Peanuts

Well, I think they need to try at the very least. We know I am town, and if you are too, we are almost certain to pass the fourth town policy after this. So I think either Robert or Christina is scum. Either they were lucky and Robert became mayor, or they were not, he's town and they are getting desperate. As Christina said, this is false. I am still eligible, and maybe I would be better as mayor than as TCC. Then again, we really don't want the TCC to be the godfather. I think Christina is actually right in that Scott makes a good kill target for scum Lindsey even if he's scum himself. He is not going to do anything to further the scum cause, so maybe she was trying to whack him in order to buy credibility for herself. We can be certain that if she is scum, he is not the godfather, but that's about it. I don't think the fact he wasn't taken out logically implies he is scum, though. I wouldn't mind Edward as mayor either, but I won't vote myself down on the off-chance that Edward is chosen at random. I don't want to think too highly of myself, but I'm pretty sure any TCC other than myself would have been a huge red flag (which is fitting, given that Lexington once was taken over by communists; good times). So I doubt we can infer anything about Roberts allegiance from his choice as TCC. The worst that could happen is that a scum mayor passes the fifth scum policy, kill someone (either Ralph to play along, or me if they don't bother anymore) and are close to winning. I don't think both Ralph and Robert would be on the same scum team, so either he is the godfather or he is a townie and the scum is now trying their best to fail a government that will most likely pass a town policy. I'm happy with my vote where it is. I gotta admit, it's true. In a previous life I was a pyromaniac in an asylum, so I can relate. We should have a beer sometime. Preferably before we kill you and your team. Or "make you leave the town". Which raises and important question: If the scum just leaves the town, what stops them from forming a new mafia in another town? Is Lexington's judicial system simply "not my problem anymore"? Normally, the mayor would have to step down over such allegations, but since the last properly elected mayor died they have been changing on a daily base anyway, who cares.

Can you elaborate? Is it only that Robert is pushing for people to vote quickly? Or is it the lack of opposition from any scum members? This is something that concerned me, I feel like they should push harder to do something at this point, given how close they are to winning. Or do you have a problem with me as TCC or Robert as mayor?

At least we got to the bottom of this. It should be obvious now that Ralph is scum. Well, I obviously think I'm the best candidate for TCC, so I'll vote yes. But everyone should take their time. I also don't distrust Robert more than anyone else at this point. But if I understand correctly, if this government fails, I still can be TCC, right? It's just Robert who can't eb mayor anymore. Maybe Betsy asked to be taken out, but Scott just didn't show up? I don't know if it means he's scum, but it could mean he's the godfather. Bob can't take the godfather out of the game. Either way, we can't make him TCC anyway. Even in the best case the government just fails because he's not reporting in. I agree about Lindsey. She passed a scum policy, then wanted to kill an inactive player, and had no problem killing someone instead who is now a confirmed townie. She also didn't really give us any opinion of herself, just "town doesn't like me killing Scott, so I kill Anne". And I think that just proves you're scum. Three people have accused you of being scum and you haven't even tried to defend yourself. Instead you're writing love letters to Anne. Obviously he is. He asked to be killed yesterday. His only defense is playing the lunatic by now. But you now know that I didn't lie about my investigation, unlike him. There should be no more doubt now.

I don't see why Patricia couldn't be scum. I never said she can't. It's true, it could have been Lindsey. I must have ignored her because it seemed implausible that she would draw three town policies, but it's not, as we know she drew two at least. The question is, would it make sense for a scum member to drop a town policy if the other two are not both scum policies. The scum will try to discard town cards in order to pass scum policies; so it would be beneficial to mess up the count in a way that makes the town think there are more scum policies in the deck than really exist, not fewer. I mean, I definitely don't trust Lindsey, she passed a scum policy today and tried to kill Scott before being pressured into changing her opinion. Even I agree Scott is a worse target than Anne, and I know she is town. But I just can't explain why she would drop a town policy on Day 4, potentially making it harder for her team to pass a scum policy later on. Changing the count always puts some pressure on the person who does it, especially in the first deck. it will come out at some point, and why risk the extra pressure? The entire point of the godfather is to lie low. Same goes for dropping a town policy in order to pass a scum policy, but it has an immediate gain for the godfather. Also, I don't know how much the scum can afford to waste their chances. By day six it was 3:2 for us, so I guess Christina should have felt the pressure to drop a town policy even as godfather. But why is Robert less likely to be godfather than Scott? Just because he was more active in thread and didn't sleep away the days? I read his posts with a slight tunnelvision on him being a teammate of Ralph, and I don't think he said anything that a scum member couldn't fake. He was the one who proposed investigating me, and he was the one who most vocally proposed not voting Anne into government anymore. Both these things help the scum a lot. But I suppose he's not a teammate of Ralph, unless they have given up on him. There is in that if Anne was the godfather, she would have taken up contact already. Also, those are the worst case scenarios for both these decisions. Killing Anne offers the better worst case and the better best case (she is GF, town wins), but in the middle ground, killing Ralph yields the higher pay-off. But I guess Lindsey has made her call, and she's not gonna change. If she's town, she should follow the majority; if she's scum, she should kill Anne You will be missed

Town reads no good without accusations. People have accused each other much, much less than in a mafia game. I agree we need to start using our ability to vote down governments. But having two people cleared is so much better than having one cleared. It also doubles the chances that we get a mayor who will not drop a town policy, and we will have two candidates TCC. We need any trustworthy person we can get. Between Christina, Michael and you one has dropped a town policy. I suppose usually that would be a risky thing to do for a godfather, especially with nothing to gain, as for you and Michael. Would a godfather drop a town card so they can pass two scum cards on? It puts them on the line, but if they feel it's necessary to win? If it was Christina, I guess she doesn't know who is scum, but she should reckon between Ralph and me, with two others who could have dropped the town card, she would at least not get killed for it. Robert is simple: I am a town mayor, I accidentally pick the godfather as TCC. I get three scum cards, he gets two. No choice here. Not even that much bad luck, because I can testify he got wto scum cards. Well, he did today just tell us we should kill him. I have no idea what he's doing anymore. Well, if he's the godfather he cannot have gotten a town investigation on anyone other than me, he wouldn't want to claim I'm scum if it might be true. So either he found the scum and they told him I'm town, or he found me town. I used to think Robert would have set him up by telling him to investigate me, but as he was the first to point of how scummy Ralph voting down today's government (which, in retrospect, might have been a good thing), I guess I was wrong. So maybe he actually followed Robert's advise to investigate me hoping I'm scum, and found me town. So he can't say that I'm town, or else he will double-confirm Anne. Also, people were suspicious of his behavior before, and then he passed a scum policy, so maybe he thought people wouldn't believe him that three scum cards were drawn twice in a rown, so he had to claim scum on me. Or he is just a random mafia member. If this was a mafia game, I would wonder if he is the jester. His behavior has been so erratic he could be anything. If you kill Anne, Ralph is also safe to claim to. If I was scum, wouldn't Anne be the godfather already? Isn't that the whole reason you want to kill her? So, you kill Anne, Ralph is alive, and me. One confirmed town. As you said, we have limited control over the mayors, and only one person who can be fully trusted. Even if I'm TCC on one day, there will be another on the next day. We might choose one of Christina, Michael, Robert and you. Maybe not Robert, while he has been "active and helpful", given the set-up of the game, it's nothing scum can't fake, as there's little direct scum-hunting. The others being godfather hinges on them doing something that would be contrarian to their goal of appearing townie, so I guess they could be good choices. Would a godfather say "just kill me"? Probably not. Killing Ralph offers the biggest pay-off in my opinion. I understand that killing Anne gives us a guaranteed trusted townie and a shot at taking out the godfather, but it hurts the town and it might make the difference between winning and losing.

I agree with...Ralph? Wait, what? Is this your strategy, play loonie? How can you not kill him? I disagree about Eric, Scott and Patricia. I would like to echo the sentiment of others, it's best to resolve this situation. Kill Ralph, confirm Anne and me town. then we will have enough TCCs so we don't have to accept someone with unsure allegiance. This is better than taking a shot at killing the godfather, but not gaining any info if we just kill a sleeping townie. Also, please don't kill Anne. She is town, I know that. I vouch for her. In fact, she is the only confirmed townie, killing her would mean, once you find out she is own, there is still the very low chance of me being scum and clearing a townie for whatever reason. If you kill me and see I am town, you will know for sure she is town. If you kill Ralph, you will have two townies alive and a scum dead. This is so, so scummy. First, against all odds, a scum policy is passed. Then you choose to kill someone who will give us no info. I don't like this at all. We don't have any investigations, so this is the only way to get people we can fully trust beyond a flimsy town read, and our town reads will never be good without lynches (or even accusations) to back them up. And we need people we can trust so we don't vote the godfather as TCC by accident. Your guts says it can't be Christina or Michael or Robert, but what if they are? I say kill Ralph, even if he probably isn't the godfather. Then again, he hasn't been acting like he has a scum team to advise him, so maybe he even is.

I agree this is scummy. Not as much as faking an investigation result, but scummy. I agree that Lindsey is the best choice, of course. I vote yes.

Hm, this is actually a good idea why a scum member would prefer to discard a scum card. My point on why they would not is that if they draw two town cards and show them both to the TCC, everyone will know that they didn't have a choice but to pass on at least one town card. But if they dump one town card and say it were two scum, one town, they can say they made the pro-town choice and hence are townies. And it's generally more likely that the third card is scum (they tell teh truth) than town (they lie, which they do). But I admit that messing up the count is a very good motive for dropping a scum card, especially since it makes it a lot more believeable that another (also scum) mayor would draw three scum cards.

Well, even the kill action doesn't confirm the allegiance of the dead. It only tells you if the dead person was the godfather, because the game ends if this is the case. And it gives us some hard info, but not a whole lot of that.

I did, sorry about that. It's because I still think you were the set-up for Ralph so he could investigate me and you could put the allegiance of Anne, our only confirmed townie, into question. But you were (and still are) a more valid choice then any of the others (I'd like to exclude myself and Anne, for obvious reasons, but I guess others don't see it the same).

Is that all you can come up with? Not making up an investigation result or something? Are you even trying to appear town? Hm, this is bad. So it's between Edward, Michael and Christina. Either way, Lindsey should be fine, we'll see who she picks for TCC. I suggest not Ralph, obviously. Also none of those three. And I guess you are going to pick neither Anne nor me, even though I know we are both town. So it's between Eric and Scott?

I will also vote yes. I guess I'm biased here, but I am sad Anne was voted down, but of course not surprised. At least it's Christina, a person I'm leaning town on. Patricia hasn't had a chance to make a choice yet (being given two town cards), so I'd like tos ee what she does this time around. I do. If a scum card comes up, I will be very suspicious.

Thanks, I must have missed that So, at least in the case where three town policies are drawn, we will know that Michael said the truth. That's pretty unlikely though, it requires Ralph to have drawn three scum policies and us to draw another town card. At any rate, there should be at least one town card in that pile (if Michael said the truth and didn't discard a town card), so if the next mayor and TCC are both town, a town card should be passed.

There is the possibility that he received two town cards and discarded one, because with two cards left, the deck should be reshuffled, right? Do I understand that correctly? So there would be no way for us to check whether the cards add up in the end. With that said, I see no reason to distrust Michael on this. A town policy was passed, that's definitely good. Even though Erik chose to pass a town policy, I wouldn't say that clears him. The scum already revealed Ralph (or me and Anne if you believe that), I don't think they would want to catch too much attention. They will still need people to pass scum policies and lobby for the Godfather later on.

I'm not saying it's impossible that that was our plan, if we had been scum. But if it was, that plan would have been foiled by now, and there would be no way to convince you that she is trsutworthy enough that she should be TCC after four scum policies have been passed. At the very least I am saying it would have made for a good scum plan. I think it would have been more obvious that Ralph is trying make you question the investigation result if he had chosen to investigate by himself, especially since he had not contributed much before. You had contributed more, so if you tell him to investigate me, it allows him to just go with it. But is it too much of a threat to put her in a position of power when the scum cannot win just by having the Godfather as TCC? Because if she is the Godfather, outing her by enacting a scum policy would be a bad idea for the scum team. I guess Christina could be rigth and if I had been scum I could have used the chance to "clear" a normal team member, in which case Anne's death would not lose the game for the scum nor prevent us from voting for the Godfather as TCC. That would be the worst case for the town in my opinion. But you said a scum member would always try to clear the Godfather, and I can see how that gives a higher benefit. I don't know. I'm town and so is Anne. With that said, I was prepared to vote down today's government if I wouldn't like the people in it, but I don't have a problem with Michael as mayor. I don't think we can learn much about the TCC, but at least it will tell us something about Michael. I vote yes. Yeah, I miscalculated. But it should be slightly higher, right? I don't think there is more than a third scum among us. But I can see what Christina meant when she said it's not significant enough.

Without any definite town reads, there is a chance like that for everyone being scum. I admit the probability that Anne is town (from your point of view, from mine it's 100%) is not much larger than for a random person. I could have done that, but at this point, that kind of plan would be null and void. I'm not saying you should have her as TCC after the scum managed to pass four policies, no matter what the odds are. That would be stupid. But for now, this is why the TCC matters: You said it yourself, there could be a town mayor and a scum TCC. the town mayor could give the TCC a scum and a town card, and the scum TCC could enact the scum policy and claim the mayor was lying. We have no investigations left, so we could not prove one of them wrong. Best case for us, we will eventually get a kill and kill the scum. Good for us, but not a knockout. Or we believe the TCC and eventually kill the mayor. Bad for us. Now, if we have a town mayor and Anne, there are two cases: 1) I am telling the truth and Anne is investigated town. Exactly what we want, a town TCC. 2) Anne is the Godfather. I am scum. If she passes the scum policy, nobody would believe her and we probably would kill her soon, if not immediately, because the mayor controls the action and knows she was lying. The town wins, we pull out liquor and party hats. Or she plays along, and passes town policies. Again, that's exactly what we want. So, how about a scum mayor? 1) She is town. They give her two scum cards, blame her for the scum policy. Because you are already weary, you believe her, maybe kill her. The game does not end, as she is not the Godfather. We now know both the mayor on that day and Ralph is scum, so even though four scum policies will have been passed until that day, we should have a pretty good idea who not to trust. I'm not sure who comes out ahead in this scenario, and it's the one I'm most afraid of. 2) She is the Godfather. They work together. She gets killed. I don't believe naming someone TCC gives us much of a read on them. When they have no choice, we learn nothing. When they have a choice, scum can always pick the one that is better for them, lay low when they cannot take the heat, and enact a scum policy when they can get away with it. I think we can talk already about who we want to see as TCC. Obviously I don't want Ralph. I am also suspicious of Robert. I do have a slight town read on Christina, because her behavior and reasoning seems more like a townie's than a scum member's. The Lindsey-Patricia government worked, so I'd have no problem giving either of them another term, of course not tomorrow. And it should be noted that Patricia admits she got two town cards, so no choice there, and as I said, no read. Edward said he discarded a scum policy, or he may have been scum discarding a town policy, but the former is more likely. Also, he has been rather active today, so I'd be support him as TCC tomorrow. On other people I don't really have a read on, but I feel people who lay low are more likely to be scum, so I'd prefer a person who I have a town read on (or who I know for sure is town, but you don't) as TCC.

Statistically significant? What exactly are we testing for? And can you elaborate why maths is not meaningful? It's more likely I was given three scum cards than Ralph, that's a fact. Why would you disregard that info? And how about my other argument, which is not based on maths at all? That if Anne is the godfather, having her as TCC is not worse than any other scum, but it would even be stupid for the scum to expose her by enacting a scum policy right right now. If Godfather Anne enacts the third or fourth scum policy, nobody would ever accept her as TCC again and in the best case she would be killed with the next scum policy. Town wins. What exactly didn't work out? Anne got two scum cards, we can all agree on that. How is that bad for the scum? What exactly is your theory? As long as the scum hasn't passed four policies, I think this is the best course of action. If you disagree, please explain why.

I agree, this would be an ideal way for the scum to throw us off the correct odds and create missing cards by discarding a town policy if we assume a scum policy was discarded. But I haven't been assuming he's been telling the truth, I think if he is town, he discarded a scum policy, if he is scum, he discarded a town policy. It's more likely that teh third card is a scum card. Also, it's impossible both of us are town as Ralph claims I am investigated scum. Well, nobody should rule it out. I'm not saying you are scummy, but it's not like you're confirmed town or that you've been strongly against both me and Ralph before this "investigation result". So it's possible that you have are just scum trying to look active, or you are town doing what a townie should do. It's not 50:50. I know I am town, but as Michael demonstrated, it's more than twice as likely I was given three scum cards than that Ralph was given three scum cards. Which means that with a chance of more than two thirds, Anne is town. And making the Godfather a TCC is only a risk once four scum policies have been enacted. At least if I understand this correctly. Can you confirm, Bob, that this is how it works? Has the scum to enact four scum policies and then install the godfather as TCC, or has the Godfather to approve the fourth scum policy? Because you should know that it's more than two thirds that she is town, which is better odds than we have on a random person. In fact, if she was the Godfather and this was all a conspiracy by me and my scum buddies, do you think we would blow it by prematurely passing a scum policy with Anne as TCC? She should be the one person you trust to enact a town policy even if she is scum. I think you planned it like that. Ralph discarded a town policy, but to distract from himself, he investigated a townie as scum. The best thing you can do is try to cast doubt on a confirmed townie, and you can do that only by investigating me as scum. However, if Ralph decided all on his own to just investigate me, it is extremely suspicious, so thankfully you just happened to suggest that he should be investigated. And now you advocate against having Anne as TCC, even though she is more likely to be town and should not pass a scum policy eevn if she is the godfather. I don't really think this is a good idea per se. Staying out of the spotlight is not a qualification we are looking for in a TCC. We want townies, and we don't want the Godfather after four scum policies have been passed.

I will also vote yes. I have had no reason to distrust Patricia more than anyone else so far.

Well, you are lying. With the stack being what it is, it was already very unlikely that you should be dealt three scum cards, and this proves to me you probably discarded a town card. I think it makes sense. Since I got my investigation result, we could have installed you as TCC every other day, thus drstically reducing the chance for the scum to pass a scum policy. It's only logical for them to try and cast doubt on it. I'm starting to wonder whether I was right about Robert when I chose him as TCC. He asked Ralph to investigate me in public. It would have been really scummy if Ralph had just investigated me on his own responsibilty, but Robert asked him to, allowing him to get a scum result on me and casting doubt on the only cleared townie. It is really convenient. We will get the ability to kill people once we pass four or five scum policies. Bob, will we learn the allegiance of the killed?

Can't we discuss the investigation before it happens? I didn't, but I think Robert pointed out that I could have. We can't trust him, but it gives us some information anyway.

Quite a bold statement, Mr Hat. I vote yes. Can't say I disagree, but I know Anne is town so I'm more than happy to vote for her. Of course, at this point a scum mayor who wouldn't propose Anne might as well wear a sign that says "Hi, I'm scum".

Well, we can't let that happen. While Ralph's contributions have been somewhat lacking, at least he has been active enough that he should be able to nominate Anne in time. Good question. I'd like to throw my hat in the ring again, but seeing as I was the mayor who was forced to enact a scum policy, maybe it would not be smart to vote for me. From your point of view, the same should go for Robert Butler, as there is the chance that we worked together to pass a scum policy, even if that's not the case. If things go well, Ralph and Anne should be ineligible, and after her failure to appear today in time, I would suggest we don't give Lindsey a second term.

Yeah. If Anne is town (which she is, as I know) she will pass a town policy anyway. If she is scum, there's no point in giving her more options. No point in testing. This day should go very well for us.

Does it explicitely say that? I can't find it, neither that we can discuss nor that I have to share my result. I guess it doesn't say that we can't discuss, so maybe I jumped the gun here. Well, since I just read the rules again: