guestimating lego lambo 42115 worth, 20 years from now?

[nbouchard88]

(moderators can move thread if not in correct section. thanks.)

hi everybody.

I have put together 2 licensed technic sets, the volvo 42030, and the bugatti chiron 42083. Ive been pondering about what these things could have been worth 20 years from now if they were left in box, factory sealed. So im contemplating buying 2 of the latest licensed technic set: lamborghini sian 42115. build one, leave the other in box, factory sealed, and put it away for 20 or so years. 

im very curious about what kind of return investment these could get, since they are licensed products of very high end vehicles that would be collectors cars themselves 20 or 30 years from now. seems to me like a very worthwhile investment. 

what are your opinions? give me your best guess, in USD, or just multiply from the retail price (eg. 10x, or 15x original price). im very, very curious about seeing several viewpoints on this.

 

[BusterHaus]

My best estimate would be 3x to 5x the original price, assuming you can keep it in mint/sealed condition that long, and that the nostalgia factor is there.

By comparison, you can put $400 into the Dow Jones index and most likely have similar returns it in 20 years if you re-invest the dividends.  You can play with their calculator here: https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/

 

[DrJB]

About 15 years ago I bought a Lego Williams F1 (8461). My intention was to build it but I already had the Silver Champion 8458.

I paid $200 + $50 shipping from Germany. Today it's worth about $1000. It's still in its box. So BusterHaus is correct, after 15 years, it increased 4× in value. BusterHaus is also correct about investments i.e., use the stock market ... you do not need storage space and concern that the box gets damaged or the house catches fire. 

You must also keep in mind that in the past, most people would buy lego to play with. This trend of collecting/investing is fairly recent. Which means, many people out there have the same idea as you do, and in 20 years, there will be many of such vehicles available from collectors. Proof? Look at 41999, its original price was $200, it sold for $400 about 7 years ago (they were in high demand), and today, 7 years later, it still hovers around $400. 

This investing/collecting trend might not be as lucrative as it once was ... at least my personal opinion.

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by DrJB

[howitzer]

If you want to invest money for profit, Lego is a very risky business. Beside the aforementioned storage/damage concerns and more investors today than in the past, there's also the risk of TLG deciding to re-release a set - this happened to the Taj Mahal and it's not the only one.

I'd definitely invest my money rather to the stock market.

[XenoRad]

If you do choose to buy and store the Lambo set 42115 I would personally wait until the color issue is further reduced. From what I see even recent sets have this problem.

However, for long term value increase I think the UCS Star Wars or Batman sets would be a better bet.

Edited January 18, 2021 by XenoRad
Update

[chlego]

15 hours ago, DrJB said:

About 15 years ago I bought a Lego Williams F1 (8461).

Sweet! I couldn't even say "Lego" back there... :)

I saw the Porsche, for 300 RRP I guess, but not sure, for Switzerland's best price: 580... I think that the 42115 will be similar, maybe 600, but not more.

[Brickend]

It's already been stated, but so many AFOLs are buying one to build and one to resell so there is more likely to be a glut on the market.

There is also the issue of the reproduction / fake Lego market  - if someone 20 years from now has a bit of nostalgia there's now an avenue open to them that wasn't there previously to get a vaguely similar product for a fraction of the inflated cost.

I'm also amazed as mentioned, that Lego haven't really embraced the retro re-release market like other brands have, especially on unlicensed sets (8880/5571 Big Cat etc.)

[syclone]

I honestly doubt there will be much value in it. Seems that old sets have had a great value rise because:

1. Whoever bought lego, was interested in actually building it, these weren't stricktly shelf models as the recent UCS models have become, but playable ones.

2. There wasn't much market for Lego. Now, I cannot actually speak about it (born in 2001), but judging from early posts on EB and other internet sources, there weren't thousands of people stockpiling hundreds of sets to sell for parts or to just keep them sealed. If you look on "2nd" hand market now, there are sellers with crazy amounts of MISB sets from recent years, so the market is quite saturated already

3. There were a lot less produced than now. Nowadays with online shopping and social media it is incredibly easy to buy / get into lego, and many non-lego fans buy them (since we're talking about the Sian, in this case carguys/gals). 

Additionally, this is not an exclusive set. It is a mass produced one, that will be available for at least 1'5 years from now on. And as mentioned previously, even the exclusive 41999 wasn't such a good inversement and sells for relatively low prices, so I don't expect anything from this neither.

And finally, Sian isn't a specifically unique set, it wasn't first of the series as happened with the Porsche, nor it isn't some sort of commemorative one given out on a specal occasion like employee sets are. 

 

Probably the SW UCS are a better option, but real company stocks are certainly the way to go, specially considering the crisis happening now.

[2GodBDGlory]

19 hours ago, DrJB said:

Look at 41999, its original price was $200, it sold for $400 about 7 years ago (they were in high demand), and today, 7 years later, it still hovers around $400. 

I wonder if any of that has to do with the fact that the similar 9398 Crawler existed to fill the market for play value

[valenciaeric]

History has shown that the first set from a series (42056 in this case) or unique models with some USP such as short life, limited release or some rare parts or misprints do the best. The Bugatti and Lambo don´t fit in any of these categories and also cost much more than the 911. I´d say it will be worth less than 1000 euros but then again inflation has to be taken into account and we don´t know how many more supercars or indeed Lambos will be made in the future.

42056 is doing OK considering it was heavily discounted and there have been so many other 911 cars made. It had a shorter life than the Bugatti, though and Porsche has more mainstream interest.

[Bartybum]

While you can get great investment returns if you pick the right set (from what I can see large Technic sets will generally appreciate, and licensed ones probably even more so), it’s just straight up not worth it for the amount you need to buy. What’s a profit of 2x for one or two sets over the course of 20 years? Seems not worth the effort imo

I’d throw my money into stonks, crypto or metals.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Bartybum

[nerdsforprez]

On 1/17/2021 at 5:55 PM, nbouchard88 said:

(moderators can move thread if not in correct section. thanks.)

hi everybody.

I have put together 2 licensed technic sets, the volvo 42030, and the bugatti chiron 42083. Ive been pondering about what these things could have been worth 20 years from now if they were left in box, factory sealed. So im contemplating buying 2 of the latest licensed technic set: lamborghini sian 42115. build one, leave the other in box, factory sealed, and put it away for 20 or so years. 

im very curious about what kind of return investment these could get, since they are licensed products of very high end vehicles that would be collectors cars themselves 20 or 30 years from now. seems to me like a very worthwhile investment. 

what are your opinions? give me your best guess, in USD, or just multiply from the retail price (eg. 10x, or 15x original price). im very, very curious about seeing several viewpoints on this.

 

Investing in Lego for actual money is a fool's errand.  If you do it just to get your kicks out of monitoring the ebbing and flowing of a sets value then go ahead, that certainly can be fun, but if doing for $$ stop and place your hard earned money elsewhere. 

I have done it for years and I enjoy it b/c I like to see the ebbing and flowing of set values.  But it is not a lucrative venture.  And that is coming from someone who has had and sold the old Millennium Falcon, Cafe Corner, and old Statue of Liberty and sold each for thousands (along with many others).  But like I said, not lucrative... for each that has yielded good returns there are many that have flunked.  And despite what you might thing, they are not predictable.  

Lastly, don't forget these important points. 

- The value of a set does not mean, at all, that you can or will sell for that amount. Stocks, which unless you are buying some really esoteric stuff, you can buy or sell at the  an amount that is posted and updated to the second.  A Lego set might be valued at **** dollars, but you might only get a fraction of that.  Or.... if you do sell at the going value, it may take months and months to find a seller, not to mention a lot of work and effort on your part.   I do not know how things are in Canada, but I have much better success selling in Europe than even here in the US.  Which means sometimes I have had to wait 8-12 months to find a buyer at a price I am willing to part with my set.  

- Fees, fees fees.  I am not, and was not creative nor did i look around for better apps or sites to sell on. I used BL.  But BL charges huge fees.  Same with Paypal.  They quickly eat up any possible profit. 

- Shipping costs are only going up up and up.  I do not see this balancing anytime soon, especially with globalization of the shipping industry.  GL trying to predict shipping costs in 15 years.  I certainly would not want to.  

- So many other headaches.  Storage, insurance on your item (if not insuring the item outright, you sure will when you ship, which is a cost you likely will bear).  

- Not to mention you cannot necessarily control the way Lego boxes will mature.  I always stored my sets inside, climate controlled rooms in my home.  They mostly aged fine, but after 10 years even in the best of conditions tape can come undone, edges wear, and colors can fade.  This can decrease the sets value or at least turn away buyers.  Most are fairly sophisticated now, and if they are spending several hundred to over a thousand on a set they will want to see updated pics.  If those pics are not pristine, you will lose buyers.  

hope this helps....again all this comes from someone who started in the mid 2000's.  I had 41999 and many others.  Stopped about five years ago.  It was fun at first, but NOT lucrative.  Stopped b/c became too big a headache.  

 

TB  

On 1/17/2021 at 8:00 PM, DrJB said:

. This trend of collecting/investing is fairly recent.

I would definitely say this is not the case.  I mean, depends on your definition of recent, but with Cafe Corner, MF, and old Death Star yielding huge returns I think folks began to take notice a long time ago.  Like about a decade ago.  Brickpicker.com, a site dedicated exclusively to investing in Lego, began many years ago.  I don't know exactly how long ago but I know it is over eight.  So, by my definition, I would not consider 8-10 years ago, in terms of when folks began to take notice of the investing opportunities of Lego, as "fairly recent."  

On 1/17/2021 at 8:00 PM, DrJB said:

Proof? Look at 41999, its original price was $200, it sold for $400 about 7 years ago (they were in high demand), and today, 7 years later, it still hovers around $400. 

 

I do not believe this is a good example to go off  of.  This was a limited edition set where a limited amount of sets were produced, not to mention essentially a remake of another set with simply s different shell.  Something that has never been replicated in the Technic line, and may never be.  

But, even though I don't agree with the example, we arrive at the same conclusions.  Investing and collecting Lego is not as lucrative as it once was, if it ever truly was in the first place.