather than Kingdoms, which (especially due to its apparent discontinuation in 2011) seems more like a sweetholder for Castle fans.