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LEGO Star Wars 2021 Set Discussion - READ FIRST POST!!!

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Yay!! I was hoping that the Yoda saber wasn’t a one-off and Lego would actually create more of these.

The overall design looks pretty good, too. It’s instantly recognizable.

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New winter set numbers and prices up on the usual place, frustratingly no set names though. Looks like the January wave will have some more sets on the pricey side. 

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21 minutes ago, T21Typhoon said:

New winter set numbers and prices up on the usual place, frustratingly no set names though. Looks like the January wave will have some more sets on the pricey side. 

They have been taken down by original source so I wouldn’t hold much merit to those rn

Edited by Falconfan1414

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17 minutes ago, Falconfan1414 said:

They have been taken down by original source so I wouldn’t hold much merit to those rn

Ah and so they have, thanks for the heads up. Apologies all.

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3 hours ago, The_Chosen_1 said:

Yay!! I was hoping that the Yoda saber wasn’t a one-off and Lego would actually create more of these.

The overall design looks pretty good, too. It’s instantly recognizable.

I am a fan of the sabers, but not how they have been distributed. The first was limited and gone in minutes, and a second comes with a $800 purchase? And won't be hanging around like the sailboat I am sure!

This should be a series like the helmets.

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10 hours ago, Bobbtom said:

As a OT fan, I know that if I miss out on most sets, I can just wait for it to be re-released in probably at most one year. If I wanted an  AT-AT at any time, there's probably one on the shelves or one coming soon.

As a PT fan, some sets get regular re-releases like grevious' starfighter, but for other sets like a AT-TE, obi wan's fighter, or even something as basic as a white clone...well we all know (still waiting for another endor bunker as well :pir-cry_happy:)

I mean, in general we do tend to get OT set remakes more frequently than PT sets, but once you take out the ones that are just the literal most iconic star wars vehicles (falcon, landspeeder, x-wing, tie fighter), it's not that far off between them. Luke's x-wing is released more or less as frequently as anakin's starfighter (delta-7 or eta-2), and much like the landspeeder, we constantly get at-rts. Spider-droids are pretty frequent (lego's spider-man obsession bleeds into the star wars line? :grin:), as is the aforementioned grievous spider.The kashyyyk at-walker i forgot the name of and the HMP gunship are released disturbingly frequently relative to their amount of screen time, possibly due to the price range they can be made at (but still, there had to be SOME better options, right?) The star destroyer and gunship haven't been released since 2014 and 2013 respectively. (in system form of course, we got UCS of both of them). The walkers are a bit different, with 6 years between AT-ATs and at minimum 8 between AT-TEs. To be clear, I think we're well overdue for a system gunship, star destroyer, and AT-TE, though if I had to guess the next one we'll get is an AT-TE next year. Given the UCS sets of the other two, we could legitimately not see system ones for years. Part of the problem, which they seem to be starting to solve, is that the larger system models are getting so expensive, and we only get around 2 $100+ system sets a year. And you've got the falcon, AT-AT, AT-TE, gunship, both star destroyers, jabba's palace and sail barge, an endor bunker, echo base, and so many other sets vying for those spots. Then add in that for the past 6 years many of those spots were used on tie ins for new films that then create more vehicles necessitating more large system sets... and we've got quite a problem. It's sort of three-pronged: star wars needs new content to stay relevant, and those new designs require new sets. You could partially pin it on disney-lucasfilm for having them make some less iconic sets at large price points for new content (galaxy's edge transport), but at the same time with all the new designs, it's nice to get more obscure ships sometimes. You could also pin it on lego themselves depending on how much freedom they have in set choice, or even for their amount of $100+ sets, but market forces can impact that to an extent; people don't have the money for too many $100+ sets, and spending the capital, new molding costs, more/larger factories, and more designers to cover more sets being produced at once would make the sets yet MORE expensive. 

Wow that went on a complete tangent that doesn't even really have a point. TLDR we do get some frequent prequel remakes, they're just weird choices?

4 hours ago, Falconfan1414 said:

They have been taken down by original source so I wouldn’t hold much merit to those rn

Makes sense. I can see this wave being different, but there weren't any microfighters or battle packs there, and I don't believe we'd only get one microfighter (razor crest), though I guess the "normal" battle packs may be the blister pack ones now. Personally I'd like that more than the standard ones if they keep the other blister pack's standard of normal weapons and 2-3 small system scale environmental/supplementary builds rather than a random speeder and stud shooters.

Edited by Mandalorianknight

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23 minutes ago, Mandalorianknight said:

I guess the "normal" battle packs may be the blister pack ones now. Personally I'd like that more than the standard ones if they keep the other blister pack's standard of normal weapons and 2-3 small system scale environmental/supplementary builds rather than a random speeder and stud shooters.

I hope this is the case, as it would make amassing armies cheaper.

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3 hours ago, Sarah_H7744 said:

I hope this is the case, as it would make amassing armies cheaper.

It would also make amassing armies a lot harder as the blister packs are normally exclusive to Lego stores. Plus the moment they include desirable figures like Clone Troopers you can guarantee the scalpers will be hoarding up all the sets before anyone else has a change of scoring a copy.

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23 minutes ago, wesker said:

It would also make amassing armies a lot harder as the blister packs are normally exclusive to Lego stores. Plus the moment they include desirable figures like Clone Troopers you can guarantee the scalpers will be hoarding up all the sets before anyone else has a change of scoring a copy.

Something tells me that if the new battle packs are blister packs, they would no longer be exclusive to lego stores. 

4 hours ago, Sarah_H7744 said:

I hope this is the case, as it would make amassing armies cheaper.

I think they're the same price as battle packs, unfortunately.

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Non-licensed ones are usually $12, but ones like harry potter are $15. Star wars will almost certainly be $15 as well, to capitalize on the desirability. I'm not holding my breath though; I wouldnt' be surprised if one of the blister packs as R2-d2, luke, old obi wan and c-3po

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7 hours ago, Frizzlefry25 said:

I am a fan of the sabers, but not how they have been distributed. The first was limited and gone in minutes, and a second comes with a $800 purchase? And won't be hanging around like the sailboat I am sure!

This should be a series like the helmets.

I agree. Fans have been asking for buildable sabers for so long and now that we’ve got them they’re stuck as GWPs. At least the pieces they use are common, but still there’s the display plaque and the packaging. 

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8 hours ago, Mandalorianknight said:

......TLDR we do get some frequent prequel remakes, they're just weird choices?....

I think it's important to note that the iconic OT vehicles that are constantly re-released are a substantial number of vehicles and sets at various price points whereas the repeating PT sets while frequent are seemingly a small handful in comparison. This is especially glaring when you take into account unique OT sets like the carbonite chamber, hoth medical room, kenobi's hut etc. It's also important to keep in mind that it took an entire new TV show and no other major SW media to get a venator, arc-170, and other much requested sets and figures. With TCW season 7 ending over a year ago the chance is over; I just dont see many PT sets coming back (besides the usual anakin's fighter, at-ap, at-rt, and the occasional gunship etc) anytime soon if at all. I would not be surprised at all if we never see captain rex again until he appears as a major character in some media.

From the preliminary sets for 2022 being leaked, it seems that lego is going to focus on one OT movie at a time for waves, which will take a while if they intend to do thematic waves for all three movies. By the time that's done there likely will be new SW movies that will once again take the spotlight for sets. In addition, the upcoming TV series will likely involve largely non PT locations and vehicles, further decreasing the chances of pt remakes

That being said, from the point of a fan, lego overall has blown it out of the water as a general product. There are so many excellent high-priced $100+ sets coming out than ever before that just disappear off shelves. I'm willing to bet that the market can handle both a system AT-TE and imperial star destroyer being out at the same time, but  we'll have to see

Edited by Bobbtom

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6 hours ago, Mandalorianknight said:
7 hours ago, wesker said:

It would also make amassing armies a lot harder as the blister packs are normally exclusive to Lego stores. Plus the moment they include desirable figures like Clone Troopers you can guarantee the scalpers will be hoarding up all the sets before anyone else has a change of scoring a copy.

Something tells me that if the new battle packs are blister packs, they would no longer be exclusive to lego stores. 

I hope they are not exclusives, that would be terrible!

6 hours ago, Mandalorianknight said:

I think they're the same price as battle packs, unfortunately.

:cry_sad: That is unfortunate.

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3 hours ago, Bobbtom said:

I think it's important to note that the iconic OT vehicles that are constantly re-released are a substantial number of vehicles and sets at various price points whereas the repeating PT sets while frequent are seemingly a small handful in comparison. This is especially glaring when you take into account unique OT sets like the carbonite chamber, hoth medical room, kenobi's hut etc. It's also important to keep in mind that it took an entire new TV show and no other major SW media to get a venator, arc-170, and other much requested sets and figures. With TCW season 7 ending over a year ago the chance is over; I just dont see many PT sets coming back (besides the usual anakin's fighter, at-ap, at-rt, and the occasional gunship etc) anytime soon if at all. I would not be surprised at all if we never see captain rex again until he appears as a major character in some media.

The first ARC-170 came out after RotS, so that is a set that's been remade once. :wink:

3 hours ago, Bobbtom said:

That being said, from the point of a fan, lego overall has blown it out of the water as a general product. There are so many excellent high-priced $100+ sets coming out than ever before that just disappear off shelves. I'm willing to bet that the market can handle both a system AT-TE and imperial star destroyer being out at the same time, but  we'll have to see

I agree, I think the issue is the production capacity on LEGO's end. With the 4+ and 18+ sets becoming a regular thing (and seemingly more prevalent for one-off things, as far as 18+ goes), there's less capacity for system-scale sets, especially bigger ones. Thinking about it I wonder if that was part of the justification for moving back to smaller X-wings and TIEs...

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Personally I hope the rumoured character packs aren't for army building. There's already battle packs for that - hopefully more than one on the way. I'd like to see a way of getting figs that aren't factional soldiers, say Prequel Jedi, Cantina aliens, secondary characters. Not trying to wishlist, just hoping for something that isn't battle packs mk 2.

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14 hours ago, Mandalorianknight said:

Then add in that for the past 6 years many of those spots were used on tie ins for new films that then create more vehicles necessitating more large system sets... and we've got quite a problem. It's sort of three-pronged: star wars needs new content to stay relevant, and those new designs require new sets

Which ended up creating the illusion that the OT is more represented due to borrowed elements. The X-Wings, TIEs and Falcons just blur together after a while.

OT isn’t as over represented as it seems like honestly. Prequels still definitely took the hardest hit tho

Edited by necrochasm

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29 minutes ago, MaximillianRebo said:

Personally I hope the rumoured character packs aren't for army building. There's already battle packs for that - hopefully more than one on the way. I'd like to see a way of getting figs that aren't factional soldiers, say Prequel Jedi, Cantina aliens, secondary characters. Not trying to wishlist, just hoping for something that isn't battle packs mk 2.

I imagine they won't be any different from the blister packs for Marvel, DC and Harry Potter. Major characters recycled from existing sets with a unique character or two thrown in. Just for example:

A Mandalorian Pack would feature the same old Mando, Grogu and IG-11 figures but also come with an exclusive Kuiil.
A Cantina Pack would feature the same Han and Greedo figures but also include an exclusive BoShek.
A Bad Batch Pack would feature the same Hunter and Wrecker figures but also include an exclusive Omega.

One downside is that they don't normally create new molds for these packs. Reprints of existing ones sure, but I wouldn't hold out for any Kaminoans showing up.

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3 minutes ago, wesker said:

I imagine they won't be any different from the blister packs for Marvel, DC and Harry Potter. Major characters recycled from existing sets with a unique character or two thrown in.

Exactly. It’d be pretty pointless to bring back the BPs and then immediately undermine them by including troopers in accessory packs as well :laugh:

Based on how these packs usually go, 2 new prints is what can be expected. In other themes, this may translate to two new minifigs (e.g. a new torso print for one minifig and an exclusive face print for the other), but in SW, both prints going to the same minifig is far more likely I think, as torso and face prints can’t be used for other characters that easily :shrug_oh_well:

Or can you think of two desirable new minifigs that only require one new print each?

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10 minutes ago, BrickBob Studpants said:

Exactly. It’d be pretty pointless to bring back the BPs and then immediately undermine them by including troopers in accessory packs as well :laugh:

Based on how these packs usually go, 2 new prints is what can be expected. In other themes, this may translate to two new minifigs (e.g. a new torso print for one minifig and an exclusive face print for the other), but in SW, both prints going to the same minifig is far more likely I think, as torso and face prints can’t be used for other characters that easily :shrug_oh_well:

Or can you think of two desirable new minifigs that only require one new print each?

I think there are a few niche options, medical gown Luke, any Padme that only requires a torso. Etc..

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Are we fully sure yet Luke's lightsaber is a GWP for the AT AT? I have a few UCS sets but that AT AT price range is well out of my comfort zone. If so then I'll probably pay top dollar for the lightsaber through the second hand market.

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11 hours ago, Bobbtom said:

I think it's important to note that the iconic OT vehicles that are constantly re-released are a substantial number of vehicles and sets at various price points whereas the repeating PT sets while frequent are seemingly a small handful in comparison. This is especially glaring when you take into account unique OT sets like the carbonite chamber, hoth medical room, kenobi's hut etc. It's also important to keep in mind that it took an entire new TV show and no other major SW media to get a venator, arc-170, and other much requested sets and figures. With TCW season 7 ending over a year ago the chance is over; I just dont see many PT sets coming back (besides the usual anakin's fighter, at-ap, at-rt, and the occasional gunship etc) anytime soon if at all. I would not be surprised at all if we never see captain rex again until he appears as a major character in some media.

Well, not exactly. First off, if we're talking about the clone wars, it DOMINATED release-wise for years, because, like you said, there was no other media at that point. I don't think the examples you specifically chose are great, as the venator had been around for what, 3-4 years at that point? and the ARC-170 had been released beforehand. And really, especially in recent years we have gotten a fair amount of prequel era sets.

12 minutes ago, Thebrickstandard said:

Are we fully sure yet Luke's lightsaber is a GWP for the AT AT? I have a few UCS sets but that AT AT price range is well out of my comfort zone. If so then I'll probably pay top dollar for the lightsaber through the second hand market.

I'm pretty sure it is, but luckily aside from the plaque and packaging it'll be easy to replicate for cheap.

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Instead of spending pages arguing opinions about this, why don't we argue about the actual numbers?

Z3AiGNX.png

Looking just at regular system sets, BrickLink shows 181 OT, 121 Prequel, 49 Sequel, and 74 TCW. There's a little bit of fuzziness with those numbers, since they include some polybag figures and miscellaneous other stuff that probably shouldn't count for these purposes, but they're good enough to save the work of going through every set manually. LEGO has been releasing SW sets for 22 years, but only the OT and TPM have been out that long; the average Prequel movie has been getting sets for 19 years, the average ST movie for 4 years, and TCW for 13 years. That works out to 8.2 sets/year for the OT, 6.4 sets/year for the Prequels, 12.3 sets/year for the Sequels, and 5.7 sets/year for TCW.

So from the raw numbers, it looks like the OT gets more coverage than the PT but not by that much, while the ST is seriously overrepresented and TCW gets the shaft. But of course that's not the whole story, since set distributions don't remain even approximately stable over time. Movies are always (obviously) disproportionately covered when they come out and then get far fewer sets in later years--for example, more than half (25/49) of all TPM sets ever are from the first three years after the movie premiered. Furthermore, the total number of sets released has increased significantly over time, from a low of 12 sets in 2001 to a high of 67 in 2018, meaning that movies that got their premier bumps earlier got fewer total sets than newer ones. As a result, the better metric is the average fraction of total sets allocated to each era during the years that that era has been out. For that, we get: OT 44%, PT 30%, ST 35%, TCW 25%. (Those numbers don't sum to 100% because TCW and the ST aren't averaged over the whole time period--if we included the 0s for the years before those eras premiered, it would add up, but that wouldn't be very useful data).

That shows the OT consistently overrepresented, the ST doing a bit better than the PT, and TCW getting the shaft again. Now, the ST is still higher because it hasn't had the 'tail' yet; most of the years we're counting here are still the premier bump period, so we should expect that to even out over time as the rate of new ST sets in the next couple of years will be much lower than it was while the movies were coming out. To clarify that a bit, we should break the graph out into sections: the period from 1999-2007 when it was just OT and PT, the period from 2008-2014 when TCW was introduced, and the period from 2015-present when the ST was introduced. Conveniently, that separates the total period almost exactly into thirds.

1999-2007: OT 55%, PT 45%. More OT than PT sets, but pretty even split. Probably works out to even if you control for the fact that not all the PT movies were out the whole time, but I'm not going to try to.
2008-2014: OT 32%, PT 24%, TCW 43%. As remarked in this argument already, TCW dominated the era when there wasn't any other new content coming out. But the big news is:
2015-2021: OT 42%, PT 18%, ST 35%, TCW 6%. This is the major takeaway from this graph, in my opinion. The influx of ST sets almost entirely replaced PT and TCW sets, while the rate of OT sets remained roughly constant. That, in my opinion at least, definitely is grossly disproportionate enough to justify people getting up in arms about it. PT and TCW combined don't even make up 25% of sets for the last seven years. That may not hurt too much for people who've been collecting for decades, but for anybody who likes those eras who's just getting into LEGO or coming back after a long break, it's a pretty rough spread.

Of course, this doesn't take into account the fact that TCW and PT sets can often double for each other, or that there's a fair bit of overlap between OT and ST sets as well (yes, yes, they're different, but one X-wing or Falcon is much like another for many purposes). That's a matter of personal opinion for whether you'd want to count some sets as both PT and TCW or whatever, so you can shift these numbers around a bit if you like to compensate for that. But the point is that, even combined, the PT and TCW definitely are seriously underrepresented compared to other eras. And that's without even touching the PT UCS question.

 

 

Edited by Kdapt-Preacher

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Thanks for the data analysis. That is a really good write-up. This is actually worse for the PT and TCW then I thought. Considering 2022's wave so far, it looks bleak.

I mentioned the ventaor and arc-170 specifically in the context of their general appearance, irregardless of whether it was a remake or an initial appearance. The point was that it took an entire movie series and a major show to be the main SW media at the time to have either of those sets in production. Now that TCW is over for over a year and BB only going further into the imperial era the chances of those PT/TCW sets appearing are slimming every day

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2 minutes ago, Bobbtom said:

Thanks for the data analysis. That is a really good write-up. This is actually worse for the PT and TCW then I thought. Considering 2022's wave so far, it looks bleak.

I mentioned the ventaor and arc-170 specifically in the context of their general appearance, irregardless of whether it was a remake or an initial appearance. The point was that it took an entire movie series and a major show to be the main SW media at the time to have either of those sets in production. Now that TCW is over for over a year and BB only going further into the imperial era the chances of those PT/TCW sets appearing are slimming every day

I’m actually feeling somewhat optimistic about the future of Clone Wars sets. The two sets they came out with last summer were really popular at the start and both of the sets they came out with this summer seem to be doing really well (more so the Mandalorian Fighter but still.) There’s an entire wellspring of set potential in that show/era and I think Lego recognizes that by now. I think hoping for an entire wave full of Clone Wars sets is pretty unrealistic nowadays but I could see them continue doing a few desirable Clone Wars sets each year. 
 

The only thing potentially getting in the way of this is the several other shows we have coming out on Disney+ in the next few years. It depends if Lego follows the same approach as Mando and Bad Batch where they only do one set at first.

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On 9/17/2021 at 3:36 PM, Archer said:

As was mentioned above, even if he isn’t doing it as a secret message of which sets are coming, it is simply beneficial to have new videos of the older versions of upcoming sets to get views from people looking to see what lego did before on those subjects. He know how to use the YouTube algorithm to make that cheddar. 

True.

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