How well are LEGO Lord of the Rings / Hobbit selling? Speculate here

[Blakstone]

I found the 2012 LEGO Shareholders Report, finally, but Lord of the Rings and Hobbit were not mentioned. In fact there are only two paragraphs covering any line.

"LEGO Star Wars™ and LEGO City continue to be the best selling product lines, with LEGO Ninjago, launched in 2011, following closely. The new product line LEGO Friends that was launched at the beginning of 2012 has performed considerably above expectations."

"LEGO® sales

It has been a challenge to attract more girls to the LEGO play experience. In an attempt to solve this challenge, the new product line LEGO Friends was launched at the beginning of 2012. During its first year on the market, the product line has proved a huge success, and in spite of a considerable increase of production capacity on this particular line during the year, the very strong demand could not fully be met. LEGO Ninjago which was launched in 2011 continued its popularity in 2012 as the third largest product line in the portfolio, while LEGO City and LEGO Star Wars™ topped the list of best selling lines again in 2012."

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&ved=0CE0QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fcache.lego.com%2Fr%2Faboutus%2F-%2Fmedia%2FAbout%2520Us%2FMedia%2520Assets%2520Library%2FAnnual%2520Reports%2FAnnual_Report_2012.pdf&ei=7_kmUdu-Aeie2AXWl4CgDA&usg=AFQjCNH4NvqVf-1fD_Ykf1BGOlgdnnx5Fw&bvm=bv.42768644,d.b2I

[just2good]

I found the 2012 LEGO Shareholders Report, finally, but Lord of the Rings and Hobbit were not mentioned. In fact there are only two paragraphs covering any line.

"LEGO Star Wars™ and LEGO City continue to be the best selling product lines, with LEGO Ninjago, launched in 2011, following closely. The new product line LEGO Friends that was launched at the beginning of 2012 has performed considerably above expectations."

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&ved=0CE0QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fcache.lego.com%2Fr%2Faboutus%2F-%2Fmedia%2FAbout%2520Us%2FMedia%2520Assets%2520Library%2FAnnual%2520Reports%2FAnnual_Report_2012.pdf&ei=7_kmUdu-Aeie2AXWl4CgDA&usg=AFQjCNH4NvqVf-1fD_Ykf1BGOlgdnnx5Fw&bvm=bv.42768644,d.b2I

Keep in mind, those themes had a January AND Summer wave, and at least 20 sets in the year all together.

LOTR had a Summer wave with seven, and The Hobbit had a November wave with six, and even that is too early to calculate.

[Tyrant]

Keep in mind, those themes had a January AND Summer wave, and at least 20 sets in the year all together.

LOTR had a Summer wave with seven, and The Hobbit had a November wave with six, and even that is too early to calculate.

True, but do we know if they mean Star Wars and City sets outsold the other themes on a set by set basis, or the total lines? If it's set by set, total numbers of sets in the series matters less.

[Blakstone]

What I take away from this is the LEGO does not get into a discussion of production lines in the stockholder reports. For 2012, they only mentioned Star Wars, City, Friends, and Ninijago. For 2011, they mentioned those sets plus Pirates of the Caribbean.

We lack the ability to truly know what the Hobbit and LotR sets are doing. We can only speculate. The only incite I could draw is that LEGO is willing to retire lines such as Pirates of the Caribbean and Ninijago even when they are exceeding expectations.

I believe that TLG has designed all of the LotR sets they will do. The only thing that would prevent them from releasing those sets is if LotR under performed.

[Tyrant]

I've noticed a couple of mentions of Ninjago being retired. I was pretty sure it will have sets in 2014, and it has 2013 sets, so what retirement?

[Faefrost]

What I take away from this is the LEGO does not get into a discussion of production lines in the stockholder reports. For 2012, they only mentioned Star Wars, City, Friends, and Ninijago. For 2011, they mentioned those sets plus Pirates of the Caribbean.

We lack the ability to truly know what the Hobbit and LotR sets are doing. We can only speculate. The only incite I could draw is that LEGO is willing to retire lines such as Pirates of the Caribbean and Ninijago even when they are exceeding expectations.

I believe that TLG has designed all of the LotR sets they will do. The only thing that would prevent them from releasing those sets is if LotR under performed.

Pirates probably falls into that same category as Harry Potter. It makes a good profit in the years a movie is released. I don't think Lego has released or retired the license yet (note no new in house Pirate sets). Rather it is waiting for the next movie. And Lego backed off on retiring Ninjago because it was so outperforming expectations.

[Deathleech]

True, but do we know if they mean Star Wars and City sets outsold the other themes on a set by set basis, or the total lines? If it's set by set, total numbers of sets in the series matters less.

I would guess total lines, not set by set. Doing it set by set seems a bit unrealistic.

I've noticed a couple of mentions of Ninjago being retired. I was pretty sure it will have sets in 2014, and it has 2013 sets, so what retirement?

It was suppose to retire in 2013 after a wave early this year and Chima was suppose to be it's replacement. Whether that is still the case or not I am not sure.. though I would assume it is considering Ninjago was not shown off at Toy Fair or any other major events this year and there are no future sets planned as of right now.

[Tyrant]

I would guess total lines, not set by set. Doing it set by set seems a bit unrealistic.

I mean the average set sales of one line vs the average set sales of a different line when I say set by set. Probably not the best wording, but what I mean is that they look at SW and see that SW sets sell x number of units on average and likewise whatever-other-theme-you-want sells y number of sets on average. My point being that there is a measurement that I consider it fairly likely to be the one used when comparing lines where the number of sets available becomes less of a factor. Otherwise, sure, the larger series should have higher sales.

It was suppose to retire in 2013 after a wave early this year and Chima was suppose to be it's replacement. Whether that is still the case or not I am not sure.. though I would assume it is considering Ninjago was not shown off at Toy Fair or any other major events this year and there are no future sets planned as of right now.

I take it either you haven't seen the Ninjago Will Return poster or that has been found to be a fake and I am as of yet unaware of said find.

[TheLegoDr]

As far as I know, Ninjago will return in 2014 because it was performing better than expected. I don't know any further truth to that.

Back on topic here, I think they mention the main lines that were selling the best because they were "the best." They don't go into details on every single subtheme they have, simply because of time I would imagine. Plus, if there are under-performing themes they don't necessarily want to tell everyone that. What we perceive as a flop may actually sell better for TLG than we think, but they cut the theme loose because no current movie tie-ins or they only planned for it to be a one wave theme.

I would imagine LOTR is selling better than expected, mostly because of the Hobbit push. But since that was released mid-year with Hobbit at the end of the year, they don't really have full numbers compared to Star Wars and City having many waves to pull data. You can refute that with Friends, however that was an all new market and they had multiple waves for that already too.

[Deathleech]

I mean the average set sales of one line vs the average set sales of a different line when I say set by set. Probably not the best wording, but what I mean is that they look at SW and see that SW sets sell x number of units on average and likewise whatever-other-theme-you-want sells y number of sets on average. My point being that there is a measurement that I consider it fairly likely to be the one used when comparing lines where the number of sets available becomes less of a factor. Otherwise, sure, the larger series should have higher sales.

I am still a little skeptical. I mean if they did that, couldn't Star Wars actually be perceived as doing worse in some cases due to the larger amount of sets released each year? For instance LotR only had one set that was remotely an army builder, the Uruk-hai Army. I bought that set a ton. Star Wars on the other hand has several battle packs out this year so maybe the Star Wars fans split their purchases between them, or buy one more than the other (I know they arn't the same price point, I am just using it as an example). Also the sheer amount of sets released for the Star Wars each year makes it harder to buy every last one for younger children I imagine.

I take it either you haven't seen the Ninjago Will Return poster or that has been found to be a fake and I am as of yet unaware of said find.

Nope, I don't really follow Ninjago, is this post confirmed? It just seems weird to me Lego would announce they are ending the Ninjago line and replacing it with Chima, then bringing Ninjago back not even a year later later and before they have even seen the sales of Chima.