Baritones 3: Day One

[Bob]

When is this coroner going to get here? Does the town even have a coroner? Obviously someone was here to take away Agent Sky's body. I know that nobody really cares about the mime, but now he's starting to smell terrible.

Back on topic, I'm afraid that there's not much to do in the early hours of Day One. We'll just have to wait until someone slips up or some piece of evidence falls from the sky.

Namaste, everyone!

[Peanuts]

This mob is going to take every fun out of our lives. I mean, who shall I date when we're all dead? And who shall I get drunk with? Let's make sure it doesn't get that far.

Unfortunately I haven't seen anything scummy so far, so I don't know who we should lynch. But we have to lynch someone, I feel.

Well, let's have some drinks first. I always get the best ideas while drinking. Or dating. Or both at the same time.

I've never heard about our town havig a coroner, but why would we need one? This mime is all biodegradable substance.

[RileyC]

I am prepared to wait a day before we lynch some one off. Just because with no real evidence given at all so far it's the safe option. I'm not prepared to vote off one of our own. That being said if someone is being scummy I will seriously consider. I just hope we get some good solid evidence during the day...

[Fugazi]

I am prepared to wait a day before we lynch some one off. Just because with no real evidence given at all so far it's the safe option. I'm not prepared to vote off one of our own. That being said if someone is being scummy I will seriously consider. I just hope we get some good solid evidence during the day...

Prudence is commendable. Chances are that if we vote we make a wrong choice, considering the numbers and the absence of solid evidence. On the other hand, voting behaviour can help guide our actions tomorrow. Because nothing guarantees that evidence will surface during the night, or that it will come from trustworthy sources anyway.

[CorneliusMurdock]

What has my life come to, no girl, an addiction to heroin, gambling and booze.

Sounds like someone could be easily manipulated by the mob... Is there a vice you don't have? I think we, the town, should keep an eye on you.

[Masked Builder]

Morning all! I'm inclined to wait for a slip up by mafia member. That or evidence falling from the sky.

Now where can I get some vodka?

[KartoffelViking]

Whoah, I've certainly been busy with all those folks leaving town. Lots of opportunities to write fines

But I believe I'm off duty now, so I may as well have a drink while waiting for everyone to make their presence known. We have tough decisions to make ahead of us, and we'd better make sure our choices are as informed as they can be.

Some say we are likely to make the wrong decision today, but let's at least not make it a rushed one. And with a bit of luck, we'll be sending a piece of scum on their merry way to hell!

[Sirius Black]

To attempt a vote, or not to attempt a vote? That is the question for today. Whatever we do, a random vote is not a good course of action. The odds are in their favor with a random vote. I'm inclined to see what happens as the day progresses, and possibly attempt a vote, but we need to be careful lest we accidentally vote off a honest member of our town.

[Quarryman]

The problem with not attempting a vote is that there will be a penalty if we don't reach a conviction, even if we don't have someone we're comfortable with lynching we might have to, so it seems we're between the hammer and the sickle here so to speak.

[Big Cam]

I am prepared to wait a day before we lynch some one off. Just because with no real evidence given at all so far it's the safe option.

But it's not, per above, there will be a penalty if a lynching is not agreed upon.

I agree we have nothing right now, but hopefully some information presents itself.

Also a mime is a terrible thing to waste.

[Sandy]

Dreadful business, I agree. Moonlight has never been an easy place to live in, I can tell you. First Sarah and I lost our older daughter Florence, and soon after our precious Darlene. A parent should never outlive their children, I can vouch that the saying is true. We are lucky to have Ivan as our son-in-law, there has never been a more brave and upstanding man in this city.

Thanks to Ivan, I feel as if all you Russians are my family. And when something threatens his family, a man must stand up and fight. I will fight with you until we've ousted the very last mobster from our midst, this I swear!

[def]

The problem with not attempting a vote is that there will be a penalty if we don't reach a conviction, even if we don't have someone we're comfortable with lynching we might have to, so it seems we're between the hammer and the sickle here so to speak.

Do you think the penalty could be worse than losing a good member of our town? I'm not sure it would be.

[Tamamono]

I agree. Something minor can be enough reason to vote, and certainly will give us leads for tomorrow. I remember reading an excellent novel where an incredible town voted off the only werewolf on the first day. Given, that was a slip-up on the wolf's part, but still, that was something. Who's to say it can't happen again?

It's true. Behavior is the only thing we have to base a conviction on today, and there's not even going to be much of that. If we're going to catch a scum today, we'll have to examine what everyone has said very thoroughly and make an educated decision.

[CorneliusMurdock]

Do you think the penalty could be worse than losing a good member of our town? I'm not sure it would be.

You know who god is, right? Not to get evangelical or anything, the almighty is wise but prone to fits of wackiness. I don't think any of us can be sure what god will or won't do.

Regardless of any potential penalty, the choice is really do we sit on our butts and do nothing or become proactive in routing out the scum. If we do nothing and the night yields no more information than we already have, what do we do tomorrow?

[WhiteFang]

Everyone I have been doing some bit of thinking for the past hour or so and I have came out with some useful inference for us to consider and take note, especially given the vulnerable situation of Day 1. Therefore,instead of putting ourselves in pitiful drunken state, I urge all to consider the following statements very carefully.

I refer to our honourable man, Agent Sky who have warned our dear Ivan of some warning signs. Understanding that the FBI is now following a track and looking for the Russian Mafia which have now successfully infiltrated among us. Below is the quote of what Agent Sky had mentioned.

"Ivan," Agent Sky said calmly, "The danger is very real, and it's growing all the time. The Russian Mafia has been recruiting citizens here at an alarming rate. The crime rate is very high and citizens, once again, are leaving this town. It's all around you. You must see it! And they're getting harder to track, Ivan. Our agents have lost track of some of the goons they were following. One has become almost completely undetect..."

From Sky's departing words, I made a bold assumption and noted the following important notes.

Firstly, we, townies are in extreme danger and we are in constant fear of being converted either day or night to the dark side depending on the Russian Mafia operating nature of recruiting new scums into their family. We can't afford to trust anyone completely at this stage and in later stages too, as we had a risk of being converted including myself. Therefore, we need to exercise extreme discretion and caution when we are being approached in private.

Next, among the Russian Mafia family, there is one crafty and sly character which is almost completely undetectable. I remembered reading many books before, it also meant that the character owns the similar Ninja affiliated ability and our dear investigator might very much likely get a positive reading of that secretive character as townie upon investigation. I do safely think that person is one of a low probable hit rate since we got more townies among us. Then again, please do not forget about this vital point.

I suppose in every opening day, there is not much clues being made and all we can do right now is to organise our thoughts carefully and make ourselves useful to our cause to hunt those Russian Mafia at this very start.

[Big Cam]

Do you think the penalty could be worse than losing a good member of our town? I'm not sure it would be.

Actually the logical answer is yes it is likely going to be as bad or worse. Otherwise it wouldn't be a penalty.

[Tamamono]

Do you think the penalty could be worse than losing a good member of our town? I'm not sure it would be.

As my good sister Nika said, we have no idea what the penalty will be. It could be anything from losing a random non-voter to having cute little lapdogs thrown at us all.

Firstly, we, townies are in extreme danger and we are in constant fear of being converted either day or night to the dark side depending on the Russian Mafia operating nature of recruiting new scums into their family. We can't afford to trust anyone completely at this stage and in later stages too, as we had a risk of being converted including myself. Therefore, we need to exercise extreme discretion and caution when we are being approached in private.

Good point, Wilem. Unless Sky was just throwing words around, there's a pretty good chance that the mafia have a converting action. That's going to make this ordeal twice as hard, because then the mafia can convert those who have already been cleared by investigation results.

[WhiteFang]

Good point, Wilem. Unless Sky was just throwing words around, there's a pretty good chance that the mafia have a converting action. That's going to make this ordeal twice as hard, because then the mafia can convert those who have already been cleared by investigation results.

I strongly believes and stand by deceased Agent Sky's departing words. He is a man of integrity and I urge all not to overlook his points.

It makes them hard, but I am sure if there is an experienced investigator hiding among us, I am sure it will not be hard for the investigators to spot the potential behavioral differences.

[def]

Actually the logical answer is yes it is likely going to be as bad or worse. Otherwise it wouldn't be a penalty.

I don't think it will be worse. As bad, maybe.

If there is a lynch, worst case scenario, we lose a valuable town role.

If there is no lynch, I imagine a non-voter might be taken. Maybe. But, I think God loves his game so much that he wouldn't allow a scum member or an ability member of town to be taken out for those reasons, especially on the first day. So the worst case scenario is a vanilla townie is taken out.

I think it's good for us to vote, but since a majority is needed for a lynch, we'd be better off voting without necessarily reaching a lynch, unless there is genuinely something suspicious to go after. I've never been a fan of these abstract penalties. I seem to recall being martyred in a past life partly because of 'penalty fear,' and frankly, I don't care for it.

But I'm just a drunken laborer, what do I know?

[CorneliusMurdock]

So your best case for not voting is a vanilla townie dies? Besides making to many assumptions about god's intentions, it sounds like a stupid thing to do anyway.

If we vote we have the chance of voting off a scum. If we don't, the BEST case (full of holes) is that we'll lose a loyal member without a night action.

Your third choiice of everyone voting without convicting would require an amount of teamwork that would be impossible at this stage. There's not enough trust built up. Besides the scum won't be sitting on their hands. They WILL convert or kill one of us tonight. We can't status this quo.

I say we vote. It's the only chance we have. We should make a careful decision about the person we should vote off to improve our chances but we should vote.

[Fugazi]

I don't think it will be worse. As bad, maybe.

If there is a lynch, worst case scenario, we lose a valuable town role.

If there is no lynch, I imagine a non-voter might be taken. Maybe. But, I think God loves his game so much that he wouldn't allow a scum member or an ability member of town to be taken out for those reasons, especially on the first day. So the worst case scenario is a vanilla townie is taken out.

I think it's good for us to vote, but since a majority is needed for a lynch, we'd be better off voting without necessarily reaching a lynch, unless there is genuinely something suspicious to go after. I've never been a fan of these abstract penalties. I seem to recall being martyred in a past life partly because of 'penalty fear,' and frankly, I don't care for it.

I agree with most of your analysis, but not with your conclusion.

If there is a penalty then it's very likely a townie who will suffer from it, but I believe any townie is a valuable asset regardless of having or not a night action.

There's not much point in voting if we agree from the start that we shouldn't reach a majority -- the votes would be meaningless or misleading. So, either we vote for the lynch and risk losing a valuable action, or we don't vote and risk a penalty -- or perhaps just a warning this time? But only the lynch will give us information and a chance at hitting scum, while taking the penalty will at best leave us tomorrow in the same position as we are today.

So it's like investing really. The safe option with low profit likelihood or the risky one that's potentially more profitable.

[Quarryman]

I don't think it will be worse. As bad, maybe.

I'd assume it is at least as bad, else it wouldn't be much of a penalty, like Benji and Falicia have already pointed out.

[Tamamono]

I don't think it will be worse. As bad, maybe.

If there is a lynch, worst case scenario, we lose a valuable town role.

Yes, that could very well happen, but you're neglecting to mention that there is a chance that we'll lynch a scum today. You're only acknowledging one side of the coin.

If there is no lynch, I imagine a non-voter might be taken. Maybe. But, I think God loves his game so much that he wouldn't allow a scum member or an ability member of town to be taken out for those reasons, especially on the first day. So the worst case scenario is a vanilla townie is taken out.

So you'd rather 'play it safe' and let a vanilla townie die than try to convict a scum? You do understand that the majority of us are probably vanilla townies anyway, so we might as well take the route that gives us a chance at getting rid of a scum today.

[def]

If there is a penalty then it's very likely a townie who will suffer from it, but I believe any townie is a valuable asset regardless of having or not a night action.

Depends on the townie I wasn't saying a vanilla townie wasn't an asset, but we'd be hurt losing an ability on the first days vote.

But I can see your point. I think a pro-active vanilla townie is better to us in the long run than a half-playing townie with an ability.

So your best case for not voting is a vanilla townie dies?

No, I said worst case. That's why I said worst

Your third choiice of everyone voting without convicting would require an amount of teamwork that would be impossible at this stage. There's not enough trust built up. Besides the scum won't be sitting on their hands. They WILL convert or kill one of us tonight. We can't status this quo.

Huh? How would it take teamwork to not reach a majority? If anything, if people started jumping on a bandwagon for no reason, it would make them stand out. We need, what, 14 or 15 people to agree on a person to reach a majority? That requires a lot more teamwork, or it requires a sheep-like voting style. I also think scum will be happy to vote out someone today since it's unlikely they'll fall victim to it.

Anyway, it seems people are pretty worried about this vague "penalty..." so do as you will.

I will vote, but I'll have to take in what everyone's said before doing so. Wilem (Whitefang) seems to be thinking about things in a town-like manner. After my nap, I'll have to go over everything that's been said and separate the real opinions from the filler.

[Brickdoctor]

You guys sure talked a lot while I was asleep.

Yes, that could very well happen, but you're neglecting to mention that there is a chance that we'll lynch a scum today. You're only acknowledging one side of the coin.

Indeed. I don't think we can expect to win in this situation if we play it safe and don't take any risks.

And I agree with Wilem, there is in all probability a converter on the scum side. It's in the rules: (this from the Confirmation and Discussion thread; it doesn't appear in the first post of this thread)

If you are converted, you must accept your new affiliation. If it's proven that you gave up your new team after conversion, the whole game will be null and you will most likely not to be asked to play one of my games again.