1980-Something-Space-Guy

Price increases in the secondary market

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I've had a couple of surprises while seeing prices of minifigs and sets vary years after they have been released.

Take, for instance, getting a new Cloud City Boba Fett minifig. I purchased this fig when it was already expensive, at $75, in 2010. Back then, it was possible to get the fig at about $70-$100. Out of curiosity, I've seen the new prices for the fig, and it looks like even though the fig was released in 2003, the prices continue to increase in a short amount of time. Today, two years after I purchased the fig, it looks like the price for the fig has tripled in three years! (Take a look at eBay and Bricklink). So, we're speaking of a huge increase in 2 years, even though the fig isn't much older now than it was back then in 2010.

I'm perplexed at this increase and I can't tell why it is. I mean, it's a rare fig, but conditions back in 2010 can't be that different from those now.

I've seen this kind of unexpected price increases with other figs and sets, and since I'm a collector and I can't always buy figs or sets when they are released, I'm interested in knowing if there is any way to predict these fluctuations. Could anyone have predicted that mysterious 200% price increase of the Boba Fett fig, for instance?

Edited by johnnyvgoode

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Are you talking about selling price or sold price?

The only people who are great at predicting these kinds of things are the people who do it for a living, but with all the re-duex of old SW sets happening this year, I'd expect these prices to drop.

Old batman figures that have been redesigned in Superheroes have already dropped. Old figures that have not been redesigned are holding fairly steady.

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I've had a couple of surprises while seeing prices of minifigs and sets vary years after they have been released.

Take, for instance, getting a new Cloud City Boba Fett minifig. I purchased this fig when it was already expensive, at $75, in 2010. Back then, it was possible to get the fig at about $70-$100. Out of curiosity, I've seen the new prices for the fig, and it looks like even though the fig was released in 2003, the prices continue to increase in a short amount of time. Today, two years after I purchased the fig, it looks like the price for the fig has tripled in three years! (Take a look at eBay and Bricklink). So, we're speaking of a huge increase in 2 years, even though the fig isn't much older now than it was back then in 2010.

I'm perplexed at this increase and I can't tell why it is. I mean, it's a rare fig, but conditions back in 2010 can't be that different from those now.

I've seen this kind of unexpected price increases with other figs and sets, and since I'm a collector and I can't always buy figs or sets when they are released, I'm interested in knowing if there is any way to predict these fluctuations. Could anyone have predicted that mysterious 200% price increase of the Boba Fett fig, for instance?

I personally think that it is partly to do with the limited figures that have been selling for a few hundred dollars. After that, people are not that appalled to pay 300 for the elusive cloud city boba fett.

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Are you talking about selling price or sold price?

I mean mainly the selling price, although the sold price has risen too.

In the case of the Cloud Fett, what makes it more weird is the fact that we did get a re-release of the Fett fig a few years ago, and that didn't seem to make the prices drop. However, that could be because of its unusual arm printings.

Edited by johnnyvgoode

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I believe that the arm prints are a huge part of the drive to own this particular minifig. Starting to wish I didn't sell mine.

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My pediction is the hulk promo will be the highest price of all minifig promos by this time next year.

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My pediction is the hulk promo will be the highest price of all minifig promos by this time next year.

I think they created too many of them to make it valuable.

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I know some people like the hulk, but the messed up leg printing is something I can't get over. I have less than zero interest in ever owning that minifigure and never once considered taking part in that promo. I don't see any reason for the hulk to carry more value than TC-14 in the long term unless it turns out a lot of people feel the same way about it as me and it becomes rare.

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My pediction is the hulk promo will be the highest price of all minifig promos by this time next year.

I'm sure TC-14 and shirtless Maul will be more than hulk. The leg print really turned people off to it. Plus, TC was a two day deal, Hulk was two weeks.

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You never know what will catch on. I heard of someone on Bricklink selling 31 dark blue arches for 17 cents each a little over a year ago, each of those now sell for $17 each due to the popularity of people building their own Cafe Corners and Market Street, which no one really did before a few people started posting about it on these forums.

The same with minifigures, I think Lego Star Wars minifigures were much less interesting before the variety of Clone Wars figures made it more interesting to collect, which has resulted in Lego producing many more interesting figs in the past few years. With more collectors the few previous figures with great design such as CC Boba Fett and Greedo exploded in popularity.

A few months ago a few of the sellers on Bricklink started posting about the unicolored minifigures they made with their parts collection, resulting in lots of people doing the same and so minifigure parts in rare colors and the figures they are part of exploded in price. Which is why the poorly designed original Watto fig with medium blue hands exploded in price even if a far superior figure was released last summer.

I guess my point is that it is pretty hard to predict which sets, figures or parts are going to explode in price as it really depends on the crowd mentality of what peope want to collect and build. I guess someone could manipulate the market by generating their own trends, but one would never know if it catches on.

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You never know what will catch on. I heard of someone on Bricklink selling 31 dark blue arches for 17 cents each a little over a year ago, each of those now sell for $17 each due to the popularity of people building their own Cafe Corners and Market Street, which no one really did before a few people started posting about it on these forums.

The same with minifigures, I think Lego Star Wars minifigures were much less interesting before the variety of Clone Wars figures made it more interesting to collect, which has resulted in Lego producing many more interesting figs in the past few years. With more collectors the few previous figures with great design such as CC Boba Fett and Greedo exploded in popularity.

A few months ago a few of the sellers on Bricklink started posting about the unicolored minifigures they made with their parts collection, resulting in lots of people doing the same and so minifigure parts in rare colors and the figures they are part of exploded in price. Which is why the poorly designed original Watto fig with medium blue hands exploded in price even if a far superior figure was released last summer.

I guess my point is that it is pretty hard to predict which sets, figures or parts are going to explode in price as it really depends on the crowd mentality of what peope want to collect and build. I guess someone could manipulate the market by generating their own trends, but one would never know if it catches on.

That is very enlightening. I had wondered about the Watto figure too.

Some people do seem to have some sixth sense for this kind of things, though. Jeez, I mean, if somebody though about keeping a few Cloud Fetts to sell today, he or she could make quite good money out of them. And this is not to mention the Maersk madness and the red Vader helmets.

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...now I'm curious... does serious collectors buy the Cloud City set just for the Boba Fett figure or for the whole set?... and what is the average selling price of an open set compared to a sealed/mint-in-box set nowadays?...

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...now I'm curious... does serious collectors buy the Cloud City set just for the Boba Fett figure or for the whole set?... and what is the average selling price of an open set compared to a sealed/mint-in-box set nowadays?...

i would have gotten it even if it had been released without the special Boba Fett. For Star Wars, it is normally the set and whatever comes with it that counts instead of just the minifigures (that's for me.)

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...now I'm curious... does serious collectors buy the Cloud City set just for the Boba Fett figure or for the whole set?... and what is the average selling price of an open set compared to a sealed/mint-in-box set nowadays?...

It has other figures that are very desirable for some collectors. And comparing MISB vs. open sets' prices depends on the set. It makes a lot of difference in classic sets, but not as much in other ones. I have seen some used sets sell for prices similar to new ones, just because they were sold on different sites (e.g. Bricklink vs. eBay).

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If I recall correctly, Cloud City's Boba Fett was the first minifig with arm printing. That could be an additional factor in the collectibility of it.

As for the broader question of whether these price increases can be predicted, no. Lots of people like to think of "the market" as some kind of objectively rational force of nature, but really, it's just people spending money. And let's be honest, there is no force in the universe less rational than people spending money.

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There's lots of reasons why theres a price increase. The first is availability, If a set is exculsive or is always sold out then it's most likely going to increase in price. Secondly minifigures are a huge factor, figs like Lando that are very rare increase by a huge amount. Thirdly the original price sometimes affects the after market price for example smaller sets tend not to increase by as much money as larger sets. Lastly it's the theme of the set. Licenced sets always have an advantage of original themes. There's more interest in old Licenced sets than there is in old city sets.

If your looking to invest in some sets to sell later I would look at the superheroes line, modular buildings, Lego direct sets, star wars UCS and lord of the rings. I think that the funhouse set will increase by a lot when it ends it's run. It has a lot of the above factors like exclusive, Licenced, rare figures and a medium price range make it a great investment.

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There's lots of reasons why theres a price increase. The first is availability, If a set is exculsive or is always sold out then it's most likely going to increase in price. Secondly minifigures are a huge factor, figs like Lando that are very rare increase by a huge amount. Thirdly the original price sometimes affects the after market price for example smaller sets tend not to increase by as much money as larger sets. Lastly it's the theme of the set. Licenced sets always have an advantage of original themes. There's more interest in old Licenced sets than there is in old city sets.

If your looking to invest in some sets to sell later I would look at the superheroes line, modular buildings, Lego direct sets, star wars UCS and lord of the rings. I think that the funhouse set will increase by a lot when it ends it's run. It has a lot of the above factors like exclusive, Licenced, rare figures and a medium price range make it a great investment.

I think that you can get a good idea of the availability of certain sets (for instance, "Hard to find", or small sets that are very common), but it's harder with bigger sets. Even Lego has a hard time predicting whether or not a certain amount of sets is going to satisfy demand, as in the series 1 and 2 CMFs.

I'm not actually looking to invest. I just want to be able to buy certain figs and sets, but since I just can't buy them all at once, I would like to have ways to know which ones are less likely to shoot up in price.

But I agree with the statement above. The market is not rational, and therefore it is hard to predict. :sceptic:

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