Why the drastic rise in prices for the chase minifigs?

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

I'm no expert on economics or anything of that sort, but it seems that during the last five or seven years rare figs have gotten a higher demand.

When Lego was about to release Mr. Gold I didn't think it would be selling for these prices. Seeing as the chrome C-3PO was from a licensed property, was limited to 10,000 figures, and was available in the $100-$200 range even two years after being produced, I imagined that even if Mr. Gold is twice as rare, the prices for it would not exceed those of the chrome 3PO. However, this hasn't happened, seeing as Mr. Gold is still selling for at least $500ish. Why is this? Is it because interest for Lego figs has increased? Should we expect that if special figures like the chrome 3PO or Vader are again inserted on random sets they will be much more expensive to purchase, in the ranges of Mr. Gold? Or is Mr. Gold simply not comparable to those figures for some reason?

Have the comic-con figs had an effect on this? Back in the day, I remember the most expensive figs were a couple of rare Star Wars ones, plus a couple more obscure Lego super rare figs. There were maybe 5 figures that were impossible to get cheaper than $70, unlike today. The trend for really expensive figures continues. Your thoughts? Is it going to become nearly impossible for the average Joe to get this kind of chase figures? Is Mr. Gold ever going to reach a reasonable price range? Will future chase figures (excluding the Comic-Con ones, which are exclusive to the event and thus will always be expensive) be equally as expensive to get?

[BrickG]

If they don't go down after the initial release they'll probably only go up unless there's a crash. Lego has been mostly immune to crashes with it usually only happening if an newer version of a model is released and even then they still remain expensive.

[legoman19892]

Because people are willing to pay. If no one bouht tbe figs at that price the cost woild go down.

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

Because people are willing to pay. If no one bouht tbe figs at that price the cost woild go down.

Of course. But why didn't this same thing happen 7 years ago with the chrome C-3PO, for instance? The prices were not this high.

[opn2]

Edited September 27, 2014 by opn2

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

There's your answer. 7 years ago, Lego wasn't nearly as popular or mainstream as it is today. There has been an immeasurable increase in the number of people taking an interest in Lego in that period of time. Fewer interested people means less demand.

Would you mind explaining how you know this? Any numbers perhaps? I for one have not seen that significant increase you are talking about. To me, Lego is not significantly more popular today than back then, but I have no numbers to back this up.

Edited August 4, 2014 by johnnyvgoode

[opn2]

Edited September 27, 2014 by opn2

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

I'm speaking from a North American point of view, so things may differ from your part of the world. Lego was much slower to gain popularity in the US and Canada than it was in the rest of the world, especially Europe. It was really only during the 1980's that it became a widely available toy and has grown increasingly popular since. However, in the past ten years, it's popularity has increased notably - again, at least in North America. In the 90's it was widely parroted that 'only the rich kids' had Lego. Lego is now cheaper in North America than it's ever been before. There are now Lego video games and movies, and licensed themes involving hot properties like Super Heroes and Star Wars that have drawn in people that would not otherwise have been fans of Lego beforehand. You'd be hard pressed to come across a child here that doesn't have some sort of Lego toy in my experience - which was not the case here 10 years ago.

I wouldn't know where to find numbers to share with you, but I'm sure other members would know of some. In the past 10 years Lego has recovered from a dire financial situation to become the world's number 2 toy company, so that speaks volumes in and of itself. The only thing I could think of to look up was some Google data. Here's a graph showing how many times the word 'lego' was used in search terms in the past 10 years. As you can see it's progressively gotten higher and higher with time...

Ahhhh, I see! All of this was unknown to me. That is very interesting information you showed.

[kibosh]

I would agree, form a North American perspective, LEGO has grown immensely in popularity. I substantiate this with my observations of clearance sales. 10 years ago, I could go into numerous Target stores and buy hundreds of dollars of LEGO clearanced at 70% off. Today, I'm lucky to see LEGO at 30% off. There are more collectors, and there are also the soccer moms buying up LEGO for their kids or for resale.

[Cara]

I agree that I rarely see LEGO sets go on sale any longer (more than the odd $1-2 target type deals).

As for the minifigures, I have seen a lot of the counterfeit ones in the local markets and if you don't know what you're looking at (and sometimes even if you do!) they are improving so much they are becoming harder to distinguish. Any of those expensive bricklink minifigures could be the next one mass copied and at that stage its hard to guarantee that the one you are buying secondhand is real.

If you visit the Super Hero section on this board you will see that for personal use there are people willing to buy these counterfeits since they are an affordable alternative. Whether this would impact people that were willing to buy at a higher price, I can't say.

[SweetiePie88]

I agree that I rarely see LEGO sets go on sale any longer (more than the odd $1-2 target type deals).

Agreed. WM clearances are far and few between around here lately. Either the sets are stuck in the clearance aisle for ages waiting for the price to eventually be dropped down or sold or sent back. Target is very few and far between as far as good sales go and when they do have clearance it's either gone b4 I get there or it's something i'm not interested in.

[HawkLord]

I think Mr Gold was a much different example than the chrome SW figures, as Mr Gold had no level of mystery if you were able to feel the bags. Plus, it was a good time to release a Mr Gold level figure as so many people were collecting full sets of CMFs, unlike SW where your collection would be reasonably intact if you were missing a chromed version of a figure. Mr Gold made completists go bonkers.

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

I think Mr Gold was a much different example than the chrome SW figures, as Mr Gold had no level of mystery if you were able to feel the bags. Plus, it was a good time to release a Mr Gold level figure as so many people were collecting full sets of CMFs, unlike SW where your collection would be reasonably intact if you were missing a chromed version of a figure. Mr Gold made completists go bonkers.

Hmmmm, so the consensus would be that it's because of an increase in popularity in Lego, and possibly the difference Hawkman is mentioning?

Hawkman, I'm not too sure I agree with you. Most Star Wars collectors probably saw the chrome C-3PO as the way the minifigure should be (since in the movies it is metallic). Plus it was a main character in a very popular series of films, and it appeared in all 6 films. An argument could be made that not all Star Wars collectors collect Lego, though. It just seemed weird to me that a character like Mr. Gold that did not exist until a couple of years ago is more expensive than this chrome figure that represents a character that has been popular since 1977. Maybe this is too specific a comparison, though, and we will only know how things have really changed if a similar licensed chase figure is released again. I really hope it's completitionists, like you said, because otherwise these figures will become impossible to obtain in the secondary market.

[62Bricks]

It may not be a question of general popularity but more of a matter of LEGO using a different market strategy. The CMF series are a different product than the building sets. They are sold in closed bags so you are not supposed to know what you're getting. They're like Pokemon cards or baseball cards.The chase figures are there to encourage more purchases (in the same way a slot machine puts its maximum jackpot payout in big lights on top of the machine). By making the cost to play relatively low, more people participate, which increases demand.

The C-3PO figures were inserted in regular sets. There was no marketing from LEGO to encourage you to keep buying whole sets until you found one. That would have been a very expensive endeavor.

[HawkLord]

Chrome C-3PO is certainly how the figure should have been, but at that point so many C-3POs had been made I think it was a moot point. Even now, I have so many C-3POs, it would be a hard sell to get me to chase down a chrome one, but that's because I'm not a completist.

Meanwhile, Mr Gold is completely unique having never been offered before.

[Jared]

There's your answer. 7 years ago, Lego wasn't nearly as popular or mainstream as it is today. There has been an immeasurable increase in the number of people taking an interest in Lego in that period of time. Fewer interested people means less demand.

I'm speaking from a North American point of view, so things may differ from your part of the world. Lego was much slower to gain popularity in the US and Canada than it was in the rest of the world, especially Europe. It was really only during the 1980's that it became a widely available toy and has grown increasingly popular since. However, in the past ten years, it's popularity has increased notably - again, at least in North America. In the 90's it was widely parroted that 'only the rich kids' had Lego. Lego is now cheaper in North America than it's ever been before. There are now Lego video games and movies, and licensed themes involving hot properties like Super Heroes and Star Wars that have drawn in people that would not otherwise have been fans of Lego beforehand. You'd be hard pressed to come across a child here that doesn't have some sort of Lego toy in my experience - which was not the case here 10 years ago.

I wouldn't know where to find numbers to share with you, but I'm sure other members would know of some. In the past 10 years Lego has recovered from a dire financial situation to become the world's number 2 toy company, so that speaks volumes in and of itself. The only thing I could think of to look up was some Google data. Here's a graph showing how many times the word 'lego' was used in search terms in the past 10 years. As you can see it's progressively gotten higher and higher with time...

As someone who has many friends doing economics in university, I asked them and these seemed to be the along the lines of the answers they gave. Since more people have entered the hobby, there's a higher circulation of money, and you're getting people who have more money and are willing to pay that higher price. Hence why Mr. Gold is so extremely expensive.

Also, nice idea uding google data!

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

It may not be a question of general popularity but more of a matter of LEGO using a different market strategy.

You bring up some valid points. I guess we'll only be completely sure of the extent of the effect that the increasing demand has had on these minifig prices if Lego does something similar to the chrome 3PO or Vader again.

Chrome C-3PO is certainly how the figure should have been, but at that point so many C-3POs had been made I think it was a moot point. Even now, I have so many C-3POs, it would be a hard sell to get me to chase down a chrome one, but that's because I'm not a completist.

Ahhhh, but that is relative! I for one am not a completist, but I'm a huge Star Wars fan and I LOVED the chrome 3PO the first time I saw it, although I already had a couple and usually one of any character is good enough for me. Instead, when I saw Mr. Gold, I thought it was a nice idea, but didn't love the figure as much. Of course all of this depends on taste, but I believe probably a big chunk of Lego fans would say the same about the two figs. I'll admit we're comparing two very different figs, though, and the only three things they have in common is expensiveness, rarity, and "chromeness".

Edited August 8, 2014 by johnnyvgoode

[rollermonkey]

See also:

http://www.eurobricks.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=96101

[ummester]

It may not be a question of general popularity but more of a matter of LEGO using a different market strategy. The CMF series are a different product than the building sets. They are sold in closed bags so you are not supposed to know what you're getting. They're like Pokemon cards or baseball cards.The chase figures are there to encourage more purchases (in the same way a slot machine puts its maximum jackpot payout in big lights on top of the machine). By making the cost to play relatively low, more people participate, which increases demand.

The C-3PO figures were inserted in regular sets. There was no marketing from LEGO to encourage you to keep buying whole sets until you found one. That would have been a very expensive endeavor.

I think this is an important ingredient here.

Yes, LEGO is more popular now, especially in North America, than it has probably ever been.

I think there has also been a conscious effort on behalf of TLG to increase popularity of the minifig as a collectable item.

The combination of these 2 factors has led to some ridiculous minifg desire amongst buyers. You can sell the minifgs from an old Star Wars set on Ebay for more than what you can sell the complete set.

Edited August 8, 2014 by ummester

[62Bricks]

I wouldn't know where to find numbers to share with you, but I'm sure other members would know of some. In the past 10 years Lego has recovered from a dire financial situation to become the world's number 2 toy company, so that speaks volumes in and of itself. The only thing I could think of to look up was some Google data. Here's a graph showing how many times the word 'lego' was used in search terms in the past 10 years. As you can see it's progressively gotten higher and higher with time...

I know you're just using this graph as an illustration and not intending to prove anything, but increased Google searches over time do not really indicate an increased interest in LEGO. There are other explanations for this graph:

1. It is only one source. Thre are other search engines, each competing for a share of the market. If Google's share of the market increased over this time period, then one would see the number of Google searches for LEGO increase (and the number would decrease on, say, Yahoo and Bing). It might not indicate an increased interest in LEGO, just a shift in search traffic between search engines.

2. Internet commerce has increased over time. As usage of online commerce increases, you might expect online searches for products to increase, also. It might not indicate an increased interest in LEGO, just a shift to online purchases from in-store purchases.

Those are two other possibilities for the upward trend in the graph. The data within the graph suggests some other interpretations, as well. You can see that the number of searches spikes toward the end of each year. This is possibly because the sales of LEGO products spikes at Christmas time. That might indicate that those searching for the products are parents buying sets for their children and not necesarily adults buying sets for themselves - and it is adults who are driving the secondary market for bricks and minifigs. Most 8-year-olds are not saving up $1000 to buy a Mr. Gold.

At any rate, it is an interesting graph. With some supporting information and with other possible causes factored out, you could probably chart the increased interest over time based on this data.

[AwesomeBantha]

Not sure if I'm the first person to mention this:

TLG might come back with a new Cloud City Boba Fett/Lando Calrissian.

Some rare figures could get a newer version of themselves-like Jango Fett, and the price of those drastically fell.

But they'd never re-release Mr.Gold; he was a one-off promo to celebrate 10 successful figure waves. Also, they made a big deal about it-advertising in LEGO shop orders and on the website.

More people know about him and there is higher demand.

Therefore, owning Mr.Gold is practically a risk-free investment because there is literally a 0% re-release possibility.

[TheLegoDr]

But newer versions of some characters doesn't change the price or demand that much. People still want the early Boba even though he is hideous (imo) compared to the updated version.

[CastleDefender]

There's your answer. 7 years ago, Lego wasn't nearly as popular or mainstream as it is today. There has been an immeasurable increase in the number of people taking an interest in Lego in that period of time. Fewer interested people means less demand.

I agree. I am from Asia, there are much more pple interested in lego now compared to many years back. Maybe it is the marketing strategy of lego. The release of collectable minifig series also contributed to arouse interest of many new AFOLs.

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

But newer versions of some characters doesn't change the price or demand that much. People still want the early Boba even though he is hideous (imo) compared to the updated version.

I think it depends on how iconic the original figure is seen. I for one decided to get a version of all the major SW characters in their original versions, and was very pleased to find most of them at cheap prices. I honestly love the Cloud City Boba Fett even though the modern one is nicer and closer to the original.

But they'd never re-release Mr.Gold; he was a one-off promo to celebrate 10 successful figure waves

Therefore, owning Mr.Gold is practically a risk-free investment because there is literally a 0% re-release possibility.

I wouldn't say 0% probability (I personally find it a little fishy that they chose 5,000 as the number of Mr. Golds, as though another 5,000 were planned for the future), but I agree it's very unlikely we'll ever see a re-release. Moreover, I'm willing to bet that Lego will release chase figures similar to Mr. Gold in the future, probably in the CMF theme as well. Maybe a Ms. Gold or Mr. Silver... And that would be the nightmare of completists. Not sure how likely it is for them to do it, but they do it a lot of other figures in the CMF theme.

Edited August 15, 2014 by johnnyvgoode