Blacktron Mafia: Day 2, Space Oddity

[Hinckley]

Well, if you are the godfather, you won't be the barometer--you'd just be claiming an obscure role to pass off your true scummy role. I'll also note that I cannot be the only one finding Clementine's wording strange. Not just the 'we' as Seamus has noted, but rather the "if I was the godfather" speak. I mean come on, that akin to saying: "well officer, I didn't murder that person, but if I did, and if I was the killer, I would have done it just like this..."

That just comes off as guilty language to me. Also why are you constantly referring to a godfather rather than the godfather (you are suggesting there is more than one)?

There is something more about the language tha' is bunching me knickers up. Something about the need for protection since the protector won't know yet who the vig or investigator are. Something I can't quite put my finger on. It is sound logic. The possibility of the protector and any other role connecting on Day Two is slim. I also don't think this would be a great Scum strategy to claim "backup". It could be quite easy to debunk once a Town block does start forming. For it to be a successful Scum claim Clementine would have to be on a team that has already role–copped the vig. Then if they are to kill the vig, he could claim to be the vig, but then the Scum kill would mysteriously disappear. So, although I disagree with the way she has handled it and her attitude, I am leaning Town on Clementine.

If she is telling the truth, then we lost three vanilla Townies last night.

Unless it is a gambit to get them all to claim to her...

[Hinckley]

I don't discount the small amount of evidence. I've not said much--I'll admit that.

As for the backup (and my statement about it, in regards to protecting)--it is not nearly as important of a role now because it has lost almost all of it's potential later significance. It has been exposed. Clementine will now always be suspect to the scum, because they will have to assume that after any of their kills (or any death that occurs) Clementine holds to potential to be a PR. He cannot trap any scum later on either, by claiming the role after a scum-PR-claim. The backup is not nearly as important if every assumes he's got a PR after every death.

Your language is a wee oaf too, though. You say the blocker is the protector and that the Scum will suspect Clementine. Why would anyone be a suspect to the Scum, exactly? I don't follow.

And everyone saying that Clementine revealing being the backup (assuming it's true) takes away the Scum's ability to false claim are every bit as silly as Clementine for thinking she is the barometer for all PR deaths. She is (if she is indeed the backup) the barometer for exactly one Town PR and the Scum will be free to false claim once she's announced to everyone that she has taken over a role.

[mostlytechnic]

I too have been trying to poke holes in Clementine's claim, since I have superior cyborg logic.

IF she were scum and making a ploy here, then...

1. One purpose would have to be to get townies to claim to her. That's easily avoided, as long as our power roles don't claim.

- Obviously though, that slows the building of the town block. So, the scum gain either way if she is scum. Either they get claims and have targets to kill or the town block is delayed. One counter to this - anyone planning to claim to Clem, TELL SOMEONE ELSE YOU'RE DOING IT. Preferably tell a couple others. That way, if you turn up dead, someone can point the finger at her. For this to work though, we pretty much need a few vanillas to claim to her (and tell others in PM) so that our PRs aren't outed by accidentally telling a scum they're claiming to her (that last part is assuming she's town obviously)

2. Another possible purpose, especially with her blatant asking for protection - assuming the scum have a watcher, they can now watch her to find the town's doctor tonight. Of course, this is true whether she is town or scum.

- Our doc has a big question tonight - do they protect Clem, risking their own outing to the scum, or stay away and risk the scum killing her... IF she's town and telling the truth though, then the doc and clem would survive tonight, tomorrow the scum kill the doc, and clem then becomes the doc.

3. If Clem is scum, how long can she hope to pull this off? She could be the godfather and therefore survive an investigation. Or the scum could have a tailor and be able to make her appear town. But at the very least, once a PR has claimed to someone else and then dies, she'll be outed if she can't replicate that role. Realistically though, she could survive pretty long before being caught. It's a pretty safe claim for a scummo to make.

Overall, after calculating the statistics and outcomes, I'm leaning truth on Clem. I just don't see the upside being worth it for the scum to make such a bold claim. However, I'm not confident in that enough (because I don't trust the scum to work with the same level of logic as I, since they're inferior beings [like the rest of you]) to make any claim to her (vanilla or PR, doesn't matter here). I'd recommend others not claim as well. The normal way to build a town block is for the investigator to clear a couple people and start talking to them. It works well and is the safest, most logical way to proceed.

Your language is a wee oaf too, though. You say the blocker is the protector and that the Scum will suspect Clementine. Why would anyone be a suspect to the Scum, exactly? I don't follow.

And everyone saying that Clementine revealing being the backup (assuming it's true) takes away the Scum's ability to false claim are every bit as silly as Clementine for thinking she is the barometer for all PR deaths. She is (if she is indeed the backup) the barometer for exactly one Town PR and the Scum will be free to false claim once she's announced to everyone that she has taken over a role.

She's a suspect to the scum in the sense that they never know when she'd take on a new ability instead of being vanilla. Not that it really matters to them - they'll just kill her whenever they get a chance.

And why do you assume she'll announce that she's taken over a role? I'm guessing her logic was that she'll build a town block and be able to confide in them once she's gotten a role, without making it public knowledge.

[Hinckley]

She's a suspect to the scum in the sense that they never know when she'd take on a new ability instead of being vanilla. Not that it really matters to them - they'll just kill her whenever they get a chance.

Weird, mate. I thought your name was 4 of 2. Must be all the drugs in my napper. Thanks for the answer, Rip Sewer.

And why do you assume she'll announce that she's taken over a role? I'm guessing her logic was that she'll build a town block and be able to confide in them once she's gotten a role, without making it public knowledge.

It's a sarcastic ending to my postulation. Since she blurted (seemingly) out of nowhere, her role. Sorry my humor is too sophisticated for you. I'll try to communicate at a more daft level, brother.

[Dannylonglegs]

While the members of Meeting Room 1 continued to bicker, Claw performed some of their daily tasks... like corpse removal.

With their job complete, Claw returned to the facility, ignoring the light show they left behind.

You may now vote. With 16 players, a majority of 9 is required to lynch.

[Hinckley]

With 16 players, a majority of 9 is required to lynch.

I'm so chuffed someone did the arithmetic for me.

[CMP]

Thanks for the distracting us for the first 24 hours of the day with your claim, Clementine.

I also don't think this would be a great Scum strategy to claim "backup". It could be quite easy to debunk once a Town block does start forming. For it to be a successful Scum claim Clementine would have to be on a team that has already role–copped the vig. Then if they are to kill the vig, he could claim to be the vig, but then the Scum kill would mysteriously disappear. So, although I disagree with the way she has handled it and her attitude, I am leaning Town on Clementine.

Unfortunate as it is, I'm feeling like Clem is town as well. Doing a poor job of handling her role, and yet still probably town. Her logic isn't really sound, but that doesn't mean it appears to be a scum trick.

Anyway....

I'm gonna Vote: Claw (TheLazyChicken).

3 townies down?!

Doctor Wen was town as I'm pretty sure everyone was expecting.

Clark and Ender were also townies.

Two kills... Possibly a town kill and a scum kill? It might also be a neautral kill as in one of my past lives.

I'm curious to why they killed Ender, I'm pretty sure he was suspicious of Minga, maybe Minga had something to do with this?

Maybe someone was going to kill Seamus but they got blocked or Seamus got protected.

Fluff, pointless speculation about kills, a somewhat valid but kind of...I don't know, empty point. It's day one, the scum probably aren't concerned with killing people over random day one suspicions.

Accuses Minga of being quick to agree with the strong (Seamus).

Minga isn't sure what he means.

He replies saying that Minga is basically agreeing with what Seamus says. This could mean that Minga is agreeing with Seamus so she can appear as a townie.

This is true but agreeing isn't always the best tactic, adding on to the accusstions makes the town stronger. Agreeing with others all the time may get you lynched... This is based off of one of my previous lives.

This is true as well. In another previous live I had as a scum, a tactic I was told to use was to buddy up with a townie to make myself look townier. Minga could've been doing this and buddying up with Seamus to look townier.

Okay, so he suspects Minga. And assumes....

You shouldn't have claimed this early yet, unless you were about to get lynched. By the time you might get lynched I think a person could be confirmed town already so you can claim to whoever that person is. Probably Seamus since he always starts the town block when he's town, he is a good candidate for the investigating first.

.....Seamus is town.....

To be honest, I don't even know how you would claim, if a town block got formed, then claim to Seamus, he would eventually be caught as scum if a lot of power roles die. Then you'll know for sure he's the godfather.

....three different times.

We know Bock, Seamus, Diamond, Hannah, Harriet, Laura, Dave, Paul, 'Rip' and Nathan all voted for Doctor Wen. Ender did too but he's confirmed town.

Those who voted for Clementine were me, Minga, Zip Zop, and Vasquez, so did Clark and Doctor Wen but they're already confirmed to be town.

Then 4 of 2 and Clementine placed individual votes.

Scum like to spread their votes so with 19 players I suspect at least 4 scum members. Meaning 2 of them could be in Clementine bandwagon while the other 2 could be in the Dr. Wen bandwagon unless there was only 1 scummo in one bandwagon and 2 scummos in the other, this would mean that either 4 of 2 or Clementine could also be scum.

So here's what Claw calls a vote analysis.

Okay. Here's Minga's vote analysis (just of the Wen bandwagon for now).

11 votes for Doctor Wen (Xenophobic Monoxide) (Mediumsnowman, Hinckley, Tariq, Bob, Captain Nemo, TinyPiesRUs, CallMePie, Fhomess, Piratedave84, Jluck, Ranger of the Forest)

First vote on Wen was Harriet. She had previously been extremely impatient for voting to start and had stated point blank that Dr. Wen was scum. Seamus soon followed, citing Wen's suspicious behaviour as his reason for voting; he had previously expressed his suspicion. Laura and Bock were next; both provided limited reasoning other than "his posts are suspicious". After two votes on Clementine, Rip then followed, in a similar fashion to the previous two votes. After a further two votes on Clementine, Nathan chimes in, pointing out some discrepancies in Wen's posts and using them as a basis for his vote. This is quickly followed by Diamond, who earlier called out Wen's contradictions. Major Dave placed the next vote, using Nathan's points as his basis for voting. And Paul votes as well, once again providing little reasoning or explanation other than "he's scummy". Ender (confirmed town) hammered the lynch. And then Hannah got her vote in, while saying that she wished she didn't have to.

Overall, Minga thinks that the majority of the Wen vote was comprised of bandwagon-y, sheepy votes which just stacked up and spelled Wen's doom. Only Diamond and Nathan actually made good cases against Wen, while Seamus was the first to call him out for his scummy posting. The votes which look the scummiest to Minga are Harriet, Laura, Rip and Paul's votes, simply because of the lack of reasoning and mindless bandwagoning.

I bet if Clementine had defended himself Laura would have said "Ping, you're SO scummy for defending yourself!" And I do think Clementine has a point about Rip, whether it was deflection or not.

Okay, here goes the Clementine wagon analysis:

6 votes for Clementine Lister (Lind Whisperer): (Chromeknight, Sir Stig, Xenophobic Monoxide, Lazychicken, Lady K, Dragonfire)

After voting opened, Harriet, Seamus, Laura and Bock put down votes on Wen in succession. Clark (confirmed town) was the first to vote for Clem, breaking the pattern. His reasoning was based on Clem's odd comments about Seamus being the godfather. Half an hour later, Zipzup votes, citing Clark's post as his reasoning for the vote. Like Minga, he said that if Wen was scum it was very foul play indeed. After Rip's vote for Wen, Wen himself then votes Clementine. Not much can be gained from this as we know Wen was town and he was basically voting to save himself. About twenty minutes after Wen's vote, Claw votes for Clementine. His reasons are that she is suspecting too many people on Day One. and is trying to spread votes and cause a no lynch (He also agrees with Zipzup on the foul play theory). Then there's quite a long gap. Two more votes on Wen, a couple of people saying they think both lynchees are town, and then Clem's vote on Harriet. Vasquez makes her vote at this point. She cites multiple reasons, including Clem's calling people out for posting fluff, going after newbies, making scummy comments about Seamus being the godfather, and trying to look active and helpful. Three minutes later, Minga votes for Clementine too. Minga was last online before voting opened, and Minga was busy reading the thread and deciding who to vote for when Vasquez voted. Minga didn't see Vasquez's post until she herself had hit post. Minga voted for Clementine because of metagame reasons (read the voting post) and the reasons she had stated earlier in the day. This vote was the last vote on Clementine.

Honestly, in Minga's opinion if there is scum on the wagon, it is probably Claw. Vasquez brought up some solid points against Clementine; Zipzup made a good point advocating Wen's towniness, Clark and Wen have died and flipped town, and Minga knows she is town too. Claw's reasons don't make much sense. Calling four people out on Day One is good - it provides discussion and gets people talking. Besides, did Claw seriously think that Clementine could influence the entire town into spreading their votes? Furthermore, Claw was parroting others' theories. Not that I outright scumread him, but he is the likeliest scum on the Clementine wagon. I must say though, his vote was far townier than half of the Wen votes.

And here's what his number one suspect puts forward, quite possibly the only really constructive thing I've seen today. Incidentally I agree with Minga's conclusion.

Anyone have any thoughts on this or any other suspects they want to bring up?

I kind of wanted to see if Claw was going to follow through on his suspicions of Minga but we need to get some real discussion rolling, I don't think debating for Clem for the rest of the day will help us reach a conclusive lynch.

[MagPiesRUs]

I suspected Dr. Wen, even calling him scummy yesterday. I was honestly surprised to see him flip town today.

Captain Nemo is slightly pinging me. I don't have a lot of evidence... it's just a gut feeling.

Captain Nemo said

I think Clementine really is the backup and he has the towns best interest at heart. Unless there's someone else that's better to protect (ie a first-tier PR claims)why would you NOT "spend effort protecting him?" A backup is important as at some point we'll accidently lynch a PR or the scum/SK will get lucky and kill one. This post seemed... weird to me at best.

I've been reading, and I've got my suspicions. I think I'll keep me close to the chest for now though. Hey, first game, just don't know who to trust...

Agreed. Harriet, you seemed to imply you had more than one suspect yesterday, not just Dr Xen. Unless you suspected Rip too, but from what you said it sounds like she only started pinging you today.

This is what you said yesterday:

I've been reading, and I've got my suspicions. I think I'll keep me close to the chest for now though. Hey, first game, just don't know who to trust...

Even though also you said this a few hours earlier:

To me, Xen immediately jumps out as scummy, for the same reasons as several have stated above. Why else would he strongly disagree with the possibility of Hinckley being scum? Certainly only stems from belonging to the scum team...

You must have had another suspicion you were keeping close to the chest, since you'd already raised your concerns about Dr Wen.

I'm so chuffed someone did the arithmetic for me.

Hey, I always did that back when I was working in the Ragna Rocks! Ungrateful feh feh pi goh...

[mediumsnowman]

Rip pinged me a little bit yesterday as well due to a his only posts being a little bit of fluff. Yesterday my gut suspected mostlytechnic, but nothing has come of it. I've got no evidence, so I was hesitant to post it. I'm about to go to bed, and I'll elaborate a little more in the morning.

[Hinckley]

Rip pinged me a little bit yesterday as well due to a his only posts being a little bit of fluff. Yesterday my gut suspected mostlytechnic, but nothing has come of it. I've got no evidence, so I was hesitant to post it.

This is a different explanation from what you told us yesterday for why you didn't post your suspicions.

[Hinckley]

Fluff, pointless speculation about kills, a somewhat valid but kind of...I don't know, empty point. It's day one, the scum probably aren't concerned with killing people over random day one suspicions.

I admit to finding Claw's way of expressing themselves confounding on a metagaming basis, but I agree with your assessment. Claw's statement have rubbed me against the grain at least a wee bit, dudes...

Doctor Wen was town as I'm pretty sure everyone was expecting.

I still don't like this. Claw, if you reckon everyone was expecting it, why aren't you questioning those who voted for him? Why would you be OK with people voting for him who didn't think he was Scum?

I'm curious to why they killed Ender, I'm pretty sure he was suspicious of Minga, maybe Minga had something to do with this?

I really didn't like this when I read it and I couldn't pinpoint why. Is this what the Scum chose to kill Ender for? To incriminate Minga? This is a sloppy way to incriminate someone, if so but.

Maybe someone was going to kill Seamus but they got blocked or Seamus got protected.

Or I'm Scum and was blocked. Where's that possibility?

I too have been trying to poke holes in Clementine's claim, since I have superior cyborg logic.

IF she were scum and making a ploy here, then...

1. One purpose would have to be to get townies to claim to her. That's easily avoided, as long as our power roles don't claim.

- Obviously though, that slows the building of the town block. So, the scum gain either way if she is scum. Either they get claims and have targets to kill or the town block is delayed. One counter to this - anyone planning to claim to Clem, TELL SOMEONE ELSE YOU'RE DOING IT. Preferably tell a couple others. That way, if you turn up dead, someone can point the finger at her. For this to work though, we pretty much need a few vanillas to claim to her (and tell others in PM) so that our PRs aren't outed by accidentally telling a scum they're claiming to her (that last part is assuming she's town obviously)

2. Another possible purpose, especially with her blatant asking for protection - assuming the scum have a watcher, they can now watch her to find the town's doctor tonight. Of course, this is true whether she is town or scum.

- Our doc has a big question tonight - do they protect Clem, risking their own outing to the scum, or stay away and risk the scum killing her... IF she's town and telling the truth though, then the doc and clem would survive tonight, tomorrow the scum kill the doc, and clem then becomes the doc.

3. If Clem is scum, how long can she hope to pull this off? She could be the godfather and therefore survive an investigation. Or the scum could have a tailor and be able to make her appear town. But at the very least, once a PR has claimed to someone else and then dies, she'll be outed if she can't replicate that role. Realistically though, she could survive pretty long before being caught. It's a pretty safe claim for a scummo to make.

Overall, after calculating the statistics and outcomes, I'm leaning truth on Clem. I just don't see the upside being worth it for the scum to make such a bold claim. However, I'm not confident in that enough (because I don't trust the scum to work with the same level of logic as I, since they're inferior beings [like the rest of you]) to make any claim to her (vanilla or PR, doesn't matter here). I'd recommend others not claim as well. The normal way to build a town block is for the investigator to clear a couple people and start talking to them. It works well and is the safest, most logical way to proceed.

I agree with this analysis, 4 of 2. However, irrelevant as it is, I have never known Scum to have a watcher. But, what I find odd about this analysis is that Clementine started yesterday by flipping out that 4 of 2 was trying to get people to claim to me. But now 4 of 2 seems to be encouraging people to claim to her? And have some lie about it? This sounds all very difficult to manage. But then he reverses and tells us all not to claim to Clem...

[Bob]

I'm not entirely sold on Clementine, but that can wait. I am, however, unsure about someone else:

I suspected Dr. Wen, even calling him scummy yesterday. I was honestly surprised to see him flip town today.

Captain Nemo is slightly pinging me. I don't have a lot of evidence... it's just a gut feeling.

I think Clementine really is the backup and he has the towns best interest at heart. Unless there's someone else that's better to protect (ie a first-tier PR claims)why would you NOT "spend effort protecting him?" A backup is important as at some point we'll accidently lynch a PR or the scum/SK will get lucky and kill one. This post seemed... weird to me at best.

As I think Lind pointed out, he's also been rather quiet and when he does post it's mostly fluff, with the exception of the above post I just quoted.

Don't freak out on me... I could very well be wrong, but it's a gut feeling.

In the first part of this post, Harriet addresses who is on her scum list. She says that she thought that Dr. Wen (who is dead and confirmed town???) was scummy and that she also suspects Rip Sewer. She then goes off and says that Clementine should absolutely be protected. She thinks that Rip is suspicious because he doesn't think Clementine should be protected and because he's "posting fluff." Then came this later:

Rip pinged me a little bit yesterday as well due to a his only posts being a little bit of fluff. Yesterday my gut suspected mostlytechnic, but nothing has come of it. I've got no evidence, so I was hesitant to post it. I'm about to go to bed, and I'll elaborate a little more in the morning.

So, you have no evidence, yet you still suspect Rip? I thought your evidence was that he's posting fluff? Unless you just made that up as an excuse to accuse someone. Can you find any fluffy posts? Why don't you think 4 of 2 is suspicious anymore? Last I checked, she's still alive and not a cleared townie. It's okay to have gut suspicions sometimes, but if you're bringing them out into the open, it's probably a good idea to have some sort of evidence to back it up immediately instead of "I'll post more tomorrow!"

In another instance, there was this exchange:

I've been reading through some older games and the MafiaWiki, and I seem to keep forgetting I can win even if I die. That's mostly why I was afraid of getting killed Night 1.

Hate to get preachy here, but self preservation isn’t as important as the whole town coming up on top at the end. Or scum in your case, I suppose

Is this an accusation? I said I kept forgetting I could win even if I die. If I'm killed, and we still catch all the Blacktron, I still am among the winners, as I discovered during my reading. I came into Day 1 thinking about self-preservation, but after reading the wiki and older games, I have realized it is not as important as I first thought. Where is the confusion?

Hannah calls Harriet out for self-preservation and for not wanting to die, which is why she didn't post her scum list yesterday (as Seamus pointed out, this is a different explanation as to why she didn't) In response, Harriet goes on the defensive immediately, instantly suggesting it's an accusation. She claims to have not been aware that she wins with the entire town even if she does die, which is a bit ludicrous because it's been one of the established mafia rules for the past two or more years and anyone reading just the first post of any conclusion thread can see this.

It's all just a bit too scummy for my tastes. Her non-accusations (including seemingly adding a dead confirmed townie to her list), her retracting other accusations for no discernible reason, her blindingly trusting Clementine and defending her claims, changing her explanation as to why she's not posting her suspect list, and her being concerned about self-preservation all ping me in a major way.

Vote: Harriet Stomper (mediumsnowman)

I look forward to reading your defense and your explanations in regards to your scum list that you promised you'd post today.

[TheLazyChicken]

Fluff, pointless speculation about kills, a somewhat valid but kind of...I don't know, empty point. It's day one, the scum probably aren't concerned with killing people over random day one suspicions.

They could be concerned, at first I thought of Minga being scum but later on I changed my mind about her, I don't think the scum would make it entirely obvious. Maybe they tried to frame her...? I still have a gut feeling she's scum though.

Okay, so he suspects Minga. And assumes....

.....Seamus is town.....

....three different times.

I don't suspect her as much anymore, on the other hand my gut does.

Not exactly, I'm saying that he should probably be investigated if he isn't already. Then when he's confirmed to be town then claim to him.

If he's confirmed scum then don't claim to him, claim to someone else I guess or to the group as a whole.

So here's what Claw calls a vote analysis.

Oh that wasn't intended to be a vote analysis, just my thoughts on the votes from yesterday.

[mostlytechnic]

I agree with this analysis, 4 of 2. However, irrelevant as it is, I have never known Scum to have a watcher. But, what I find odd about this analysis is that Clementine started yesterday by flipping out that 4 of 2 was trying to get people to claim to me. But now 4 of 2 seems to be encouraging people to claim to her? And have some lie about it? This sounds all very difficult to manage. But then he reverses and tells us all not to claim to Clem...

Humans need to learn to read. I never said to claim. In fact, I said specifically NOT to claim to Clem. Nor did I say to lie. What I said about possibly claiming was that one possible way to use Clem (assuming for the moment that she's town) would be for people to claim to her to immediately get the town block solidly going. However, since we do not know for sure she's town, anyone claiming would need to tell others they're doing it (not what their role is, just that they're making a claim to Clem). Then if they turn up dead, she is immediately suspicious. For this to work though, we'd need a few vanillas to make claims to her as well, in case the people being told are scum.

Let me put it this way for you. Person A wants to claim to Clem. They tell Person B and Person C that they're doing this, so that B and C can tell the rest about the claim being made in the event of Person A's overnight death. However, A does not know that B and C are town! So to prevent the scum from learning who has PRs through B or C, we'd need vanillas also to do this process.

Yes, it'd be a lot of info flying around, but it's not like it's a stumpy code system or anything But again, I reiterate, I do not recommend claiming.

And as for scum watchers, you may not have seen it, but the unofficial reference (mafiascum wiki) states that watchers can be either alignment: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Watcher

[Captain Nemo]

Weird, mate. I thought your name was 4 of 2. Must be all the drugs in my napper. Thanks for the answer, Rip Sewer.

Wouldn't put it past the drugs. As for 'suspect', I meant--as I wrote following that word actually... "Clementine will now always be suspect to the scum, because they will have to assume that after any of their kills (or any death that occurs) Clementine holds to potential to be a PR." So yes, 4 of 2 was correct in its clarification. You should lay off that stuff man.

(in regards to Harriet)

So, you have no evidence, yet you still suspect Rip? I thought your evidence was that he's posting fluff? Unless you just made that up as an excuse to accuse someone. Can you find any fluffy posts? Why don't you think 4 of 2 is suspicious anymore? Last I checked, she's still alive and not a cleared townie. It's okay to have gut suspicions sometimes, but if you're bringing them out into the open, it's probably a good idea to have some sort of evidence to back it up immediately instead of "I'll post more tomorrow!"

I wouldn't mind some evidence either Harriet. I'd prefer to not be hanged by your gut--intestines make terrible nooses.

If he's confirmed scum then don't claim to him, claim to someone else I guess or to the group as a whole.

Don't claim to confirmed Scum. Got it!

And people say I post fluff!

As for voting--I'm not ready yet. I don't trust Clementine honestly, and I didn't trust her yesterday either. But I also don't think it's in the best town interest to vote for her now, even if her claim is iffy in my eyes. I want to see that pan out a bit more (actually come to think of it, I'm still waiting for her to answer some of my concerns I posted many hours ago now...) so I avoid making a hasty decision. I'm going to re-read the past day(s); I have lots of gut feelings, and maybe on a second thorough read that gut feeling may turn into vote-able evidence.

[mostlytechnic]

Yes, claim to the person I have feared and suspect/ed to be a Godfather. Brilliant suggestion.

4 of 2 would like to do some analysis of Clementine's focus on Seamus potentially being the godfather, since it's been such a big part of the discussion for 2 days....

First, all roles are completely random. That means initially, there was a 5.2632% chance that Seamus was the godfather. The same odds as anyone else. Although since presumably Clem would know that she isn't the godfather (again, thinking through things from her viewpoint and assuming that she's town) then the odds of Seamus being godfather was slightly higher at 5.5556%.

Coming into day 2, with 3 townies gone, the odds shifted to 6.6667%. Still low. So from a strictly odds standpoint. Clem's concern about Seamus being the godfather seems obsessive and illogical. However, if we go back to her very early posts:

Hinckley always gets investigated first. Tradition of the game. Scum need to know town PRs. Godfathers don't turn up as scum. So, if Technic(as a goon) tricks newbies and directs traffic towards him(Hinckley as Godfather), even at the cost of getting killed, the scum team gets /invaluable/ information - while Hinckley won't ever come up as scum /because he's a Godfather/ - meaning he can sit and run the game.)

... she wasn't claiming it was a logical concern, she was looking (if I'm understanding her right) at a worst-case scenario and then (in my opinion) being overly worried about it. Yes, Seamus as godfather would be a very tough scum team to beat. However, as I stated above, that's a low chance. Clem, if you have any basis to actually SUSPECT Seamus, please bring it out to us for analysis. I think you're just worried in your gut as you humans do (side note: I'm SO glad that my gut was removed as part of my cyborgization!) and it's time to move on. No one is saying you have to trust Seamus. But constantly acting AS IF HE IS the godfather with no basis is preventing more logical thought.

And it seems that Clem's main concern was newbies thinking Seamus was clear from an investigator (how would they know that? Except for the investigator themselves, no one knows what the investigator learned) and then claiming to him. I think we have made it pretty clear that claiming this early to anyone is foolish. Hopefully the newbies have heard that message and no one is doing night 1 claims to Seamus... or anyone else! Wait till you have solid reason to trust someone, or a desperate situation (like you're about to be lynched... if you're about to be lynched, CLAIM IN PUBLIC so we don't repeat the mistakes of Ragnarok and lose the vig in the first lynch without knowing it!), before claiming.

[mediumsnowman]

My full suspicious list is as follows:

Xenophobic Monoxide - (He's dead now though, and confirmed town. He was acting really scummy yesterday and I was legitimately surprised to see him flip town. )

Captain Nemo - (Fluff, and his strange monologue about NOT protecting Clem. See one of my earlier posts)

Mostlytechnic - (This was mostly just Day 1, when his opening comments (later he said they were supposed to be jokes) seemed weird to me. My suspicions of him have subsided since then as going back through his posts and responses can't find anything overly suspicious.)

fhomess - I noticed he hasn't posted much and looked back at all his posts. In a full 1 1/2 days of mafia... he has posted a whopping 3 times. Getting under the radar much?

I was afraid of getting scum-killed and most of my suspicions yesterday didn't have a lot of evidence behind them. To prepare for my first game I have been reading a lot, and I kept forgetting I can win even if I'm dead. I was worried about self-preservation yesterday; when I was prodded about it I was confused as I didn't know why wanting to survive (to win, as I mistakenly understood) would be considered scummy. My reading led to my realization that surviving isn't as important as I thought. (Unless of course you're a Survivor )

I defended Clementine because I believe her claim. It would be too complicated a role for a scummo to fake for anything more than a day or two. Unless a better candidate for protection emerges, why wouldn't we want to protect Clementine? She may not have handled the claim in the best way possible, but eventually a PR will die and Clementine will be important. If we let the scum have the opportunity to kill Clementine tonight, we lose a rather important role.

For now I will Vote: Major Dave (fhomess)

I am interested in how he will respond. Like I said in my suspicions list, he really is flying under the radar.

[Tariq j]

If we're talking about players flying under the radar then Paul, certainly comes into this, he's probably been less active than Major Dave, if he does get round to reading this it will be interesting to see what he has to say.

[mostlytechnic]

I defended Clementine because I believe her claim. It would be too complicated a role for a scummo to fake for anything more than a day or two. Unless a better candidate for protection emerges, why wouldn't we want to protect Clementine? She may not have handled the claim in the best way possible, but eventually a PR will die and Clementine will be important. If we let the scum have the opportunity to kill Clementine tonight, we lose a rather important role.

I agree that defending Clem tonight makes sense, as long as the protector doesn't know for certain any other PRs. Which I'd be amazed if they did, since it's only day 2. However, I disagree that it would be too complicated or risky of a scum ploy. It's a weird role, so easy to make up the details (ie only a backup for certain PRs, not all of them, etc) to fit your needs. Also, how would it get caught? For a lie to get caught, first a PR has to die WHILE BEING KNOWN by others, and then at least another day to pass to check Clem's night actions to see if she does whatever that role was. And some roles are impossible to test - let's say there was a full-blown town block coordinating things and the protector dies. And for arguments' sake here, Clem's in the block and actually scum. So she's assigned to protect Player X - the scum just don't kill player X that night! And ta da, she's not caught! Or if the vig dies and she becomes vig, she has the scum killer kill whoever the block chooses, and then we're mysteriously missing a kill but her assigned person is indeed dead, so there's explanations.

TL;DR: I don't think backup would be a terrible choice of fake role for a scum to claim.

If we're talking about players flying under the radar then Paul, certainly comes into this, he's probably been less active than Major Dave, if he does get round to reading this it will be interesting to see what he has to say.

Go check your math - both Paul and Dave posted 3 times in day 1. Dave's posted zero today, while Paul did at least stop in once. But yes, both are WAY too quiet.

[Hinckley]

Humans need to learn to read. I never said to claim. In fact, I said specifically NOT to claim to Clem. Nor did I say to lie. What I said about possibly claiming was that one possible way to use Clem (assuming for the moment that she's town) would be for people to claim to her to immediately get the town block solidly going. However, since we do not know for sure she's town, anyone claiming would need to tell others they're doing it (not what their role is, just that they're making a claim to Clem). Then if they turn up dead, she is immediately suspicious. For this to work though, we'd need a few vanillas to make claims to her as well, in case the people being told are scum.

Let me put it this way for you. Person A wants to claim to Clem. They tell Person B and Person C that they're doing this, so that B and C can tell the rest about the claim being made in the event of Person A's overnight death. However, A does not know that B and C are town! So to prevent the scum from learning who has PRs through B or C, we'd need vanillas also to do this process.

Yes, it'd be a lot of info flying around, but it's not like it's a stumpy code system or anything But again, I reiterate, I do not recommend claiming.

And as for scum watchers, you may not have seen it, but the unofficial reference (mafiascum wiki) states that watchers can be either alignment: http://wiki.mafiascu...p?title=Watcher

Whoa man, like I didn't require the repetition. It's written down I could've gone back and read it. I also didn't need the in–depth scenario. It made sense both times and looks the same both times: Don't claim to Clem, but here's a highly detailed plan if we want to all claim to Clem.

Talk about being confusing to noobs. Not to mention your plan requires people to lie which is another good place for Scum to hide. "I claimed to Clem with a false roleclaim like I was told". And two other people would be able to backup that false claiming was part of the plan.

This seems like you're trying to confuse.

[mostlytechnic]

Whoa man, like I didn't require the repetition. It's written down I could've gone back and read it. I also didn't need the in–depth scenario. It made sense both times and looks the same both times: Don't claim to Clem, but here's a highly detailed plan if we want to all claim to Clem.

Talk about being confusing to noobs. Not to mention your plan requires people to lie which is another good place for Scum to hide. "I claimed to Clem with a false roleclaim like I was told". And two other people would be able to backup that false claiming was part of the plan.

No, I was stating it differently since you apparently didn't understand the first time.

And I NEVER SAID TO LIE. In fact, in the post you quoted I specifically said NOT to lie. I meant that IF people were going to claim (again, I say not to!) then some of our legitimate vanillas would need to claim vanilla to Clem as well, so that when both PRs and vanillas tell OTHER PEOPLE that they claimed to clem it doesn't give away who the PRs are.

But again, this is a bad idea that I do not recommend. I was originally making a hypothetical and apparently made the mistake of trying to clarify. Neither time did I want people to do it. Personally I'm leaning town on Clem but not enough to claim anything (PR, pranks, vanilla, anything!) to her. Ditto for you - I'm leaning town on you, but I'm not claiming anything to you either.

[Lind Whisperer]

I need to take care of some things in real life before I can respond to everything else, but:

And some roles are impossible to test - let's say there was a full-blown town block coordinating things and the protector dies. And for arguments' sake here, Clem's in the block and actually scum. So she's assigned to protect Player X - the scum just don't kill player X that night!

Actually, this is "best-case" scenario if I was scum. If I was scum, and I was faking protector, I have no control over any possible SKs. If they attacked, I couldn't fake protection, or prevent them from killing. (Same for vig.)

(I suppose, in such a case, I could try and claim that there had been a scum re-director, but it would be a flimsy defense at best.

[Hinckley]

Go check your math - both Paul and Dave posted 3 times in day 1. Dave's posted zero today, while Paul did at least stop in once. But yes, both are WAY too quiet.

Let's be equal opportunity about those flying under the radar. Those posting low on both days (so far) are:

Bock Pathos

Diamond Dodd

Hannah Ford

Laura Starbucks

Nathan Mallard

Paul Harkonnen

Rip Sewer

Vazquez Rodriguez

Rip and Diamond have made the most memorable contributions from their low number of posts. The others blend in which is always where some of the Scum try to end up, in my recent memory, the most dangerous and hardest to catch. Because somebody will make an accurate accusation and they will be able to easily explain it away since there isn't a lot of content to base a stronger case off of. I know that's a lot of people but those are the ones I see as under the radar currently.

Zipzop could be there as well if it weren't for his slightly higher post content from Day One.

No, I was stating it differently since you apparently didn't understand the first time.

And I NEVER SAID TO LIE. In fact, in the post you quoted I specifically said NOT to lie. I meant that IF people were going to claim (again, I say not to!) then some of our legitimate vanillas would need to claim vanilla to Clem as well, so that when both PRs and vanillas tell OTHER PEOPLE that they claimed to clem it doesn't give away who the PRs are.

But again, this is a bad idea that I do not recommend. I was originally making a hypothetical and apparently made the mistake of trying to clarify. Neither time did I want people to do it. Personally I'm leaning town on Clem but not enough to claim anything (PR, pranks, vanilla, anything!) to her. Ditto for you - I'm leaning town on you, but I'm not claiming anything to you either.

I understood it well the first time. Except for the part about vanillas claiming vanilla. But what are people supposed to say to others? "I'm claiming to Clem" but not take the extra safety of saying what the claim is? If people were to claim and tell two other people would they just say "I'm claiming to Clem" to the other two people. And yes, I still understand what a bad idea you're saying what you're giving us detailed instructions to follow is.

Forgive me for metagaming but the last time you came up with an elaborate plan for the Town you were Scum trying to confuse us.

[mostlytechnic]

I need to take care of some things in real life before I can respond to everything else, but:Actually, this is "best-case" scenario if I was scum. If I was scum, and I was faking protector, I have no control over any possible SKs. If they attacked, I couldn't fake protection, or prevent them from killing. (Same for vig.)

(I suppose, in such a case, I could try and claim that there had been a scum re-director, but it would be a flimsy defense at best.

But what are the odds that the SK would kill the person you're supposed to protect? Less than 10%, so you'd have good shot at being safe. Just saying...

Forgive me for metagaming but the last time you came up with an elaborate plan for the Town you were Scum trying to confuse us.

Ah, but in that case I was pushing people to actually do it, not thinking out loud about how something could possibly work and then blatantly saying NOT to do it because it's a bad idea.

[Hinckley]

Ah, but in that case I was pushing people to actually do it, not thinking out loud about how something could possibly work and then blatantly saying NOT to do it because it's a bad idea.

Ah, but that defense is as circumstantial as my suspicion. So... carry on, then.