Maddock Monkey

We did it! We got really lucky with nailing Priella and Calissa, and Fergus made an excellent move one-shotting Wyeth - he was not really on my radar at all. I enjoyed the kinda-open setup with actions going all around - was lots of fun to think and talk about. What was Calissa’s win condition? My character quirk was “doesn’t like animals” and I was tried to implement that as “doesn’t like animals because they poop too much” and we know where that ended up... I’m sorry that Lyev got thrown into the scum deep end just as the game was starting, that must have been difficult.

Vote: End the Day Early

Omae wa mou shindeiru Vote: Lyev Lion

[youtube]ewAKQuY9ZyI[/youtube] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewAKQuY9ZyI [youtube=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewAKQuY9ZyI][/youtube] fuckin' 'ell let's try a different may may then uh oh you just got friggin duck rolled! tag ur friends to totally duck roll them!

I mean, what are we looking at? Either Lyev is scum or Hayleigh, Evren & Fergus are all scum together? can’t wait until the deli opens

we’ww cwoss dat bwidge if we come to it At the risk of appearing arrogant may I be the one to hammer Lyev? I want to call his bluff. and @Lyev Lion the front really fell off this scum joint didn’t it?

Even if it’s real, it sounds like something a lynched trickster would leave behind. Nobody (town) has had any other actions aside from those the trickster ya deigned to give us? I Knew You Were Trouble so let’s get over this Bad Blood and write your name down in the Blank Space in my vote. soz since I cross-posted w ferg I want to make clear I’m responding to lyev here

Well at least we were right about the Twicktew’s identity and didn’t lose a Defector instead. Can I vote for Lyev yet? No? Can I at least fling stuff at him? To season our eventual LION SANDWICH? I’m very interested to know how the investigation, watch and jailkeep went last night.

Peekaboo!

"Unhelpful" is one way to put it. I'm putting LION SANDWICH on my menu for tomorrow.

Several times Lyev has mentioned that Wyeth could have given a town investigation result because of a scum framer: He's come forward with this idea both before and after Wyeth flipped scum, and I wonder why? When I hear "framer" I don't think "framer/tailor", which is what Fergus & the other framer would have had to be in order to make a scum look good. Either he knows that Night One had a "framer/tailor" because he has information he claims not to have, or he's trying to cast doubt on the other investigators (me & Caylin). Now why would he do that? Notice also that Lyev has shut right up today. Methinks he's biding his time and waiting for us to fuck up. I know I'm going against the flow, but here goes. Vote: Lyev Lion

It was a gambit - I was a PGO last night so I wanted to look like I had a lead on someone (dangerous to scum), since as a PGO on this Floaty McBoaty any killer targeting you would die instead of you. Because the gremlins looked for Pembroke and then grabbed Wyeth instead. You could easily read a PGO interaction into this turn of events, and it's a disclaimer to stop you from thinking in fact Wyeth tried to kill Pembroke but got PGOd. I've been thinking about it. Imagine Fergus is lying about having been the vigilante and is in fact scum. Then someone else would be able to counterclaim vigilante, as @Evren Elephant has pointed out. Now suppose nobody can counterclaim vig because in fact Keyarra was the vig. How then would Keyarra have died? Wyeth can't have been the target of Vig!Keyarra because both of them died, so Wyeth must have tried to kill someone else and been PGOd. Then Vig!Keyarra would have been PGOd herself - either by PGO!Fergus or by another PGO - either way there would be a PGO able to make a claim because I confirmed with Govind Goat during the night that were I to kill someone in my capacity as PGO, I would receive a night action result about it. Long and short of it is Fergus was the vigilante last night since we lack a counterclaim. That, coupled with my investigation on Night One, makes him unimpeachable in my view. I am not ready to vote. I think we should prioritize voting out scum. If we get the last scum and the game isn't over, then we know we must lynch the trickster.

Well well well, one more scum down! In retrospect I shouldn’t have doubted you Hendrick, you were bang on with your carnival knowledge of Wyeth’s alignment. And with Wyeth’s death I think that takes care of the “if you had to pick one of the three investigation targets to be scum” question, though as was pointed out yesterday it’s possible one of the investigators was scum and passed along a false town reading.

What’s bwown and sticky?

I’ve just invented a fandabulous whirring steam contraption - it’s an automatic broom that collects all the poops so we needn’t get our hands sticky!

It's quiet... too quiet. Let's keep up the discussion. I think we've agreed there's a nontrivial chance that at least one of last night's investigation targets is scum. If you had to name one as scum, who would you pick? For me, probably Hayleigh Hippo.

You did, sowwy. Would you like a poop as a token of apology?

There! As someone for whom reading (rather than probability) is a strong suit, reading is not a strong suit. Perhaps I should stop bidding hearts.

No, I don't get that at all. But on the other hand I do get: So it seems fairly clear to me that last night, had the scum enjoyed a frame or a kill or both, they'd have been able to do that in addition to blocking someone (presumably Fergie) and killing Shanley Pavilion. Not sure why some (ahem Wyeth) are wondering how the scum could have used several actions: forgive me if I'm wrong but I feel I'm not reading into anything; merely taking what we have at face value. HAM SANDWICH!

I've had some more time to think about what's been posted and I'm not happy. Bad animals! Two legs good four legs bad! Excuse me but I don't think the investigation results are worthless. I mean it looks different if you're not one of the claimed investigators, but being me I have 100% certainty I'm town and not fucking with you. You're right that it looks like tonight will be a bloodbath with the three PGOs plus compulsive vig and compulsive scum kill. This isn't exactly a new idea - Fergus first proposed it while I was busy doing my maths, then I entertained it while re-doing my calculations because I hadn't thought about the possibility of a scum investigator. It's miraculous how this somehow ends up being Lyev's insightful suggestion. Why bring up the absorber role? You've managed to put everyone on a different track and this puts me at the opposite of ease. How do we know the Trickster has some variation of an absorber role? When I asked our captain how the results of an investigation shake out, he said I'd get Defector, Loyalist or Third Party. As it happens, my result for Fergus was specifically Defector, but to me the possibility of even getting a result on the trickster third party means that an absorber is not at play here. Right now I'm at P(Fergus Town|Town Result)~0.85, along with Fergus Good Ideas: I and Fergus Bad Ideas: I. idk even what to think anymore. It's not surprising that Wyeth Earp has voted for Hendrick, but it makes me uneasy that Pembroke has so happily hopped on board too.

Ginny Hendrick was telling me he was certain he’d be (a) framed and (b) investigated. He must be breathing a sigh of relief right now, but is it the relief of a safe townie or the relief of an unscrutinized scum? Fergus already pointed out our motormouth has been quiet today, so I want to turn up the heat. Vote: Hendrick Horse

Gee thanks that never occurred to me. I wish I could tell you exactly what the scum did last night but unfurtunately I'm neither scum nor a mind reader. Why would one scum frame another? That way only two people might investigate scum, rather than three.

I did some math working on the worst-case basis that there were still 3 scum (Govind Goat heard all about how counting sucks in my PM with him) but I've left my papers at home and it's out of date now we know Priella was scum. Let's think (and assume that scum, in possession of a frame, would try to frame a townie rather than one of themselves in order to spread out suspicion). Going into last night there were twelve barnyard denizens (going to assume that's 10 town, 2 scum at this juncture). Probability is not my strong suit so if anyone can correct my computations and intuition, go ahead. stuff Oh yeah. That throws a spanner in my intuition. Let's do some more math on how to get two scum targets with 3 town results (here my being scum/being town denominators are 13 because the trickster chose before we lost Shanley and Priella, but I think as before the denominators wash out in the end). There are several ways to get a town result on someone. event A: be town, be sane, investigate a townie who isn't framed: (10/13)*(2/3)*(9/11)*(9/10)=1620/4290 event B: be town, be insane, investigate a scum: (10/13)*(1/3)*(2/11)=200/4290 event C: be town, be insane, investigate a townie who is framed: (10/13)*(1/3)*(9/11)*(1/10)=90/4290 event D: be scum, be sane, report someone is town: (2/13)*(2/3)=440/4290 event E: be scum, be insane, report someone is town: (2/13)*(1/3)=220/4290 I guess first I need to add up all the probabilities of all combinations of the 5 events (yuck!) and then do the bayes type stuff. Anyway I hardcoded a little script to do the calculation and for each of the following cases I got the given results (I know I'm double-counting events D and E in places to account for scum choosing to report on either town or scum, and note combo DDE is probably not possible because I doubt there were 4 scum to begin with): three town targets (events AAC,AAE,ACD,ADE,CDD): 36% one scum target (events AAB,AAE,ABD,ACD,ADE,BDD,CDD): 52% two scum targets (events ABD,ADE,BDD,CDD): 12% I'm tired, this is a massive kludge that took way too long, I'm somehow proud of it even though I suck at probability and counting and all that. Not exactly likely there are two scum. Wouldn't be surprised if there was one scum. Actually in the analysis I did earlier when I assumed all three investigators were town I had these probabilities: event A: be sane, investigate a townie who isn't framed: (2/3)*(9/11)*(9/10)=162/330 event B: be town, be insane, investigate a scum: (1/3)*(2/11)=20/330 event C: be town, be insane, investigate a townie who is framed: (1/3)*(9/11)*(1/10)=9/330 I intuited that the thing that matters was the 20 vs 9 in the numerator, which gives us a bit less than 1/3 chance that everyone we targeted was town. Why now in the full accounting 36% vs 31%? Because the scum may have tried to investigate (or fake a sane investigation) on a townie to get in our good graces. Either way, it's still 1/3 ish that we all targeted town with our investigations last night. The real takeaway is I need to go to bed

Definitely can’t be two because we’d need the insane cop to get a town result and then we need one more town result some way some how, which we don’t have a means to explain. it’s not obvious that one of the investigation targets should be scum, since we did have the un-claimed frame going around. I wonder why Fergus’s night action was unsuccessful? Maybe the scum didn’t believe he would frame Calissa? I don’t suppose anyone else would know if they had been blocked, would they? All three investigations are spoken for and I doubt the other framer would pipe up now. re: today’s setup, nobody should claim anything.