Where do you see LEGO in 30-40 years?

[HappyAFOL]

I had an interesting tought earlier which I think can make for interesting discussion: LEGO in the far future.

Looking back at 60's to late 70s LEGO, it was very different from our current-day models. I'm sure everyone can point the obvious main differences so I'll just recap shortly: 

1. The color pallet has grown significantly

2. Minifigures (and also the level of detail on minifigures in comparsion to the earlier ones)

3. Specialized elements of shapes that cannot be created within scale using basic bricks.

4. More emphasis of designin elements that are "in system", meaning the geometry, color and friction match between all elements.

So, with all that in mind, I asked myself "what's next". Will LEGO simply continue to make more of the same? (more licenses, more specialized molds, more unique prints) or will there be a major evolutional step for them? I came up with some neat upgrades I think the LEGO system can benefit from in the long term:

1. Fully articulatable figures, meaning they can move their limbs by more than just 360 degree spin, akin to how they move in the movies and animated stuff (Ninjago for example).

2. Use of multi-material bricks. As of now, 99.9% of the pieces are made with the same type of plastic, and by type I do not mean chemically (because they probably adjust their formulas all the time), but stylistically. The plastic is made to look shiny and reflective, so a 2x2 brick is always a 2x2 brick with the same plastic "style", regardless of color. But what if, for example, they would make a "rougher" tan/dark tan plastic for things like sand, or walls? what if plants and leaves were far more elastic and intentionally bendable to make more complex shapes? The same pieces could come with different types of plastics (Jeez, that will be a nightmare for Bricklink sellers!)

3. Something transparent to represent deeper water (large bodies of water like seas or lakes). Today, we represent seas, rivers and lakes with the use of either blue/azure plates, or trans-light-blue tiles over blue/green plates to have some kind of depth (example: Ninjago city). But what if they came up with a system that would allow for creating actual depth? I have no idea how they can do this one, sorry, but hey, they have 40 years to figure that out, haha.

* I want to note that the ideas above are not necessarily ones I wish for, as I'm fine with minifigs staying just the way they are for example, but I can still see LEGO go in that direction eventually.

That's what I got from now, but I believe the many people here can offer many more ideas. Now I'm curious to hear you all!

 

Edited March 4, 2021 by HappyAFOL

[Stuartn]

35 minutes ago, HappyAFOL said:

. Fully articulatable figures, meaning they can move their limbs by more than just 360 degree spin, akin to how they move in the movies and animated stuff (Ninjago for example).

I think that would be good, but it could also detract from being Lego-y. Minifigures are unique and instantly recognisable, and I think any changes, even if they are improvements, other than leg height variations, could tarnish the brand.

There are some things they should do though, such as a battle droid arm that is angled so the blaster could be held differently, and maybe a minifgure arm that does the same.

37 minutes ago, HappyAFOL said:

what if plants and leaves were far more elastic and intentionally bendable to make more complex shapes?

They actually are, sort of. Plant elements are being made now from plant-based plastics, rather than ABS. They still do have the same properties as regular ABS.

But I see your point, even some more creative moulding on regular parts could be used to make that effect.

 

[Alexandrina]

I think it's safe to say that anybody asked in 1981 what they thought the Lego of forty years' time would be like would probably get it all wrong. Forty years ago was actually just after a pretty big sea change - the Space and Castle themes (and indeed the Lego Minifigure) were about three years old by that point. I suspect people at the time might have guessed a few things correctly - pointing perhaps at different faces on the minifigures' heads, a wider variety of themes, a slightly expanded colour palette (green, dark grey and brown bricks would probably have been seen as an inevitability, and orange, pink and purple as 'standard' colours would have factored into some guesses no doubt). On the whole though they'd have been way off.

All this to say that our guesses are likely to be wildly innacurate! I'd love it if these forums are still up in 2061 and someone can dig out a link to this old topic for us all to have a good laugh.

Anyway, I can see Lego's evolution focusing on the minifigure. We've now got about five different types of leg. In forty years we'll probably have body types too. I can imagine Lego trialling a switch to a slimmer torso piece instead of the waist curvature printing on lots of female minifigures - probably for some license or other to begin with, and eventually fading into other themes as it stops being a controversial new part and becomes a member of the Lego stable.

As for licenses, it wouldn't surprise me if some more mature licenses get picked up. Stuff like Game of Thrones (emphasis on like, because I don't know what'll be relevant in forty years' time but it won't be Game of Thrones). It won't be soon, but Lego are already getting more mature with their licenses over time. Twenty years ago, Lord of the Rings was too mature. Ten years ago it was a theme. With Stranger Things - admittedly a single set - they're now in the territory of licenses with swearing and violence, even if these aren't represented in the sets they make. Especially now that they've started an 18+ brand, I can see them slowly pushing the boat out year on year with the licenses they pick, until they think nothing of the sort of adult fantasy that is off limits right now. They'll probably still be pumping out an X-Wing and a TIE Fighter every two years, even when Star Wars Episode 24 comes out and they've got ample films to make sets from.

Depending on how technology develops, I can imagine Lego offering bespoke production of desirable classic sets. It probably won't be their full range, but I can imagine Lego making a predetermined range of 'classic' sets - stuff like the Black Seas Barracuda, Galaxy Explorer, Fort Legoredo, Old Fishing Store, classics as yet unreleased - available made to order. These might raise a premium, or there might be an understanding that Lego will produce the sets when they hit a threshold of active orders, so the more niche a set the longer you'll be waiting for it.

I'd expect baseplates to return in a big way one day, too. I don't know why they were phased out, but I presume it has something to do with costs. If those costs come down, a good baseplate would be a good way to add perceived value to sets. Look at, for instance, set 6411 Sand Dollar Café compared to set 41363 Mia's Forest Adventure. Pretty much the same number of parts, but the former looks much more impressive in a photo, because of the baseplate. As more and more shopping is done online, how good a set looks on its photos is going to play a big role, and it wouldn't surprise me if by the 2060s every Lego set over about 120 pieces includes a baseplate.

[legotownlinz]

2 hours ago, Stuartn said:

They actually are, sort of. Plant elements are being made now from plant-based plastics, rather than ABS. They still do have the same properties as regular ABS.

Plants are not made from ABS. There is no replacement for ABS yet.

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

While Lego keeps adding variations on minifigs and tweaking a few things here and there, I doubt we'll see them change the standard minifigure that much. At this point, the minifigure is very representative of the Lego brand, so I don't think they'll change their pieces significantly.

Now, I'll say what I think the future of minifigures might hold, as someone with zero insider info and nothing but fan knowledge. I can imagine more head molds and accessories, some new colors, perhaps an increase in transparent pieces, and potentially increasing levels of print. For instance, right now prints don't reach near the toes, but that might change. Moreover, the current trend seems to move towards Lego representing everything in pop culture, so I'd expect the amount of specialized prints and molds for specific characters to keep increasing.

Edited March 5, 2021 by BrickHat

[deraven]

4 hours ago, HappyAFOL said:

1. Fully articulatable figures, meaning they can move their limbs by more than just 360 degree spin, akin to how they move in the movies and animated stuff (Ninjago for example).

I'm not sure about how much further they can go with the level of detail on minifigs before they stop feeling like Lego, but definitely a little more room to go there (like enhanced printing on the full figure and around the sides, etc., or enhanced dual+ molding).  The additional articulation would be interesting to me if it came from new materials and not just trying to add joints or other changes that would detract from the classic minifig look.  That is, if the arms and legs (and maybe torso itself) were made of a material that looks and functions the same as it does now, but has some elasticity and memory that would let you do some of the types of gentle bending and posing you see in the newer Lego animation style.  Maybe some kind of memory plastic that could easily be returned to the standard shape/position.

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

17 minutes ago, deraven said:

I'm not sure about how much further they can go with the level of detail on minifigs before they stop feeling like Lego

This is a very important consideration. I have seen some customs with such a high level of detail that it stops feeling like Lego, especially when it's because of excessive textures and custom molds. They start feeling like figures that just happen to resemble a minifig.

[AmperZand]

3D printing will be such that LEGO’s business model will have changed. You will have a choice of buying the set as you do now or downloading the design and a licence to produce one copy for personal use, much like some PDF books now. You can then produce the set at home or get a specialist firm to do it for you (again, like some PDF books now). In addition to production companies, there will be a whole ecosystem of custom designers from whom you’ll be able to get compatible parts and colours LEGO doesn’t produce.

With people living longer and having more free time, there will probably be ranges aimed at ‘seniors’. Never mind ‘18+’, there will likely be ‘65+’ sets though I doubt they’ll be so crudely branded.

Culturally and thematically, the look and feel of LEGO sets will have shifted from Europe/North America-centric to a more balanced Europe/NA/China/India orientation.

@Alexandrina, You’re correct that in 1981, FOLs failed to predict what the hobby would be like in 2021 - at least, I did. I never imagined back then that there would be SW, DC or Marvel lines, or film tie-ins for any franchise.

If FOLs 40 years hence wish to laugh at my predictions from 2021, they can do in the near certainty that I won’t care because I’ll be dead by then! 

Edited March 5, 2021 by AmperZand

[Kit Figsto]

I think dual-molding will probably become more common as they can figure out a way to do it and keep costs down.  It could maybe expand into bricks, too, so you could have a 1x6 that alternates color every stud or something, since it's more stable than stacking 1x1s on top of each other.

[MAB]

For physical toys, if they are going to change minifigs,  then I'd expect a major change more towards realistic body shapes and articulation. So micro action figures or more articulated minidolls.

For non physical toys, maybe holographic building sets, perhaps built using a device (whatever replaces PCs and tablets) then displayed using the holographic projector that every home watches 3D movies on.

[Mylenium]

12 hours ago, AmperZand said:

3D printing will be such that LEGO’s business model will have changed. You will have a choice of buying the set as you do now or downloading the design and a licence to produce one copy for personal use, much like some PDF books now. You can then produce the set at home or get a specialist firm to do it for you (again, like some PDF books now). In addition to production companies, there will be a whole ecosystem of custom designers from whom you’ll be able to get compatible parts and colours LEGO doesn’t produce.

Extremely unlikely. 3D printing has pretty much peaked already. Unless there is a new revolutionary technology on the horizon that will simplify this on every level, printing your bricks will never be an option except for a few specialized parts. There would not even be an advantage for the regular use - you'd need different filaments or resins for every color and it would have to meet certain quality standards, the printing costs time and energy, you have to put up with cleaning procedures and removing support structures and so on. On top of it you might need a printer and materials for stickers or printing on elements directly. It would just not be competitive and any factory-produced set would be considerably cheaper. And "custom designs" are already possible today, but don't count as genuine LEGO. At least that part is never going to change. In order to control their designs and trademarks, LEGO will always want to have their own manufacturing.

Mylenium

18 hours ago, HappyAFOL said:

2. Use of multi-material bricks. As of now, 99.9% of the pieces are made with the same type of plastic, and by type I do not mean chemically (because they probably adjust their formulas all the time), but stylistically. The plastic is made to look shiny and reflective, so a 2x2 brick is always a 2x2 brick with the same plastic "style", regardless of color. But what if, for example, they would make a "rougher" tan/dark tan plastic for things like sand, or walls? what if plants and leaves were far more elastic and intentionally bendable to make more complex shapes? The same pieces could come with different types of plastics (Jeez, that will be a nightmare for Bricklink sellers!)

Unlikely. In a big industrial standardized production system like LEGO's there would simply be no room for that and as much as some things might be desirable, it would complicate the manufacturing process exponentially. And then there's of course that thing with quality standards and durability. LEGO has enough problems with that as it is and they're not going to make their life more complicated than necessary. They will introduce new materials and so on, but they'll be careful and never go all out on it. It's e.g. already very predictable that their current pearlescent coatings will be troublesome down the road when they age and degrade and as a company of a certain type you will be very considerate about when to use such stuff.

18 hours ago, HappyAFOL said:

3. Something transparent to represent deeper water (large bodies of water like seas or lakes). Today, we represent seas, rivers and lakes with the use of either blue/azure plates, or trans-light-blue tiles over blue/green plates to have some kind of depth (example: Ninjago city). But what if they came up with a system that would allow for creating actual depth? I have no idea how they can do this one, sorry, but hey, they have 40 years to figure that out, haha.

Again, unlikely. The pigmentation of the bricks would have to be so low, you couldn't distinguisch their shades in plain daylight. They'd all basically look just transparent white with the colors only showing up once you stack them. That's one of those things I know from doing 3D graphics of glassy stuff. Even minor colorations (under 3 percent) can massively accumulate and then your objects become a solid colored blob eventually. And of course you'd have to find a material that minimizes the reflections and refractions that much. That would likely then have to be some special plastic with nano-prisms and it would be so expensive to produce, it wouldn't be worth it.

Mylenium

[Lira_Bricks]

8 hours ago, MAB said:

For physical toys, if they are going to change minifigs,  then I'd expect a major change more towards realistic body shapes and articulation. So micro action figures or more articulated minidolls.

They had that chance with Friends, and they have less articulation than the normal minifigs. Any time they make something that somewhat looks realistic it does not sell well. Like Galidor, Jack Stone, etc.

To be honest, I do not like that they are making the minifigs more realistic with their printing. As an example the women get those extreme hips with the black sides on their torsos. I was surprised that the new Winny the Pooh did not have an enormous belly attached to its head to go over the torso.

For action figures, see the discussion about CCBS recently...

[AmperZand]

1 hour ago, Mylenium said:

Extremely unlikely. 3D printing has pretty much peaked already. Unless there is a new revolutionary technology on the horizon...

If you had told me in 1981 that in 2021 most adults in the advanced industrialised world would be walking around with a telephone the size of a calculator on which they could make video calls, take a near infinite number of high quality pictures, listen to music, watch films/TV programmes, access information from all over the world, and shop for things that would be delivered the same day or next, I would have laughed with incredulity. A lot can happen in tech in 40 years. I would not be so fast to assume that 3D printing won't improve in 40 years to the point where LEGO or LEGO-like parts can't be produced on demand at home or by small businesses. People have a taste for 3D printing. I don't see that going away or with people being satisfied with the status quo.

[dr_spock]

In 40 years, 3D printing could be as simple as printing with a laser or inkjet printer today for the average consumer.   It won't take black magic skills and ample foul language to get it working like today.

[MAB]

1 hour ago, Lira_Bricks said:

They had that chance with Friends, and they have less articulation than the normal minifigs. Any time they make something that somewhat looks realistic it does not sell well. Like Galidor, Jack Stone, etc.

To be honest, I do not like that they are making the minifigs more realistic with their printing. As an example the women get those extreme hips with the black sides on their torsos. I was surprised that the new Winny the Pooh did not have an enormous belly attached to its head to go over the torso.

That doesn't mean they cannot change things long in to the future. They changed figures dramatically from the homemaker style ones I knew as a kid.

It may be in 40 years time that people won't put up with inaccurate versions of the movie figures that LEGO makes for the licensed sets that they produce then, after giving up with in-house themes. They may want them different sizes to match their true representations. They may want them to be proper but miniature action figures. Just because they chose not to go with full articulated Friends figures in their kids' sets of today does not mean LEGO won't do that in 40 years time when it is not producing toys any more, just collector models for adults.

 

[Mylenium]

1 hour ago, AmperZand said:

I would not be so fast to assume that 3D printing won't improve in 40 years to the point where LEGO or LEGO-like parts can't be produced on demand at home or by small businesses. People have a taste for 3D printing. I don't see that going away or with people being satisfied with the status quo.

Fair enough, but I still disagree. The "advent of 3D printing" has been declared too many times, first way back in the 1990s when a laser-cured resin prototype piece cost 20000 bucks and took more than 24 hours to produce. This has bin flip-flopping back and forth way too much to have any credibility left in my world. Even in the last "big" wave 3D printing companies were dying left and right and the much touted proliferation in industrial circles just is happening at snail's pace in very select scenarios only, most of which are actually metal and ceramics related, not plastic/ resin. Don't get me wrong - 3D printing as such is a technology that's here to stay for many other uses, but I just don't see anyone even produce a full set of bricks for a small model when you can squeeze out millions of bricks with conventional injection molding for a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time.

Mylenium

Edited March 5, 2021 by Mylenium

[Lego David]

I'd imagine at that point they would have finally figured out how to combine physical and digital play in a way that is successful. They've experimented with this kind of technology quite a lot over the past five years (with underwhelming results), and I'd imagine they will continue to do so until they finally strike success. There is no way to say at this point what form this successful combination of physical and digital play will take, but in 40 years from now I am fairly confident it will become a staple of the LEGO brand, as kids' interests continue to move away from physical toys more and more. 

[Alexandrina]

13 minutes ago, Lego David said:

as kids' interests continue to move away from physical toys more and more. 

That can't possibly continue more and more indefinitely. There comes a point where kids are saturated by digital exposure and need some physical play. I would also query whether a predominantly digital experience would truly be Lego, but that might just be me. 

[Lyichir]

No offense, but trying to think 30-40 years ahead is downright terrifying to me. Not to get political, but we're currently in the midst of a global pandemic and looking at an oncoming climate catastrophe, all while authoritarianism has a resurgence in many areas of the world. In the midst of all that I can barely manage to plan for this year or even the next few months, let alone that far in the future.

I dunno. On the off-chance that I'm still alive in 30-40 years, I certainly hope Lego will still be around for me to enjoy, at least. But frankly I don't think I can project anything that far ahead with confidence anymore, not when so much of what I took for granted as a kid has been so wildly destabilized over the past few years.

[Stuartn]

21 hours ago, legotownlinz said:

Plants are not made from ABS. There is no replacement for ABS yet.

Yes, Lego plants are made from polyethylene, obtained from sugarcane. About twenty-five new elements (2% of their pieces) are made from this material.

https://www.wired.com/story/lego-sustainable-bricks/

They were introduced in the wind turbine set, which advertises this on the packaging.

[Greshi210]

12 hours ago, Lego David said:

I'd imagine at that point they would have finally figured out how to combine physical and digital play in a way that is successful. They've experimented with this kind of technology quite a lot over the past five years (with underwhelming results), and I'd imagine they will continue to do so until they finally strike success. There is no way to say at this point what form this successful combination of physical and digital play will take, but in 40 years from now I am fairly confident it will become a staple of the LEGO brand, as kids' interests continue to move away from physical toys more and more. 

What I would find cool and also think might happen is that Lego will have moved into AR by let's say 2040, so that you can incorporate your real-life builds into an AR-environment. I imagine it to be like in the old Lego catalogues that were around when I was a child and I wondered how it was possible to build these huge background landscapes for the actual sets they were selling. So you could have a huge virtual city background and drive through it with a real Lego car for example.

Of course that would only work well with AR headsets, so no mobile phones would have to be used, which frankly is stupid if you have a physical toy that you need your hands for to play with. So AR would really make a combination of Lego and digital products possible and potentially even enjoyable.

[MAB]

9 hours ago, Stuartn said:

Yes, Lego plants are made from polyethylene, obtained from sugarcane. About twenty-five new elements (2% of their pieces) are made from this material.

https://www.wired.com/story/lego-sustainable-bricks/

They were introduced in the wind turbine set, which advertises this on the packaging.

Strictly speaking most of those weren't new parts or made from a new material. All that changed is the source of the material,  from derived from oil products to derived from plant products. There is no difference in the material,  just where the components that made the material come from.

[Lego David]

13 hours ago, Alexandrina said:

That can't possibly continue more and more indefinitely. There comes a point where kids are saturated by digital exposure and need some physical play. I would also query whether a predominantly digital experience would truly be Lego, but that might just be me. 

I wholeheartedly agree, but sadly, The LEGO Group seems to believe otherwise. Back in the early 2000's, during their worst financial period, they blamed video games for their poor sales, despite the real reasons behind their low profits being more internal (poor management, experimental products, too high production costs, etc). After their profits stabilized, they left behind all those experiments, and did what they do best, focusing on the physical products... until now. 

I'd imagine they now blame their recent lack of grouth in North America on video games again, and they now try to stay relevant by trying to combine physical and digital play, assuming that kids are gonna jump to their phones as soon as they are finished building the sets. Whether that is true or not its hard to say, but I'd imagine TLG's focus test groups and market research suggests that (otherwise, why would this be such a big concern to them?)

I assume this trend will continue for years to come, until they finally strike success. 

2 hours ago, Greshi210 said:

What I would find cool and also think might happen is that Lego will have moved into AR by let's say 2040, so that you can incorporate your real-life builds into an AR-environment. I imagine it to be like in the old Lego catalogues that were around when I was a child and I wondered how it was possible to build these huge background landscapes for the actual sets they were selling. So you could have a huge virtual city background and drive through it with a real Lego car for example.

Of course that would only work well with AR headsets, so no mobile phones would have to be used, which frankly is stupid if you have a physical toy that you need your hands for to play with. So AR would really make a combination of Lego and digital products possible and potentially even enjoyable.

Fair enough, I wouldn't be surprised if they actually tried this sort of technology in years to come. It doesn't sound very complicated, and it could be something we could very well see in the next 5-10 years.

[MAB]

11 hours ago, Lego David said:

I wholeheartedly agree, but sadly, The LEGO Group seems to believe otherwise.

I don't think they believe otherwise. LEGO still manufactures and sells physical brick based building sets.

Edited March 6, 2021 by MAB

[BenderBrau]

Assuming the world doesn't go to hell and the situation is stable enough for a toy manufacturer to keep operating:

Better incorporation of electronics, for example actually useful light bricks that give a bit stronger light and can be turned on and off. Or maybe motors small enough to fit in a standard City car - rechargeable of course, not requiring six batteries.

An application that works like software used by proffesional builders to build large scale models. Right now it's useful only for building with standrd bricks and plates, but maybe in the future it will be able to use all available pieces. It would work like this - upload a photo or 3D scan of an object and the app will "MOC" it for you, give a list of required pieces and generate instructions.

15 hours ago, Greshi210 said:

What I would find cool and also think might happen is that Lego will have moved into AR by let's say 2040, so that you can incorporate your real-life builds into an AR-environment. I imagine it to be like in the old Lego catalogues that were around when I was a child and I wondered how it was possible to build these huge background landscapes for the actual sets they were selling. So you could have a huge virtual city background and drive through it with a real Lego car for example.

Of course that would only work well with AR headsets, so no mobile phones would have to be used, which frankly is stupid if you have a physical toy that you need your hands for to play with. So AR would really make a combination of Lego and digital products possible and potentially even enjoyable.

That's a fantatic idea and I think it's a natural progression of the "experiments" like Vidiyo Lego is conducting right now. If VR headsets become commonplace like smartphones are today, I can definitely see half real, half virtual cities becoming a thing