Lego clearly doesnt want my money!

[allanp]

36 minutes ago, Lyichir said:

IIRC a big part of the reason 9V tracks with exposed metal rails went away had to do with evolving toy safety standards and requirements. Current regulations in the U.S. at least bar the use of live electrical components that are not sealed in protective plastic, which would include 9V powered rails. I guess Lego could possibly return to offering metal-sheathed rails WITHOUT having them be powered (maintaining battery powered trains on metal tracks), but doing so would be a pretty big expense for a mere cosmetic upgrade—not a recipe for success for an already expensive range of products.

That doesn't surprise me. But Hornby trains (like the Harry Potter Hogwarts express) are sold by Walmart in the US. It has electric track with plug in power supply, and is a toy with appeal to kids. Advertised as being for "adult, teens, child". Only not suitable for 3 years and under. 

Edited April 20, 2022 by allanp

[*thomas*]

7 hours ago, andythenorth said:

Because the sets are an easy sell for kids' Christmas and birthdays. 

It's not hard to figure out is it, really? 

I get it why 'a train set' (or every big city set) is something that is aimed at X-mas and B-days, but I just can't understand why these trains are on a 4-year cycle, why LEGO never (ever) has released extra rolling stock in the last 15 years, why they have released 3 creator export trains 10 years ago, have done the same thing 2 years ago and are now going 'full monty' with a 500 dollar HP train set. It's a very, very strange marketing strategy that has no room for common sense.

[andythenorth]

1 hour ago, allanp said:

But Hornby trains (like the Harry Potter Hogwarts express) are sold by Walmart in the US. It has electric track with plug in power supply, and is a toy with appeal to kids.

The Hornby mains-powered controller supplied in train sets has a super-aggressive safety cutout.  It trips if it even smells a short, and has a timeout of a couple of minutes. 

It's safer yes, but it really destroys play value. Crashing or derailing a train triggers the cutout, then it's rain-stopped-play for a couple of minutes. 

And there's zero chance of fun to be had from licking both rails at once with the power on.

 

[Toastie]

1 hour ago, *thomas* said:

It's a very, very strange marketing strategy that has no room for common sense.

Well. Maybe a change of perspective may at least shed some light on TLG marketing strategy - but this is entirely a shot in the dark ...

Just follow the money.

"Creator Expert in Black Box" from two years ago, the Croc: Aimed at rich adults. The display folks. Test balloon and maybe was a success. 

10 years ago, the world was spinning much slower - and what the profit for TLG was (these were not necessarily display models) - who knows.

Everything before that: Different world.

A 500 dollar HP train set is not a full monty "HP train set", it is a full monty "HP set". Aimed at HP folks. They'd buy whatever claims to be HP stuff. HP author got rich with books = good indication for very big fan base. TLG plays along - and hopes to bolster revenue - and their numbers for other sold HP sets will tell them.

From this perspective, it becomes rather clear what they are doing, over in marketing: They do what marketing folks do; they try to maximize profit. And trains per se are not good for that goal. Ib also believe TLG is (perpetually) fishing for new customers (moms and dads etc.), so a $20 rolling stock item - make it $50 - does not make much sense for the marketing folks: New customers don't have track, engines, nothing. So better crank out another $20 - $50 ... plane. Or truck. Or car. No need for more than that (a self-contained set) to make a new kid on the block happy. A two axle freight wagon, however, may raise some very young eyebrows ...

Oh well, who knows.

Best,
Thorsten

[Toastie]

27 minutes ago, andythenorth said:

It's safer

This - I sometimes wonder, how much more safety is required, to save Homo sapiens from extinction by Accidental Misusage Of Whatever (I can see the title of a future Nature article in 2084: "Homo sapiens populations in over-developed countries drastically reduced by AMOW").

Best,
Thorsten

[XG BC]

3 hours ago, Lyichir said:

IIRC a big part of the reason 9V tracks with exposed metal rails went away had to do with evolving toy safety standards and requirements. Current regulations in the U.S. at least bar the use of live electrical components that are not sealed in protective plastic, which would include 9V powered rails. I guess Lego could possibly return to offering metal-sheathed rails WITHOUT having them be powered (maintaining battery powered trains on metal tracks), but doing so would be a pretty big expense for a mere cosmetic upgrade—not a recipe for success for an already expensive range of products.

can you explain why us plugs still have fully metal prongs then? if you plug them in halfway you get contact AND are able to touch 120v mains voltage directly with your fingers. on voltages higher than like 50 or so volts i can understand but on 9v? no! the thing is people are just utterely stupid nowadays and have absolutely zero common sense.

Edited April 20, 2022 by XG BC

[Toastie]

29 minutes ago, XG BC said:

the thing is people are just utterely stupid nowadays and have absolutely zero common sense

So true.

However, in all their stupidity, they do know how to reach lawyers, by phone, Whatsapp, and Whatsnot - and tell them to sue ... Suing doesn't need any common sense, nor much sense at all.

So I guess this is all on "us" ...

Best,
Thorsten 

[andythenorth]

1 hour ago, XG BC said:

no! the thing is people are just utterely stupid nowadays and have absolutely zero common sense.

Lol. This fallacy.

What actually happened is that people are just people, and seem to be consistently about the same as far as common sense goes, from the cultural evidence we have.  

And in the past what happened is, a lot of people got dead.  From many many things.

But probably not from Lego Trains eh.

GG WP.

[XG BC]

9 hours ago, Toastie said:

So true.

However, in all their stupidity, they do know how to reach lawyers, by phone, Whatsapp, and Whatsnot - and tell them to sue ... Suing doesn't need any common sense, nor much sense at all.

So I guess this is all on "us" ...

Best,
Thorsten 

this is what i ment with stupid. back in the old days if you fell off a bicycle you didnt look for who to sue generally if it was clearly your own fault. dont get me wrong guys some safety innovations make sense and i generally am all for improving safety (for example airbags and seatbelts in cars) but you always can go to far with it. eliminating 9v  conductive rails for "safety" is one of these cases in my opinion.

[zephyr1934]

17 hours ago, andythenorth said:

And there's zero chance of fun to be had from licking both rails at once with the power on. 

I just can't help myself... but can you blame me?

 

17 hours ago, Toastie said:

New customers don't have track, engines, nothing. So better crank out another $20 - $50 ... plane. Or truck. Or car. No need for more than that (a self-contained set) to make a new kid on the block happy. A two axle freight wagon, however, may raise some very young eyebrows ...

You know, that kind of explains why so much freight traffic has moved from trains to trucks in the US (but I'm wandering completely off topic)

 

6 hours ago, XG BC said:

eliminating 9v  conductive rails for "safety" is one of these cases in my opinion.

The main reason Lego eliminated 9v was cost (safety might have been a secondary benefit, but cost was the #1 reason). Lego had to make the track, ship it to a third party to make and add the metal, then ship it back, then package it. Components like switches and cross-tracks required complex assembly. They were making $0 on the track. Back before Lego went corporate it was okay to not make a profit, but they did go too far into quality that they almost went bankrupt doing it.  So someone eventually realized how much they were losing on the metal track, they did like their fans enough that they ran the molds until they needed to be redone and then ceased production. After which they switched to plastic, costing only a few pennies per segment but selling for over 50% of what the metal track sold for and definitely a profit making part.

[dr_spock]

18 hours ago, andythenorth said:

The Hornby mains-powered controller supplied in train sets has a super-aggressive safety cutout.  It trips if it even smells a short, and has a timeout of a couple of minutes. 

It's safer yes, but it really destroys play value. Crashing or derailing a train triggers the cutout, then it's rain-stopped-play for a couple of minutes. 

And there's zero chance of fun to be had from licking both rails at once with the power on.

 

That's no fun.  You don't get to learn what a real electrical short smells like or see real burned motor smoke coming out of your HO EMD F9 engine.  For the record, I never licked my HO metal tracks but I did use sugar for track ballast.  Mom never busted me for that. 

 

17 hours ago, XG BC said:

can you explain why us plugs still have fully metal prongs then? if you plug them in halfway you get contact AND are able to touch 120v mains voltage directly with your fingers. on voltages higher than like 50 or so volts i can understand but on 9v? no! the thing is people are just utterely stupid nowadays and have absolutely zero common sense.

I did that when I was a kid while unplugging a toy chord organ. My index finger accidentally bridged the hot and neutral prongs.  It was a stimulating experience with 120V AC.  Assuming dry skin has a resistance of 100K ohm, there was at least 1.2 mA flowing across my finger. 

 

[JopieK]

20 hours ago, Lyichir said:

IIRC a big part of the reason 9V tracks with exposed metal rails went away had to do with evolving toy safety standards and requirements. Current regulations in the U.S. at least bar the use of live electrical components that are not sealed in protective plastic, which would include 9V powered rails. I guess Lego could possibly return to offering metal-sheathed rails WITHOUT having them be powered (maintaining battery powered trains on metal tracks), but doing so would be a pretty big expense for a mere cosmetic upgrade—not a recipe for success for an already expensive range of products.

There was a time when train tracks were just powered from the mains. And... LEGO gauge is wider than the rails in those days :)

[Toastie]

1 hour ago, dr_spock said:

It was a stimulating experience with 120V AC

Stimulating is a very nice and proper description!

This was also very stimulating: The capacitors of good old excimer lasers are charged to about 30kV before they discharge that energy to produce a decent pulsed beam of laser light. As an assistant professor, I always tried to fix my excimers myself - the laser company folks charge insane amounts of money for just showing up and talking trash without fixing anything. When they fix "something", regardless what they do, the bill is never <10k. Never. So one day, one of the capacitor banks discharged through my index finger. It's just a pulse, but an extremely stimulating one, leaving a small deep hole in your "skin" + some bodily excitement. Lessons learned: Always discharge the banks before tinkering with the HV supply of an excimer laser.

OK, back to 9V DC. What exactly appears to be the safety concern here?

These are really cool (and still available at the masses):

 

 Just lick both contacts at the same time - quick check for full/half/almost empty.

The advanced user will notice that one can stack them very nicely ... 

Conclusion:

I believe 9V batteries are a deadly threat for Homo sapiens. The metal contacts should thus be covered with some plastic/insulating material. Or made from ABS. Would be cheaper to manufacture as well!
Win-win!

Best,
Thorsten

[emm]

It comes down to economics and sadly trains are not good economics, nor with all the 3rd party vendors does it need to be.

We talk about the hay day of 12v and 9v era (and i was to young and poor to afford more than a basic train set) but at that time lego nearly went bankrupt..twice. They had multiple unique components and this resulted in a complex manufacturing process, slow production rates and general inefficiencies.

What people seem to forget is that lego fired alot of the old staff who only wanted to make unique things for their range. 

The fact of the matter is, Lego do not need to fill the gap for lego train fans.

If you want a points motor there are multiple options out there. Track…..yeap got that covered. You want 9v track…yeap that is coming back as well….Lego will be monitoring this market but it doesn't deem it profitable to enter and really it doesn't need to….if i worked in Legos Cat development department, i wouldnt bother either. Its a niche market and there are 3rd party vendors and like with bricklink if they are deemed to be a good investment….Lego will just buy them.

Then on rolling stock etc, its simple. Shelf space. Lego pay for shelf space and / or stores have to maximise the revenue of said space. Even online stores need to consider rotation and if you go into a store its easy. Lego train or Marvel. 9/10 Marvel is picked up.

Also if you buy a wagon and do not own a train its not any use to a child.
 

Lego changed their boxes to a more adult theme but from what i understand this was done because their data saw AFOL where buying these expensive sets and multiple versions of them and again less colours on the box….less colours, cheaper to manufacture.

I am hoping i am wrong and Lego return back to a hay day but my experience in production / marketing and supply chain tells me….never going to happen.

I do not mean to offend anyone with the post.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by emm

[Toastie]

1 minute ago, emm said:

I do not mean to offend anyone with the post.

As far as I am concerned, you do not offend anyone here, but more so nailed it 100%.

Thank you for your in-depth analysis! Could not agree more.

One (minor) thing that bothers me personally: What TLG pretends to be with all that woo-hoo and tries to tell with all that blah-blah - and what it actually is/has become (or had to): A totally profit oriented enterprise. But then: This is why they sell like crazy. We should not take the "almost going bankrupt twice" as reason for making profit beyond belief. When profit goes through the roof, then, for a so much caring company as TLG pretends to be, there actually is a "window" to just make 0 profit on a certain line. However, tell that a 2022 bachelor or master of business. And these folks operate TLG. And along that line: They have their zero or even negative margin lines, preventing any nice-being; we all know them.

So in essence: I believe you are right.

Best,
Thorsten 

 

[XG BC]

26 minutes ago, emm said:

 I do not mean to offend anyone with the post.

why would you offend anyone? you clearly state reasons. i am fine with that. as far as why lego discontinued 9v i know that it was a cost reason i more just wanted to highlight how stupid the safety rules/regulations are and can be. that is also why i picked the us plug as an example.

[Toastie]

13 minutes ago, XG BC said:

that is also why i picked the us plug as an example.

And that nailed it as well, as @dr_spock nicely illustrated!

That is why I picked the 9V "block" type battery ;)

Best,
Thorsten

[*thomas*]

10 hours ago, emm said:

It comes down to economics and sadly trains are not good economics, nor with all the 3rd party vendors does it need to be.

I do not mean to offend anyone with the post.

You're post isn't offencive in any way, just stating facts.

Still, this brings me back to my first question: 'why does lego even bother with trains?' . 

And second: I think most fans (young or adult) would be happy if LEGO would put a bit more effort into trains. They are doing the same old thing over and over again and I'm sure that as a kid, it doesn't matter, but after a while it's just boring. A shunter train, a passanger train with a locomotive (not a emu or dmu) and 2 carriages, a decent railway station, a proper crossing, a mow vehicule (that could 'brigde' the gap between trains and great vehicules). And they have to stop 'people won't buy this excuse' when they just made a pair of brick build shoes... 

[emm]

I think they will still bother with them because there is still a market…all be it very small but not in the same way 12v and 9v was.

It fits into a section where if a child has the city buildings they can expand to the train to make the city a bit more alive.

The problem is that past the train set & tracks and possible station there is not a big enough market to support the expanded universe. A train is £89.99, now you can get 2x video games for that price and kids will go down the video game market 9/10.

Adding to this Lego have a huge demographic in the early years, then it drops in the teens / young adults then grows again as those early years now have kids and rekindle their love for Lego. These buy multiple sets of the same and often keep them. More over scalping keeps demand and prices high.

The other challenge is Lego would need to compete with actual model railways which on a cost per cost basis is a cheaper alternative.

For me personally i know lego is never going to change and the 12v 9v era is long gone. I am happy with their scraps but as with my model trains, I moved to buying other brands or peoples MOC. My world has exploded now and i run all my switch motors from JMRI software of an ardunio. I am even working on automation via sensors and controllers with real time train display boards.

But if your a Lego only person who only buys Lego then you have to accept it will never change for the foreseeable future.

I hope i am wrong, i really do as id love a-lot more official choice.

 

[andythenorth]

8 hours ago, *thomas* said:

And second: I think most fans (young or adult) would be happy if LEGO would put a bit more effort into trains. They are doing the same old thing over and over again and I'm sure that as a kid, it doesn't matter, but after a while it's just boring.

The lifespan of kids' interest in Lego Trains is probably 2-7 years on average.  My kids interest disappeared after about 5 years.  Most of the play value was in building crazy tracks over obstacles, or building a few train MOCs.  They had almost zero interest in what TLG official train sets were.  Most of their friends had an official set, e.g. the recent cargo or passenger trains, but none of them are very interested.

So I think you're correct, it doesn't matter to kids.

Unrelated, but as a seller in the secondary market, the interest in Lego Trains is minimal, except for sales of spare Emerald Night passenger cars.  Sales of OO/HO trains go much much faster, for higher prices, for items in worse condition.  I've been selling scrap OO trains from the 1980s/90s, which adult collectors buy for spare parts / restoration.  These items sell almost instantly on eBay, and at a higher sale price than Lego train wagons in barely-used condition.

Edited April 22, 2022 by andythenorth

[zephyr1934]

I think Lego is on auto-pilot with the city trains- they make enough money that they can continue, but not enough to get much design attention. From back in the days of ILTCO (roughly 2004-2010) there was also talk about how Lego does not get much from the trains themselves, but they are viewed as the glue that enables massive AFOL city displays. So all they have to do is provide the simple sets and they will see a massive return on investment by AFOL's building not only buildings but also landscape, ballasted track, etc.

[Toastie]

4 hours ago, andythenorth said:

Unrelated, but as a seller in the secondary market,

I believe this is very related, as it is first-hand experience - and you delivered original data. Sure, "just" single point data from you, but they perfectly match with the third party "observations" or conclusions from others. I believe that the posts of @emm , @andythenorth, @zephyr1934 (and others) in this regard should be pinned and used as a reference for all those speculating why TLG is not cranking out rolling stock like crazy because they then will become even richer than in their wildest dreams (not from me, but from Dr. Venkman).

I also very much like the "explosion" of @emm's world, when he was/is resorting to other brands or to non-LEGO "electronics". Exactly the same happened here. It is total fun to break out of the serious suffering caused by the limitations TLG has sentenced. Because they are not "giving" us, what we so desperately wait for. Giving as in coming from heaven. Or beamed down from another universe.

Very nice insights @andythenorth, thank you very much!!!

All the best,
Thorsten 

[XG BC]

true that. only look at fxbricks fxtracks system.

[zephyr1934]

18 hours ago, Toastie said:

I believe this is very related, as it is first-hand experience - and you delivered original data. Sure, "just" single point data from you, but they perfectly match with the third party "observations" or conclusions from others. I believe that the posts of @emm , @andythenorth, @zephyr1934 (and others) in this regard should be pinned and used as a reference for all those speculating why TLG is not cranking out rolling stock like crazy because they then will become even richer than in their wildest dreams (not from me, but from Dr. Venkman).

Actually most of my observations date back to long conversations with various AFOL's that served as input to the train revolution in the early 2000's, serving as an ambassador, and just picking up on trends.  When I was an ambassador I brought up trains every now and then and the big concern from Lego wasn't whether they would be profitable, it was the fact that they wanted a limited number of SKU's. So trains were just not profitable enough to have much presence in the lineup. A self-contained train set sells, a cross track will only sell occasionally, so the minimize # of SKU's does not help a system of trains even if the cross track is only available online direct from Lego. That's bean counters strictly chasing profit. But in all of that the point did come up that Lego does recognize that trains help sell bricks to build large AFOL layouts (though no doubt that Lego administration has probably been completely replaced by now).

Meanwhile, I've probably picked up more insight by participating in the EB forums than I have as a third party seller. I suspect there is an exponential curve of AFOL train fans

1000 AFOL's who bought and built 1-2 train sets (unknown number of them reading but few contributing to EB)

100 AFOL's who modded said train set (like above in terms of participating on EB)

10 AFOL's who MOC and/or buy MOC's but are purists (many of whom participate on EB)

1 AFOL who is over the top (many of whom are more active on other forums)

 

Then there is probably a reverse trend, the further you are down this list, the more likely you are to use third party parts (tracks, batteries, couplers, stickers, rods, etc.). With rods, I am only serving the niche that builds steam engines, so there is a large segment that I never see.

[Toastie]

4 hours ago, zephyr1934 said:

Then there is probably a reverse trend, the further you are down this list, the more likely you are to use third party parts

Again: Thank you very much for these insights. The whole "train thing" really makes much more sense, when all these very valuable and almost "secured" sources are put together. I always just speculate, as I am just sitting here under the roof and think about this and that.

I also do share your "suspicion" (which is much more than that, for sure) about that exponential curve - along with the "trend". And for sure, this curve is affected by third party acceptance. I am again only speculating, but I believe there is much more than these "exclusives gaining attention" happening. Your fantastic rods, track of others, etc. etc. are mostly "exclusives" in my view - TLG does simply not make them. But this market also provides very nice and diverse locomotives, rolling stock, buildings, etc. Which are in full range of TLG, but 100% uninteresting to them, as you and others pointed out. I was not surprised that even Emanuele ( @LEGO Train 12 Volts), in my view a LEGO Train Super MOCer, reaches out to 3rd party (not for exclusives but competing products). This goes all along your reasoning.

Personally, I simply don't care anymore. Nowadays, I browse the BB website way more often than TLG's. As an example: Their 10-wide BR89 is a blast - it is intended to be a shelf model, slightly elevated on the (very nice!) tracked stand, so that even a PF medium motor can turn the wheels. I believe I am now months into converting this thing (was an XMas gift - $70). Rough estimate: There are now 20% LEGO bricks replacing the original stuff - to make in run on track. It now features a TLG City hub (the BB PF compatible controller sucks badly!) and TLG color sensor. The plan is to make it run back and forth on straight track autonomously, using colored tiles, as I have limited space up here. And running the Legoino software from Cornelius on an $10 ESP32 dev board. Almost done.

Conclusion: Yes, TLG is massively missing out; ideas-wise, and building experience-wise. Certainly not revenue wise, as all that above does not make any sense for a (greedy ) company. None whatsoever.

Thanks again and all the best,
Thorsten