Kit Figsto

The Transylvania set looks fantastic! I'd love to pick it up, I'm just not sure if I can stomach the inevitable $400-450 price point. I'm not super familiar with the BDP set prices, but with 4,000 pieces, I assume it'll be in that ballpark?

I'm super curious about this, now that you bring it up. I think that the Justifier and Andor set probably both didn't do well, in the case of Andor because of price, in the case of the Justifier because it was way too big of a price point for a niche vehicle like that, but I feel like the other sets generally seemed to sell well, unless I'm forgetting something. The Kenobi sets didn't have a super long shelf-life, but I also didn't see them hanging around much, so I'd be curious to know sales figures there. The only other sets, to my recollection, have been the recent Ahsoka ones (where it remains to be seen how they do), TCW S7 (which sold out instantly everywhere and took like months to get to a point where they were commonplace on shelves), and Mando/Book of Boba Fett (which has been the property that LEGO seems to focus on most today, so I'm assuming they do well.

I think that this is the trouble with a lot of newer sets and the prices. Prices have certainly gone up, but I also think that it's partly due to the amount of parts being put into sets versus the actual size. I've referenced this video a ton of times, but Jangbricks does a really good breakdown in his Eldorado Fortress review, where he essentially argues that LEGO prices haven't gone up as much as people say, it just feels that way because there was a period of time (2010s, mostly) where there was essentially no inflation in LEGO at all, and then suddenly everything is hitting at once, which I would have to agree with. Star Wars BPs are a great example. When they came out in 2007, they were $9.99, and I think over the course of about 10 years, only really got as high as $11-12.99, which doesn't feel like much. Suddenly, a few years later, they're back, and they're charging $26.99! Okay, that's too much, it gets bumped down to $19.99. This still feels high, as inflation shows that $10 in 2007 should be roughly $15.50 now, which is about what you can get these BPs on sale for if you wait a little bit. Point being, I think that people are expecting prices to be at 2015 levels when that's just not the reality anymore. I also think that it's interesting how now, you can essentially find any set either on sale or with a reduced price if you just wait a bit. Obi-Wan's starfighter, for example, has been $23.99 at Target/Walmart for essentially a year, it probably retailed for $29.99 for less time than it's had the discounted price. Conversely, during the 2000s and 2010s, LEGO on sale was basically unheard of unless you found something on clearance, or it was a store like Toys "R" Us that sold stuff above MSRP to begin with. My personal theory is that prices are being marked up knowing that stores now are much more lenient about giving sales on sets that aren't selling at full price. If it's a LEGO exclusive, then you're out of luck, but I've pretty much been buying most everything 3-6 months after it comes out now since I can just get it for cheaper. That brings me back to my original point, I think another contributing factor to the "prices versus stuff" argument is that sets now are more detailed than ever. This is good, but it also means that there's way more parts being put into greebling and other details than there were 10-15 years ago. As such, the price/piece of sets hasn't necessarily taken a hit, even though the sets themselves feel the same size. The skiff is a great example. I have the one from, I believe, 2012, which cost like $30 and came with 4 minifigures. I don't own the 2024 one, but the 2012 skiff actually looks larger than the new one, though the Sarlacc is way larger on the new one. Looking at the new one, certain aspects of the skiff (the transparent stand, some of the floor, etc) appear to use more small pieces compared to the 2012 version. Does the new skiff/Sarlacc look good? Yes. Is it probably the most movie-accurate one? Yes. Did we need it to cost $80 when we could've made things a bit smaller/less detailed and probably accomplished the same idea at a $50 price point? I'm going with no. This is a very long-winded way of saying that, while I believe prices have gone up a bit too unreasonably, I also feel like things "feel" more expensive because there's been sort of a shift into detail versus straight size of models. There's also the aspect that things are getting put on sale very quickly now, meaning that an $80 is, in reality, like a $64 set, which feels more bearable, especially when you look at piece counts, even though a skiff + Sarlacc set "feels" like it should be a $30-40 set. What I don't get, though, is why some themes' pricing feels completely arbitrary. Dreamzzz is a good example, where you had some sets that felt like a solid value for the price (most of the $20-30 range), but then you had sets that were effectively the same size/part count as some of these that cost $40-50. 2023 Indiana Jones also made no sense, because it was a licensed property, and yet those sets were priced incredibly cheap.

I saw a handful of Onyx Cylinder sets at Target in the US two days ago on one of their stocking carts, about to go on shelves. Didn't see any other of the August 1st sets. I was out of town, though, and had zero space for anything extra in my luggage, so I couldn't have bought any even if I had wanted to.

Yeah, we have this whole song and dance routine any time it's an anniversary (which, to my account, is literally every year now except those ending in 1, since we've had saga movies come out in years ending in 0, 2, 3, 5, 7, and 9). They've only ever done major acknowledgements of the LSW anniversary and of the 30th anniversary of ANH when they did the gold C-3PO promotion. We basically can expect 2-3 actual movie tie-ins per year, and then they may label some other stuff with the anniversary branding if the Star Wars brand as a whole is using it (such as the TIE Bomber using the ROTJ anniversary logo on the box, even though that set has pretty much nothing to do with ROTJ). This year we got the Droideka, Podrace diorama, and Sith Infiltrator (technically the AAT polybag and Trooper carrier GWP, but I won't count those). Last year, we got the two ROTJ dioramas and the TIE Bomber. I don't even know if 2022 had anything for the 35th anniversary of ANH, there were three ANH sets (two dioramas and the UCS Landspeeder) but I have no idea if they were actually branded or anything, they all seemed like sets that could've come in any year. Point being, I don't know why everyone has to get all worked up over anniversaries quite literally every year, because they just don't go all out for them, yet from the way people talk, you'd think that EVERY anniversary is getting a giant wave of sets and it's only THIS specific year that we're getting screwed out of an anniversary wave. We've got the ARC-170 confirmed, that's already a big one and is pretty highly requested, so I'm betting we get some sort of 18+ set in the summer wave and then probably 1-2 more system scale sets too, and that'll be it.

Also, keep in mind that the average consumer of LEGO has no idea what's coming. Unless you're following leaks specifically on social media/message boards, most people have no idea what sets are coming later in the year. Heck, even for some themes that I am interested in, I don't really have any idea of what's coming (Speed Champions, for example). I even see comments on Reddit or Instagram all the time from people that follow or post a lot about "Wait, what's coming?" and that's people who are specifically engaging with LEGO fan content on social media still not having any idea what sets are coming later. Point being, the reveals being drip-fed like this instead of all at once are probably a mix of a) minimizing the opportunity for knockoffs to copy the sets b) building hype among the average consumer that isn't following leaks, as opposed to seeing everything dumped all at once

Plus, the bunker is literally a gray box. You can throw in some trees, Ewok traps, maybe the shield generator dish, and an AT-ST, but at the end of the day, it's not that exciting of a build if the bunker is the focal point of the set. I know that the Cantina is essentially just a tan box, but it's got a lot of interesting interior details going for it, plus enough exterior greebles and stuff to where it was both an interesting build experience and looks nice, whereas the shield bunker only really has one room that we see, and it's just a command station. The Ewok Village seems way more interesting as both a building experience and a display piece. The Ewok Village was $250 when it came out, I think looking at it, it seems like a good candidate to increase the size a bit and put it in the $350 MBS slot, same as the Cantina and Cloud City. I could see them combining the two, though, and doing a $500 MBS with the Ewok Village, bunker, shield generator, some trees, an AT-ST, and a couple of speeder bikes. Not only would that encompass all of the Ewok Village + Battle of Endor scenes, but also the speeder bike chase. Basically, something similar to what they were trying to do with Assault on Hoth, except now they have the MBS label so people won't get as mad, probably.

It seems like generally, minifigure lists from leaks can be very hit and miss, even from reliable leakers. The only people I would be 100% confident in if they leaked a minifigure are some of the folks that drop info on Eurobricks exclusively and are proven to be legitimate. Instagram has too many people looking for attention (such as whoever made up that "multiple eyes" creature build leak, which was like 99% fake from the get-go), and for whatever reason, it seems like the major blogs get minifigure selections wrong often. I feel like we've had other examples of figure lists being wrong in past years, but it got amplified this year because of the whole "Death Star is actually an ISD" thing, which is the first time I can really remember major leakers being totally off on something.

Yeah, but then there'd be a whole meltdown about Fives being in a more expensive set and not a minifig scale set, etc etc

This sounds like a really fun idea for a set, I think it fits right in with the vibe of the other 25th anniversary sets. I'm guessing they'll probably be 6-ish inches tall, so not as big as the buildable R2-D2, but quite a bit larger than that polybag R2 from a number of years back?

I wouldn't say any less than normal. Rebel Soldiers have pretty much always been somewhat scarce. It was like eight years into the line before the first Rebel Fleet Trooper figures, and I believe ten before the first Endor Troopers. The only ones we really ever got in larger quantities were Hoth Troopers. The fact that there's Fleet Troopers on shelves in two different sets right now is probably the first time that's ever happened. Plus, they just brought back Super Battle Droids for the first time in, what, like a decade? The only one that I think is oddly harder to find are standard Battle Droids - they've been in some clone sets in recent years, but it feels like the ratio of clone to B1 is like 3:1.

This is true, I didn't think of that. I was partially thinking of the raised baseplate issue that some of them cause, but the Eldorado Fortress proved that they can definitely work around that (and arguably do it better, since the base being constructed of actual bricks allows for play areas inside of the ground, whereas the baseplate was hollow).

I think if they went with another nostalgic space set, there's a few directions I could see them going. If we got another large space ship, I think either something Blacktron based or a reimagined version of the Deep Freeze Defender would be the biggest ones there. I could also see them going with some sort of land base, from either any of those factions or just straight up Classic Space. I feel like M-Tron also could get a set at some point, but it would probably be a GWP, since I think the only flagship set in there was the big tank thingy, and that seems unlikely over a ship or base.

I definitely think that LEGO will continue to revisit classic themes/classic sets in either reimagined ways (like the Eldorado Fortress or Blacktron Cruiser) or in a more original way (like the Lion Knight's Castle or Galaxy Explorer), but I think it remains to be seen if they'll expand on them or keep sort of doing what they're doing now (1-2 sets per year and then 1-2 retro GWP per year). Clearly they're going for an adult market with them, as they're all higher priced and many of them don't contain as many play features as a modern City or Ninjago set would, and they all seem to be doing well (the only one that I recall being on discount was the Galaxy Explorer at Walmart, but that seemed like an exception, since no other retailer really had it on sale), but I don't think it's likely that we get a full expansion into retro themes being totally revived. The only way that would happen, in my opinion, is something like the 2009 Space Police III or something like Power Miners/Pharaoh's Quest being a spiritual successor to Rock Raiders/Adventurers - not a true reboot, but takes a similar concept and modernizes it.

Right, but the other music collaborations that they’ve done (to my recollection it’s those two plus the Rolling Stones) are much, much more well-known. Even though none of the artists I mentioned are as relevant today as they were 40-50 years ago, you can still get basically any piece of licensed merchandise with them on it, whereas I don’t see the same for Pharrell Williams. Plus, those sets were very displayable - either a mural of one of the artists, which is super recognizable as Elvis or Paul McCartney or whomever, or the Rolling Stones logo, which is also super recognizable. If you were to have this set on display, it’s not really recognizable as something tied into Pharrell. I’m withholding judgement on this set until it’s released, but it just seems very odd.

That’s not entirely true. Mandalorian didn’t have any legacy characters in its first season, and that was arguably the height of the show’s popularity. Bad Batch had characters that were in Clone Wars, but I’d hardly call them legacy characters when they were introduced like a year before, only appeared in like four episodes, and the prevailing sentiment online seemed to be “why are these guys getting a spin-off show, that’s dumb.” Rebels also barely used legacy characters other than a handful of episodes here and there. If we want to go way back, look up what people thought about Ahsoka when the first Clone Wars movie/season came out.

I agree, I don't think the brand itself is struggling, I think it's just that oversaturation is a thing that probably was underestimated. I don't follow Marvel as closely, but it seems like this was sort of the case there too. Marvel was getting tons of hype when the MCU was coming to a close, with Infinity War and Endgame, and then people were excited for some of the D+ shows, but it seems like the attention to that franchise has been hit and miss in the years since. Star Wars seems to have been similar. The sequels objectively performed well at the box office, regardless of controversial opinions on them, Rogue One generally seemed to have been received well, Solo didn't do as well at the box office but I've yet to really meet anyone that disliked the movie, Andor seems to have been received really well, and Mandalorian was obviously a smash hit. I think the issue is that there's so much other stuff, it's hard to keep track of and pay attention to it all. I feel like a lot of the shows that I didn't list are ones that seem to have mixed reviews. Some people liked them, others didn't, which is fine, but I think when you have a property as large as Star Wars (or Marvel, or DC), there's a certain expectation that everything is going to appeal to all fans of that franchise. Is that entirely realistic? No, not really, but that's how people will treat the franchises. I also think it's important to keep in mind that a lot of these new shows are going to appeal to certain people more than others. Mandalorian was more of a Western, and I think channeled more of the spirit of ANH. Andor was more of a political drama. Book of Boba Fett was more of a crime/gangster show. So on and so forth. I consider myself a SW fan, and there aren't many SW movies or shows that I actually disliked, but in the past year, I haven't watched Ahsoka, Tales of the Empire, Visions, Tales of the Jedi, and I'm just now starting BB S3. This is a mixture of two things. First, my free time during parts of the year being limited, preventing me from watching, but also, it's just a bit overwhelming to keep up with all of these shows. I plan to watch all of them eventually, except maybe Visions, but I just didn't have the time. It wasn't a matter of me not liking the D+ shows - as a matter of fact, the worst opinion I've held towards one of the D+ shows was "it was fine."

What's interesting is that, at least here in the US, I have a way easier time finding polybags than I do CMFs. The last two series (25 and 26), my Target stores would get an initial stock of them (and for whatever reason, they're in places that don't make sense. With S25, I'd find one store that has them in the checkout lane, one store that has them on a random endcap, one store that has them shoved in a box on the LEGO aisle, and one store where I'll find a single CMF in a random aisle without any others to be found anywhere), and once they were gone, they're gone. Oddly, I didn't have that problem with S24 at all. On the other hand, Target always has like 4-5 different polybags at a given time and they're pretty much always plentiful. If I want CMFs, my best bet is either toy stores, the LEGO store, Barnes and Noble, or Kohl's, because major retailers can't keep them on the shelves at all, and I honestly don't think it's people buying them all up, I think they're just not ordering more once they sell out, which is really frustrating. To the point about releasing CMFs in a non-blind scenario, the only way in which that would work is if they weren't an exclusive or produced in limited quantities. Need I remind people of the fiasco that was the Clone Command Station minifigure pack...

I'm guessing that's probably one of those things in line with the number 13 being skipped due to supposed unluckiness. Sort of like some tall buildings not having a 13th floor (well, they do, it's just not labeled as 13th). I'd guess there's a lot of real life examples of numbered vehicle fleets skipping over #13. When the designers were putting the second wave together, I'd guess that someone threw out "hey, what if we skip 13?" as a way to add a teeny bit of realism/world building into the sets.

I don't remember who the exact source was on that, but if I remember correctly, it wasn't one of the "big" leakers. At this point, given how much stuff has been completely wrong from leakers this year, I'm don't even know who to really trust except Renown. Also, that leak still sounds like someone making BS up to me. I don't know what circumstance someone would be fed solely the info that it has more than 2 eyes and be unable to describe ANYTHING else about the set - color, general shape, size, limbs, etc. I feel like that's someone making things up and then if it's correct, suddenly they're a "leaker."

Some of the 2023 Indiana Jones sets came with an extra Indy hat piece. There didn’t appear to be a rhyme or reason to it, it was just some sets had one, and others didn’t.

I agree, I think BL is pretty well known among the hardcore LEGO community, but even then, I still don't know what percentage of LEGO buyers are aware of it or use it. The fact that sets on eBay or Amazon reseller shops are priced, in general, significantly higher than the exact same sets on BL (even comparing used to used or new to new), and that these sets continue to sell, even though they can be had for cheaper on BL, tell me that there is a large portion of LEGO buyers that are completely unaware, otherwise there's no reason to not purchase off of BL. Yes, I know sometimes it's an issue of BL sellers in your country not having the set, which I understand, but there are plenty of times I've seen it with sellers located in the US on both platforms.

I think option #1 is unlikely, given that the most recent themes that were similar didn't really do much in terms of longevity. Pharaoh's Quest got one wave (though one thing I realized the other day was how it felt less character-driven. Of the four characters, Jake Rains was in basically every single set, and two of the main characters were only available in single sets. They also didn't go with characters as villains, just mummies), and Monster Fighters got...a wave and a half? (it got the first wave, plus a retailer exclusive and D2C that, if I recall correctly, were released slightly after). Even Dino, if you want to consider that sort of a spiritual successor to the Dino Island subtheme, only got one wave. In the hypothetical situation where a reboot happens, I'd want to see a Greek/Roman inspired wave, similar to the old LEGO.com computer game! I've also seen some MOCs on Instagram of a hypothetical "Johnny Thunder in London" setting, which is a really interesting idea, I think something like that, maybe staged around stolen treasure from a museum, or even something with Stonehenge and the mysteries surrounding that would be really neat. If we got a one-off tribute set or a remake set, I think it would almost assuredly be Egypt based. Even away from LEGO, when people think "archaeology," the idea of Egypt and mummies is probably one of the first things that will come up. I think a remake of the Pharaoh's Forbidden Ruins would be the obvious one if they went with a large-scale remake, though a scaled-down Sphinx's Secret Surprise or Oasis Ambush would make a nice GWP-sized remake. I think it would be hard to do a tribute set that's something totally original, since the theme relied on different settings across the waves, and if they chose to revisit one of these settings, they may as well re-make one of the sets. The closest thing we've got to a tribute set is stuff like the Museum or Haunted House having references to Adventurers. My picks for a CMF (which also is unlikely):

I think my favorite original character that LEGO has created is Pepper Roni. I have a ton of nostalgia for the original LEGO Island game, and that's a big reason why. Honorable mentions include original skeleton and ghost figures, Johnny Thunder, and basically any of the Dino Attack figures. My personal favorite? I don't have a photo, but it was one of the first minifigures that I ever owned. Back in the mid-2000s, for whatever reason, the BAM and PAB stations at LEGO stores seemed to use a bunch of overstock parts from early 2000s sets. At the time, I had no idea what most of these parts were, because I was a kid brand new to LEGO, but I inadvertently ended up making a lot of figures using interesting/semi-rare parts. I don't own a lot of them anymore, but one that I've still got and was a favorite of mine was: Red springy legs from the NBA series, this torso, Dr. Killroy's head, and a white motorcycle helmet. Why that combination of parts? I dunno. But, I brought that guy everywhere with me.

Landino put up an Instagram story a few weeks ago with mock-ups of what the Dark Falcon figures allegedly were, it was just some custom assembled figures, not promo art or anything. I don't think it really got any notice on here, surprisingly, but one of them was a figure with TLJ Luke's head and hair.