Fergus Fox

Yay for town! @Hinckley, thanks for hosting a great game! Loved the set-up. Sharing the actions around and no PMs makes it more inclusive and forces us to work it out mostly in the day threads. I think I might have expressed some frustrations to you via PM about not being able to PM other players during the day, but it does make for a better game. @Calissa Cat, it really was unfortunate (for you, not us) that we randomly picked you as the target on day 1! Did you get to pick what you handed out each day?

Vote: End the day early

Can you just vote already!

Vote: Lyev Lion Please make it stop.

@Captain Godiva Why doesn't that work? Has our captain abandoned us? Can we end this early? Pretty please?

I miss these guys! Aww. I was going to volunteer!

My first thought was WTF! Looking forward to sharing a LION SANDWICH! We should probably wait for Pembroke.

Sorry for sleeping in! I did get the investigation results and Lyev is loyalist scum. Can we vote yet?

LION SANDWICH!!

I think we should continue with our current course of action (lynching Calissa), for these reasons: There is the likelihood that we won't get any actions tomorrow. However, we have tonight's actions - watcher, jailkeeper and amnesiac investigator. Assuming only one scum, at least two of these should be in town hands. These should yield some results. I am confident that we have narrowed down the list of suspects for scum, and we will still out number scum in the morning. On this point, I also agree that Lyev is looking the scummiest given his responses today. I don't think we will need actions (after tonight) to nail the last one. The uncertainty around the win conditions. We don't have the trickster's win condition and ours is not clear on whether we need to get rid of the trickster. I'd rather go for the outright win, and not risk having a draw. The rules state that a draw is possible in this set up.

The problem is (a) our win condition is not clear with respect to the trickster and (b) we don't know her win condition. If we take out all scum but let the trickster live, do we end up with a draw rather than an outright win for town? I'd rather not take the chance and instead go for the outright win for town. Plus I agree with what Pembroke said on this. Fair enough - I can see how that statement could be misinterpreted. The point was whether it should be today or another day. I agree with the bit that I bolded. What pushed her into likely town category for me was that she pushed Hendrick on the vote for Priella. Pushing back on being the framer target would have looked suspicious and probably put you on the chopping block even sooner. It was dumb luck that you were found out the first time someone targeted you. As I have said before, I assumed the unsuccessful frame was the result of a block on me at first and you wouldn't have been revealed if we had accepted that. But we went looking further because the block didn't make sense. You tried to sway us at that point by suggesting that someone was trying to make you look bad. But it would have required a role that we have not been informed about. At this stage, I really don't think there is more than what we have been told about by Omrom.

Outside of the day threads, I've only spoken to Maddock and that was a brief conversation last night. Not sure why you are responding to a question I posed to Maddock. Did it occur to you that I posed this question to Maddock because he pointed me towards you without given a reason why he thought you were scummy? I hadn't picked up on this before and it occurred to me that it might be swaying my judgement. There is zero percent chance that I am scum. Can you clarify what you mean by this? I claimed on day one because the frame was compulsive and therefore it was important for us to all know who I was going to target. Calissa was picked randomly and I followed through by targeting her with the frame action. I think she gave me the vig action on day 2 because she thought I would want to take her out. And that was my first thought, but I changed my mind when I realised she would also likely absorb that action. I have already explained my reasons for picking Wyeth as a vig target - that wasn't all dumb luck. I do think it was dumb luck that led to finding Calissa as the trickster. We got lucky that she was randomly picked to be the frame target. Some points of clarification since you seem to be reading things into my posts that just aren't there: I do think the trickster is a threat, but I think she is more of a threat to scum than town. I do think we should lynch Calissa. I concluded by suggesting that we can lynch her today because we have the numbers to hunt scum down after. I also didn't bring up the possibility of four scum - that was Hayleigh. She suggested that there would need to be four scum for my comments (in the post below) below to be valid. She failed to see (or acknowledge?) that what I was saying is that I agreed with her that it is possible that Evren is scum instead of her. But I think it unlikely. @Pembroke Panda, do you think Hayleigh is town? If so, I would like to hear why. Finally, just so everyone knows where I stand on the remaining animals (in alphabetical order): Calissa - the trickster, because the frame being absorbed is the most logical reason why my frame failed. Caylin - very likely town because she voted first for Priella and then pushed Hendrick to change his vote to Priella. The latter being the thing hat pushes her firmly into town category. Evren - likely town because he put the third vote on Priella when Priella, Wyeth and Keyarra all had two votes each on day 1. If he were scum alongside Priella and Wyeth, surely he would have put his vote on Keyarra. Hayleigh - a question mark over her because she consistently said she did not think Priella suspicious. She also said she did not think Wyeth suspicious, despite his questionable behaviour on day 1. It also bugs me that she keeps switching between thinking me suspicious and truthful - this seems to be more related to whether I am talking about her or not at any one time than any actions I have taken. Lyev - a question mark over him. He hasn't really put forward views on anyone other than Hendrick. He effectively encouraged Hendrick to nominate himself for the lynch target and he seemed to know more about the framer role than I had stated. He is now happy to point the finger at Evren, who I believe to be town as I explained above. I am still waiting for him to answer my last couple of questions. Maddock - was thinking he is town because Priellla voted for him and he changed his vote to Priella with enough time for others to follow suit and secure a lynch for the day. But I have since gone back and seen that it was pretty close to the end of the day. That, combined with noting that he pointed to Hayleigh without giving a good reason has made me question my trust in him. Also waiting for him to answer my last question. Pembroke - very likely town because he was instrumental in Priella's lynch through the analysis he presented on Day 1. He was also the fourth vote on Priella, which in my view gave that vote a critical mass. So, in summary, I think the last scum is one of Hayleigh, Lyev or Maddock. Vote: Calissa Cat because I believe her to the trickster. Taking out Calissa using a lynch today (rather than another day) also means that she won't be able to mess with tonight's investigation using that frame action she absorbed.

You mentioned Hayleigh yesterday and also overnight to me in PM, but you never did state what your reasons were for finding her suspicious, other than gut feel. What are your thoughts now?

This doesn't actually answer my questions. Again, what has Evren done to suggest to you he might be scummy? Who else do you consider suspicious? If we all watch closely, but not discuss people's behaviour or actions, we should be able to spot the scum. The reason for lynching the trickster as a way of getting rid of them is because targeting them with a kill action may result in them absorbing that action. I didn't say they were not a threat to town, only that they seem more of a threat to scum based on the wording in the rules. Just to clarify, I wasn't suggesting Calissa has to be today's lynch. The way I read the rules is that scum cannot win if the trickster is alive. So, if we lynch her today, we are effectively helping scum towards their win condition. The counter to that is we don't know her win condition and ours just refers to getting rid of threats. Also, if we lynch her today, presumably that means no actions handed out tomorrow. That could be a good or bad thing. But we should have the numbers on the town side to lynch her today, and then hunt down the remaining scum. Thoughts? Agreed - Evren could have had the insane investigation, or be scum. There is also the possibility that Evren is town and had a sane investigation, and the scum used that unaccounted for frame on Wyeth. I'm open to the possibility that Evren is scum, but I haven't seen anything from him that has made me question him.

You suggested that she might be scum trying to look good (by reporting you as town). It doesn't really matter whether it was your idea originally that this could be a possibility. Similarly, crazy and aliens have nothing to do with it either. You never really said anything about Wyeth one way or the other, despite his questionable behaviour on Day 1. You also didn't think that Priella was suspicious. Who do you think is scum? The rules state that the scum have to eliminate everyone who is not on their team, while we (i.e. town, which may or may not include you) have to eliminate all threats to town. To me, this leave the possibility that scum have more to gain by taking out the trickster than we do. Good point. What has he done to suggest he is scummy? It would be good to hear you views on who you think is scummy. I went back through the last couple of days and you said lots but there wasn't much in terms of views on anyone other than Hendrick.

Great that we got another scum! And I'm glad it wasn't the bloodbath we had expected. Sorry, horsie-poo! Caylin was the first to vote for Priella on Day one and also pushed Hendrick to vote for Priella. I'm inclined to believe Caylin is town, but nice try at making her look bad. This bugged me too because you went from saying earlier that you thought I was town to then being more suspicious than Wyeth. This feels like you were trying to divert suspicion, even more so now that Wyeth is confirmed scum. I'm inclined to think Evren is town (mostly on the basis that he voted third for Priella on Day 1), so I think it's more likely the insane investigator action or a frame by a scum. If you're scum, you probably want people to be kept in the dark. I killed Wyeth last night using the vigilante action. I tossed up between Hayleigh and Wyeth. My choice of Wyeth was partially driven on the assumption that Hendrick was scum, but Wyeth wouldn't vote for him and voted fro Evren instead. He voted for Hendrick yesterday, but the writing was on the wall for horsie-poo well before voting opened. And also a theory that Priella would have listed one scum in the three people she called out in her "why me" speech. For reference, the three were Hayleigh, Wyeth and myself. What are the chances she actually called out two of her scum buddies? And then also that we got two town results on two scum? Not looking for any data or percentages - I think we've already established the probability is low. I'm raising these questions mostly because this is the only thing that is stopping me from being sure the remaining scum is Hayleigh. My first thought when I got the vigilante action was to use it on Calissa, on the basis of wanting to get rid of the trickster. But then it occurred to me that I would probably end up with another unsuccessful result and she would absorb a kill action that she can then use on us later in the game. I suggest we don't target her with any of the actions that are being handed out today and lynch her instead. Back on the scum hunt, the adorable Omrom mentioned that the scum have their factional kill and the block tonight. Does that mean a double up of actions tonight for the last scum, or there are actually still two left? I had been working on the assumption of three because four seemed too many given we know we have a neutral. I have focused on Hayleigh so far, but I still have a question mark over Lyev. Thoughts on him to come later when I've had a chance to go back through the last couple of days.

I do, preferably with a shot of rum.

See below. Thanks. These look like the result you would get if you were successful. I think you would probably get an "Unsuccessful" if you target the trickster. I'm reading it as just a long-winded way of saying "Oops, sorry Fergus". Taking away someone's ability to defend themselves would be grossly unfair. The rules also require us to post at least once a day. More likely he is unable to speak at the moment, or he can see that his fate is sealed. I hope it is the latter. Vote: Hendrick Horse. I would have been nice to hear from him first, but I doubt he would have anything to say to change my mind.

It would also require an assumption that the scum would not be able to double up on the action. Would that hold, given the framer actions were compulsive? Would they have to give up the block or the kill to use the framer action? What would be the risk to them of letting the framer action be random, given we're not in a position to verify at this stage whether the results are accurate? Short term it would be ok, but it might backfire down the track. I agree this doesn't make sense. The block would be reported as successful or not to the person doing the blocking, not the target of the block. The issue is why was the frame unsuccessful.

Sorry, I didn't intend to twist your words. I honestly thought you were dismissing the results because they were useless. I had a look through the protective roles. Commuter (already mentioned), ascetic and role-stopper (with Calissa as the target) would also explain the failed frame action.

Agreed that we don't know how the absorber role works in practice, but it could be assumed that it was a block. In the case last night, the block didn't make any sense, and that is why we are looking further. In another circumstance, it may have been accepted as just that - a block. I agree that it's probably just what we are told are the roles in the morning for town and scum, but we don't know what the trickster has up their sleeve. Your thoughts on why the frame failed? I agree that the investigation results are not that useful, given all the possible scenarios. Hopefully, they will become more useful as information about players' alliances are revealed over time. Tomorrow's bloodbath may help with that. I don't understand why you are dismissing the frame result (or lack of it) as easily. Any thoughts on what did happen to make it fail? Our task is to eliminate all threats to town, not just the loyalists. Why loyalists as number one and not the trickster and loyalists equally as important tasks? I thought initially this was about me, but I agree that this is all about you, as I did in the post that you didn't bother quoting. I think we got lucky and stumbled across our trickster, but it seems few are on board with this. Perhaps one of your nine lives just got used up. Where's @Hendrick Horse?

Two things that came to mind when you said immunity: commuter and absorber. I don't really see us having the former given what we know of the set up so far. Unless is it a means of protecting the third party? We know from the gorgeous Omrom that the trickster has a diabolical variation of the absorber role. Would I have been unsuccessful if Calissa absorbed my role?? Also, I checked the calcs for the selection of Calissa as the target and that was correct. It could have been manipulated by working out when Govinda was likely to post and then making sure that there were enough posts before he did his vote tally. Possible, but difficult to control and therefore pull off in practice.

Here is one scenario I can see where two of the supposed town are scum: (1) Sane investigation action to you (let's assume you're town) and you investigate me correctly as town; (2) Insane investigation action goes to town, who uses it on a scum, and it comes back town; and (3) Sane investigation goes to scum, uses it on anyone (ultimately it doesn't matter who) and then reports back that one of his/her scum buddies investigated as town. This gives three reported as town, two of which are scum. Scum could have gotten a frame , used it on town, who was subsequently investigated by the insane investigator. And the other two sane investigators investigated townies. Three town results, all correct. I can't think of any reason other than to make me look suspicious. Maybe they assumed that I wouldn't be the target for an investigation. IDK.

That would be our resident motor-mouth, Hendrick, who is being very quiet today. I was affectionately calling him Horsie-poo yesterday, but I'm now thinking "Number 1 candidate for the day 2 lynch" is more appropriate. Exactly. We know that one investigator was insane, but we don't know who the other framer targeted (if anyone) and we don't know how many (if any) investigator actions landed in the scum's hands. There are so many scenarios here, I don't know what to trust, other than what relates to me because it's the only thing I can verify. Can you clarify exactly what or who you think is suspicious? Also, why would you suggest "clearly one of the 3" is scum. One, two or none of those who were investigated could be scum. Maximum is two because I am definitely town.

Nice! I tried to frame Calissa last night but was told this morning that I was unsuccessful. Presumably blocked by loyalist scum, but I don't really understand why given it was no secret what I had planned to do last night.