Pirates Mafia IV - Day Four

[Rumble Strike]

Well Miss Pierce has enough votes now to be sent overboard. I still don't think her theory has much merit, but it did provide a bit of discussion which has been sorely lackin.

 

1 hour ago, Duvors said:

Yes I savvy, it just be a stupid theory.

Speakin of stupid theories, what does everyone else think of this:

23 hours ago, Duvors said:

At this point, what with nobody dyin', the investigator no making any concrete accusations afore dyin', an' no blocker even hintin' at a possible suspect, I be thinkin' that there be somethin' stoppin' all night actions, not just one person's.

Was somethin stoppin all night actions ever a thing on other voyages? Tis a fancy that seems far beyond the bounds of reality. 

[Duvors]

7 minutes ago, Rumble Strike said:

Was somethin stoppin all night actions ever a thing on other voyages? Tis a fancy that seems far beyond the bounds of reality. 

T' be honest, I be having' no clue. It just be clear tha' somethin' strange be goin' on.

[Rumble Strike]

This boat be silent again. The Scum can hide, knowin that a quiet boat gives us nothin to go on. 

With the majority confirmed on Miss Pierce, who has only spoken up the one time today, I am going to vote for Mr Newport because he has also only spoken up once today. 

 

Vote: Kieran Newport (Tariq j) 

 

The other Day Mr Blake voted for him and he suddenly became more active, let's see if the same thing happens. 

[JintaiZ]

On 8/21/2021 at 7:32 AM, Tariq j said:

Sorry for being late. I had some activities below deck that needed attending.

What activities?

[Tariq j]

Sorry, I have been busy in RL which is why I haven’t been active this (mafia) day compare to other days. I’ve made my suspicions of Vivian clear on previously in the game. The suggestion that the mafia haven’t killed for the past 3 nights rubs me up the wrong way, maybe it’s because it sounds like she’s trying to push the least likely scenario on us? I don’t know. 

16 hours ago, Rumble Strike said:

Was somethin stoppin all night actions ever a thing on other voyages? Tis a fancy that seems far beyond the bounds of reality. 

A quick look in out journals suggests that there is no role that could stop all actions on one night. A mechanic like that feels like it rings a bell.

10 minutes ago, JintaiZ said:

What activities?

Fishing, restocking the barrels, scrubbin’ the decks and watchin’ out for any sea monsters.

[Jack Sassy]

16 hours ago, JintaiZ said:

This won't give scum any advantages.

Perhaps not, but we can't risk that chance to happen, so I be placing me vote on Miss Pierce:

 

Vote: Vivian Pierce (Kaanere)

 

[Kaanere]

Well g'bye all! I guess it was to be expected to be lynched whith the vote penalty and all!

Tomorrow you'll wake up to another townie killed, and the scum will have managed to kill half the town without a single night kill. And if they do kill someone directly (assuming two scum members), there will be a 2v2 situation, where the town can't posibly win. Assuming three scum members, you lose tonight.

So I think it's safe to hand the scum the win just now.

 

[Jack Sassy]

Alright, let us get to the bottom of this. That drink had taken a hold of me way too much, hence me vote on Miss Pierce with no real evidence. Blakey has been too suspicious in me eyes during the voyage (as I've said before) and his arguments seem fake.

On 8/21/2021 at 12:29 AM, Duvors said:

Tha's nonsense. Iffin I was a traitor then killin' on th' first night'd be th' exact thing I would do fer the exact reason ye say I wouldn't. There be absolutely no reason fer the traitors t' sit out th' first night. I voted fer myself because I though if I wasn't voted out the first night then I'd be killed anyway, 'cause that's exactly what happened t' me th' last three times I been in one o' these things.

Master Lawson replied to Blakey's theory:

Quote

Was somethin stoppin all night actions ever a thing on other voyages? Tis a fancy that seems far beyond the bounds of reality.

Blakey argued back:

Quote

T' be honest, I be having' no clue. It just be clear tha' somethin' strange be goin' on.

These do not be sounding like genuine answers to me but just lies. Now, I know, it might seem suspicious to change me vote, but I be finding Blakey more suspicious than Miss Pierce, therefore:

Unvote: Vivian Pierce (Kaanere)

Vote: Murphy Blake (Duvors)

 

If I be dead by nightfall, there could be only one person to blame here, I would never trust someone who looks like me, likes blue a little more and has an eyepatch. Charts may not be my strongest side (part of the reason why I never became a chart man) but I believe it be not long till we reach our destination, meaning, we don't have much time.

[Rumble Strike]

So who do you suspect, Miss Pierce? Who should get the black spot instead o ye? 

[JintaiZ]

@Kaanere Miss Pierce, do you mind giving us some other theories?

[Kaanere]

As for why the traitors would sit three nights out, I see two scenarios:

• The traitors are taking this as a challenge: Highjacking a crew with direct and indirect kills? Done an infinite amount of times (87 to be exact). Highjacking a crew only by convincing the town to lynch themselves? Will easily put them in the history books and sea ballads for generations. What I mean to say is that these traitors don't want the gold, they want the fame and the glory.
• The traitors simply can't kill: Whoever sent them ordered them not to kill directly to keep their hands clean. Maybe they sent more traitors to compensate for their handicap, like three instead of two.

(Somewhat out of character but with clearer points:)

Spoiler

• The traitors are taking this as a challenge: The scum wants to win in a different way than in other mafia games, just for fun. Thus they're trying to kill the town passively. If things don't go well for them they can allways change their plans and start killing.
• The traitors can't kill: This is admitedly more unlikely, as it assumes that the Game Master created a mafia without the ability of night kills so as to diferentiate this game from others. In this case, the line "The game will be a straight-forward and simple mafia unlike other games I've hosted" is just a misdirection for the true nature of the game (which would otherwise be spoiled). I also speculate that the scum is larger than usual to compensate for the lost abilities.

Are passive mafias actually a thing, BTW?

I find the theory of the blocker extremely unlikely (in a numerical sense), as he would need a great luck to correctly guess the killer every night, and I don't think that the scum would have a single player with the ability to kill so the blocker blocking the same player multiple times isn't an explanation either. In either case, the blocker would know by now the identities of the killer/s, so why wouldn't he tell? He's certainly had multiple opportunities to do so by now.

As for voting, I have some suspicions but no confidence on any. I will wait a few hours to see if I'm convinced.

[JintaiZ]

37 minutes ago, Kaanere said:

The traitors are taking this as a challenge: Highjacking a crew with direct and indirect kills? Done an infinite amount of times (87 to be exact). Highjacking a crew only by convincing the town to lynch themselves? Will easily put them in the history books and sea ballads for generations. What I mean to say is that these traitors don't want the gold, they want the fame and the glory.

Again, I don't think your theory makes any sense.

38 minutes ago, Kaanere said:

The traitors simply can't kill: Whoever sent them ordered them not to kill directly to keep their hands clean. Maybe they sent more traitors to compensate for their handicap, like three instead of two.

That's not too likely, either.

[Kaanere]

12 minutes ago, JintaiZ said:

Again, I don't think your theory makes any sense.

That's not too likely, either.

So you think that the blocker correctly guessing the killer three times and not mentioning it is more likely?

[Rumble Strike]

Metagaming here so forgive me lack of piratey talk. Bob has done an anonymous Mafia with no night actions but it was clearly indicated at the beginning of the game. 

[JintaiZ]

5 minutes ago, Kaanere said:

not mentioning it is more likely?

They're sealing their own fate by mentioning it.

5 minutes ago, Kaanere said:

So you think that the blocker correctly guessing the killer three times

They probably guessed it correct on night one and nobody got killed the next day, so they just blocked the same player again.

[Kaanere]

(Continuing)

Mr Nelson, I noticed that you keep saying that my theories make no sense, while not acknowledging my rebuttal of your theory nor giving any alternative theories. Can you elaborate why my theory is more unlikely than the blocker one?

2 minutes ago, Rumble Strike said:

Metagaming here so forgive me lack of piratey talk. Bob has done an anonymous Mafia with no night actions but it was clearly indicated at the beginning of the game. 

Good to know.

[JintaiZ]

59 minutes ago, Kaanere said:

The traitors simply can't kill: Whoever sent them ordered them not to kill directly to keep their hands clean. Maybe they sent more traitors to compensate for their handicap, like three instead of two.

The scum would have almost no advantages in this case.

1 hour ago, Kaanere said:

The traitors are taking this as a challenge: Highjacking a crew with direct and indirect kills? Done an infinite amount of times (87 to be exact). Highjacking a crew only by convincing the town to lynch themselves? Will easily put them in the

Why do they need to take it as a challenge? All they probably want is to win the game.

[Kaanere]

5 minutes ago, JintaiZ said:

They're sealing their own fate by mentioning it.

They probably guessed it correct on night one and nobody got killed the next day, so they just blocked the same player again.

If only one traitor can kill and the blocker has blocked it three times, there's no risk in revealing his name.

If more than one traitor can kill, the blocker and the killer would have to coincide three times, which is practically impossible and would give the blocker the identities of the scum. Unless there are three traitors, he can just give the names and he will be proven right on the next death (once the alignment is revealed; can be the blocker's too).

12 minutes ago, JintaiZ said:

The scum would have almost no advantages in this case.

Why do they need to take it as a challenge? All they probably want is to win the game.

That's the point, you have no proof that all they want is to "win the game". They might want to win the game in a different way, which would explain the lack of kills better than your blocker theory.

[JintaiZ]

1 minute ago, Kaanere said:

That's the point, you have no proof that all they want is to "win the game".

But then again, there are already a lot less scum than town, so they wouldn't want to not use their action.

[Duvors]

1 hour ago, Jack Sassy said:

These do not be sounding like genuine answers to me but just lies. Now, I know, it might seem suspicious to change me vote, but I be finding Blakey more suspicious than Miss Pierce, therefore:

If I be dead by nightfall, there could be only one person to blame here, I would never trust someone who looks like me, likes blue a little more and has an eyepatch. Charts may not be my strongest side (part of the reason why I never became a chart man) but I believe it be not long till we reach our destination, meaning, we don't have much time.

Ev'rythin' I be sayin' out in the open has been th' honest truth. Iffin ye don't believe me that be yer affair, but ye can stuff th' whinin' about how yer doomed fer accusin' me. Ye haven't bin killed since ye accused me on day two, so ye should know by now ye ain't goin' t' die no matter how much ye yell an' shout about it.

1 hour ago, Kaanere said:

• The traitors are taking this as a challenge: Highjacking a crew with direct and indirect kills? Done an infinite amount of times (87 to be exact). Highjacking a crew only by convincing the town to lynch themselves? Will easily put them in the history books and sea ballads for generations. What I mean to say is that these traitors don't want the gold, they want the fame and the glory.
• The traitors simply can't kill: Whoever sent them ordered them not to kill directly to keep their hands clean. Maybe they sent more traitors to compensate for their handicap, like three instead of two.

I don't be known' about anyone else here, but iffin I was a traitor I'd never be doin' the first one, deliberately handicappin' yerself be soundin' like a good way t' lose the game. It be more likely th' blocker got th' traitors picked t' kill on the first two nights by chance, an' they skipped killin' on the third night t' throw 'em off the scent. Fer the second one t' be true, we'd 'ave t' 'ave bin deliberately an' perfidiously lied to, an' I be trustin' our captain (Bob) too much fer that.

21 minutes ago, Kaanere said:

Mr Nelson, I noticed that you keep saying that my theories make no sense, while not acknowledging my rebuttal of your theory nor giving any alternative theories. Can you elaborate why my theory is more unlikely than the blocker one?

T' be honest, tha' wasn't really intended as a serious theory, more a cry o' frustration. That be why I din't try t' defend it. Like I be sayin', I be trustin' the captain too much t' seriously believe it. Sorry, I should a' bin clearer on that score.

[Bob]

Vote Count:
Vivian Pierce (Kaanere) - 4 (penalty, penalty, JintaiZ, Duvors)
Kieran Newport (Tariq j) - 1 (Rumble Strike)
Murphy Blake (Duvors) - 1 (Jack Sassy)

About six and a half hours remain in this day.

On 8/21/2021 at 8:22 AM, JintaiZ said:

Vote: Vivian Pierce (Kaanere)

22 hours ago, Duvors said:

Vote: Vivian Pierce (Kaanere)

7 hours ago, Rumble Strike said:

Vote: Kieran Newport (Tariq j) 

2 hours ago, Jack Sassy said:

Vote: Murphy Blake (Duvors)

 

[Tariq j]

1 hour ago, Kaanere said:

As for why the traitors would sit three nights out, I see two scenarios:

• The traitors are taking this as a challenge: Highjacking a crew with direct and indirect kills? Done an infinite amount of times (87 to be exact). Highjacking a crew only by convincing the town to lynch themselves? Will easily put them in the history books and sea ballads for generations. What I mean to say is that these traitors don't want the gold, they want the fame and the glory.

I find this unlikely. Even though the scum are the informed majority wouldn’t it be too much of a risk to try and get the town to lynch themselves? They have no way of knowing what mechanics/PR roles could be problematic. 
 

34 minutes ago, Kaanere said:

If only one traitor can kill and the blocker has blocked it three times, there's no risk in revealing his name.

If more than one traitor can kill, the blocker and the killer would have to coincide three times, which is practically impossible and would give the blocker the identities of the scum. Unless there are three traitors, he can just give the names and he will be proven right on the next death (once the alignment is revealed; can be the blocker's too).

Alternatively, a protector and the traitor could’ve targeted the same person, which in a game this size is not impossible. 
 

I have to vote and I have no idea what to think. Vivian has been silent and non committed this whole game and is only speaking up because she’s on the brink of being lynched. But is also withholding who she finds suspicious. I’ve seen this scum behaviour before so I’m going to Vote: Vivian Pierce (Kaanere) 

[Jack Sassy]

50 minutes ago, Duvors said:

Ev'rythin' I be sayin' out in the open has been th' honest truth. Iffin ye don't believe me that be yer affair, but ye can stuff th' whinin' about how yer doomed fer accusin' me. Ye haven't bin killed since ye accused me on day two, so ye should know by now ye ain't goin' t' die no matter how much ye yell an' shout about it.

Calm down, Blakey. I be finding ye suspicious and with good reason. I'm guessing that yer not going to kill me tonight because I be the only one to vote ye, similar to the first day, you have no actual threat so far, but I will make sure that ye face justice (that be pirate justice, not quite right regarding casual laws but right for pirates).

[Rumble Strike]

It be a bit late to try and change the crews minds on this, and it's not like Miss Pierce has come out swingin with any kind of defense or ideas as to who else we should lynch, but I had this thought earlier. 

Do ye all not think that if Miss Pierce were Scum and part of a team, that she'd not get herself into a position where she has penalty votes which makes it easier for her to be voted off?

I said before that I found it unlikely a Scum team would sit back and let her talk so infrequently the rest of us end up findin her suspicious. I find it just as unlikely that they would just watch her not talk or vote for a whole Day. If you're Scum, you do try to keep under the radar but not to that extent because it is puttin yourself in jeopardy. 

I dunno, maybe I am overthinkin this, I am just not that confident now that we are on the right track. 

[Kaanere]

2 hours ago, JintaiZ said:

But then again, there are already a lot less scum than town, so they wouldn't want to not use their action.

I'm not sure how that relates to my point: that the scum is trying to avoid night kills as a challenge. The fact that there are less scum that town is where their hypothetical challenge is.

Earlier this morning ye were trying hard to gain insight on my theory (quoting my first post up to four times asking for more). Now it seems like you're trying to steer away from the point, instead of trying to gain further insight. Suffice to say this doen't give me much confidence in your allegiance:

Vote: Noah "The Map" Nelson (JintaiZ)

2 hours ago, Tariq j said:

Alternatively, a protector and the traitor could’ve targeted the same person, which in a game this size is not impossible. 

A protector instead of a blocker would explain why no blocker has shown up, but it still is extremely unlikely that the target would be protected three times in a row (about 1/294 chance). some of the nights not having assasination attempts improves the chances of course, but it's not something I'd wager on.