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Everything posted by NiceMarmot
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LEGO® CUUSOO 空想 - Turn your model wishes into reality
NiceMarmot replied to CopMike's topic in General LEGO Discussion
Well, if they do that, then they open themselves up to being sued by whomever owns the Shaun of the Dead intellectual property rights. To avoid that, they'd have to pay licensing fees to the SoD folks, but wouldn't have the brand-recognition of actually marketing the set as related to "Shaun of the Dead". Sounds like a no-win situation for TLG. -
Kaliphlin Guild: Homepage, Sign-up and Discussion
NiceMarmot replied to Si-MOCs's topic in Guilds of Historica
Welcome aboard, Anturio! Glad to finally meet the legendary slayer of wyrms and dragons! Looking forward to hearing more about your past, and seeing some new MOCs from you. Help yourself to some mead! -
LEGO® CUUSOO 空想 - Turn your model wishes into reality
NiceMarmot replied to CopMike's topic in General LEGO Discussion
The Rifter is less than 30 supporters away from reaching 10,000 as I write this, and BTTF is less than 900 away. So we could see two projects hit the mark this week. Regarding projects based on licensed properties: I do think this could potentially be a big problem for CUUSOO. Currently, 7 of the top 8 projects are based on someone else's IP; the Western modular sets is the only one that isn't. Nine of the top 12 projects are based on someone else's IP. I think is due to 1) these properties already have a large fanbase built-in, and 2) the mechanisms already exist to communicate these projects to that fanbase, via fan websites, social media, traditional media, etc. Using CUUSOO to effectively research which licensed properties have fans that are interested in LEGO models might be part of TLG's goal here. The problem is that these projects are bundled in with non-licensed projects, which will tend to get lost in the overwhelming tide of licensed projects. I think the solution is to make to split the CUUSOO projects into two groups: one for projects that are based on intellectual property that would have to be licensed, and the other for projects not so burdened. Then TLG could raise the threshold necessary for the licensed projects to be considered, to something like 15,000 or 20,000, so they don't get overwhelmed with projects for every possible licensed property out there. I'm pulling for the modular Western project! But worried that TLG will put it aside to concentrate on ponies and such. EDIT: I just checked after posting, and the Rifter has hit 10,000. -
In a shameless plug for Kaliphlin Guild, I'd like to point out that we have deserts, forests, plains, oceans, swamps, and mountains (even with snow). We've got it all! You can build anything! But seriously, I don't think type/color of bricks would prevent you from joining whatever guild you want. Although I do think that Kaliphlin provides the most geographic flexibility
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I noticed that larger sets, such as most of the ones you mention, usually have a lower price-per-piece ratio. I think this is because 1) a higher price-per-piece ratio would make them too expensive and they wouldn't sell well, 2) packaging and distribution costs are probably lower per piece on larger sets, and 3) some costs are fixed and not dependent on the number of pieces (e.g. marketing, back office, etc).
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Kaliphlin Guild: Homepage, Sign-up and Discussion
NiceMarmot replied to Si-MOCs's topic in Guilds of Historica
Wow. That's looking great! That's one mean-looking guardian of the crystal you have there! -
I think the number one reason a set is expensive is because TLG thinks they can charge a higher price for it! In general though, I believe that unique, rare, and new parts make a set more expensive, as do larger pieces. I also suspect that some themes and/or sets are more likely to be bought by older children with their own (allowance) money (e.g. Harry Potter), whereas City is probably more bought by parents for their younger kids, and they might not be as price-sensitive as a pre-teen with their limited funds, especially for larger sets. Here's a good discussion on LEGO set costs on FBTB. In a nutshell, the actual cost of the ABS is practically negligible. The mold is expensive (from $5K - $100K), but for common pieces can be amortized over a large run (>$100mm pieces, over several years). But for parts that won't be used very much, the mold could contribute significantly to the part cost. A $20,000 mold amortized over 100,000 units is $0.20 per unit -- that's a lot more than the common $0.10 target. How many sets sell over 100,000 units? From an interview on Gizmodo in 2008, TLG sells 7 sets per second. That's 220 million sets per year. Currently they sell about 8 sets per second; or about 250 million sets per year. From that interview (and a few other sources), it appears that the number of sets per year is in the 180-200 range; let's assume 200, as we want sets-being-made, not just sets-introduced. So the average set sells somewhere around 1.25 million units per year. Given a two year run, the amortized mold cost for that special, unique piece is only $0.01. Not much. You'd have to have a lot of unique/rare pieces in a set to justify a real price bump. Revenue in 2011 was 18.731 billion DKK, of which DKK 18.507 billion was for goods (not licensing), or $3.461 billion. That's only $13.73 average per set. At 36 billion bricks per year, the average set sold has only 143 parts! In 2011, they break out operating expenses as follows: DKK 3.1b - raw materials and consumables (packaging?). This is 17% of goods revenue; not a negligible amount, but only 11% of retail price (see below). DKK 3.4b - employee expenses. 18.4% of goods revenue, or 12% of retail price. DKK 0.64b - depreciation and amortization DKK 1.25b - license and royalty expense, most of which is paid to KIRKBI, the family investment firm, for use of the LEGO brand. TLG doesn't actually own the LEGO brand; KIRKBI does. Of course, KIRKBI owns 75% of TLG... DKK 4.66b - "other external expenses", by which I suppose they mean other suppliers, shipping, utilities, etc? Note that TLG lists the "production costs" as DKK 5.519 billion, which probably includes the DKK 3.1b materials, DKK 1.1b of employee expense, DKK 0.441b of depreciation & amortization, and about DKK 0.9b of those license and royalty and "other external expenses". That's about 30% of the goods revenue, or just over 19% of the retail price. Let's guess that 3/4 of the licensing/royalties are to KIRKBI, and therefore only 1/4 (DKK 0.313b) are 'production-related' (i.e., licensed themes). Then that 0.9b breaks into DKK 0.313b of L&R and DKK 0.587b of "other external expenses". BTW, my guess is that the mold costs are in that depreciation and amortization, as they would be capitalized and then depreciated over their effective lifetime. R&D costs were DKK 335 million, or $62.6 million. I'm guessing this covers the designers' costs, and any industrial R&D to improve manufacturing. So, assuming a 35% retail margin, the average set is sold at retail for $21.12. That's $0.148 per part; I think it's skewed higher because this includes non-sets like magnets, CMFs, keychains, etc, which are pricier per part than ordinary sets. Our average set's 143 parts cost $2.33 in materials and consumables, or $0.016 per part (and that includes packaging). Given that, the cost of ABS could have an impact, but not much more than probably 5% of a set's price. I mean, how much could it go up, or how much could a few big pieces (DINO) skew the raw materials cost? I'm guessing that bigger pieces might have a bigger impact on the packaging cost than the ABS. Each piece's total production costs are only $0.028 -- that includes materials, packaging, production labor, utilities, shipping, etc. So here's the breakdown of the retail price, based on a 35% retail margin (may not add up due to rounding): 35% - retailer's margin 15% - TLG profit! 14% - non-production-related "other external expenses" 11% - raw materials and consumables, probably including packaging 8% - non-production TLG labor (sales, admin, marketing, HR, finance, IT, etc) 5% - taxes 4% - production TLG labor 4% - license and royalty expense, some of which is basically profit to the family, the rest is probably for licensed themes 2% - production-related "other external expenses", probably utilities, suppliers, shipping, etc. 2% - depreciation and amortization Always nice when one of the top two items on the list is your profit! So why would a set be more expensive? The biggest things that stand out are: 1) giving the retailer a bigger markup, perhaps because the set isn't as attractive to the retailer, 2) TLG profit, or they think they can charge more because it will still sell, 3) materials and/or packaging is more expensive (I'm guessing packaging is more of a factor here). Interestingly, I don't see license fees as adding significantly to TLG's costs for a set. If you estimate that half their sales are licensed themes, and even if 1/2 the L&R expense is for licensing themes (as opposed to KIRKBI), then theme license costs only add 4% to the retail price of a licensed set as opposed to a non-licensed set (and I'll be it's actually lower). I suspect that on average, licensed sets are more than 4% more expensive than non-licensed sets (per part), so the rest must be pure profit for TLG and the retailer. No wonder we're seeing more licensed themes -- they're more profitable than non-licensed. OK, I got totally carried away with this. I'm sure that's way more analysis than you really wanted to know...
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REVIEW: 6866 Wolverine's Chopper Showdown
NiceMarmot replied to Clone OPatra's topic in LEGO Licensed
Oooh, nice dark-red! Not totally enthused about the copter, but the minifigs are good, all that dark-red is useful, and could always use a motorcycle. Plus the price is right! Didn't see any analysis of the parts really, so I'm guessing that there weren't any totally new parts or anything super interesting... Thanks for the review! Have a friend who is a heli pilot; will have to ask him about the dual tail rotor thing... -
Usually they're out on a display shelf, or on the shelf where the empty PAB cups are. A few times I've asked if they have them, and they've had a few in the back that they hadn't put out on the shelf yet. Doesn't hurt to ask.
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Kaliphlin Guild: Homepage, Sign-up and Discussion
NiceMarmot replied to Si-MOCs's topic in Guilds of Historica
WarnIcarus - that's a really nice collection of MOC photos there. There are definitely some that I haven't seen before. Some of them are quite amazing and inspirational! I'm going to have to look at them a bit more to take it all in... Thanks for posting them! -
Just add some scattered smaller plates on the ground, in tan, dark tan, and reddish brown, to give it a bit more texture. Like 1x2s, 2x2s, and 2x4s.
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Nocturnus Guild: Homepage, Sign-up and Discussion
NiceMarmot replied to I Scream Clone's topic in Guilds of Historica
They're $0.25 each from LEGO Shop@Home, so that's definitely not the way to go. I have seen them at the store's PaB wall, back in early 2011 or so. I bought quite a few of them, but unfortunately don't know how many I was able to fit in. I'm guessing that you could probably fit between 100 and 150 of them in a large cup. In the US, large cups are $15, so that's $0.10 to $0.15 each. Definitely cheaper than BrickLink, but not by much. Haven't seen them in the PaB wall since then however. So unless someone spots them in a store somewhere near you, or is willing to buy them for you and ship them, it might be better to use BrickLink. Try posting in this thread and asking if anyone has seen them in their local store. -
Best/most needed bricks for castle building?
NiceMarmot replied to daisy's topic in LEGO Historic Themes
There is a thread for this already, but I can't find it either. In my experience, you're going to need (in light bluish gray or tan, unless otherwise indicated): 2x4 bricks for walls 2x2 bricks for wall-ends and doorways 1x2 and 1x1 bricks for various places 1x3 bricks for the crenellations (or use 1x2 bricks) longer 1x bricks for the walls just under the crenellations; I tend to use 1x4, 1x6, or 1x8s Window 1 x 2 x 2 2/3 with Rounded Top (reddish brown) window panes for the above windows arches for doorways and windows (3659 or 6182 for windows, 3307 for doorways) 2x2 corner bricks are useful for recessed arched windows 2x2 and 2x1 inverted slopes plates for roofs and walkways stairs various dark bluish gray slopes for rocky landscaping green plants (Bamboo Leaves and Plant Flower Stems mostly) green plates for grass blue plates for water reddish brown, tan, and dark tan plates for dirt I disagree about PAB cups -- I think they are the cheapest way (in the USA) to acquire bricks for castle-building (with certain exceptions). You can get 169 2x4 bricks in a large PAB cup (see how here), plus say another 20 or so 1x4 tiles down the sides, a few 1x1 round plates, and 12 or so 1x2 bricks around the bottom. At $15/cup, that's $0.08 per 2x4 brick, less if you factor in the other tiles, 1x2 bricks, and plates. Tan 2x4 bricks in any real quantity (you're going to need hundreds) are at least $0.12 each on BrickLink in the US. Dark tans in quantity are $0.13, dark bluish grays and light bluish grays are $0.15. As for 2x2 bricks, tan ones are $0.06 on BL, but better than $0.04 in a PAB cup. If you see light bluish gray 2x2s at the PAB wall, load up -- they're $0.09 each on BL in quantity. Many other bricks are much cheaper in the PAB wall than on BrickLink. For instance the arched window frames are about $0.10 in quantity on BL; but only occupy about $0.058 worth of space in the cup, and you can fit something inside them. The bamboo plants are $0.04 in quantity on BL, and I'm sure you can cram them into a PAB cup tight enough to blow that number away. Same with the Plant Flower Stems; you can really pack a ton of them in. Of course -- you also need to factor in gasoline, sales taxes, and your time. And Medieval Market Village is another great set. At $99.99 full price, its 1601 pieces are about $0.06 each, a very good price per part ratio. Sometimes you can find it on Amazon for $89.99. -
Great list of techniques! Shouldn't this be in the LEGO General Discussion & News forum? Seems to me that it applies to a lot more than just Historic Themes, such as Pirates, Town, etc. And maybe it should be linked to from the first post of the Advanced Building Techniques thread in that forum. Although that post hasn't been edited in a while. Ugh, that's the problem with discussion boards -- if it's not stickied, it disappears from view unless someone bumps it.
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I had started last week to create a list on the Wiki of links to interesting building techniques, because there were so many cool things being done here in GoH, and I was losing track of all the neat techniques I wanted to try. I had started bookmarking them, but that quickly got a bit unmanageable. I've only got a few tree techniques listed so far, but feel free to add to it.
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Regarding size limitations in the challenges -- I have mixed feelings about this. I don't want to disadvantage those who have limited funds and/or collections by making all challenges unlimited, but I don't want to unnecessarily restrict those who build on a huge scale (it's darn cool when it works). It seems that sometimes a size restriction can really provide an interesting twist to a contest however, and challenge people to create in a small space. Some huge builders may find it a new challenge to have to fit their story into 32x32 or 16x16 -- sort of like an epic poet taking part in a limerick or haiku contest. It's no different than telling people they must build a watchtower, or build all in blue, or whatever. So my take on this is: let's have some unlimited contests, where people can really strut their stuff, and let's have some contests with size limitations, to force people to be creative within certain parameters.
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Mitgardia Guild: Homepage, Sign-up and Discussion
NiceMarmot replied to Sirens-of-Titan's topic in Guilds of Historica
I could certainly use another week, as I'm traveling this coming week. But I also understand how that might be a bit unfair to those who've gotten their builds done earlier. Or maybe it gives them more time to refine their entries. -
Eastern Archery Tournament in Mpya Stedor
NiceMarmot replied to Maxim I's topic in Guilds of Historica
Wow, terrible shooting in this round. That wind is really messing things up. Hope it dies down before the next round. -
I like the pearl-gold and red roofs of those turrets; that looks like a good, innovative design. I think I know how they are made, but maybe you could post a close-up pic sometime? And the rest of it is, well, just massive and awe-inspiring!
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Looking good so far! Nice story, and good vignettes. Didn't know there were factions in Mitgardia plotting against the High King!
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I think that's Kai from Ninjago
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Kaliphlin Guild: Homepage, Sign-up and Discussion
NiceMarmot replied to Si-MOCs's topic in Guilds of Historica
Oh no! One of our very top builders is out of the challenge! Perhaps his expedition was waylaid somewhere in the Rakath Mountains by a band of sneaky Drow! This is a huge blow to Kaliphlin. I'm on vacation next week, and currently have the ideas and story ready, but nothing built beyond a few small experiments. I guess I'll have to double down the last week and really work on it. It won't be my best effort, but I'll try hard to get something done. -
Kaliphlin Guild: Homepage, Sign-up and Discussion
NiceMarmot replied to Si-MOCs's topic in Guilds of Historica
Bummer. Just noticed that I lost my artist's palette tag sometime in the past few days. Still have the Lion Knights shield. Guess I better go create some new maps or something to get that palette tag back! And, is anyone else besides me worried about getting this third challenge build done on time? -
Very nice ending! Did you just whip up that Mountain Pass Keep today? Wow, fast building! Great MOCs and great story.
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Yes, those pearl lattice window panels are quite a steal when they're in the PAB wall, since they don't take up much room at all in the cup and for some reason cost a fortune on BrickLink! Nice haul, although I don't know what you're going to do with 380 of those 1x2 bley tiles with gauges. I've got several hundred from grab-bags, and have never used more six or eight of them! Let me know if you find a good use for them...