Leevi Lion

Thanks for having me in the game, Hinckley!

Caldwell already told us how many of his teammates are left, and by extension we can assume the Monsters had the same number of folks. Reading between the lines, Caldwell doesn't really leave room for recruitment. I think they started with 3 each and they both have been killing each night. There's probably no SK. Yeah, I think he's done... although any more information to help us catch a monster would be good, though, and knowing the starting roles for the Hellions would potentially answer some questions. Do you think the mafia teams are likely to have started with different roles? Myrtle tried to give Bennett a blocking action on Day 2 but was unsuccessful, presumed blocked. Myrtle was town. Brewer didn't block Myrtle. So a scum blocker blocked Myrtle. Of course, Brewer could by lying about blocking Myrtle, but then, that would make him scum and we'd be back at the previous sentence.

Thanks, Caldwell. That makes things simpler and probably gives us a better chance of taking out a monster if you assist us. Giving you guys a better shot at victory. Did you guys have a blocker at the start or any other roles besides killing roles?

Pernilla better unvote! Care to share any thoughts on who we ought to be particularly wary of aside from Brewer?

Who, in particular, do you think it will help us know more about? It's interesting that you remember Caldwell got a vote on Day 1. That vote was unvoted and no one who has been posting vote summaries has included the unvotes in them. I mean, that Day 1 vote was kind of a throwaway vote for the Ham Sandwich comment... Shoot, now you're making me hungry. Since you haven't explained these, yet, I'll ask again. Why Pascha and Ronan? Too bad you didn't kill Gracie... You can differentiate killer alignment by... killing them and finding out their alignment! Helpful, I know... Or if they happen to kill someone of the opposite team, but since we haven't had that from Caldwell, it's not a good track record. We know he's not a monster because if he was, he would've claimed Gracie's kill. Of course, I led this off by saying I thought he was Hellion, and so far, the claim doesn't disprove that. If he's Hellion, he can't claim Gracie's kill in the event that there really is a vig or the monsters counter claim. If he's the Vig, he's telling the truth. Yeah, the alternate night kills is the most likely if Caldwell is telling the truth. The only reason I can think of is that the Hellions were in Pierot's anti-Monster group and didn't like his line of thinking on things. I approve of these blocks. One of the mafia teams most likely. Maybe that's the answer to what the mafia teams do on nights when they can't kill. Assuming Brewer is telling the truth, then Myrtle was blocked by scum. I can't remember the last time a group of mafiosi came into one of these situations without bringing some form of blocker along with them. Haydn, who are you inclined to believe? Brewer or Caldwell? I also think the 3 kills a night is too high. I suppose the other option, that we haven't thrown out yet, is that Caldwell is actually an unblockable SK and there is no vig. That would fit the alternating night kill theories, but I'm not sure how Brewer would receive feedback for such a thing. Would Brewer be told successful if he wasn't prevented from using his block even if the block had no effect? I don't think there's a day blocker. That's too specific. I think a successful block just prevents the target from using their action, even if it happens the following day. The important thing is that Myrtle was blocked and either Brewer is lying about blocking Myrtle or someone else did it.

I'm not at all sure there isn't a monster between them. I actually think there is and have an opinion on which one, I just don't think that they're both monsters. I found it disconcerting that the Caldwell lynch, which gathered a few votes quickly, stagnated abruptly. Right now, my assumption is that folks like Gracie and whoever else are their teammates (assuming I'm right about Caldwell being a Hellion) didn't want to jump on it. The Huxley bandwagon did grow quickly after my vote. I assume the Hellions were eager to have that vote take Caldwell's place, and that the monsters weren't too eager to defend a teammate who wasn't contributing much.

Vote: Caldwell Crocodile I'm reasonably convinced that Caldwell is a Hellion. If you look back at Day 3, Gracie consistently tried to push the lynch away from Caldwell and on to Huxley. In the end, it worked, but Gracie getting taken out at night made it possible to start making those connections. Caldwell was also quite eager, right after Haydn, to join us on the bandwagon to vote out Huxley. The only person who didn't seem particularly interested in that bandwagon, but voted on it, was Ember. FWIW, I also think Whitby is a Monster. He deliberated on Huxley earlier in the day, but didn't want to commit to a vote on him. That, plus some reads on other folks gets me here. I'm voting Caldwell for now because that's my strongest read. One of the interesting aspects now, from a voting perspective, is who do the mafia teams go for. At this point, we have no indication of any 3rd killer unless some teams can't kill at night. Gracie didn't seem to think that was a line of thinking worth pursuing yesterday, and she would know. So do the mafia try to take each other out and reduce the chance of getting killed at night by the opposite faction?

Thanks for that. Did you and Ember discuss the public claim before you posted it? FWIW, I believe the claim. I think it lines up very well with the day 2 discussion and with the private chat guidelines that Shaefer has given us. I also don't think you're both monsters.

Check that... Ronan did confirm the anti-something bent, too. That means all three of the folks in the anti-Hellion group made public comments on it.

Thanks for being a timely and communicative host, Hinckley!

Maybe I just think you're weird. Most of the time, people at least acknowledge when they fall into a group they're analyzing and make some platitude about how they're town. Yesterday you went into great detail in third person. That's weird. Today you went 100% the opposite direction and ignored yourself completely. That's also weird. Hence, you're weird. Weird, weird, weird. Plus, you're a hippo. I think that's reasonable, particularly since they have to bump each other off. What do you propose that we do if we make that assumption? From my perspective, anyone calling out how confused they are looks scummy. Town don't have information, so the default position should be that of curiosity and trying to understand where the new information comes in. Pierot would not have shared information as he did unless he felt it would add to the conversation and provide some insight into what's going on here. My initial assumption at the time of Pierot's posting was that he was an investigator who could only determine one type of Mafia, and that there would be another one out there who could determine the other type. I couldn't see why either Mafia team would share that information unless they were trying to merge. That would have been an extremely blatant approach to it that could've gone south pretty quickly. The other interesting thing about it was that multiple people confirmed that it seemed reasonable. Bennett went so far as to call it out as legit. Ember also confirmed it. Of course, they're both in the same masonry, if you believe them. The business about Ronan can no longer be confirmed, and Bennett's declaration of the masonry came as a soft defense of Ember. I have an opinion on whether or not the masonry claim is real and whether or not they are both Hellion, but I'd like to hear Bennett's take on Ember and the rest of this discussion first. There wasn't anyone else who seemed particularly interested in confirming the anti-something bent, so at this point, we can only guess who may have been Pierot's partner(s) unless someone comes forward. Haydn, Brewer, and I are all out (so we claim). I don't see any reason for any of us to lie about that. It's risky if there is someone still in that group alive. That just leaves Caldwell and Whitby as possibilities.

Too bad you didn't protect Ronan. I think this confirms that Myrtle was indeed blocked, since you were able to receive the action. So either you, Ember, or both of you could be monsters. Is anyone still alive from Pierot's anti-Monster masonry? Was there any indication that you could or could not recruit from the opposite masons? Ember voted for Gracie, but Gracie was a Hellion, so that doesn't clear him from being a monster. Given that you've both been able to chat with each other in private, I'm very curious what your thoughts are on each other. Looking back at Day 2, the only people who came out publicly to confirm the concept of being particularly anti-Something all appear to be in your anti-Hellion mason group. Haydn and Brewer were the two most vocally questioning the concept, which suggests to me neither of them were a part of either group. FWIW, I'm not either. Pascha also seemed to think that there wasn't much to it, but it's not clear if she didn't know about it or was trying to pass it off as unimportant... to distance herself from it. Yesterday you had a whole post where you analyzed yourself in the third person while including yourself in a group of possible people to look at. That was weird. Today, you list all the first voters but leave yourself out. That's kinda weird.

I’m a bit surprised that everyone followed me to Huxley and no one added on to Caldwell.

We need to come to a consensus and get a mafia voted off. We currently have votes against 6 of the 10 of us. This is not good, and of course, the only person who hasn't voted is Huxley. At this point, I think it's safe to say that Whitby and Haydn aren't on the same scum team. I think it's unlikely that Brewer and Caldwell are either. Unvote: Brewer Bunny Vote: Huxley Horse

Do you always talk about yourself this way? It's kind of weird, you know. Anyone else you find scummy besides Brewer and Huxley? Apparently longer? Bennett's the only one casting a vote Huxley's way at this point, and Huxley still isn't around to say anything. I missed your comments on Haydn above. Haydn was actually curious initially about the anti-Monster comment and asked what Pierot meant by it. That looks more like fishing in retrospect now that we know Pierot was town. Pascha called it a bunch of nothing and Haydn was quick to point out he didn't think so. However, he went straight to it being a scum signaling tactic at that point. Clearly, Haydn didn't like Pierot's answer that he was not going to give out more information about what it meant.

I've gone back and reviewed a fair amount of what Ronan, Gracie, and Huxley have said, and I don't really have much of a stronger opinion about any of them than I did before I started. Huxley has used the excuse of being stuck on his farm a few times for a lack of contributions, but at some point those contributions need to pick up. The one thing that did stick out a bit was how dismissive Huxley was of Myrtle's inventor claim. That pushes Huxley a bit over the edge for me. That said, for now I will: Vote: Brewer Bunny I think the arguments made against Caldwell, who's contributions have been fairly weak, have some merit. Brewer voted for him yesterday and again today. The thing that I noticed about yesterday's vote, however, was the way in which Brewer voted for Ember quick and early, then later switched to Caldwell after the claim by Myrtle. The vote for Caldwell at that point didn't seem like it was coming... Brewer kind of went around in circles agreeing with Caldwell and saying that Caldwell was scummy, but ultimately voted for him. Today he's voting for Caldwell again, although seems to also have a big issue with Haydn.

I guess they twiddle their thumbs and complain? The only reason I think that maybe they're alternating the kill and we have a vig is that Braxton really doesn't make much sense as a night kill for either team unless they knew something about his role. He could have easily been lynched on Day 2. Now the fact that Myrtle claimed to be a day time inventor means that it's entirely possible the scum have a day time role as well, so it's possible, but it still seems pretty unlikely. I suppose Braxton's killer could've been an SK trying to look like a vig. As far as whether or not each team has 2 or 3 members, I would actually be more worried if they had 2 each. In that case, it seems likely that their teams could merge at some point and given how we haven't nabbed any of them, we'd be in pretty big trouble. At this point, I think we need them to bump each other off. I would expect conversion less and merging more, although there have been some earlier comments from folks who seemed quite convinced that they were not likely to get along. I agree with the last two points, although if Huxley is scum he's been worse than useful. This is just nonsense. How was it day one still? The highest vote getter was dead... that makes it a full day two with all the benefits thereof. Just because Braxton died during the night doesn't mean that the lynch was meaningless.

For the record, I'm not that concerned about Bennet's non-vote. Caldwell a bit more so because I feel like he's been less willing to engage in actual conversations about things. This was a weird quote from Pierot and I can totally see the Monsters targeting him because of the anti-Monster thing. PGO's absolutely can be targeted by certain actions and even want to be targeted by the scum team(s). I'm thinking that Pierot was a bit more forthcoming publicly because we don't have as much opportunity to sneak away for private conversations here at this waterfall. There's also hardly anything worth eating here, and hangry people do strange things sometimes. I really don't want to resort to eating fish. They give me nasty burps. It seems unlikely that we should be expecting three night kills at this point. If so, we'd probably have seen that already. What would not surprise me is if we have (had?) a vig and the Hellions and Monsters can't kill each night, but must alternate. I think the Braxton kill made far more sense for a vig than either mafia faction. Pierot seems like a prime target by the Monsters. I don't see why the vig would have killed him when he was quite public about having some information that others did not. That would be a very careless vig... or perhaps overzealous. As for the voting patterns, there were three people on the Braxton bandwagon that also voted for Myrtle. Those are Gracie, Ronan, and Huxley. There is only on person who has stayed away from both bandwagons. That is Bennett, although to be fair, Bennett did vote for Myrtle prior to the claim. Of those four people, Ronan got called out by Myrtle and, IMO, has been a bit sheepish and non-committal. Huxley's been relatively unhelpful. Bennett and Gracie are at least both adding to the conversation.

Eating fleas? Disgusting. I found Myrtle most suspicious on day one, leading the vote against her. My day two vote was simply a follow-up on that. After Pierot declared himself to be anti-Monster, there were a few people who referred to that: Bennet Bulldog simply said he may be on to something. Brewer Bunny asked why... and if the parrot shouldn't be anti-everything. Ember agreed that some folks could be seen as anti-Hellion in the same way that some are anti-Monster. Brewer and Pascha Poodle both then asked for more clarification, at which point Haydn said he thought it was nothing... maybe a scum signalling tactic. The conversation about it kind of died at that point, when Pierot started to bring up Brewer and Myrtle as prime targets of conversation. Personally, I think Pierot was killed for having some insight into the Ancient Ones and being anti-Monster. As for Myrtle... Huxley Horse voted to hammer Myrtle even after the inventor claim. Bennet was the only person to withdraw his vote. Brewer, who wasn't on the bandwagon, made sure to let us all know he was gong to vote for Myrtle, but not anymore after the claim... instead voting for Caldwell. Pierot was still quite convinced at the end of the day that Myrtle was scum and that Haydn was scum with him. I wonder if he still thinks that in the afterlife. Pierot had an interesting comment at the end of the day about Haydn being familiar with a scum form of communication, but not the town form. Perhaps there's something to that.

Fortunately, someone took care of Braxton last night, so even though we didn't get him lynched, the wheels spinning thing doesn't really apply anymore. I'm not sure how useful it is if we can't guarantee that the inventions stay out of mafia hands. I don't think for a minute that Myrtle was day-blocked. Myrtle was suspect yesterday and the first person targeted today. Not a prime blocking target. I'm sure there's something else going on, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if it some of the folks who are particular about certain mafia flavors have some insight into this. For those of you with insight... any reason we should not switch our vote to Bennett? Would knowing his alignment provide some possible answers? Why on earth would Sheepdog tell you why you can't give to someone. That's never how actions work. If someone gets blocked, they just get "Unsuccessful". Not, unsuccessful because scum blocked you.

I will have absolutely NO MORE of Whitby's chicken wraps! Yeesh... I blame my delayed contributions to this conversation entirely on him. Vote: Myrtle Monkey Given the indigestion I haven't had a chance to fully digest everything that's been said yet... but I haven't seen anything from Myrtle that changes my opinion from yesterday.

I don't really see the point of this vote. You knew Huxley was going to get a vote in before the end of the day. I feel like you've had decent insights into things till now. Great job making Huxley vote, I guess. I find Braxton's behavior more scummy as the day goes on, although I still think Myrtle is scummier. I disagree with the Monsieur Parrot (is the T silent?) that Myrtle is simply being sheepish. I'd be more than happy to see Myrtle go today.

Your logic really isn't crystal. If it was, people wouldn't be bandwagonning. It seems unlikely that all these folks are scum, but all you've done here is yell at them without providing any indication of how you feel about their actual behaviors. No comments on any of the candidates other than Braxton already voted on? Just a vote to get Huxley to show up? 2, maybe? Yum! Uh... I think I'll pass.

I feel like this is a deflection from someone who was called out. Haydn names Myrtle, so Myrtle votes for Braxton, the other option that Haydn pointed out. There isn't any thought behind it. The other thing odd about this vote is that Myrtle intentionally left out the fact that Haydn voted for Braxton. So Myrtle is actually voting with Haydn but doesn't really seem to want us to pick up on that. Vote: Myrtle Monkey Braxton's comments about the neutral display a lot of certainty, but the only certainty that anyone could have is if they were a neutral themselves. Our host called out that there are two mafia factions. It's reasonable for someone less familiar with convention to see that that Third Party characters are also called out and for someone to assume that they exist. Personally, I think that people are reading too much into Braxton's comment there and those accusing him for that are just being lazy. Myrtle appears to be the laziest offender. This from Braxton is something different. There's nothing helpful here. The vote is retaliatory with nothing to really explain why Haydn is scummy. Calling your behavior townie doesn't make it so. Voting only helps if you're going to explain your vote beyond "Might as well start the lynch". Why this lynch? On a slightly different note... that fabric for the bonnet isn't made from some kind of tortilla, is it? I do love me a good wrap. Might be better to take Whitby up on the fried chicken offer instead. I wouldn't want to eat Pernilla, no matter how delicious she looks, if she's some kind of oracular pig. Whitby?

It could be a 4-way if we have a neutral party. Chicken? Where?