Excalibur TNG: Mafia School Day Three

[jluck]

Jeff I had suspicions you may have been playing me after I posted mine, but since I have nothing to hide I have nothing to lose.

I do hope to get back on track in the scum hunt as I feel this list discussion was a bit distracting. In regards to your above post (I won't quote due to length) I find it very interesting. I will go back and reread some stuff. the only thing I think you might wanna consider is if there are any townies with night action. It would change the thinking against Jordan but it would explain isaacs death, an possibly Emma's too.

[getdamonkey]

Jeff I had suspicions you may have been playing me after I posted mine, but since I have nothing to hide I have nothing to lose.

I do hope to get back on track in the scum hunt as I feel this list discussion was a bit distracting. In regards to your above post (I won't quote due to length) I find it very interesting. I will go back and reread some stuff. the only thing I think you might wanna consider is if there are any townies with night action. It would change the thinking against Jordan but it would explain isaacs death, an possibly Emma's too.

I did take that into account and I don't feel like it changes anything. I think Emma was the logical vig kill last night since that was a good hedge against being wrong on Greg and possibly a way to knock out two scum in one night (I don't think there was anyone who suspected that both were innocent).

Day one is a little bit cloudier since there are valid reasons to vig kill both Emily and Isaac. But regardless, I think that there is a vig (was if they were killed last night). We'll see how many night actions happen tonight.

[-Horizon-]

I did take that into account and I don't feel like it changes anything. I think Emma was the logical vig kill last night since that was a good hedge against being wrong on Greg and possibly a way to knock out two scum in one night (I don't think there was anyone who suspected that both were innocent).

Day one is a little bit cloudier since there are valid reasons to vig kill both Emily and Isaac. But regardless, I think that there is a vig (was if they were killed last night). We'll see how many night actions happen tonight.

Well, We lost Three last night, and the night before. So probably we will lose three more people tonight.

[jluck]

Well, We lost Three last night, and the night before. So probably we will lose three more people tonight.

Well it's a guarantee that we will lose 1 to a lynch, plus the scum will take 1, but the 3rd kill isn't as much a guarentee. With 5 townies dead, there's a chance we've lost any townie with killing power. Plus, it could be that since one scum is dead, they've lost some killing power. The number lost tonight will let us know what characters are left.

[-Horizon-]

Well it's a guarantee that we will lose 1 to a lynch, plus the scum will take 1, but the 3rd kill isn't as much a guarentee. With 5 townies dead, there's a chance we've lost any townie with killing power. Plus, it could be that since one scum is dead, they've lost some killing power. The number lost tonight will let us know what characters are left.

Oh, I forgot about that.

[Calanon]

Well it's a guarantee that we will lose 1 to a lynch, plus the scum will take 1, but the 3rd kill isn't as much a guarentee. With 5 townies dead, there's a chance we've lost any townie with killing power. Plus, it could be that since one scum is dead, they've lost some killing power. The number lost tonight will let us know what characters are left.

Surely Bob would have said if somebody with a vig/detective role was killed and not just call them a Loyalist?

[getdamonkey]

Surely Bob would have said if somebody with a vig/detective role was killed and not just call them a Loyalist?

Unless he discloses this or does it when it happens, no one knows for sure.

On a side note, we have 26 hours left to vote.

[Tohst]

I've watched a couple other mafia games and don't remember any time where they disclose the roles after a lynch or kill

[jluck]

Ok I've had a couple of suspicions for most of day 3, so I think it's time to go public with them.

First off, I'm working under a few assumptions:

1) we had 3 scum to start, so 2 now

2) their is/was a town killer

Here's some stuff from day 2:

Willie states why he voted Greg, now a known scum

Vote: Greg Kennedy (Lego Spy)

Okay, let's get this done early. For misleading quotes and suspicious timing of bandwagon votes.

In an experiment, you have to go where the data leads you. Sometimes the data is incorrect like when you don't clean out a test tube well enough and then use it again.

As a side note, I have been typing in an accent.

Warren defends Greg

Suspicious bandwagon votes! That is why your voting for him? That's Crazy! Just because Isaac voted right after him does not mean that Greg is a Purist, and if he says they didn't PM they didn't PM. And what misleading quotes? No one ever said anything about Greg using misleading quotes. Name one misleading quote that Greg did, and I'll be fine.

Jordan chimes in, being a bit more...political with his defense of Greg, and also asks if anyone has seen suspicious action from Greg.

Jeff, I get where you are coming from, but I am still not buying it.

If it was the other way around, where Greg posted second, two minutes later, I would say ok he was hoping on/hopeing to start a bandwagon.

and/or If we didn't know the alignment of either of them, I would say ok makes perfect sense that they would be scums coordinating.

However, Isaac, is now known to be GOOD.

Thus in my mind it nullifies the argument that they are working together since it is impossible for Isaac to know the Greg's alignment 100% (he could have been really niave and trusted a PM).

It just seems improbable that they would be talking that much, this early in the game, to coordinate votes like that if they both weren't known to be on the same team.

To me it appears that Greg voted, and either Isaac was already posting his decisons and/or Isaac decided to follow along because there was little else to go off of.

Greg could very well be scum, but I just don't buy your logic behind your arguement and I think we are narrowing in too much on it.

Does anyone else see anything suspicious (in particular that Greg did, but really for anyone)?

Warren says no

I haven't noticed anything suspicious lately.

Jordan pushes the Emma suspicion, Emma we now know is town

This is what I am thinking...

I am leaning Emma at this time.

1.) She falls under the catagory of the people grouping together

2.) She has been active enough, deflected blame to others, yet has remained quiet enough to slip by (even the quote linked in Adam's post above seems like she is covering all her bases)

3.) She falls in the list of those Dragonfire called out, and thus potential revenge killing.

So, since I am not sure if I will be able to make it on again before the deadline due to studying (RL: work/sleep)

VOTE: EMMA (vampyre78)

I will try to make it back on though to continue discussion

Warren is careful with his answer, but helps further the theory (possibly to avoid the appearance of bandwagoning)

Those are some good solid facts, and all of them are true. I'll have to think about Emma

More random posts of warren defending Greg

Has Greg actually done anything? and if he did what?

Greg wasn't the only person to bandwagon against Adam. Six other players voted against Adam at one point. He was the fourth person to vote for Adam. You saying cause he joined a bandwagon he's scum, That isn't true. Emily voted for Adam first and she was Loyalist, Isaac was the fifth person to vote for Adam, and the third person for Melinda he was a loyalist. I just don't see how you can claim Greg scum multiple people did the exact same thing and you aren't claiming they're scum.[/size]

He never said randomly, He said "I'm running out of time, so I'm just going to make a vote."

He could be basing his vote off all the facts you discussed, but didn't have time to type every stinking fact up.

Just wondering, why are you voting for Greg? He didn't start the first bandwagon, and the second bandwagon he was the second person to vote for Melinda. (Willie being the first.) So why are you voting against him? He just saw facts and thought they were good, solid facts, and when better facts came along he decided to change his vote. That doesn't sound very scummy to me.

So at this point I just wish I could vote for two people. Unless things change majorly (meaning strong, factual evidence) I will be voting for either Jordan or Warren, likely which ever one is easier for us to eliminate.

I hope my strong, clear, and early honesty will create a honest conversation. My assumption is the current ratio of town to scum is 2:1 thus we are at a strong advantage. The facts feel clear to me so I want to close this out. Jordan and Warren I am wide open to your defenses and will consider any clear facts you can present.

[Tohst]

I've seen two convincing cases against Jordan from Jeff and Adam.

Vote: Jordan Foster (Comrade Commander)

[-Horizon-]

Jordan and Warren I am wide open to your defenses and will consider any clear facts you can present.

Well, the only reason I defended Greg was because all of your reasons to vote for him didn't make sense to me.

[Bob]

Vote Count:

Jordan Foster / Comrade Commander: 2 (getdamonkey, Tohst)

Remember, there's a little less than twenty-four hours left in this day.

Edited May 26, 2014 by Bob

[getdamonkey]

Vote Count:

Jordan Foster / Comrade Commander: 1 (Tohst)

Remember, there's a little less than twenty-four hours left in this day.

I should be on there as well. My two posts merged into one giant wall o' text and buried my vote in the middle.

[Bob]

I should be on there as well. My two posts merged into one giant wall o' text and buried my vote in the middle.

Sorry about that. Fixed!

[Comrade Commander]

I had a feeling I would be the target today given how the voting count ended yesterday. Being the only person to vote with a known scum does make me look pretty bad.

But here is my point of view.

First off, I have not had any communications with Fred outside of this room. No one has PM'd me, and to be honest I wouldn't believe them to be innocent and on my side until they were 100% confirmed town. It is just my nature. It is so easy to hide behind words, and for the scum especially, it benefits them to be communicating in private where not everyone can pick apart their posts. This is why from the first day we have all been telling people to voice their opinions, and state what evidence they have, in the public so that we can all work on this problem together.

Now, that brings me to why I voted for the people I did. During the respective days I tried to make it clear why I voted for people, and my posts seem to have since been reposted here so you can see them transparently. But to rehash, I offer the following.

On day one it was a crap shoot. We all admitted it. We knew nothing, but were bound by the rules of the game to vote. So I voted to make a point. It was a procedural vote to highlight a tactic that could be used by scum to munipulate words and paint people as evil. I wanted to put an end to it (thank you everyone who took my advice and has since annotated changes more clearly). I made my vote and stuck to it. There was no point in changing it at the end of the day since the evidence on other people was just as thin. My vote on Adam turned into a bandwagon probably because people didn't want to be the the first to vote, and didn't have any other evidence to make other claims. When I called the bandwagon out, I highlighted that people were just jumping on so that other people didn't think there was some magic evidence and that the debate was still open for discussion. At the end of the day though. I kept my vote on Adam because either vote was a shot in the dark and at least I would make a message to the scum by fighting against misleading quotes. To be honest, it is pretty clear Adam is town now, but not knowing who the scum was, I still think I made the better choice of the two candidates presented.

On day two I made a vote for Emma. This is the vote that will probably kill me today. 20/20 hind-sight is always a pain, but I still can't figure the logic behind it all. I might have blinders on, and haven't been able to cehck the game as much, so the walls of text I get can blur together, but the bottom line is that I saw the main argument against Greg being that he posted too close to Isaac. Yet, as I am pretty sure I mentioned during my arguement during the 2nd day, he posted first. The logical thing would be for the scum to post second in an attempt to bandwagon & point blame. So from my perspective Isaac should have been the scum, yet he had been confirmed as good. This confused things further for me. It is also hard for me to wrap my head around people coordinating that early in the game when there is so little known and so much at risk. Why would someone expose themselves that much, without any back up? Since I didn't agree with the evidence, and I saw Emma as acting fishy, I stated my case and voted for her. I felt I had more solid evidence, and a lot of people agreed with what I had to say. That is why many of you were on the fence for a while (she even made Jeff's scum list as a probable scum). I made my case from the evidence I had presented in this room. Unfortunately just turns out I was on the wrong side of the fence at the end of the day.

As for today, well it is fine if you believe I am scum. I obviously would hope otherwise, and would be happy to expand further on anything and/or answer questions (sorry if I missed any in the mass amounts of posts since I last logged on).

My views on scum are really not as flushed out at this time, but right now I am thinking...

- Warren: had an a random jump in votes yesterday. He went from siding with Greg (and me) to voting for a completely random player. Perhaps he did not want to be seen voting with a scum player, but did not want to cast a vote against his friend either?

- Calanon: he has been quiet. Not a good enough reason to lynch him as I have made clear multiple times, but he has bounced in and out at convenient times. Has he made any arguements? I have seen him post a few times, and he weakly defended himself at the start of this day, but he just doesn't seem to be on the radar. I haven't had a chance to look back through everything yet, but I think it is worth a second look as well (if just to cover all our bases)

I would also just like clarification as to whether Jeff actually has had PM converations with people, or just claimed to in order to get Adam to post? That part is confusing to me

[getdamonkey]

[snip]

On day one it was a crap shoot. We all admitted it. We knew nothing, but were bound by the rules of the game to vote. So I voted to make a point. It was a procedural vote to highlight a tactic that could be used by scum to munipulate words and paint people as evil. I wanted to put an end to it (thank you everyone who took my advice and has since annotated changes more clearly). I made my vote and stuck to it. There was no point in changing it at the end of the day since the evidence on other people was just as thin. My vote on Adam turned into a bandwagon probably because people didn't want to be the the first to vote, and didn't have any other evidence to make other claims. When I called the bandwagon out, I highlighted that people were just jumping on so that other people didn't think there was some magic evidence and that the debate was still open for discussion. At the end of the day though. I kept my vote on Adam because either vote was a shot in the dark and at least I would make a message to the scum by fighting against misleading quotes. To be honest, it is pretty clear Adam is town now, but not knowing who the scum was, I still think I made the better choice of the two candidates presented.

So you're essentially saying that you're willing to throw town under the bus to prove a point. That's kind of disappointing.

On a side note, I was wrong, Jordan was the second vote for Adam not the first. Emily cast the first vote roughly 30 hours earlier. All votes through the Adam and Isaac duet listed here:

[snip]

Vote: Adam (jluckhaupt)

[snip]

Vote: Adam Powers (jluckhaupt)

[snip]

[snip]

Vote: Adam Powers (jluckhaupt)

[snip]

[snip]

Vote: Adam Powers (jluckhaupt)

[snip]

[snip]

Vote: Adam Powers (jluckhaupt)

[snip]

So to be clear, the first vote was cast --> ~30 hours passed --> Jordan votes --> three additional votes follow within 30 minutes (two of which were made by scum and town which appeared to be puppeted)

On day two I made a vote for Emma. This is the vote that will probably kill me today. 20/20 hind-sight is always a pain, but I still can't figure the logic behind it all. I might have blinders on, and haven't been able to cehck the game as much, so the walls of text I get can blur together, but the bottom line is that I saw the main argument against Greg being that he posted too close to Isaac. Yet, as I am pretty sure I mentioned during my arguement during the 2nd day, he posted first. The logical thing would be for the scum to post second in an attempt to bandwagon & point blame. So from my perspective Isaac should have been the scum, yet he had been confirmed as good. This confused things further for me. It is also hard for me to wrap my head around people coordinating that early in the game when there is so little known and so much at risk. Why would someone expose themselves that much, without any back up? Since I didn't agree with the evidence, and I saw Emma as acting fishy, I stated my case and voted for her. I felt I had more solid evidence, and a lot of people agreed with what I had to say. That is why many of you were on the fence for a while (she even made Jeff's scum list as a probable scum). I made my case from the evidence I had presented in this room. Unfortunately just turns out I was on the wrong side of the fence at the end of the day.

[snip]

It wasn't just that he posted close to Isaac, it was that he posted consistently close to Isaac in a consistent order. And as I reread day 1, Isaac is even parroting Greg in places.

[snip]

I would also just like clarification as to whether Jeff actually has had PM converations with people, or just claimed to in order to get Adam to post? That part is confusing to me

I'll state this a third time. My list is the list from yesterday that was publicly posted to the day two thread. outside of this, there was a brief (1 message each) exchange with Adam regarding the list.

[Comrade Commander]

Jeff, I did not say I was willing to throw a town member under the bus to prove a point. I said I stuck with one unknown over another to prove a point. We had no evidence either way. It was not till further conversations on the following days did I come to believe Adam was actually working for the town.

In the interest of full disclosure I have now been contacted by Adam to discuss today's votes. Pretty much made it obvious to me I am not going to see tomorrow.

Today though I am going to VOTE: WARREN (Lego3364)

I have presented some evidence along with the rest of you, but the biggest part was the vote yesterday. He was lined up to vote with Greg, just like me, and then abandoned ship at the last minute. This could be evidence of him not trying to get nailed down by the voting pattern. Add that to his defense of Greg and the inconsistent manner in which he has made conversations in some of his posts, that makes him a candidate for scum

[jluck]

[snip]

In the interest of full disclosure I have now been contacted by Adam to discuss today's votes. Pretty much made it obvious to me I am not going to see tomorrow.

[snip]

Jordan, I don't want to insinuate you won't make it through the night, because I don't have the power to cause night action. What I've been trying to make completely clear is that I want either you or Warren voted off, I feel the evidence is very strong in those two areas.

I do hope that if either of you are town, you'll make it through and use the following day to convince whatever town is left (because if either of you are town, it's highly doubtful I make it through the night).

[Bob]

Vote Count:

Jordan Foster / Comrade Commander: 2 (getdamonkey, Tohst)

Warren Thompson / Lego3364: 1 (Comrade Commander)

As a reminder, all players must vote. Remember, there's about five or so hours left in this day.

[jluck]

So is everyone content with the way things are shaping up? Only 4 more hours and we haven't heard much from folks.

[Tohst]

Content, no? We only have 3 votes recorded and there are 2 scum (probably) out there. I wonder if they are waiting until the very end to try something?

[jluck]

Ok, with time winding down I will follow up on my initial thinking, to vote for whoever is easier to get rid of between Jordan and Warren. Jordan I said in our PM that I'd try to go for warren first if i wa certain we could get him, but currently the scales are against you so here it goes...

Vote: Jordan Foster (Comrade Commander)

I feel certain that the facts are leading in this direction.

[Calanon]

So is everyone content with the way things are shaping up? Only 4 more hours and we haven't heard much from folks.

I'm really not sure what else I can add now, everybody else seems to have gathered plenty of evidence.

Vote: Jordan Foster (Comrade Commander)

[getdamonkey]

It's going to be an interesting (and by interesting, I mean not interesting) if someone has a 4 vote penalty tomorrow.

Ordered list of suspected scum, and yes, it includes everyone, is as follows (for what it's worth):

Jordan

Warren

Willie

Tim

Adam

[jluck]

It's going to be an interesting (and by interesting, I mean not interesting) if someone has a 4 vote penalty tomorrow.

Ordered list of suspected scum, and yes, it includes everyone, is as follows (for what it's worth):

Jordan

Warren

Willie

Tim

Adam

Do we still not have Warrens vote?