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FABUpunk! Mafia II–Day Two, This Is Insanity

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3 hours ago, Rutherford Raccoon said:

A crimson colors my cheeks and Scarlet stains my heart, as I, an ignominious idiot, strike my head against the railing for having missed Francesca's post. :wall:

Did you have something to say about my post or just this weird cliffhanger? 

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it's like a freakin Mexican standoff in here, it's getting my anxiety up. I don't like that I was unable to investigate Marlowe, I don't like that he really pushed against the grain yesterday, like he wanted to avoid the wagons on both Mobley and Gilford, I don't like that he wanted me to spill the beans on my role last night, I don't like how his most substantive answers of the day have been "idk lol gut feeling ya feel me". Certainly keeping an eye on the hippo but think the monkey is in the driving seat so Vote: Marlowe Monkey

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Vote: Extend the Day

Sorry for not being around much lately, I will try to do better from now on.

Going back to Gilford, the simplest explanation of what happened last night is that I saved him from being killed by Scum. I know I didn't lie about my role, and I didn't blab about it to anyone, so he's off the suspect list as far as I'm concerned.

23 minutes ago, Holbrook Horse said:

it's like a freakin Mexican standoff in here, it's getting my anxiety up. I don't like that I was unable to investigate Marlowe, I don't like that he really pushed against the grain yesterday, like he wanted to avoid the wagons on both Mobley and Gilford, I don't like that he wanted me to spill the beans on my role last night, I don't like how his most substantive answers of the day have been "idk lol gut feeling ya feel me". Certainly keeping an eye on the hippo but think the monkey is in the driving seat so Vote: Marlowe Monkey 

Well not being able to investigate Marlowe is not Marlowe's fault, you're making it sound like it's part of the reason why you're voting for him. And he did vote for the hippo you're keeping an eye on.

On the other hand, scum poke-voting scum would be a reasonable Day 1 strategy.

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40 minutes ago, Franczeska Fox said:

Did you have something to say about my post or just this weird cliffhanger? 

T'was me confessing that I literally did not see your claim. A gross and embarrassing error. Three sources claiming Guilford as emancipator suggest either emancipator or a level of baby dragon hate that is unlikely.

 

* Vig, not emancipator. And technically only two sources multiplied by Parvani

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So what do we have so far?

Corrina's night action (dwagon lullaby) was corroborated by Benicia

Shainen's night action (mirror) was corroborated by Marlowe

Anyone else?

The way I see this, confirmed actions couldn't be the scum killer last night, unless the other player is lying too.

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On 8/8/2020 at 2:25 AM, Marlowe Monkey said:

Gooooood thinking Bartosz. That makes sense. I coooould see the Normalizer and the falsifier getting the same list oooooof roooooles sooo that there's a higher chance of both of them targeting the same person. And I like the name Forest God. That's a good name. From now on he who lives above us shall be called the Forest God. I think the falsifier should claim. I could see the mirror possibly wanting to claim too. 

Are yoooou sure you weren't dreaming? Hearing noises in dreams usually means you are going through some hard times. 

1 hour ago, Holbrook Horse said:

it's like a freakin Mexican standoff in here, it's getting my anxiety up. I don't like that I was unable to investigate Marlowe, I don't like that he really pushed against the grain yesterday, like he wanted to avoid the wagons on both Mobley and Gilford, I don't like that he wanted me to spill the beans on my role last night, I don't like how his most substantive answers of the day have been "idk lol gut feeling ya feel me". Certainly keeping an eye on the hippo but think the monkey is in the driving seat so Vote: Marlowe Monkey

I wonder reading his posts, if our primate Prince might really be our Trickster? Some of his posts have that "I know something you don't" ring.

1 minute ago, Parvani Poodle said:

So what do we have so far?

Corrina's night action (dwagon lullaby) was corroborated by Benicia

Shainen's night action (mirror) was corroborated by Marlowe

Anyone else?

The way I see this, confirmed actions couldn't be the scum killer last night, unless the other player is lying too.

I can corroborate Shannon as well.

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5 hours ago, Rutherford Raccoon said:

Also loathe as I am to point it out, I should have a 4 vote penalty.

As your soul had left your body (you know, from the spider attack) on Day One, you can't be penalized for something that was beyond your control.

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1 hour ago, Rutherford Raccoon said:

T'was me confessing that I literally did not see your claim. A gross and embarrassing error. Three sources claiming Guilford as emancipator suggest either emancipator or a level of baby dragon hate that is unlikely.

 

* Vig, not emancipator. And technically only two sources multiplied by Parvani

Ahhh, *hic* thannk youu for cllarifying.

 

1 hour ago, Rutherford Raccoon said:

I wonder reading his posts, if our primate Prince might really be our Trickster? Some of his posts have that "I know something you don't" ring.

Hmmm, I see someee *hic* potentialll but a trricksster pushhing for claimss on roless they gave outt jusssst seemsss odd *hic*

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4 hours ago, Holbrook Horse said:

I don't like that he really pushed against the grain yesterday, like he wanted to avoid the wagons on both Mobley and Gilford, 

Is that a bad thing? It's not like I didn't place a vote at all. I voted for Hippo and I gave my reasons for doing so. I didn't go for Mobely or Gilbert because I wasn't convinced they were scummy enough for me to vote for them. I imagine if I had voted for Mobely or Gilbert I would have been accused of jumping on the bandwagon.

4 hours ago, Holbrook Horse said:

I don't like that I was unable to investigate Marlowe

I don't know what you're trying to say other than someone somehow stopped the action from coming through to me. I didn't know you had an investigation result and even if I did I had no way of anticipating that you would target me.

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4 hours ago, Holbrook Horse said:

I don't like how his most substantive answers of the day have been "idk lol gut feeling ya feel me". 

What do you mean "most of my answers"? I gave my reasons for voting for Hippo and my block on Shaenin was genuinely a gut feeling. What would you like me to say?

4 hours ago, Rutherford Raccoon said:

I wonder reading his posts, if our primate Prince might really be our Trickster? Some of his posts have that "I know something you don't" ring.

Nope. I am not the trickster and I know as much as you. Holbrook seems to be under the impression that by speculating about the Slumber Party role I had some kind of inside knowledge and I don't.

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6 hours ago, Rutherford Raccoon said:

I wonder reading his posts, if our primate Prince might really be our Trickster? Some of his posts have that "I know something you don't" ring.

Yeah same.

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With this talk of the Trickster, here is something to consider. I can only come up with two ways for them to hide, either claim a role they didn't assign or the role of someone who died. We don't know what role Caladon had, but I will bet the Trickster is hiding behind it. They could claim they failed and back it up with a reasonable excuse, like saying they targeted someone who ended up being a Mirror. Since they know who they gave the Mirror role to, that person would appear to back up their claim by confirming that they had it. Wouldn't that be convincing?

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59 minutes ago, Gilford Goat said:

Yeah same.

Did you think this? Or are you just jumping on to the first thing you see? You haven't mentioned it before. What were those suspicions you had yesterday that you didn't want to voice?

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33 minutes ago, Marlowe Monkey said:

Did you think this? Or are you just jumping on to the first thing you see? You haven't mentioned it before. What were those suspicions you had yesterday that you didn't want to voice?

Passing thought which I can't recreate. Unless I'm mixing you with someone else? :sceptic: I really should write stuff down more often. However that's a awfully defensive response, especially towards me. *snobbery intensifies* 

Does that make you more or less suspicious? 

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Someone who is confirmed town to whatever extent is likely used to by everyone else to gauge other players. Are some players avoiding them? Who do they (the CT) find suspicious, etc.

If your scum or hiding something (such as being the trickster) then maybe your best play is to undervalue my opinions and suspicions. However I'll be the first to say my suspicions suck. Ha! beat ya to it suckers.

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Greetings everyone! I'm not entirely sure who to vote for. I'm presuming we can come out with our night actions, since other people did yesterday. I am the Baby Dwagon Baf tonight, meaning I can force someone to give a dragon a bath. It's not particularly useful, although I do love the action.

I'm not encouraging other people to claim at this point, though. I'm claiming now so the scum or Trickster can't come out tomorrow or another time and claim that they've got this role. Ouch! I knocked my head. :cry_sad:

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1 hour ago, Gilford Goat said:

Passing thought which I can't recreate. Unless I'm mixing you with someone else? :sceptic: I really should write stuff down more often. However that's a awfully defensive response, especially towards me. *snobbery intensifies* 

Does that make you more or less suspicious? 

Neither really. I am not the trickster. I agree with Corianna's logic that the trickster could've hidden behind whatever role Croc had. I'm not sure if I agree with the latter reasoning though. IF I was the trickster and I pretended to target a player who had the mirror role there's still a good chance I would've been tracked (or consequently if the mirror was watched) I would've been outed. 

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On 8/13/2020 at 8:17 PM, Rutherford Raccoon said:

But perhaps when my p.m. comes I shall remember. Till then I shall read and refresh my memory.

Hang on. I know I'm reaching real far back in the day, but I've got a theory. It's probably wrong, but I just had it.

What if Rutherford is the Trickster? He puts part of his sentence here in neutral gray. Of course he was gone yesterday, but that doesn't mean his actions to hand out weren't randomly assigned by the hand in the sky.

You do see that hand in the sky right? It's not just me?

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8 hours ago, Marlowe Monkey said:

What do you mean "most of my answers"? I gave my reasons for voting for Hippo and my block on Shaenin was genuinely a gut feeling. What would you like me to say?

I could perhaps understaaaaand investigaaaaating someone based on a a gut feeeeeeeeeling, but blocking? I'd expect you to block someone you were suspicious of. If you were afraaaaiiiiid to block an important aaaaaability in the hands of an emancipator, you could haaaave decided to block someone without an important abiiiiiiility, like Benicia who claimed to not use the falsifier role on night one or Mobley who claimed that baby dragon slumber party didn't do anything impooooooortant.

3 hours ago, Hyacinth Hippo said:

Greetings everyone! I'm not entirely sure who to vote for. I'm presuming we can come out with our night actions, since other people did yesterday. I am the Baby Dwagon Baf tonight, meaning I can force someone to give a dragon a bath. It's not particularly useful, although I do love the action.

I'm not encouraging other people to claim at this point, though. I'm claiming now so the scum or Trickster can't come out tomorrow or another time and claim that they've got this role. Ouch! I knocked my head. :cry_sad:

As I saaaaaiiiiid yesterday, I don't think it's a good idea to claaaaaaaiiiim (and I have my doubts about it not being useful, after what Corrina claimed about the baby dragon lullaby). The mooooooore the baby dragon haters know, the better they can plaaaaaaan, especially with 15 roles for 14 animals tonight. You seem desperaaaaaate to get "confirmed".

1 hour ago, Emeric Elephant said:

What if Rutherford is the Trickster? He puts part of his sentence here in neutral gray. Of course he was gone yesterday, but that doesn't mean his actions to hand out weren't randomly assigned by the hand in the sky.

And why exaaaaaaacty would the trickster try to give themselves awaaaaaay this waaaaay? I don't assume their win condition is to get themselves lynched.

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1 hour ago, Emeric Elephant said:

You do see that hand in the sky right? It's not just me?

You having a dream? A giant hand in the sky means you will be given a helping hand by someone in your life. 

I also don't think we should come out and claim just yet. The more the scum are left in the dark the better. Hyacinth still seems to be taking a non committal/sitting on the fence/don't know who to vote for attitude. 

 

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10 hours ago, Marlowe Monkey said:

I don't know what you're trying to say other than someone somehow stopped the action from coming through to me. I didn't know you had an investigation result and even if I did I had no way of anticipating that you would target me.

You could have guessed since I was tight-lipped about it and sent your scumbuddies to turn off all the informational roles.

25 minutes ago, Marlowe Monkey said:

non committal/sitting on the fence/don't know who to vote for attitude.

At this juncture I observe I am the only person to have voted today! Really!

2 hours ago, Emeric Elephant said:

What if Rutherford is the Trickster? He puts part of his sentence here in neutral gray.

I did notice at the time but didn't consider that possibility :look:

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5 hours ago, Marlowe Monkey said:

I'm not sure if I agree with the latter reasoning though. IF I was the trickster and I pretended to target a player who had the mirror role there's still a good chance I would've been tracked (or consequently if the mirror was watched) I would've been outed. 

The problem for the trickster is that no matter what they claim, that is always a risk, but they have to claim something. I would imagine the timing of their claim might help, like if they come along late and seem to conveniently confirm something someone else said.

Trust me, I don't think you're the only option here, nor do I think it has to be someone claiming they failed, I just think that's easier and more likely. There are others who appear as suspicious clouds on my charts. Keep watching the stars!

2 hours ago, Emeric Elephant said:

What if Rutherford is the Trickster? He puts part of his sentence here in neutral gray. Of course he was gone yesterday, but that doesn't mean his actions to hand out weren't randomly assigned by the hand in the sky.

I never noticed the gray thing, but a better reason to suspect him is that he has claimed a role that was unsuccessful, but it's being reported as successful. I refuse to accept that a rolestopper who was mirrored would return a successful result. It's a paradox when applied to that role. Still, that's just unnecessary confusion. The real point is that he could easily be lying about it, assuming Caladon's unknown role (that only the trickster would know) and applying a convenient excuse for it not to show results (using the mirror that only the trickster would know). It's just one more possibility to consider.

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1 hour ago, Leatrix Lamb said:

And why exaaaaaaacty would the trickster try to give themselves awaaaaaay this waaaaay? I don't assume their win condition is to get themselves lynched.

Yeah, I can't see the trickster WANTING to get caught. One has to assume their win condition involves staying alive, at least to a certain point. 

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8 hours ago, Corrina Cow said:

With this talk of the Trickster, here is something to consider. I can only come up with two ways for them to hide, either claim a role they didn't assign or the role of someone who died. We don't know what role Caladon had, but I will bet the Trickster is hiding behind it. They could claim they failed and back it up with a reasonable excuse, like saying they targeted someone who ended up being a Mirror. Since they know who they gave the Mirror role to, that person would appear to back up their claim by confirming that they had it. Wouldn't that be convincing?

Methinks the lady thought herself clever but was too hasty. It is a clever idea and a clever proposition– but executed too quickly and without enough subtlety.

Why does she not mention the two people who claimed to effect a mirror? Myself and Marlow are mentioned five and six above her, not even on a previous page - hardly a difficult effort to look back at.

Nevertheless, an open-ended question is posited- and remember that I mentioned Marlo - he will come in again later.

 

3 hours ago, Emeric Elephant said:

Hang on. I know I'm reaching real far back in the day, but I've got a theory. It's probably wrong, but I just had it.

What if Rutherford is the Trickster? He puts part of his sentence here in neutral gray. Of course he was gone yesterday, but that doesn't mean his actions to hand out weren't randomly assigned by the hand in the sky.

You do see that hand in the sky right? It's not just me?

Ah! The elephant's Graces us with an answer as to who affects the mirror! A solid answer to the open-ended question. Very solid.

Now kindly look at the wording. "Wouldn't that be convincing?" "Hang on. I know I'm reaching real far back in the day, but I've got a theory. It's probably wrong, but I just had it."

The choices are too intentional, the parlance too precise. It reads for all the world like a plan conceived on a baby dragon hater board. Coron post the question but fails to answer the parts she should already know, Emmerich responds with the answer– and ads a great deal of fluff as if he was a sheep not an elephant.

Spoiler

Reaching far back in the day? Really? This is Mafia - the entire point is to read over the previous days. Let alone the current one!

Beyond that, going after Gray is about as fluff as you can get. Maybe you didn't play Heroica, but gray was the default for "I want to say something out of character without breaking character".

 

Now remember what I said about Marlow...

 

50 minutes ago, Corrina Cow said:

The problem for the trickster is that no matter what they claim, that is always a risk, but they have to claim something. I would imagine the timing of their claim might help, like if they come along late and seem to conveniently confirm something someone else said.

Trust me, I don't think you're the only option here, nor do I think it has to be someone claiming they failed, I just think that's easier and more likely. There are others who appear as suspicious clouds on my charts. Keep watching the stars!

I never noticed the gray thing, but a better reason to suspect him is that he has claimed a role that was unsuccessful, but it's being reported as successful. I refuse to accept that a rolestopper who was mirrored would return a successful result. It's a paradox when applied to that role. Still, that's just unnecessary confusion. The real point is that he could easily be lying about it, assuming Caladon's unknown role (that only the trickster would know) and applying a convenient excuse for it not to show results (using the mirror that only the trickster would know). It's just one more possibility to consider.

In Genesis of this post, I thought perhaps Corinne might have actually been Echoing my case on Marlow. Then she posted very shortly after Emmerich, and instead of this or even just between both of us, she specifically targets me. Read her words. "trust me I don't think you're the only option", "there are others who appear as suspicious". As if she pseudo attacks him but subtly reassures him that she doesn't consider him the "Real Enemy". Like you would if you were trying to get someone on your side while maintaining a facade of "respectable suspectivity".

Then she immediately talks about suspecting me without any baffling- as if my "suspectability" was more than Marlow's. She does not commit herself quite as hard as does the elephant - but I feel there's a very deliberate Corinne/Emmerich/ response Corinne in this conversation.

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Alright so first off I am very pleased that the day was extended because Fridays and Saturdays are my busiest days. of Mopping. The ship. Which is my job. 

So, I think we have a lot to work with and the task was intimidating but I've sifted through the night actions and these are my thoughts as a result: 

The most interesting element of this puzzle to me is either the randomly-assigned rolestopper, blocker, and mirror pileup or the bus-driving near death. Both of these interactions are tantalizing clues to the broader picture. 

If Parvini Poodle is to be believed, Gilford Goat was targeted by the scum killer, which would make him the towniest of towns. That said, if he's scum we can immediately assume that Parvini is as well. If he's not scum we still can't make any assumptions about Parvini due to the fact that she may have coordinated with the scum team to target the crocodile as they would all know who the true end-target would be, or didn't care which of the 2 they killed. It would be a gambit to do this though as it would make Gilford an obvious Town, which does not benefit the scum. 

With regards to the Shainen Sheepdog pileup, I'd be curious to hear if the results were consistently reported. Rutherford claims to have gotten a successful result and was informed he was role-stopped, whereas Marblow Monkey claims to have been unsuccessful in blocking. I'm inclined to believe that Marblowes target was truly Shainen's because there are seemingly no unaccounted for blocks... unless we take into account that the scum would know that they switched off the investigative roles but didn't know who they were assigned to... which means any one of the 4 investigative roles could potentially have been the true target of the block... BUT Marblow claimed this blockage before Shainen confirmed himself as the mirror. They would therefor either have to be in cahoots, or Marblowe would have to be telling the truth. We can assume that Rutherford is also telling the truth although it is worth noting that Rutherford's claim came well after the roles were public knowledge. That said, there wouldn't really be much of a reason to lie about that. 

From this I can make a few assumptions: 
Gilford is likely town. If Gilford is scum so is Parvini. 
Marlowe is likely truthful about his target, as there would be no reason to lie about targeting someone else, which means that he and Shainen are not in cahoots. 

Furthermore I would posit a few of these night action decisions as potentially less well intentioned than others:

My short list of suspects is as follows, red indicates a stronger feeling on my part, and yellow indicates a more neutral suspicion: 

Holbrook Horse: Investigating Marlowe seems rather random all things considered.

Emeric Elephant voyeured Mobley: This action crosses streams to an extent with the Fox's indicating a lack of coordination to me but all the same analysis that lead me to suspect the fox applies to you. 

Bixby Bunny claims to have protected Benicia Bear, but there's no evidence to confirm this one way or the other, and, while the truth of the matter would seem well-enough-intentioned, it is unconfirmed. 

Benicia Bear: you knew you'd have to claim eventually and claiming yesterday did put you in a better position with the town. It's not unbelievable that you could have chosen to out yourself under the assumption that outing yourself today would be read as scummy.

Francezka Fox: Yes it could be useful for confirming actions, but if you were a scum you could have lied about the result having known that it was the vig killer targeting Mobely as you would be aware of the scum kill target. You would also know that all major investigative roles were down due to the switch, allowing you to be more certain that he wasn't targetted by multiple other investigative roles, making this claim more likely to be legit. 

I can't imagine we have many people lying about their roles last night, considering a few of them have been confirmed, that said I'd find it unlikely for the scum to not have 2 night actions, and I'm sure that if that's the case the Trickster can get one as well. If I was the trickster I know which ability I'd chose for myself: The Mirror, which leads me to suspect our Sheepdog pal as a likely candidate for that role. 

I haven't really kept up with the banter today so I'm going to go through it now to see if there's anything I'm missing but for the time being I'm also going to place my vote. Vote: Franczeska Fox Your voting record from yesterday also doesn't inspire much trust from me as you were the second on a forming bandwagon and didn't add analysis behind your vote aside from "drunk ramblings" 

Borf. 

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