MAB

I doubt it, at least until they hit clearance. Nobody will be buying these up and selling the smart bricks off at a reasonable price. The rest of the set is not particularly good, and quite over priced compared to similar sets without the smart brick.

Why is that unfortunate? If people want to change their figures one way or the other it is a good thing. I convert yellow skin to fleshies, as I think they look more modern and also look better when displayed near licensed sets, even if they are not mingled with them. LEGO now aid this better than in the past by having less flesh printed on torsos so they can be repurposed more easily. I don't mind leg printing, so long as it is not meant to be a continuous design from torso to legs. I prefer it when the legs and torsos can be used with other parts, and also posed without the legs needing to be straight for the print to match up.

Alternatively, Castle was around for many years and LEGO decided they need a change. They tried short lived themed like Atlantis, PQ and Monster Fighters. They fused Castle and Space into Nexo Knights for a few years. And by that time, Ninjago took off and LEGO decided to consolidate their in-house themes into the three large evergreen minifigure/minidoll based themes of City, Ninjago and Friends . And sales were at a high. The short lived and smaller in-house themes that need their own advertising have been where they try out other ideas, such as Vidiyo and Hidden Side. LEGO have moved vintage themes into Creator for kids (and adults with smaller budgets) and IDEAS for adults with larger budgets.

Unlicensed IDEAS sets are still relatively common. If you look at the list of sets, the distribution hasn't really changed since the start. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lego_Ideas Plus now we have Bricklink sets, where there are five unlicensed sets per round.

I look forward to getting a smart brick, but mainly as I want a look inside and want to explore hacking it. They are too expensive to buy at full RRP to do that with though.

Surely if it was 'classic' it would just be a rehash of an existing figure.

Yeah, they are diversifying the theme a bit with Brickheadz, the book nook and now the helmet (hopefully to be followed up by the Witch King). And these are all quite firmly adult collectables rather than playsets, which shows where LEGO think the theme will do best.

And quite a few smaller sets with basic bricks for themed ideas.

If you want Nexo Knights, you can still buy a lot of them cheaper than the price of a CMF on bricklink.

Some might be, but others aren't. LEGO know the numbers but we don't. LEGO also knows which customers are most important to them. And if the AFOLs not happy with spending $200 on a LOTR set are still happy spending smaller amounts on other themes, I doubt they care which theme it is being spent on.

I had a look at specialist battery suppliers earlier. I couldn't see a single rechargeable battery for consumers small enough to fit. There are plenty of ones that are made for permanent use, but not replaceable. The smallest I can see are AAA. I don't know what voltage they will require for the smart brick, but I'm guessing 3.3V is likely to be the minimum so that would probably need 3x 1.2V rechargeable AAA or a single AAA with a boost/step-up converter which makes it large volume. The only option I can see for LEGO right now is to either run on (non-rechargeable) coin cells and require the user to keep purchasing, swapping and throwing away dead cells or use a small integrated rechargeable battery as they have done here. If this needs a battery box even half the size required for trains, it would destroy the fits in a brick idea. The smart brick is already taller than a 2x4. If it needed to be 4x8x3 then it suddenly looks a lot less smart. And given the integrated battery will almost certainly outlive a child's interest in these toys in the majority of cases, I think they have made the right decision going for the non-removable rechargeable solution as that produces less electronic waste than replaceable non-rechargeable batteries.

Only if the battery is expected to fail before the product is obsolete. Everything could be repairable but that usually needs to be at the expense of cost and size. For a rechargeable battery to be replaceable then the brick needs to be designed to be openable, and have the battery accessible without exposing the other electronics, and be replaceable with a rechargeable battery that is readily available to consumers. That increases the cost and most definitely the size, making the product as it is impossible. I know there are small specialist rechargeable batteries and some coin cell type available but for normal consumers I think the smallest ones on store shelves are AAA. Then there is also the issue of should the speaker be accessible to replace when it fails, so it needs to be desolderable and away from other components (and available to purchase), then the same with LEDs and so on. Miniaturisation is soon lost.

It's true that every change is a slow change rather than an abrupt change. But then, that is they way it should be. It is evolution rather than revolution. Minifigures didn't suddenly appear, there were slabbies before and maxi figures before those and at the time kids were playing with other brands' figures in conjunction with LEGO bricks plus it took years for minifigures to become what they are today. Similarly adult LEGO didn't just appear but took years in different forms. Changes start small and evolve. The only real revolution in LEGO was the change from wood to plastic and even that was relatively slow. Technic introduced new parts that are used in System, but also System has changed tending towards smaller parts and SNOT parts that allow for detail and more realistic models, which also ties into the growth of the adult market.

The company thinks different to a user though, whether LEGO or another company. They will support a product as long as they sell it. When they bring out a new and improved product, they'll eventually drop support for the previous one. Everything has a lifetime, and I doubt they plan to keep this going for 10 years. So if a battery (or other components) lasts that long, they will see that as long enough. If someone is expecting to repair and replace components after the expected lifetime, they are probably a hobbyist that will have the skills to do so by opening up the bricks in this case. LEGO didn’t or doesn't sell replacement DC motors for the 1960s trains, either at the time or now. Presumably they knew the motors would last long enough when used under normal conditions for enough years but not indefinitely. But with care they are replaceable. I know as I have done it with a modern motor. I think most consumers would understand that tech based products will age quite quickly before being replaced with more modern tech in future.

Top three for me are: the minifigure, licenses and "adult LEGO" (not just UCS sets and Modulars, but LEGO embracing mainsteam adult buyers). All three have had a massive impact on sales and how LEGO is viewed, each about a generation apart. LEGO has never been the same after each change. There have been lots of other little changes that are important for smaller groups but big changes change the whole product line. And combine all three, licensed minifigures for adults. A huge driver for LEGO's increase in sales volumes.

I doubt LEGO would offer a replacement service and continue to support the hardware for this once they no longer produce it. And I reckon this will be discontinued and replaced by another product in LEGO's lineup long before the rechargeable batteries no longer charge and need replacing.

Small sets weren't particularly popular when they did them a decade ago. I imagine that is still in the LEGO corporate mind. And since then adult LEGO has become a thing, and all-inclusive big sets seem to be working well for LOTR. Plus they will probably find if they release small sets - especially if they duplicate minifigures from big sets - then sales of the bigger sets will suffer. And if they don't duplicate the (main) figures, then there is little incentive for people without the big sets to buy the small sets.

Is it though, when you consider the number and size of batteries whether from phones, laptops, and many consumer electronics, etc that are thrown away every year? If a rechargeable battery lasts 10+ years in a toy then I imagine the manufacturer decides it has done its job. That wouldn't need to be removable / replaceable for the vast majority of consumers that buy it for its intended purpose. Chances are the correct batteries are not readily available for consumers and are hard wired too. To make them replaceable, then that would mean the brick needs to be easily openable (exposing the insides to damage unless they are protected) and have a battery cradle so that it can be removed and replaced. And if the majority of consumers will never need to replace the battery during normal use, it makes little sense to do this. If it is anything like other electronics, chances are there will be a way for (experienced) people to open it if they really want to get inside and change the power options, whether that is to put a new battery in it or wire it to a power adapter or similar.

I imagine the battery will last 12-15 years. I have plenty of rechargeable batteries of that age that have been used relatively frequently but still charge and work. Not as well as when they were new, but they still work. I expect that LEGO see that as lasting long enough even though it is not forever. Presumably there is only so much internal case studies can tell them, and so at some stage they need to test it on real people that buy products rather than selected testers that get given the products to test and comment on.

The unreleased future set did not even exist as a rumour when they priced them though, so irrelevant. Pricing of anything is dynamic depending on supply and demand so the price will presumably drop as the leak spreads and definitely when the new set is released. I don't think anyone is swindled though, as they can buy the complete set themselves just like the reseller. Nobody is forced to buy from a reseller.

Let's do an experiment. Here are the current and recent sold BL prices for Sauron, just taken today. First image worldwide, second image UK / GBP only. It should help see what happens to the price of a Sauron minifigure both as sellers (and buyers) find out about the new Helmet set and then again at the time of release. I dread to think what a $10 LOTR set would like like. It is now 14 years on from the original series and the cheapest sets (Gandalf Arrives and The Wizard Battle) in that range were $13. So $10 now would probably get you a single figure and a few parts.

One of the joys of being a bit older is that I bought a lot of now popular sets from around that time and the following year at clearance prices, and had the sense to keep them together rather than mix them into general parts. I've even got a few still sealed.

Do they need to change? No. However, they do need to keep current and there are always some people wanting modern tech in their play. So long as they don't start putting these bricks into all their sets (which they won't) then I'm fine with it and it might even produce some interestng parts that can be hacked. It is a little gimmick to help sell sets to kids (and maybe adults) that want interactive features aside from building. I don't think the point of them is to change LEGO, but just enhance a few sets for those that like this sort of thing. When the IR controllers were reverse engineered, I built a little arduino based kit that had an IR beam across a train track and when broken by a passing train it sent another IR signal to the train to slow then stop at the station, play some sounds, change some LED display boards, pause the train for a few seconds then start off again. It was a fun way to add some functions to LEGO without changing what it was. I think this is similar but much easier for a non-electronics hobbyist to get into, a bit like using Mindstorms compared to buying bare boards and sensors. I also think many of the examples you quote did change LEGO, at least a little. Pretty much every city style display at a convention I see has a train. Whether it is Power Functions, older 12V or newer stuff, that changed LEGO _a little_. Similarly Boost, Spike, Mindstorms, etc changed LEGO _a little_ for those that enjoy that type of thing. There is loads of creativity that come from the latter in terms of GBC or other moving creations. For those people, those sets/parts were important. But of course nothing will change LEGO as much as (i) the minifigure and (ii) licensed sets, both of which have led to the popularity of it today. And possibly a third, ICONS/18+ sets. I also think they are making more diverse sets than ever. At affordable prices, possibly not. But that is the state of LEGO today. So incredibly popular with casual fans or new fans that weren't around even just ten years ago.

Indeed. Anyone with a Sauron for sale is not a scalper but a reseller. Scalpers would have sold all theirs months ago, or just sold the set.

Yeah, I don't see those as just old children's toys. They are nostalgic vintage collectables. I sell quite a lot of minifigures, old and new, and it is funny how people view prices. I often get comments along the line of you want how much for that, it is just an old child's toy. It is nearly always described as a "child's toy" by a buyer even though it is for themselves. So I tell them if they want just an old child's toy they can buy these ones at 10% of the price. But of course they want the vintage collectables and not the generic City figures.