Should I wait for a set to go on sale?

[lego townie]

I'm an AFOL that has just restarted my love affair with LEGO this past December, and I have an unstoppable appetite for all things City/Town. As a result, this year has been quite a disaster on my bank account with all those pilgrimages to the LEGO store, TRU, lego online, ebay, and bricklink.

While I concentrate my acquistion on the City/Train line, some other sets have captured my attention, namely the newest Harry Potter Hogwarts Castle set (for the cool parts and much needed female minifigs). It'd be nice to own it, but I'm not dying to get it right away. There are comments from lugnet and brickset regarding the old Hogwarts Castle sets in which the posters say that they were able to buy the sets at significantly discounted prices after the initial release.

As I'm trying to control my LEGO spending and give my credit card a reprieve, I'm gambling on the chance that 5378 will go on sale later on, and I may be able to pick up the set at at least 30% off the original price. For the much more experienced LEGO fans out there, do you think my bet is correct? Also, do you have some kind of well-developed gut feeling that tells you a certain set will be discounted later on?

Thanks!

[natelite]

it's hard to time when to buy or know what will be a blockbuster seller. in general if it is not city or star wars, the chances of being on sale is much higher. city and start wars sets are hardly on sale and usually sell out very fast if ever on sale.

what i do is if it's available from B&M stores, i will buy it there. shipping for online purchase kills most deals anyway. the good thing with B&M purchase is if it later went on sale i can return the original purchase for full refund. :-P

[snefroe]

well, if you're in the US, chances are you'll find the castle at a ridiculously cheap price at the end of the year. My advise: wait untill the end of the year when shops are creating space for 2008 sets