Product cycle patterns?

[Zeya]

I'll state the question up front and then ramble a bit so you know where I'm coming from. My question is: how do Lego product cycles work? When are new sets released to the public, and when are old ones taken off? Is it a continuous thing, or do they chop up the year in quarters or halves and release a whole bunch of stuff at once? I'm wondering in particular when the next "wave" of products is. (Is everything set in stone for the holiday gift-buying season now? How long after Jan 1st will it be until the new wave of sets?) Basically, how does Lego go about releasing new stuff?

To explain, I'm pretty new. I assume when people say "dark age" they mean the time between when you stop playing with Lego around age 13 or so, until you're an adult. So I'm just coming out of that dark age. I guess it took me a few times walking by my local Lego store before I decided let myself start a new hobby. I ordered a bunch of collectible minifigs (series 1 set of 16 from ebay and then 16 random series 2 bags from Lego.com). I also bought the winter toy shop and bakery from the Lego store, and that's partly for my girlfriend for Christmas decorating after Halloween. What I want to do going forward is to collect all the collectible minifigures, and then one or maybe two themes. I was all jazzed to collect Pirates, but they're discontinuing it. So I'm thinking I'll collect Kingdoms because I like knights and bandits almost as much as pirates. (I grew up with both Pirates and Kingdom style sets in the 1988-1994 period, which is probably why I'd go with those). So my question is more or less asking how long the current Kingdom (for example) sets are available at retail, and then how long until there's a new wave of Kingdom sets.

Also any random advice you want to give a new guy is welcomed, too.

Thanks for reading.

[Aanchir]

Generally, sets are divided up by half-year. So, for instance, every theme tends to have a "summer wave" and a "winter wave".

However, while sets are usually designed based on these considerations, the actual release dates don't always fit to a "T". For instance, product release for the "winter wave" can happen any time from December the previous year to the coming April. Usually this varies by country, and sometimes even by retailer. And of course there are licensed themes, which tend to be strategically released to tie in with whatever movie franchise they're representing.

The main release dates, though, tend to be January (some things from this wave are actually released in December to catch holiday buyers), April, August, and October, with January and April releases tying in with the "first half" and August and October releases tying in with the "second half".

This only applies to when sets start appearing on shelves. In real life, the rules of when sets start disappearing from shelves are even more vague. Some stores may carry out-of-date sets for up to a year, while others put sets from the first half of the year on clearance as soon as the second-half sets begin to appear.

My policy has always just been to "go with the flow", reading online discussion topics to learn when new sets start appearing and when old sets start disappearing. But for sets you really want, it's usually a good idea to buy them in the same half of the year when they're released, unless your budgetary considerations outweigh your urgency to get the set.

[fred67]

What Aanchir said.

Plus... you never know how long a theme will last. Many of us were hoping that the Castle/Fantasy theme would last until they had elves (which many of us concluded they would, since they'd released a "map" as part of marketing that included a region for elves), but then they brought on Kingdoms... I've got nothing against Kingdoms, but I'd have liked some elves first.

Now on to pirates, the current incarnation of which might have lasted longer if LEGO didn't pick up Pirates of the Caribbean. If they released original pirates themed sets, they'd be competing with themselves.

In other words, you just never know... if a theme is very popular, it will last longer. Star Wars has been around over 10 years (and I've heard it's been renewed). The 9V trains were around for like 13 or 14 years. Fantasy/Castle... I don't know... 3 years?

Just depends how popular.

[Lego Otaku]

Most of the current sets generally last a year* before Lego discontinue it so in most case, a minimum of 1 year on shelf. Longer depending on the stores. A few sets have been reissued but not often at all.

Lego used to keep some sets in production for a few years in the 1970's and 80's, which was a boon for little kids who needed 2 summer worth of lawnmowing job to get that big set like the Yellow Castle. I guess Lego changed that to a year to keep fresh product on shelves.

*holiday sets like 40008 Snowman Set may only get a few month of production run and released a few month before the target holiday. With the exception of 10199 Toy Shop, holiday never gets reissued.

[r4-g9]

based on this i don't think that kingdoms will last next year.

[MetroiD]

First off - welcome to EB, I hope you really enjoy your "new-found" hobby :)

Concerning product cycle patterns, Aanchir's explanation has been pretty detailed, so I don't think I can add any more info to that. I would however like to add my 2 cents regarding Kingdoms seeing as it's the theme you've picked as a favourite.

Whether it's Castle, Knights' Kingdom I or II, Fantasy Era, Castle again, or Kingdoms as it is branded now, to me it is pretty much one LEGO line that has included different features over the years. Just like you could have been sure that the Forestmen wouldn't have lasted forever back in the late 80s, you're guaranteed that the current incarnation of Kingdoms creatures / knights / factions will also disappear after a few years and be replaced by something new. That, however, does not in any kind or form mean that the general theme is over - after all, Castle / Kingdoms or however you'd like to call it has been one of the longest LEGO themes and I don't see how or why they'd stop producing it. So r4-g9, you could rest assured that Kingdoms will be here for some time.

Generally, Castle/ Fantasy Era/ Kingdoms sets last for roughly a year before they're replaced on the shelves by something new. That said, set availability regarding Castle/ Kingdoms products in shops is very hard to gauge with some sets lasting surprisingly long and others becoming a rarity in almost no time. Surely, that has to do with TLG's marketing policy regarding the respective theme, and their attempts to boost the sales of a certain set, or make sure it's sold out at regular prices before introducing new, similar sets, so as to avoid having to cut prices.

In recent years there have been many sets, including Exclusives, whose prices have been cut towards the end of their shelf life in an attempt (at times desperate) to clear off remaining quantities of such products. It is my personal belief that while many people have struck a gold mine there and are now reselling those sets MISB at outrageous prices, TLG themselves have learned from their mistakes and are much better prepared to gauge market demand. So I wouldn't expect too many sets to be offered at discount prices, let alone Exclusives, which TLG has started to handle with much caution (e.g. the Winter Toy Store) by limiting production runs and thereby hugely increasing demand over a shorter period.

All in all, Aanchir's advice is what you should generally try and follow, otherwise you might find yourself having to pay double for a set that you'd expected to be able to snatch at a bargain price.

[Zeya]

Hmm. Thanks for the awesome responses.

I'm looking at this page:

http://lego.wikia.com/wiki/2010

And it looks like for Kingdoms, almost all sets, including the 3 big ones, were released in May. And then there were a couple of the 30-some-brick sets released in August, and then the Advent calendar in October for the holidays.

In 2009, the Castle series were all (except one) released in the summer. (And then there's that Medieval Market Village set that looks awesome. I need to get that.)

So I guess any new Kingdoms sets would arrive for 2011 in the spring or summer timeframe, assuming they don't discontinue it, of course. A "little birdie landed on my shoulder" and showed me a German catalog of future things to come. I didn't spot any Kingdoms/knights/etc sets in there, but hopefully those catalogs come out multiple times a year.

Well thanks again. I learned that my shipment of series 1 collectible minifigs arrived this morning, so I'm looking forward to opening them when I get home. My series 2 random ones should be arriving from S@H on Wednesday or even tomorrow as well.

[fred67]

(And then there's that Medieval Market Village set that looks awesome. I need to get that.)

Ahhh... Medieval Market Village is probably the nicest I've ever bought. It sort of transcends various castle themes... I should pick up another before they disappear.

In recent years there have been many sets, including Exclusives, whose prices have been cut towards the end of their shelf life in an attempt (at times desperate) to clear off remaining quantitiess of such products. It is my personal belief that while many people have struck a gold mine there and are now reselling those sets MISB at outrageous prices, TLG themselves have learned from their mistakes and are much better prepared to gauge market demand. So I wouldn't expect too many sets to be offered at discount prices, let alone Exclusives, which TLG has started to handle with much caution (e.g. the Winter Toy Store) by limiting production runs and thereby hugely increasing demand over a shorter period.

I agree with this... if you try to wait until they go on clearance, you will very likely miss popular sets; if they even make it to the point they go on clearance, people will buy them up very quickly... I would say that if you're a day late, you'd miss out, but in reality it's more like an hour.

[MetroiD]

Regarding the Medieval Market Village that both of you guys seem to want to buy - you'd better hurry up there, I have this weird feeling that we won't be seeing much more of it after December 2010. I might of course be totally mistaken here, but it looks pretty logical for LEGO to give it one final good production run for the holiday season this year, after which it will probably be retired, thus concluding the standard 2-year lifespan of an Exclusive set. And judging by the great sales that this set has enjoyed, once it stops being available at S@H, prices will surely start skyrocketing.

[Condor]

A lot of great information in this thread. The only thing I would add is to look out for those clearance sales. Since you're in the US, I assume you have a Target and/or a Walmart nearby, so check them out every so often and you might a pleasant surprise.

If you want any exclusive set though (MMV, Emerald Night, Green Grocer, etc.) buy them when you can, because they rarely go on sale and when they're gone, prices will skyrocket.

[drdavewatford]

Interesting that a number of people have commented on the Medieval Market Village in this thread. I personally think it's one of the best sets that LEGO has ever produced, and it was in fact voted "best ever set" in a recent poll of Brickish Association members. It can be hard to predict which sets will turn out to be "future classics", but this set is surely a nailed-on certainty in that regard. It's been around a while now, so surely can't last much longer. If I was you I'd therefore prioritise getting this set over the newer Kingdoms sets because (1) I think it's better, and (2) it might not be around for much longer.

Dr. D.

[Zeya]

I caved in and ordered the Medieval Market Village from S@H. I guess it's an early Christmas present to myself. I was tempted to buy 2 of them, one for reselling, but then I decided I didn't want to be "that guy", lol. The medieval market looks really cool with a lot of specialized pieces and cows and such. I really hope there are more things like that next year; I hope they continue to put out some sort of knights/medieval theme.

I also ordered another 16 collectible minifig series 2 packets, because I only got 8 of them in my first order of 16.

[Itaria No Shintaku]

I can add a few lines.

I was chatting with my trustful shopkeeper, and he said that Lego has a division for each country in which they see which series sold the fewest. Then, they focus commercials on the sets who sold less so that they can be sure they will sell also those ones. The shopkeeper was also a little surprised from my question: "where the unsold go" since he said that it very very rare that some set stays unsold for more than a year and an half. He said that he has only one set from 2009, it's a big Indiana Jones set, but he is sure that he will sell this at Christmas.

By the way, I think that when "Kingdoms" was pointed to be discontinued, I think he didn't mean the whole Castle line, just the "Kingdoms" which is good but not really appealing if compared to Fantasy Era. I think everyone can agree.

What if... I don't know, but... what if Lego put an Elf in Collectible Minifigures #3 to let people buy a lot of bags, before releasing them in sets in late 2011? If they did the other way around, much less Green bags would be sold, wouldn't them?

[fred67]

By the way, I think that when "Kingdoms" was pointed to be discontinued, I think he didn't mean the whole Castle line, just the "Kingdoms" which is good but not really appealing if compared to Fantasy Era. I think everyone can agree.

Kingdoms? It's already slated to be discontinued? What the heck? Actually, a lot of people prefer the "realistic" theme over the fantasy one. Not me, however. I know I'm beating a dead horse, but they should have released a few elf sets before starting Kingdoms.

What if... I don't know, but... what if Lego put an Elf in Collectible Minifigures #3 to let people buy a lot of bags, before releasing them in sets in late 2011? If they did the other way around, much less Green bags would be sold, wouldn't them?

People would still want one, though, because it would likely be a bit different... but they wouldn't want an army of them (I wouldn't mind 10 or 20, but I'd be happy with 5).

[MetroiD]

Kingdoms? It's already slated to be discontinued? What the heck?

No, it is not. And as I said earlier, it won't be anytime soon.

@Itaria: I think you missed the point there. "Castle" was the name under which this theme has been known for decades now and "Kingdoms" has officially replaced that name as of 2010, while also introducing a new chapter for the theme. Just as was the case with Fantasy Era and Castle, I see no reason why TLG would not introduce new factions or entire chapters to the theme while still keeping it all under the "Kingdoms" tag.

[Legoist]

Most of the current sets generally last a year* before Lego discontinue it so in most case, a minimum of 1 year on shelf.

I think this is quite pessimistic. Indeed some sets last 1 year but I would say that "generally" 2 years is more likely. There are clearly sets that last longer, I think the average could be somewhat higher than 2.

Edited October 7, 2010 by Legoist

[Itaria No Shintaku]

@Itaria: I think you missed the point there. "Castle" was the name under which this theme has been known for decades now and "Kingdoms" has officially replaced that name as of 2010, while also introducing a new chapter for the theme. Just as was the case with Fantasy Era and Castle, I see no reason why TLG would not introduce new factions or entire chapters to the theme while still keeping it all under the "Kingdoms" tag.

Ok, maybe I put my hopes to see Fantasy Era II soon into the point.

[Aanchir]

No, it is not. And as I said earlier, it won't be anytime soon.

@Itaria: I think you missed the point there. "Castle" was the name under which this theme has been known for decades now and "Kingdoms" has officially replaced that name as of 2010, while also introducing a new chapter for the theme. Just as was the case with Fantasy Era and Castle, I see no reason why TLG would not introduce new factions or entire chapters to the theme while still keeping it all under the "Kingdoms" tag.

People are concerned about Kingdoms possibly ending because none of the leaked info on 2011 sets has hinted at Kingdoms sets. So needless to say, it's possible that Kingdoms, if not ending, will at least be taking a break during winter of 2011 (unless LEGO's effectively kept the Kingdoms line a lot more secret than the other 2011 lines).

[robuko]

Welcome Zoya!

have a look on brickset, choose the themes you like, and collect away. Old themes are often as good as new ones, and cheaper too. There is a very deep and liquid market in old lego on eBay and bricklink.

Robuko

[fred67]

No, it is not. And as I said earlier, it won't be anytime soon.

I guess what I meant was, then, the current "Kingdoms" theme.

I agree with Itaria No Shintaku... Fantasy II, give me some elves. Sorry, I know I'm getting repetitive.

That said, do we have a theme name? If we had a name like "Castle/Fanstasy Era," what is it now... "Kingdoms/<something>?"

I know LEGO may not officially name them, but what about AFOLs?

[Aanchir]

I guess what I meant was, then, the current "Kingdoms" theme.

I agree with Itaria No Shintaku... Fantasy II, give me some elves. Sorry, I know I'm getting repetitive.

That said, do we have a theme name? If we had a name like "Castle/Fanstasy Era," what is it now... "Kingdoms/<something>?"

I know LEGO may not officially name them, but what about AFOLs?

It doesn't need to have a subtitle like Fantasy Era did. The only reason there was "Castle/Fantasy Era" was to distinguish the most recent castle theme (crownies vs. fantasy bad guys) from previous themes, the same way that there were sub-themes in the 90's like Dragon Masters (a fave from my childhood), Royal Knights, Wolfpack, Dark Forest, and Fright Knights. Naturally, the difference with Fantasy Era is that the good guys and bad guys are packaged together in one subtheme, but that's been a trend in all themes since around 2001 (pretty much starting with Life On Mars, although that didn't have any "bad guys", per se).

Kingdoms would only need a subtitle if there actually existed sub-themes of Kingdoms. And there aren't-- Kingdoms is an independent theme, and if not then it could be considered a Castle subtheme of its own.

[Tyrant]

People are concerned about Kingdoms possibly ending because none of the leaked info on 2011 sets has hinted at Kingdoms sets. So needless to say, it's possible that Kingdoms, if not ending, will at least be taking a break during winter of 2011 (unless LEGO's effectively kept the Kingdoms line a lot more secret than the other 2011 lines).

The information we have only covers the first part of the year. It isn't a matter of Kingdoms being kept under wraps better than anything else. It's a matter of the information not being available outside the company yet. Either that, or we truly have seen everything and there are less than 10 new Star Wars sets next year. I find that doubtful to say the least. The information we have isn't everything for 2011, so there's no point asking if the sky is falling yet because we don't have information that we wouldn't have even if they officially released all of the information on what is coming out during the next "phase". Could Kingdoms be over? Sure it could be. Is the lack of pictures any reason to think that? No. Not even close.

Edit to add:

I mentioned this in the Historical forum and I finally started looking through past posts. In this thread (on this that page) in post number 2735 on September 14th of last year the question of sets next year (which would have been the then hypothetical 2010 line up) first crops up. This is followed by a few people trying to tell people how it all works and a few people talking about how Castle won't continue. Kingdoms exist, so the worrying was baseless and pointless and have no connection to the actual facts on hand.

Edited October 7, 2010 by Tyrant

[Aanchir]

The information we have only covers the first part of the year. It isn't a matter of Kingdoms being kept under wraps better than anything else. It's a matter of the information not being available outside the company yet. Either that, or we truly have seen everything and there are less than 10 new Star Wars sets next year. I find that doubtful to say the least. The information we have isn't everything for 2011, so there's no point asking if the sky is falling yet because we don't have information that we wouldn't have even if they officially released all of the information on what is coming out during the next "phase". Could Kingdoms be over? Sure it could be. Is the lack of pictures any reason to think that? No. Not even close.

Edit to add:

I mentioned this in the Historical forum and I finally started looking through past posts. In this thread (on this that page) in post number 2735 on September 14th of last year the question of sets next year (which would have been the then hypothetical 2010 line up) first crops up. This is followed by a few people trying to tell people how it all works and a few people talking about how Castle won't continue. Kingdoms exist, so the worrying was baseless and pointless and have no connection to the actual facts on hand.

You basically just repeated my entire post in different words. The only reason I posted that was to explain to fred67 why people earlier in the post were making that assumption, not to attest to its veracity or likelihood.

To quote my original post, broken down a bit with emphasis added:

it's possible that Kingdoms, if not ending, will at least be taking a break during winter of 2011

In other words, in my post I laid out the exact same facts you just explained in two much longer paragraphs. I don't know why you thought you needed to repeat what I had already said, unless you were assuming that I myself expected Kingdoms to end. Which is not even remotely true.

This interpretation of your post upsets me, but I won't pass judgement since it's quite possible I'm the one who's misinterpreting your post's intent. I just hope this post leads to a clearer mutual understanding between us.

On a side note, the parenthetical section about LEGO keeping Kingdoms sets more secret than the rest of the line was a joke. Keeping sets secret from the retailers who are supposed to buy them doesn't make much sense. And there's no reason why Kingdoms of all themes would be kept confidential, seeing as it's not a huge license like the heavily-speculated-upon Pirates of the Caribbean theme.

[Tyrant]

In other words, in my post I laid out the exact same facts you just explained in two much longer paragraphs. I don't know why you thought you needed to repeat what I had already said, unless you were assuming that I myself expected Kingdoms to end. Which is not even remotely true.

This interpretation of your post upsets me, but I won't pass judgement since it's quite possible I'm the one who's misinterpreting your post's intent. I just hope this post leads to a clearer mutual understanding between us.

On a side note, the parenthetical section about LEGO keeping Kingdoms sets more secret than the rest of the line was a joke. Keeping sets secret from the retailers who are supposed to buy them doesn't make much sense. And there's no reason why Kingdoms of all themes would be kept confidential, seeing as it's not a huge license like the heavily-speculated-upon Pirates of the Caribbean theme.

I can explain fairly simply. We are approaching winter 2010. You mention that they might take a break for winter 2011, which is the latter part of next year. I know that the bulk of the winter we are approaching will actually occur in 2011, but people call the line up we have for 2011 the spring line up (or at least most of the other products I deal with seems to use that term when talking about January through summer, even though it only applies to three months in that time period). I took it as your points leading to you concluding that in 2011 we would possibly not see any sets. I was stating that given what we know, there is no way to draw that conclusion even though it could come to pass. I believe we have a different idea when we say winter 2010/2011 of what time period we are talking about. That coupled with the fact that you were replying to a post trying that was trying to tell people to stop worrying lead me to believe you were saying the opposite of what I was saying and I was trying to explain why there was no concrete reason to believe that. At least that is how I have usually seen it written up as winter 2010/2011 and how I usually think of it so I would say I misunderstood what you were saying in the post I was quoting. That and I honestly didn't notice that you had previously posted your longer post (didn't notice it was the same person I was replying to anyway).

[MetroiD]

Aaaaand there's another crucial nugget of information regarding product cycle patterns (to go back to the original topic at hand): Do not believe the prelim pics / catalogues hype, for those can at times be extremely misleading, especially if you like jumping to conclusions.

@Aanchir & Tyrant - you guys rock. This has been enlightening, to say the least! ;)