Excalibur Mafia 4 - Day Three

[Bob]

Excalibur Mafia 4

Day Three: Good News and Bad News

Still in engineering the previous day, the crew decides to have Lietuenant Heecan (jimmynick) arrested and interrogated.

"It's not me, guys! Trust me!"

But his pleas fall on deaf ears.

"Tell it to the space judge." the security officer says, leading Heecan away.

The next morning, the morning shift finds Dr. Hailey Macdougal (Tariq j) dead on the bridge. The crew mulled around to consider their options for today.

Still lacking an NPC to give out helpful information, the voice booms again out of nowhere.

Reechsavo Heecan (jimmynick) was Corrupted! Hailey Macdougal (Tariq j) was Town!

---

Players (5):

Lt. Commander Dustin Pherson - Duvors

Lt. Commander Hiveon Cheseelo - Zepher

Lieutenant James Riley - Rumble Strike

Lieutenant Christine Arnold - EmersonDAnite
 
Lieutenant Gabriel Fenton - KotZ

Dead (3):

Commander Te'voka - Darkdragon (Town)

Lieutenant Reechsavo Heecan - Jimmynick (Corrupted)

Lt. Commander Dr. Hailey Macdougal - Tariq j (Town)

Rules:
1) You are either Town or Corrupted. The town need to eliminate the mafia and the mafia need to outnumber the town. In the hopefully unlikely event of a parity, the mafia will win. There are no third parties.
2) A game day will last 72 hours. You may vote after 24 hours. Even if a majority vote is achieved, the day will not end early. Nights will last at most 48 hours, during which you can send in your night actions. 
     3a) Do not talk about the game outside of the threads.
3) Each day you can vote to lynch a player. Voting is mandatory. It should be done in this fashion: 
                     Vote: Character (Player)
                     Unvote: Character (Player)
    Ensure your vote is in bold so I don't miss it please!
4) The alignment of players who have been lynched, as well as those who may have died during the night, will be revealed at the beginning of the next day. 
5) You may not quote or pretend to quote anything sent to you by the game host via PM. This includes the details of your character and role, as well as any night actions results. Role claims and reporting of results are acceptable, but in your own words only.
6) If you die, you may not post in thread or discuss the game with any players. Any information you had is not allowed to be passed on under any circumstances. 
7) Don't edit your posts, please!
8) Please try to post every day!

[Zepher]

Well! That's wonderful! It is a shame about the good doctor Macdougal, but we had a successful lynch, and that puts us in a relatively good position all things considered! We finally have some significant voting patterns to look at. I was very afraid as the last simulation was truly a slow march to death - this is already playing out differently. That being said, I don't regret my suggestion yesterday, and in fact still stand by it, especially as I suspect we are now 4 to 1, with possibly two confirmed members of the town! That is, as others have pointed out, pre-supposing that the investigator isn't a one-shot, and isn't dead. But at this point it may even be worth them revealing themselves, even in the case there is no doctor.

As for voting analysis. I won't analyze myself, obviously, leaving that all to you, and instead look at the others.

Lt. Pherson led off the voting with a vote for a member of the town, but withdrew it before any other votes were cast. This potentially was an attempt to lead a vote, and seeing no traction, they backed down. They then voted for Lt. Riley, when they had two votes on them (one of which was from a corrupted) without justifying their vote. This pattern would lead me to corrupted... but they then transferred their vote to the corrupted, tipping the scale in that direction. That would be odd behavior for corrupted unless they thought there was going to be no lynch. All said, I'm leaning town, if barely.

Fenton is a quick analysis. They were very quiet, but did hammer the corrupted, when that wasn't technically required, and the lynch wasn't a sure thing until they showed. I'm feeling that must be town, or a very audacious corrupted play that would be difficult to reason with.

Lt. Arnold is also a quick analysis. Their one and only vote was for the corrupted, a second vote after Lt. Riley submitted their vote. This could be an okay place for a scum player to place themself: it didn't seem that Heecan was in danger of being lynched at this point, so this could be a classic "corrupted voting corrupted in a low stakes situation, possibly not leading to a corrupted lynch" so that IF either were lynched down the line, they could say, no, see, we voted against each other.

Finally, there is Lt. Riley. As votes were mounting against them, they placed a vote against Heecan. This still strikes me as odd. Perhaps seeing the danger they were in, they were voting for an ally, so if Riley flipped corrupted this morning, Heecan would look clean. It also flies in the face of their argument earlier in the day, that the non-voters of day one are probably not corrupted. They seem to switch this position half-way through the day?

If I had to pick the final(?) corrupted, it would be one of the latter two.

[Rumble Strike]

Unfortunately my attendance on the bridge may be spotty today. It is great that we got a Corrupted, note that I was first to vote for him when I had a few votes on me. That would be a ridiculous play if I were also Scum, there would be absolutely no point in doing it when a few others were under more suspicion. 

Fenton as the hammer makes me lean Town on him, as Scum would have been perfectly happy with no lynches the first 2 days.

 

Cheseelo is leading the conversation and is engaged, leaning Town.

 

Pherson is also engaged, maybe more middle of the road. Undecided.

 

Arnold is very quiet, not had much to say but did follow my vote on Heecan when they could of added to my votes - would it have been the hammer? Need to check. Undecided.

 

[Rumble Strike]

11 hours ago, Zepher said:

Well! That's wonderful! It is a shame about the good doctor Macdougal, but we had a successful lynch, and that puts us in a relatively good position all things considered! We finally have some significant voting patterns to look at. I was very afraid as the last simulation was truly a slow march to death - this is already playing out differently. That being said, I don't regret my suggestion yesterday, and in fact still stand by it, especially as I suspect we are now 4 to 1, with possibly two confirmed members of the town! That is, as others have pointed out, pre-supposing that the investigator isn't a one-shot, and isn't dead. But at this point it may even be worth them revealing themselves, even in the case there is no doctor.

As for voting analysis. I won't analyze myself, obviously, leaving that all to you, and instead look at the others.

Lt. Pherson led off the voting with a vote for a member of the town, but withdrew it before any other votes were cast. This potentially was an attempt to lead a vote, and seeing no traction, they backed down. They then voted for Lt. Riley, when they had two votes on them (one of which was from a corrupted) without justifying their vote. This pattern would lead me to corrupted... but they then transferred their vote to the corrupted, tipping the scale in that direction. That would be odd behavior for corrupted unless they thought there was going to be no lynch. All said, I'm leaning town, if barely.

Fenton is a quick analysis. They were very quiet, but did hammer the corrupted, when that wasn't technically required, and the lynch wasn't a sure thing until they showed. I'm feeling that must be town, or a very audacious corrupted play that would be difficult to reason with.

Lt. Arnold is also a quick analysis. Their one and only vote was for the corrupted, a second vote after Lt. Riley submitted their vote. This could be an okay place for a scum player to place themself: it didn't seem that Heecan was in danger of being lynched at this point, so this could be a classic "corrupted voting corrupted in a low stakes situation, possibly not leading to a corrupted lynch" so that IF either were lynched down the line, they could say, no, see, we voted against each other.

Finally, there is Lt. Riley. As votes were mounting against them, they placed a vote against Heecan. This still strikes me as odd. Perhaps seeing the danger they were in, they were voting for an ally, so if Riley flipped corrupted this morning, Heecan would look clean. It also flies in the face of their argument earlier in the day, that the non-voters of day one are probably not corrupted. They seem to switch this position half-way through the day?

If I had to pick the final(?) corrupted, it would be one of the latter two.

As to your point about me changing my mind halfway through the day regarding the day one non voters, yes you are right.  I gave them the benefit of the doubt early on, but when most of us were discussing things, neither were very vocal for the second day running so I stated I would be likely to vote for one of them. 

I don't think a change in my position there is unreasonable.

[KotZ]

Heyo we got one! Sad to lose Macdougal though. Cheseelo has some pretty good analysis there. Riley also just has made a reasonable defense. So do we lean towards Arnold for today? As Cheese man mentioned, it's a great place for scum to vote.

[Rumble Strike]

I just checked and I had 3 votes on me when Arnold voted for Heecan after I had done so. Arnold would have been the hammer if they would have followed the bandwagon and voted for me. From my point of view that is a Town move.

 

Equally Pherson took off his vote for me and went for Heecan. That was vote 3, unnecessary for a Scum to put his teammate in danger, albeit close to the end of the Day.

 

As mentioned, Fenton was the hammer for Heecan and that's a massive Town move because if he was Scum he could have tied it up again or even voted for anyone else.

 

It is a shame Macdougal didn't get to vote, would have given us more to go on.

 

So from my vote analysis it is Cheseelo who didn't try to get someone who we later found out was Scum. However all he said during his actual vote for me was that he found me "slightly suspicious" with no further analysis at that time, although he had given out a lot of questions which I answered, not to his satisfaction, clearly.

[Duvors]

So, as everyone has pointed out, Fenton is a confirmed loyal crew member. There's no need for further discussion on that point. Arnold seems like a generic crew member to me, not really pinging my sensors. Based on their behavior yesterday, I believe Cheseelo is also on our side. That only leaves me and Riley in my mind.

Yesterday I just really wanted a lynch and wasn't particularly picky as to who. I was just following everyone else and it wasn't until right at the end of the day that people began voting for someone I was genuinely a little suspicious of.

I'll be honest, I'm not feeling well and I don't think I'll be able to keep playing these games after this. The stress is too much.

[Bob]

You may now vote! With 5 players remaining, a majority of 3 is required to lynch. 48 hours remain in this day. 

[Rumble Strike]

Wow, it is quiet on the bridge.  Not good when we must be close to the end, surely there can only be 1 Corrupted left amongst the 5 of us left.

We can't let apathy win today, we must try for a lynch.  I have talked a lot today and hopefully you can follow my reasoning when I say that Cheseelo seems to be the weakest link here in terms of previous voting.

I will 

vote: Lt Cheseelo (Zepher)

Who has admittedly spoken a lot, tried to add reasons to his ideas, but may just be a very clever Scum who has taken up the talkative position and is  leading from the front.

The only other thing that pings me is his belief that Power roles should out themselves, it is clear that if any are still alive, they are not happy coming forward.  

[Zepher]

Agreed, very quiet. I was hoping to hear from people - especially since I suspect both you and Arnold, and we haven't heard from Arnold. But I agree, we will need to make this vote a reality. For now... I suppose I will...

Vote: Lt. Arnold (EmersonDAnite). You two are my suspects, but you are contributing, so if we must lose one of you two, I suppose it'd be them.

[EmersonDAnite]

After a quick review of yesterday, I'm personally a little suspicious of Duvors. There was a lot of vote flip-flopping, and - more interestingly - his initial choice of lynch was later murdered by corrupted in the night. I'm not sure if it's enough to go off of though.

I will obviously not be voting for myself (as I am thouroughly convinced of my innocence!) but I am trying to sort out how I feel about everyone's analysis.

[KotZ]

Let's get a lynch.

Vote: Lt. Arnold (EmersonDAnite)

[Bob]

Vote Count:
Hiveon (Zepher) - 1 (Rumble Strike)
Christine (EmersonDAnite) - 2 (Zepher, KotZ)

With 5 players remaining, a majority of 3 is required! About 4 hours remain in this day. 

19 hours ago, Rumble Strike said:

vote: Lt Cheseelo (Zepher)

16 hours ago, Zepher said:

Vote: Lt. Arnold (EmersonDAnite)

2 hours ago, KotZ said:

Vote: Lt. Arnold (EmersonDAnite)

 

[Rumble Strike]

I would really like a lynch but I just know that Arnold didn't hammer me and followed my vote for an eventual Scum in Heecan - surely if they were also Scum it would have been a lot easier just to hammer me rather than set up some elaborate Scum double bluff with regards to voting. It's such a small game, there aren't any long term strategies needed, just lynch Townies during the day and kill them at night.

However I don't think Arnold has added a lot to the actual discussion throughout the days, and I do put a lot of stead in contributing to the days because that's where we can find inconsistencies and ask questions.

Arnold's point about Pherson is a good one but having played with Pherson in several previous simulations he does vote and unvote regularly whatever his allegiance, that's just how he approaches the simulations. However, he hasn't voted yet today, I hope he is OK.

[EmersonDAnite]

vote: Lt Cheseelo (Zepher)

And it will be up to Pherson to decide our fates.

[Duvors]

I'm sorry I haven't spoken up much, feeling a bit out of sorts.

I'm not really happy with this vote, I don't have any genuine suspicions either way, but I'm scared of the possibility of letting the corrupted kill us off one-by-one while we do nothing. Ultimately, I trust Cheseelo more.

Vote: Lt. Arnold (EmersonDAnite)

[Bob]

With a day that went on a bit too long...

Vote Count:
Hiveon (Zepher) - 2 (Rumble Strike, EmersonDAnite)
Christine (EmersonDAnite) - 3 (Zepher, KotZ, Duvors)

With 5 players remaining, a majority of 3 is required! Therefore, Christine Arnold (EmersonDAnite) has been lynched! 

Make sure you get your night actions in!

6 hours ago, EmersonDAnite said:

vote: Lt Cheseelo (Zepher)

56 minutes ago, Duvors said:

IVote: Lt. Arnold (EmersonDAnite)