Weil

Just shows what a bunch of nerds we all are I can confirm that using my program for the case that all minifigures are equally likely I get the same numbers as you guys. My program uses a completely different method to vexorian's. I used a Monte Carlo Method where conceptually I just got the computer to randomly generate a minifigure for each additional bag and recorded how many bags it took before there was a complete set. I then got the computer to run this a million times and divided the number of times I got each number of bags by a million to give the probabilities.

Good work on the maths guys! I also wrote a program for this (also in python!) a couple of days ago when we first started talking about the probability but I haven't had time over the weekend to look at the results other than to say that they looked reasonable. I'll have a look and compare them to the results from the proposed analytical formula and the different progam. I think it would be nice if an admin split this topic to a new one discussing the probabilities and perhaps make it a sticky as I think it will be very useful knowledge for a lot of CMF fans.

But the probability of those 10 outcomes are not equal so you can't just divide it by 10. There's two outcomes as to whether or not I win the lottery, I do or I don't. That doesn't mean I have a 50/50 chance! You have to take into account the different combinations with which you can get 1A, 1B, 1C compared to getting 3A, 0B, 0C. A,A,A is the only combination of getting 3A,0B,0C. A,B,C; B,C,A; C,B,A; B,A,C; A,C,B and C,A,B are all combinations of getting 1A,1B,1C. Therefore one of each is 6 times as likely as getting all of one.

I'm afraid that I don't think your calculations are correct. This can be shown by calculating the (much simpler) probability that you get 16 different figures after buying 16 bags. With your first bag the probability of getting a unique figure is 16/16. With your second bag the probability of getting a unique figure is 15/16. With your third bag the probability of getting a unique figure is 14/16. . . . With your sixteenth bag the probability of getting a unique figure is 1/16. So the overall probability of this perfect outcome is (16/16)*(15/16)*(14/16)*...*(1/16)=16!/(16^16) which is approximately 1*10^(-6) or 0.0001%. Several orders of magnitude higher than you get with your formula! Calculating the general formula for the probability of getting 16 unique figures after buying n bags is surprisingly difficult.

I never understand this argument, yes people have different skin tones in real life but nobody has bright yellow! I always think flesh mixed with yellow looks weird

Maybe they should list the page number in the thread that it becomes confirmed in the opening post.

...hmmmmm hehe. Well, I hope it pays off for TLC and it's a worthy replacement for Kingdoms.

Hmm? Didn't know about that. I'd be interested to see a copy of the letter or to know what it said.

Indeed. Am I being stupid if I don't understand why they would try very hard to do it? I don't understand what they gain, their product is all about inter-compatibility. I understand why they might want to put it on a few key figures to add detail but looking at PotC it seems they really went out of their way to do it. I for one would buy more sets if they didn't, I can't think why the peach prints on the torsos would make anyone more likely to buy the sets.

I'm certainly not a fan. I wouldn't mind it half as much if they didn't keep putting the little bits of flesh at the tops of the torso's though as then you could swap the heads and hands for yellow and it would be fine.

I am sad for the LEGO castle theme. I think the 'Castle' (as in 2007-09) and 'Kingdoms' sub-themes were both excellent. I'm sure it will return again though and it leaves on a high with the Joust set. I just hope the LOTR theme is good now. As for the flesh vs yellow issue, the hands/heads is all very well but look at the POTC theme - almost all the new torsos included (often unnecessarily) a little triangle of flesh leading up to the head which makes them rather incompatible (and I'm not a fan of having to use yellow sharpie pens to solve this).

I wouldn't be surprised if the LOTR theme also features the new sword from the Celtic Warrior in CMF series 6. I think they could possibly get away with using the same mold as the sword from the gladiator in CMF series 5 as a hobbit sword too.

Yellow all the way. It's all part of the LEGO style which is based a lot more on caricatures than it is on realism...

I think this is likely but on the other hand there's a possible fifth PotC film due out in 2013 which could result in another wave of PotC sets instead. So although I think there will be another pirate based wave in 2013 whether it's classic or PotC I think depends quite a lot on that film release. (Personally I'm hoping for classic pirates!)

Cheers. Hopefully I'll get to put something else substantial together soon when I get some time.

I've seen kids feeling the bags. If anything I think kids are more likely to do it because it's more socially acceptable for them where as you look like a bit of a plonker as an adult standing there feeling all the lego bags. I don't have a problem with it. Saying that I don't normally feel the packets. That's because I normally only buy them if I'm shopping with my girlfriend as we see them, then we get one each and part of the excitement is finding out what we've got. If there's a figure I want in particular I normally just get it off ebay normally for about £3 including p&p. The extra pound seems preferable to having to try and hunt down it in the packets and risk spending money on figures I don't want.

Skulls Eye Schooner would be the best bet I think. In addition to what other people have mentioned it also has a larger crew than the imperial flagship.

The Napoleonic Wars was entirely 19th century...

What you've said about the cut away to reveal the white shirt was common but by no means always the case. Have a look at this uniform for example: As for this Royal Guard lingo business, most people in the thread have been referring to the Lego figure and its parts which Lego have called the 'Royal Guard' which therefore means in my eyes when referring to the mini-figure and the parts that make it up then it is more than reasonable to refer to it as this regardless of the name of specific real life soldiers that it represents.

I found a lego radio (as in the minifig utensil) mixed in with the leaflets of local attractions in a self accommodation house in Jersey that I stayed in once.

I like the improvements you've made but I've never really been a fan of this ship.

Exactly. Very unlikely is an understatement. What you're suggesting Elander just doesn't make any business sense. With regards to your first post I disagree with most of your analysis. I'm pretty sure the Star Wars merchandise/collectables market is considerably larger than the size of the LOTR merchandise/collectables market, I don't think the value of the licenses are as comparable as you make out. I'm not really able to comment on what the demographics look like but I'm not convinced of what you've stated (don't even get me started on the 100% figures). Seven different sets for Minas Tirith? How many do you suggest in total for the theme? The costs of this would be unrealistic! They've got to pay people to design all those different sets and the production costs would be absolutely ridiculous. You can set up a production line to make a single set and once its running its very efficient but every time you change it efficiency drops dramatically. Just designing the box art and doing all the different printing for the packaging would drag costs up dramatically. Then you've got the problem of sales of the sets, first of all with those production costs they would be REALLY expensive. That isn't the only problem though, they would offer far too much competition for each other, I think it would be really bad for impulse buy sales and most significantly of all many of the sets would not be able to stand up by themselves as an independent set that was fun for children (without all being big and even more expensive). Every lego set has to be able to do this, the modular city sets are combinable with as few or as many other different ones that you have however each one is a great set in its own right. If you buy a child a single modular set that needs other ones to be any fun then they're not going to play with it and therefore they're not going to want or get any more. We come to another huge problem as soon as you try to imagine what the shelves of the shops selling these sets would look like. You expect them to display all those different sets? The space required would be stupid - no shop would give up that much retail space to a single theme of LEGO. There are many more flaws with the business sense of this as you've outlined it but I think that is enough to conclusively make it obvious that it is unrealistic. People calling for LOTR LEGO is fine, I wouldn't want it but I understand that some people would. You've got to be realistic about it though and if you wouldn't want it in a way that makes sense for TLC then there's no point seriously calling for it at all.

None of the pieces are even particularly rare are they? They are all totally mad.

This is something I knocked together in LDD to demonstrate what I think a LEGO LOTR licensed set of Minas Tirith might look like. If LEGO do make LOTR licesned sets then I think sets along these lines are MUCH more likely than a lot of the amazing stuff people have been dreaming about in this thread. Oh no the evil Nazgul has attacked the great city of Minas Tirith! Will he capture poor Pippin? Will The guard shoot him out of the sky with the catapult? Will Gandalf the mighty white wizard defeat him? Personally I wouldn't buy this set. I think a child would have fun with it but I think LEGO could just as easily make an unlicsened equivalent of it that would be better designed, just as if not more fun for the child, come at a lower price and be much more compatible with existing and previous LEGO castle/fantasy themes.

That's the worst one yet. There's so much wrong with it I'm not even going to bother listing the faults.