DrFrankenstein
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Everything posted by DrFrankenstein
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This was more than 1 year ago and I haven't experienced any issues with S@H. But I rummaged through my eBay history and found the seller's account. He is no longer registered, but his feedback history is quite extensive (spanning 6 years) and looks clean. I don't think that someone paying with stolen cards would last long on eBay. So, chances are that this transaction was legitimate in some weird way. In any case, in the future, I will think twice before purchasing a set that is still at S@H from not well known retailers now that I am aware of these scams.
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That sucks. They should ship internationally to countries that don't have a S@H service or ship to freight forwarding services for verified customers. It's not fair that fans living outside the S@H countries should suffer because of the scammers. Speaking of which, I once ordered a new set through BL or eBay (don't remember which one) because the seller was offering it at a lower price than S@H with shipping and all. One week later the set showed up shipped from S@H to my surprise. Nobody ever contacted me to follow up on that set from S@H, but now I wonder if I wasn't used as part of a scam scheme. Do you know if S@H has a tier pricing schema for different customers (i.e. they would sell a set at discounts to high volume customers) that could explain this?
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I second the motion. Moving to the new thread.
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Agreed. This would be a great idea. In fact, that's what I thought when they announced the challenge - that they would produce an add-on kit. After this influx of interest in 41999, I am sure that they will reconsider this option. It's a no-brainer win-win for them. Yes, we saw examples of numbers issued out of order that break the theory that the numbers are produced sequentially from a single source. Thus, they are not a reliable metric for sales volumes and such.
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@Sinner, thank you for the data. Here is the merged dataset: 2013-08-01 451751900 2013-06-01 365278400 2013-02-19 360072000 2013-01-01 335549900 2012-12-08 287824800 2012-10-22 253359400 2012-10-17 278239500 2012-10-01 198577900 2012-08-05 216167500 2012-05-04 213141300 2012-05-03 210707400 2012-04-27 210315600 2012-04-25 209486900 2012-04-25 209484100 2012-04-23 208735800 2012-04-06 202672500 2012-03-20 193855700 2012-03-02 143919300 2011-12-08 140114400 2011-10-08 130720400 2011-08-24 117057300 2011-08-13 117904900 Now, here is what a plot of the order number values over time looks like (approximately 24 months range): To be honest, now that I see the plot, I don't see anything interesting in terms of a pattern. I was hoping of something to correlate to seasons, promotions, etc. Yes, the numbers are trending up in general, but there are some red flags such as occasional decreases in the time series (shouldn't happen in theory - it's anachronism). The only thing I can deduce from this is that over the past 12 months the numbers have been growing at almost twice the rate of the preceding 12 months as a whole. I also suspect that if more data becomes available (say, we increase the resolution by 5x), we will see an even less smooth line (perhaps it will be even more staircase "jumpy").
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I am not shy about opening my sets and assembling the models to study them. Still, I am careful about preserving everything (boxes, booklets, parts) in as close to new condition as possible. This includes storing everything in dark, dry, low-dust environment with load-bearing elements (tires, springs, etc) detached from the models. I keep the models wrapped in plastic bags so as to make sure they remain dust-free. Normally, I apply the stickers, but for the 41999, I think I will put the sticker sheet in a ziplock bag and preserve it. I think this model will look great even without the stickers.
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Ok, here are the reported order numbers and time the order was placed (all adjusted to GMT): 2013-08-01T04:55 Y422403xxx 2013-08-01T04:50 Y4517519xx 2013-08-01T04:40 Y4511537xx 2013-07-31T23:40 Y4516336xx 2013-07-31T23:00 Y451630xxx 2013-07-31T22:37 Y4516343xx Clearly, the order numbers don't line up with the timestamps (even within the same regions). Perhaps if examined longitudinally (over a period of months and years) they would make more sense. Oh well...
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Wow... that's just about 500,000 orders in 30 minutes or so (assuming you placed your order at around 11:25 EST). Hmm. Doesn't seem realistic that they would crank so many orders in the USA alone in such a short period of time (even under the circumstances). Perhaps these order numbers are global (i.e. the ordering system is the same across the entire S@H system)?
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Order shipped from S@H USA with hot dog stand freebee. Got a FedEx tracking number at hand. Mission complete. Glad I managed to place my order shortly before midnight (approximately 2350GMT-5) My order number is Y45175194x (last digit replaced with x). Would be interesting to get a few other data points to estimate the rate of order accumulation between the time they released 41999 and when it went out of stock (approximately 0200GMT-5, I guess). Edit: Just pulled my entire order history with S@H USA. If these numbers are anything to go by, it seems like the sales volume is trending up. Anyone else want to share? We could make an interesting graph out of it with a few more datapoints and see how it correlates with promotions, etc: 2013-08-01 Y4517519xx 2012-10-17 Y2782395xx 2012-10-01 Y1985779xx 2012-03-20 Y1938557xx 2012-03-02 Y1439193xx 2011-10-08 Y1307204xx 2011-08-24 Y1170573xx
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Not to sound negative, but I doubt that LEGO will re-release this set over the next months. Just think about it - why in the world would they mass produce a set which is all but guaranteed to annihilate the the sales of the 9398 Crawler? Not to speak that at the current price levels the profit margins on 41999 must be significantly lower than on 9398 because of all the exclusive parts and hand-packaging. 41999 is a great marketing tool for Technic helping to stir up interest in the brand, but that's where the buck ends, I think.
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The hunt for the elusive 91444 reminds me of the "Jingle All the Way" movie from the 90s with Arnold chasing after an exclusive toy. Never thought I would be living the movie for real. Happy times
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Hard to tell. Will be interesting to see how it will play out. Yay. Got my confirmation email. Order confirmed.
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All right! Here's another proud owner of 41999. Well, in theory, at least... no official email confirmation yet. Anyone interested in purchasing my 9398?
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From S@H:
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Unimog Stiff Steering
DrFrankenstein replied to doug72's topic in LEGO Technic, Mindstorms, Model Team and Scale Modeling
I did a similar fix to yours but with 5L and 6L axles. Also, I removed the 1/2 pins restricting the steering radius. Very happy with the overall result. Here are the parts that I removed from the model: Here are the parts that I added (notice the "custom" 5.25 axle that I produced through filing a regular 5.5 axle): Here is the comparison between my filed 5.25 axle and the original 5.5 axle: Here is what the mod looks like: Notice how the front-left axle has no bush at the top and sticks slightly on the bottom to avoid a collision with the panhard rod attachment.