Black Falcon

According to the post on Reddit, the last one is supposed to cost 99,99. Wondering if that is the full list, since there are 3 numbers in between missing, though of course there always some sets that don´t make it to the shelves.

Wow, at this point I was already sure there wouldn´t be any more. I guess all of those new Sets will be coming later this year? 77977 is probably a buildable one again, so I hope the other three are all playsets.

Yeah, that probably is the main problem for people nowadays, probably for many even before money. The good thing however is, if you regret getting the Diagon Alley you can always sell it off without losing money - probably better than to not have bought it and regretting that, since you would have to spend more for it now.

That is really interesting, would have thought it would be the same timeframe for everyone. I haven´t noticed any difference in the threads shown, so I still see some of the 2025 threads that were created early in the year and the ones started somewhere in sommer not - so of course none of the 2026 ones either. Would be fine with me. It´s all of them really.

Probably you are right, but at least as nothing of that really would need a new mould (but the head doesn´t seem to unlikely), the chances shouldn´t be to bad to get one of the dronkeys.

That won´t generate more sales though because said person was already going to get the GWPs anyways and if he/she would buy on day one, two, or three won´t play a role for Lego.

Actually surprised to see dragon there, as not sure how they would make a CMF out of it but I do hope Donkey is included with Shrek and we get one of the kids for the Dragon, though depending on how they are doing here I wouldn´t be surprised if the dragon comes on its own.

How many people would really do that? In the end only people that expect a high price for the GWP and are going to sell it off to reduce the price of the main set that way - and the buyers are mainly people who missed out on the GWP because it sold out fast. Compared to that, the amount of Sets they would have sold but didn´t because the GWP just wasn´t there anymore (or even the main Set) is far bigger than what they would be selling more to some people that don´t care about the GWP anyways. That would make even less sense because if you expect them to have the GWP avaiable for every Set sold, you would need to know how many of the Set you are ever going to produce, which is just not possible.

That would go against the whole concept of encouraging people to buy at Lego to get the GWPs though. And keeping the rest of the GWPs in logistics for another 6 months, isn´t really something a company would want to do, as that isn´t exactly cheap either. Yeah that and the Creel House GWP this year were gone quite quick. In the end it is hard to really calculate the demand of certain sets and we don´t have the numbers of Sets/GWPs produced anyways, but I would expect that there are larger numbers of GWPs produced if they expect higher demand. Just sometimes it is still not enough. I think you are missing an important point here though. They would have to keep GWPs in production to have stock to cater them to every sold set for its lifespan meaning they would also have to keep exclusive Parts in production and logistics, while if they produce them all within a short timespan and then have the capacities free for the next one. I don´t actually think that is really happening though. In the end sure if someone knows GWPs are regularly gone fast someone might be more easily ready to make a order to get a GWP. But you shouldn´t forget that with every GWP that is sold out to fast, they don´t make more money by selling the exclusive Set that it comes with. So I doubt it is actually in Legos interest to have Sets/GWPs gone within less than a half day.

Yeah, there are basically three things I would expect to be displayed in the Set: The watcher in the water with the doors of Durin The chamber of Mazarbul with Balins tomb The bridge with the Balrog

Ah intersting. LKC was gone within a minute, but I think Gringotts was avaiable for a way longer period. here.

Regular Sets often have even shorter shelf lifes, though and in the end it depends on sales and such, there are so many big sets now, you can´t keep everything for years in production. At least some GWPs exclusive to a certain Set have sold out quickly, Minas Tirith will probably be among them. Gringotts wasn´t avaiable in the US for Insiders weekend? Well, yeah, GWPs are only avaiable for a short time, but aside from Sets that are exclusive to a Set I don´t remember any that was gone that fast lately. But aside from that you also mentioned normal Sets you would have bought and I just don´t think that any Set really was sold out all the time - closest to this is probably the Gingerbread AT-AT but even that one was avaiable for more than just a few days. Aside from BAM and certain GWPs (Usually when a Store opens) I don´t remember any Set that is exclusive to the Stores and retailer exclusives can still be bought at Lego, so it isn´t really like you couldn´t get your hands on those, but sure, not everyone probably knows that they even exist. I can think of a few that are far worse though. You just have to look at some shoe brands where some limited collection drops at a certain time and usually is gone within minutes if not seconds. I don´t even remember a single GWP that sold out in less than an hour, let alone after some seconds. And as @Virginia_Bricks mentioned the same goes for certain tickets and I could name further examples. It isn´t really that common, but it isn´t really like it doesn´t happen at all, especially for older Sets. And yeah, some people put their sets into Acryl Cases, which would be the protective sleeves for Lego.

For a moment I thought the actual GWP was revealed. But yeah, that one and the Serpent for Castle will be at least two decent GWPs this year for me - last year was a bit of a disappointement for me in that departement.

Ah, I see, especially if you sell the second GWP - or use that for partout to that should be a good source, yeah. Well, but most of your problems won´t change if they do the set in 2, 3, 4 years instead of next and I just don´t see them not doing Moria at all (unless they would stop with the theme but that also seems highly unlikely to me at this point) I would definitely expect the watcher to be included, but personally I would probably prefer it on the left side of the build rather than on the back. Personally I have no idea how they would do it so it looks decent but looking at Rivendell and Minas Tirith I am pretty sure they can make it look great, as you can build some rock face and dwarven architecture - biggest question probably would be if it would have an open top as that would need a lot of pieces or come up with another idea, on what to display there.

Out of interest, two copies to display both sides of the modell? Maybe not the most likely option for the next Set, especially since I would still expect a smaller Set like Meduseld for the next Set, I don´t think that would really be a reason for them not to make it. I mean, we got different versions and attempts of the same stuff at the same time in other franchises too (Hogwarts Express, to stay with the booknooks) and I actually don´t think that many would say I got the Balrog, I don´t need Moria, as that might be a iconic part of that location, but there is just so much more to it.