Secret Enemies - Day Four

[Dragonfire]

It was a possibility I was suggesting since we have to look at all the possible options.

Ultimately, it all boils down what win condition the scum are aiming for. According to the rules there are two, if they're going for the "pass 6 mafia cards" then they could very well just confirm a townie to make themselves look trustworthy, there's no immediate need for a godfather.

If they're going for the second win condition then yes, I agree they would want to confirm the GF as town. The scum neeed the godfather to achieve that win condition and would need to make him look town.

Why couldn't the scum be going for both? Trying to make the GF look town, but keeping "option 1" as a back-up plan should "option 2" fail....

I think Scott should be the next TCC, all this discussion about the investigation result has allowed him to slip out of the spotlight completely.

Why Scott out of all people? Why him and not Christina, Erik or Michael? This is odd since "slipping out of the spotlight" is a phrase more commonly attributed to scum rather than town, but we don't want someone suspicious to be TCC... Also, he hasn't actually been under the spotlight at all. Are you confusing him with someone else?

Speaking of which, I've noticed all of us have been discussing all the possibilities about who may or may not be scum, yet neither Ralph, Joshua, nor Anne have actually said anything about it.

Joshua and Ralph came on after the investigation result but not since the town policy got passed, I think. I can see Anne reading this thread right now, she should be saying something soon.

[Actor Builder]

What would I say?

I've provided the informative information I received from my investigation, as well as the number of cards I drew.

I know that Joshua is scum and I am not, but due to the process of things, and the logical process at that, I can say nothing to dissuade anyone from or persuade anyone to, more or less than a 50/50 trust foundation.

If you have any questions about the procedure in which I investigated Joshua, I'll be happy to answer.

Or, if you want to talk about life, or the problems you may be having within, I am a great listener.

Joshua is scum, as per my investigation. I don't think Bob would lie about that, unless it's an absurd game mechanic, so for me personally, I know of one confirmed Scum (Joshua), one confirmed Town (Me) and one that I don't exactly know where to place (Anne). It could be either way for her, I think.

But though I have said words, I have added no more substance than I had previously, because I could not. For really, it is 50/50 to someone who didn't see the investigation result, as I did with my own blankly staring printed-on eyes. It's unfortunate, really.

[jluck]

Exactly. The only person I think is town right now is Lindsey. Tomorrow, I'd suggest putting someone completely new in as TCC, like Christina, you, Michael or Scott (where is Scott, by the way?)

From what I've seen, the TCC, rather town or scum, rather has their hands tied. if they're handed a town and mafia card it'd be extremely bold for them to pass the Mafia card knowing that the mayor would call them on it. I'd suggest possibly using our "no" votes tomorrow to get a mayor that we want. That's the real power.

[fhomess]

Joshua is scum, as per my investigation. I don't think Bob would lie about that, unless it's an absurd game mechanic, so for me personally, I know of one confirmed Scum (Joshua), one confirmed Town (Me) and one that I don't exactly know where to place (Anne). It could be either way for her, I think.

Ralph... no one thinks Bob lied to you about Joshua's affiliation. What everyone is questioning is whether or not you lied to us about what Bob told you. Or rather, more bluntly, that's exactly what Joshua is accusing you of. One of you is lying. It's basically impossible for us to know who.

But though I have said words, I have added no more substance than I had previously, because I could not. For really, it is 50/50 to someone who didn't see the investigation result, as I did with my own blankly staring printed-on eyes. It's unfortunate, really.

Tell us your thoughts on Edward or Lindsey or Robert, then.

From what I've seen, the TCC, rather town or scum, rather has their hands tied. if they're handed a town and mafia card it'd be extremely bold for them to pass the Mafia card knowing that the mayor would call them on it. I'd suggest possibly using our "no" votes tomorrow to get a mayor that we want. That's the real power.

This is a bit disingenuous. A town TCC should almost never pass a mafia card. A scum TCC can simply argue the mayor lied about what was given to them. It sets up a conflict between the two, but that's not one that the TCC is necessarily going to come out of on the wrong side. It's a reasonable play, and you're smart enough to have thought of that already.

[mediumsnowman]

My apologies for my absence, I have been rather busy, and have only had time to briefly skim the thread for updates, which Robert has been so kind as to point out.

Since I'm town, I believe there is a very high probability that Ralph is scum, and discarded a town card in order to pass two mafia ones to me. This discredits the only confirmed townie and furthers their win condition.

Lindsey is most likely town as he has now passed two town policies.

If Ralph is scum Joshua is town. I think he also lied about the investigation result to draw attention away from himself.

Unfortunately this entire argument is based upon the assumption that I am town (Which I am), so I don't blame you for being skeptical since there is no way to confirm anything in this game... of life.

Ideally I would like to be installed as TCC again (as I know I'm town), but I can see the benefit of electing some of those who thus far have been able to stay out of the spotlight.

[Chromeknight]

... I can see the benefit of electing some of those who thus far have been able to stay out of the spotlight.

There's that phrase again.

It does not mean what you think it means.

[Peanuts]

Ive added the governments name to the earlier analysis and my own thoughts are in bold.

Day one

Deck holds 11scum 6town

Mayor (Enward-chromeknight) draws 2scum 1town-Why are we assuming that Edward told the truth here? if he got 2 town and 1 scum it'd benefit a scum player to lie to through off card numbers in future rounds.

Discards a scum

TCC (Lindsey-KH) plays a town Lindsey looks town to me, but Edward and Lindsey are not both scum most certainly

I agree, this would be an ideal way for the scum to throw us off the correct odds and create missing cards by discarding a town policy if we assume a scum policy was discarded. But I haven't been assuming he's been telling the truth, I think if he is town, he discarded a scum policy, if he is scum, he discarded a town policy. It's more likely that teh third card is a scum card.

Day two

Deck holds 9scum 5town we think

Mayor (Joshua-peanuts (scum?)) draws* 3scum this has a likelyhood of (9c3*5c0)/(14c3)=3/13 or 23%

Discards a scum*

TCC (Robert-dragonfire) plays a scum

Day 3

Deck holds 6scum 5town

Mayor (Ralph-actor builder) draws* 2scum 1town you're assuming this is the case, but it's possible Joshua is scum, lied about receiving 3 scum cards, and Ralph did get 3 scum cards. If Joshua (who we're told was investigated as scum) lied, then Ralph could have gotten 3 scum with a probability of nearly (7c3*4c0)/(11c3)= 10%. I think this indicates that it's more probable that Joshua was telling the truth, but it's still quite possible that Joshua lied and Ralph didn't. One thing seems certain, they aren't both town as that probability is nearly 5% that Ralph pulls 3 scum given that Joshua also pulled 3 scum cards.

Discards a town

TCC (Anne-mediumsnowman (town?)) plays a scum i think we can trust Anne was given 2 scum cards. It's not guaranteed but it feels more likely than not. I don't have numbers on this one.

Also, it's impossible both of us are town as Ralph claims I am investigated scum.

But if you assume I'm scum, I'd be in league with either Joshua or Ralph. Do you think that's the case? Really?

Well, nobody should rule it out. I'm not saying you are scummy, but it's not like you're confirmed town or that you've been strongly against both me and Ralph before this "investigation result". So it's possible that you have are just scum trying to look active, or you are town doing what a townie should do.

I think this is quite misleading, especially the bit about me. You say this:

I take it that you're referring to myself (along with Anne and Joshua). Yet earlier you said this:

You're clearly taking the opinion here that I might be scum and it's essentially a 50:50. So why did you say that "best case scenario, we've identified three scum" when one cannot possibly identify my alignment in this case? We'll never know whether Joshua discarded a scum or a town card, so how could you ever be "sure" I was scum?

It's not 50:50. I know I am town, but as Michael demonstrated, it's more than twice as likely I was given three scum cards than that Ralph was given three scum cards. Which means that with a chance of more than two thirds, Anne is town. And making the Godfather a TCC is only a risk once four scum policies have been enacted. At least if I understand this correctly. Can you confirm, Bob, that this is how it works? Has the scum to enact four scum policies and then install the godfather as TCC, or has the Godfather to approve the fourth scum policy?

I agree with you on Lindsey, but not on Anne. How can you still advocate installing Anne as TCC again when she could very probably be the Godfather, which is exactly what the scum want! Ping.

Because you should know that it's more than two thirds that she is town, which is better odds than we have on a random person. In fact, if she was the Godfather and this was all a conspiracy by me and my scum buddies, do you think we would blow it by prematurely passing a scum policy with Anne as TCC? She should be the one person you trust to enact a town policy even if she is scum.

I think you planned it like that. Ralph discarded a town policy, but to distract from himself, he investigated a townie as scum. The best thing you can do is try to cast doubt on a confirmed townie, and you can do that only by investigating me as scum. However, if Ralph decided all on his own to just investigate me, it is extremely suspicious, so thankfully you just happened to suggest that he should be investigated. And now you advocate against having Anne as TCC, even though she is more likely to be town and should not pass a scum policy eevn if she is the godfather.

Ideally I would like to be installed as TCC again (as I know I'm town), but I can see the benefit of electing some of those who thus far have been able to stay out of the spotlight.

I don't really think this is a good idea per se. Staying out of the spotlight is not a qualification we are looking for in a TCC. We want townies, and we don't want the Godfather after four scum policies have been passed.

[jluck]

This is a bit disingenuous. A town TCC should almost never pass a mafia card. A scum TCC can simply argue the mayor lied about what was given to them. It sets up a conflict between the two, but that's not one that the TCC is necessarily going to come out of on the wrong side. It's a reasonable play, and you're smart enough to have thought of that already.

Actually, I'm smart enough to disagree with you. I don't think a scum tcc would risk exposing themselves to suspicion, especially early on, by creating a 50:50 scenario where either they or the mayor is lying. an investigation of them or the mayor would immediately prove one was scum and also clear a townie. It'd be a net loss play I'd think. That's why I think tomorrow we should focus on the mayor choice so closely, the tcc is pretty much a pawn til 3 scum cards are passed.

*sorry, I meant 4 scum cards are passed.

[fhomess]

Because you should know that it's more than two thirds that she is town, which is better odds than we have on a random person. In fact, if she was the Godfather and this was all a conspiracy by me and my scum buddies, do you think we would blow it by prematurely passing a scum policy with Anne as TCC? She should be the one person you trust to enact a town policy even if she is scum.

I think you planned it like that. Ralph discarded a town policy, but to distract from himself, he investigated a townie as scum. The best thing you can do is try to cast doubt on a confirmed townie, and you can do that only by investigating me as scum. However, if Ralph decided all on his own to just investigate me, it is extremely suspicious, so thankfully you just happened to suggest that he should be investigated. And now you advocate against having Anne as TCC, even though she is more likely to be town and should not pass a scum policy eevn if she is the godfather.

Stop throwing math around like it's meaningful. 2/3, or whatever you claim the odds are on Anne, are not statistically significant enough to base a course of action on. If you and Anne are scum/Godfather, you had no way to control what cards Anne got from Ralph and it just didn't work out for you.

Are you pushing Anne to be a future TCC then?

Actually, I'm smart enough to disagree with you. I don't think a scum tcc would risk exposing themselves to suspicion, especially early on, by creating a 50:50 scenario where either they or the mayor is lying. an investigation of them or the mayor would immediately prove one was scum and also clear a townie. It'd be a net loss play I'd think. That's why I think tomorrow we should focus on the mayor choice so closely, the tcc is pretty much a pawn til 3 scum cards are passed.

*sorry, I meant 4 scum cards are passed.

Only early on. We've already passed the point of any more investigations happening. There's no longer the same level of risk. The TCC is not a pawn at all, although I do agree we need to be more mindful of the Mayor going forward. I still think it was a mistake for us to vote the early councils through so quickly. We lost the chance to see who other mayors would have nominated.

[Peanuts]

Stop throwing math around like it's meaningful. 2/3, or whatever you claim the odds are on Anne, are not statistically significant enough to base a course of action on. If you and Anne are scum/Godfather, you had no way to control what cards Anne got from Ralph and it just didn't work out for you.

Are you pushing Anne to be a future TCC then?

Statistically significant? What exactly are we testing for? And can you elaborate why maths is not meaningful? It's more likely I was given three scum cards than Ralph, that's a fact. Why would you disregard that info?

And how about my other argument, which is not based on maths at all? That if Anne is the godfather, having her as TCC is not worse than any other scum, but it would even be stupid for the scum to expose her by enacting a scum policy right right now. If Godfather Anne enacts the third or fourth scum policy, nobody would ever accept her as TCC again and in the best case she would be killed with the next scum policy. Town wins.

What exactly didn't work out? Anne got two scum cards, we can all agree on that. How is that bad for the scum? What exactly is your theory?

As long as the scum hasn't passed four policies, I think this is the best course of action. If you disagree, please explain why.

[fhomess]

Statistically significant? What exactly are we testing for? And can you elaborate why maths is not meaningful? It's more likely I was given three scum cards than Ralph, that's a fact. Why would you disregard that info?

My point is that a 1 in 3 chance of Anne being scum is still a very large chance. The odds that you got 3 scum cards and Ralph got 2 scum/1 town versus you got 2 scum/1 town and Ralph got 3 scum are not different enough to based any course of action on that would include either of you in an elected body. Heck, I'm the one most open to the idea that you both were telling the truth and got 3 scum cards each. Given one of you is scum it seems unlikely, but it's certainly possible. I'm disregarding the math because the odds are too close. If it was 1 in 20, that's a different story. It's not.

And how about my other argument, which is not based on maths at all? That if Anne is the godfather, having her as TCC is not worse than any other scum, but it would even be stupid for the scum to expose her by enacting a scum policy right right now. If Godfather Anne enacts the third or fourth scum policy, nobody would ever accept her as TCC again and in the best case she would be killed with the next scum policy. Town wins.

I don't even know why you're arguing this point. You seem dead set on convincing the rest of us that you and Anne are both on the up and up rather than helping us with a more logical course of action that helps us understand the bigger picture. You've got tunnel vision on this particular issue.

What exactly didn't work out? Anne got two scum cards, we can all agree on that. How is that bad for the scum? What exactly is your theory?

See, you're not even following your own theories properly. You stated that it would be silly for the scum team to set up Anne and then have her pass a scum policy this early. But the TCC doesn't control what cards they get as Michael has pointed out several times. Maybe you tried to set her up thinking there was no way she wouldn't get a scum policy from a townie Mayer but then the mayor got 3 scum cards and Anne was forced to pick a scum card after all. Heck, maybe it's driving you batty because you and Ralph both really did get 3 scum cards and there was nothing you could do about it.

As long as the scum hasn't passed four policies, I think this is the best course of action. If you disagree, please explain why.

Because there's a really good chance that Anne is scum. I think it's at least 50/50, you say it's 33%. Either way, that's too much to risk when we have others who are much less likely to be scum and some who we still need to get any sort of read on because they haven't yet been part of a government.

[Peanuts]

My point is that a 1 in 3 chance of Anne being scum is still a very large chance. The odds that you got 3 scum cards and Ralph got 2 scum/1 town versus you got 2 scum/1 town and Ralph got 3 scum are not different enough to based any course of action on that would include either of you in an elected body. Heck, I'm the one most open to the idea that you both were telling the truth and got 3 scum cards each. Given one of you is scum it seems unlikely, but it's certainly possible. I'm disregarding the math because the odds are too close. If it was 1 in 20, that's a different story. It's not.

Without any definite town reads, there is a chance like that for everyone being scum. I admit the probability that Anne is town (from your point of view, from mine it's 100%) is not much larger than for a random person.

I don't even know why you're arguing this point. You seem dead set on convincing the rest of us that you and Anne are both on the up and up rather than helping us with a more logical course of action that helps us understand the bigger picture. You've got tunnel vision on this particular issue.

See, you're not even following your own theories properly. You stated that it would be silly for the scum team to set up Anne and then have her pass a scum policy this early. But the TCC doesn't control what cards they get as Michael has pointed out several times. Maybe you tried to set her up thinking there was no way she wouldn't get a scum policy from a townie Mayer but then the mayor got 3 scum cards and Anne was forced to pick a scum card after all. Heck, maybe it's driving you batty because you and Ralph both really did get 3 scum cards and there was nothing you could do about it.

I could have done that, but at this point, that kind of plan would be null and void. I'm not saying you should have her as TCC after the scum managed to pass four policies, no matter what the odds are. That would be stupid. But for now, this is why the TCC matters:

You said it yourself, there could be a town mayor and a scum TCC. the town mayor could give the TCC a scum and a town card, and the scum TCC could enact the scum policy and claim the mayor was lying. We have no investigations left, so we could not prove one of them wrong. Best case for us, we will eventually get a kill and kill the scum. Good for us, but not a knockout. Or we believe the TCC and eventually kill the mayor. Bad for us.

Now, if we have a town mayor and Anne, there are two cases:

1) I am telling the truth and Anne is investigated town. Exactly what we want, a town TCC.

2) Anne is the Godfather. I am scum. If she passes the scum policy, nobody would believe her and we probably would kill her soon, if not immediately, because the mayor controls the action and knows she was lying. The town wins, we pull out liquor and party hats. Or she plays along, and passes town policies. Again, that's exactly what we want.

So, how about a scum mayor?

1) She is town. They give her two scum cards, blame her for the scum policy. Because you are already weary, you believe her, maybe kill her. The game does not end, as she is not the Godfather. We now know both the mayor on that day and Ralph is scum, so even though four scum policies will have been passed until that day, we should have a pretty good idea who not to trust. I'm not sure who comes out ahead in this scenario, and it's the one I'm most afraid of.

2) She is the Godfather. They work together. She gets killed.

I don't believe naming someone TCC gives us much of a read on them. When they have no choice, we learn nothing. When they have a choice, scum can always pick the one that is better for them, lay low when they cannot take the heat, and enact a scum policy when they can get away with it.

Because there's a really good chance that Anne is scum. I think it's at least 50/50, you say it's 33%. Either way, that's too much to risk when we have others who are much less likely to be scum and some who we still need to get any sort of read on because they haven't yet been part of a government.

I think we can talk already about who we want to see as TCC. Obviously I don't want Ralph. I am also suspicious of Robert. I do have a slight town read on Christina, because her behavior and reasoning seems more like a townie's than a scum member's. The Lindsey-Patricia government worked, so I'd have no problem giving either of them another term, of course not tomorrow. And it should be noted that Patricia admits she got two town cards, so no choice there, and as I said, no read.

Edward said he discarded a scum policy, or he may have been scum discarding a town policy, but the former is more likely. Also, he has been rather active today, so I'd be support him as TCC tomorrow. On other people I don't really have a read on, but I feel people who lay low are more likely to be scum, so I'd prefer a person who I have a town read on (or who I know for sure is town, but you don't) as TCC.

[Dragonfire]

I'd suggest possibly using our "no" votes tomorrow to get a mayor that we want. That's the real power.

That's a good idea, actually.

It's not 50:50. I know I am town, but as Michael demonstrated, it's more than twice as likely I was given three scum cards than that Ralph was given three scum cards. Which means that with a chance of more than two thirds, Anne is town. And making the Godfather a TCC is only a risk once four scum policies have been enacted. At least if I understand this correctly. Can you confirm, Bob, that this is how it works? Has the scum to enact four scum policies and then install the godfather as TCC, or has the Godfather to approve the fourth scum policy?

Because you should know that it's more than two thirds that she is town, which is better odds than we have on a random person. In fact, if she was the Godfather and this was all a conspiracy by me and my scum buddies, do you think we would blow it by prematurely passing a scum policy with Anne as TCC? She should be the one person you trust to enact a town policy even if she is scum.

But surely scum would want the Godfather to look as townie as possible so that, in the future, town would elect him/her as TCC to give scum the win? What if that was your plan, and it failed because of bad luck (town-Ralph receiving three scum cards, forcing GF-Anne to play a scum card and look bad as a result)?

Just because Anne played a scum card doesn't mean that this couldn't have been your plan. I'm really not sure which of you and Ralph is scum, but I would strongly advocate against installing any of you (Ralph, Joshua, Anne) as TCC for the foreseeable future.

I think you planned it like that. Ralph discarded a town policy, but to distract from himself, he investigated a townie as scum. The best thing you can do is try to cast doubt on a confirmed townie, and you can do that only by investigating me as scum. However, if Ralph decided all on his own to just investigate me, it is extremely suspicious, so thankfully you just happened to suggest that he should be investigated. And now you advocate against having Anne as TCC, even though she is more likely to be town and should not pass a scum policy eevn if she is the godfather.

So now you're accusing me of being scum for asking Ralph to investigate you? To be honest, I did suspect you of being scum and discarding the town policy, and I thought that if Ralph was town, his investigation could clear two people of being scum (you and Anne) and give us some confirmed townies who we could trust, or nip a potential scum plot in the bud. I don't know whether the latter occurred, or whether Ralph himself is scum and took the opportunity, so I'm not prepared to trust any of you for the time being. I also don't like how you're (over)using mathematical statistics to try to get us to believe that Anne is more likely to be town than the rest of us. I understand that it's a 100% thing from your point of view if you're town, but the threat of her being the Godfather is too much for us to consider putting her in a position of power again.

Also, I'm a bit confused here, how would it have looked more suspicious (assuming Ralph and I are both scum) for Ralph to have checked you all by himself than to risk outing a second scum just to throw doubt on an investigation result?

Because there's a really good chance that Anne is scum. I think it's at least 50/50, you say it's 33%. Either way, that's too much to risk when we have others who are much less likely to be scum and some who we still need to get any sort of read on because they haven't yet been part of a government.

Exactly, Some of those who have been hiding in the shadows need to speak up and contribute a bit more.

Without any definite town reads, there is a chance like that for everyone being scum. I admit the probability that Anne is town (from your point of view, from mine it's 100%) is not much larger than for a random person.

I actually find this rather scummy, since you stuck mathematical figures into your previous post in many places to try to befuddle us into thinking Anne has a very high chance of being town, when in fact, from my point of view it's lower than a random person's.

I think we can talk already about who we want to see as TCC. Obviously I don't want Ralph. I am also suspicious of Robert. I do have a slight town read on Christina, because her behavior and reasoning seems more like a townie's than a scum member's. The Lindsey-Patricia government worked, so I'd have no problem giving either of them another term, of course not tomorrow. And it should be noted that Patricia admits she got two town cards, so no choice there, and as I said, no read.

I would agree with Christina, as she also looks townie to me and she hasn't had a chance to be mayor or TCC yet.

The problem is that I don't know whether Ralph is deliberately acting confused on the orders of his scumbuddies behind the scenes, or whether he is genuinely perplexed as to what is going on. He's fairly new, so the possibility of the latter action is quite strong.... but then again, he isn't contributing anything and definitely is making a weaker case for his side than Joshua is. But Joshua's much more experienced at lying and being scum, whereas if Robert is scum it will be his first time... To be honest I literally have no idea who it is between the two of you.

[fhomess]

I would rather let the mayor(s) make their own decision on who the TCC should be, and then we vote on the combined panel. Hopefully, although I don't trust some of the quieter folks for this, they've been paying enough attention to the conversation to know how some of us feel about others. I don't want to steer the mayor's decision since we then learn less about what the mayor really thinks. The mayor's choice is as important as the card choice... perhaps more.

It should be noted that Anne doesn't have to be the Godfather for both Joshua and Anne to be scum. I'm not sure that changes the picture much, if at all, but felt it was worth pointing out.

I'm ready to move on to day 5.

[Tariq j]

I would rather let the mayor(s) make their own decision on who the TCC should be, and then we vote on the combined panel. Hopefully, although I don't trust some of the quieter folks for this, they've been paying enough attention to the conversation to know how some of us feel about others. I don't want to steer the mayor's decision since we then learn less about what the mayor really thinks. The mayor's choice is as important as the card choice... perhaps more.

I agree, we definitely need some more fresh faces on the Government. And I strongly advise the next mayor we get an all TCC, one that hasn't spoken up much.

To me it's about risk, by outing Joshua as scum, Ralph as basically confirmed Anne scum/GF as well. The question is, would a scum lie and go through all the trouble and risk just to pretend two townies are scum?

[fhomess]

To me it's about risk, by outing Joshua as scum, Ralph as basically confirmed Anne scum/GF as well. The question is, would a scum lie and go through all the trouble and risk just to pretend two townies are scum?

Excellent question... how would you answer it?

[Tariq j]

That's why I'm asking, Let's assume Ralph is scum and Joshua and Anne are town. Would it be wise to out two town players as scum? Maybe it's just me, but I would have a hard time believing a scum would take that risk.

Surely if Ralph was scum, he would try and investigate the Godfather as town since they know who he is, but he doesn't know who they are. And that in turn would help them achieve the second win condition. There wouldn't be much point in trying to convince a town player was scum other than casting a load of suspicion on yourself.

[Bob]

Ah ok. The historical accounts I've playedread shuffle back in only when needed. ie. If there are two cards left in the deck and three need to be drawn, the last two were handed over and a third was given from the shuffled pile.

Perhaps GuvBob can confirm.

We have not needed to reshuffle yet, but this is the case.

[Dragonfire]

That's why I'm asking, Let's assume Ralph is scum and Joshua and Anne are town. Would it be wise to out two town players as scum? Maybe it's just me, but I would have a hard time believing a scum would take that risk.

Surely if Ralph was scum, he would try and investigate the Godfather as town since they know who he is, but he doesn't know who they are. And that in turn would help them achieve the second win condition. There wouldn't be much point in trying to convince a town player was scum other than casting a load of suspicion on yourself.

But then again, "investigating" Joshua as scum throws doubt on the investigation result on Anne. If Ralph is scum, then he's successfully gotten us not to trust either Joshua or Anne and certainly not to treat them as confirmed townies, at the expense of having himself equally mistrusted. I think that if Ralph is scum, he acted solely based on Joshua's result on Anne. What's better for the scum: no cleared people at all, or three cleared people, two of which are town? For scum, the more cleared people there are, the more likely it is that scum will be found through the process of elimination.

On the other hand, your second point could hold for Joshua as well. If he is scum, there would be no reason to investigate a random player as scum, since the mayor of a future day (who is likely to be town, statistically) would also be given an investigation and might choose to investigate him or the player he "investigated" as scum. So logically, a scum mayor should investigate his Godfather as town, since that's a lot less scummy than openly accusing someone of being scum.

[Tariq j]

But then again, "investigating" Joshua as scum throws doubt on the investigation result on Anne. If Ralph is scum, then he's successfully gotten us not to trust either Joshua or Anne and certainly not to treat them as confirmed townies, at the expense of having himself equally mistrusted. I think that if Ralph is scum, he acted solely based on Joshua's result on Anne. What's better for the scum: no cleared people at all, or three cleared people, two of which are town? For scum, the more cleared people there are, the more likely it is that scum will be found through the process of elimination.

True... I mean in two days we've gone from liking and trusting Anne as our TCC to not trusting her at all. Although like you say in your second point there's always the chance a future mayor will investigate Ralph, Joshua or even Anne herself. And if Ralph is scum its game over for him.

On the other hand though, Joshua was an easy target for the scum, not just because he investigated Anne but his government passed a mafia policy. This made it easier for anyone to point the finger at him as its more believable than I he passed a town policy.

[fhomess]

Although like you say in your second point there's always the chance a future mayor will investigate Ralph...

No, there isn't. There are only two investigations and they've now been used. Robert's comment was that Joshua ran the risk of being investigated in the future. For Ralph, there's very little lost. Robert's point applies to Joshua but not to Ralph.