COVID-19 and will it impact Lego's profits?

[TeriXeri]

1 hour ago, Toastie said:

To get something to drink and eat, right? Things are getting a little tight at least in Germany - availability of LEGO bricks are of very, very little concern the coming weeks.

Best
Thorsten

Exactly how I see it , food and health are 99% , (New) LEGO maybe 1% of my concern right now.

Edited March 18, 2020 by TeriXeri

[KotZ]

34 minutes ago, Lego David said:

How long do you guys think this crisis will last? I've heard reports saying that it may last for the entirety of 2020. If that's the case, than it's going to be a very hard year for LEGO...

2 minutes ago, TeriXeri said:

Exactly how I see it , food and health are 99% , (New) LEGO maybe 1% of my concern right now.

Hopefully in the States we can get panic buying under control within two weeks once people realize you don't need thousands of rolls of toilet paper. And to wash your hands. I've read some places say it could end around August, but I'm hopinh, and thinking it won't last that long. As long as people quarantine responsibly for the next two-four weeks, cases in the US should go back to normal.

As for LEGO, at least we have LDD.

[Toastie]

50 minutes ago, GREG998 said:

This is a "black swan" event, hitting with a maximum violence worldwide economy

That it is, Black Swan Theory type thing. Royally. Big time. This ever-increasing mass hysterical population on this planet will eventually take care of itself. It is beyond any logic, any rational, any thinking. It is the pure fear. And it has propelled itself - as the theory predicts - into mass hysteria.

I know: Every time someone says something like that, either a shitstorm breaks loose or "utter cynicism" is charged.

Just for starters, look up influenza and death/infection rate - for each repeating year, for decades now. And then do count in all that what we do >not< know for the SARS-CoV-2. And then what we do know. And then statistics. And don't be shy. In the influenza season 2017/18, 25000 people died in Germany alone from that disease. Almost 10% of the population was infected. >Nobody< cared - no single event happened. Why? We're used to it. So some die, it seems - at least to me. Yes, they have developed a serum. They do it any single season, as the virus changes all the time.

So there is SARS-CoV-2 now. No serum. Infection rate five times higher than influenza. Death toll most probably the same - do your own research. The Chinese put their analysis on-line.

What is this all about? The fear that the medical systems will collapse. Not that we will get infected. Too many at the same time. The infection ratio will probably reach 50% of a population. You know, it is good to know that 50% of the infected don't even realize that. As they are saying publicly.

I am asking myself: Is it worth to do what "we" do now?

I am very curious what the suicide rate will be in the common months. What the criminal acts rate - particularly when you have guns for free at your disposal - will be. Do we count that in? The stock exchanges - another Black Swan Theory Breed - currently completely freaks out. It seems that every entity in charge freaks out completely. Based on the death toll? Never ever. There more orders of magnitudes more deaths today NOT caused by SARS-CoV-2. But we are used to that.

My take: Get used to it. AND THINK.

Lastly: About that thinking: In Germany, toilet paper is usually gone in the late hours. The fill it up every morning. How much sh*t must be around these days ...

All the best and look forward to getting used to it
Thorsten

     

[Toastie]

41 minutes ago, Lego David said:

If that's the case, than it's going to be a very hard year for LEGO

When - and I sure and desperately hope that we come to grips with that >way earlier< - that is the case, the impact for LEGO does simply not matter at all. When we still freak out that long - and I truly doubt that - than many of us will have other fish to fry than putting little plastic bricks on top of each other - or - when you are a SNOT genius - sideways or even upside down.

But: I think the mass hysteria media will lose interest way earlier - and the mass hysteria addicts we do as well.

Man. The summer will be hot and some tens of million of climate displacement people will be underway next season. We do have real problems. Not just Black Swan stuff.

Best

Thorsten   

[Toastie]

3 minutes ago, GREG998 said:

For 4 years, i new this kind of event had to happen

It happens every single year - just with Influenza A H1/H2/H3 - of which we get every 15 years or so pandemic scales. Yes they are fast - but our responses with serums as well. SARS-CoV-2 is new - we'll need a year or so. Once that is done: Just watch the new forms, make new serums (they are not that different from each other) - and wait for the next new one to hit hard.

It is called the circle of life. Regarding our understanding and tools we are pretty much very well prepared. From or mindset and our social capabilities, we are - well - still 100k years behind.

Best
Thorsten 

[The Reader]

Already known? https://www.lego.com/de-de/aboutus/news/2020/march/a-letter-from-niels-b-christiansen

[leafan]

30 minutes ago, The Reader said:

Already known? https://www.lego.com/de-de/aboutus/news/2020/march/a-letter-from-niels-b-christiansen

I have to say that TLG still saying it's employee's is a great gesture. My level of respect for the leadership of the company has gone up a little.

[Toastie]

Just now, leafan said:

I have to say that TLG still saying it's employee's is a great gesture.

They don't even have >any< other option. Nice read, but this is what >every< company, school, university, flower shop ... is doing right now. >Has to< do right now. Whether they will survive that one (financially!!!) is not of concern, as they will be shut down by police and would be better people anyways. Maybe not today, but surely the coming days. Exponential functions, once you have got a grasp on them, are always full of surprise: Woah: I didn't see that one coming (Knife! ... Does anyone remember these hilarious movies? I love them). We are in full swing of mass hysteria. 

I believe it is much less of a great gesture. It is what they >have< to do to not look greedy or not-caring. Every single "entity" is doing this right now on this planet. For whatever reason and with what fall-out does simply not count anymore. Do it or see the shitstorm coming - right in your face.

Oh ... the governments of all affected countries are now throwing >infinite< amounts of money into "the system". Nice move. You know what? I'd love to see that during less crazy times as well. But you know what? In these less crazy times you are called a not-knowing-anthing-about-the-market idiot. Or socialist. Maybe even voting green. Oh well, good times now: All hell breaks loose and all of a sudden survival of the fittest, competition, only the best, all that crap is - on halt. Now we want solidarity ... and when its over ...

Woohooo!

Best
Thorsten

[leafan]

Just now, Toastie said:

They don't even have >any< other option. Nice read, but this is what >every< company, school, university, flower shop ... is doing right now. >Has to< do right now. Whether they will survive that one (financially!!!) is not of concern, as they will be shut down by police and would be better people anyways. Maybe not today, but surely the coming days. Exponential functions, once you have got a grasp on them, are always full of surprise: Woah: I didn't see that one coming (Knife! ... Does anyone remember these hilarious movies? I love them). We are in full swing of mass hysteria. 

I believe it is much less of a great gesture. It is what they >have< to do to not look greedy or not-caring. Every single "entity" is doing this right now on this planet. For whatever reason and with what fall-out does simply not count anymore. Do it or see the shitstorm coming - right in your face.

Oh ... the governments of all affected countries are now throwing >infinite< amounts of money into "the system". Nice move. You know what? I'd love to see that during less crazy times as well. But you know what? In these less crazy times you are called a not-knowing-anthing-about-the-market idiot. Or socialist. Maybe even voting green. Oh well, good times now: All hell breaks loose and all of a sudden survival of the fittest, competition, only the best, all that crap is - on halt. Now we want solidarity ... and when its over ...

Woohooo!

Best
Thorsten

Well admittedly, I do not know much about Danish law during this time or the current situation; but in the UK where I live, I know that companies do not have to pay you for no work.

The governemt has advised to work from home if at all possible, but if it's not possible you're expecting to attend - and if you don't - you don't get paid (unless you're sick).

[Toastie]

Just now, leafan said:

The governemt has advised to work from home if at all possible,

Does the government also check on the credibility of the "possible" bit or is that up to the "creativity" of your employer? This is what it is in Germany right now. Find a creative way to stay home and we will (at least partly) compensate the company.

Best
Thorsten

 

[leafan]

Just now, Toastie said:

Does the government also check on the credibility of the "possible" bit or is that up to the "creativity" of your employer? This is what it is in Germany right now. Find a creative way to stay home and we will (at least partly) compensate the company.

Best
Thorsten

No, why would they? It's just guidance from the government and up to the companies to decide.

Obviously, if they were to abuse this, the employee could take it further.

Anyway, this is kind of getting off-topic. I thought it was a nice gesture as the Lego Group employs people in the UK stores and now they're getting paid for staying at home, which in my opinion is great under the circumstances.

[Toastie]

1 hour ago, GREG998 said:

covid-19

Heehee - I like to be an a**hole:

Covid-19 is the name of the disease. SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the virus. Corona is a beer. So when you suffer from Corona, you most probably have a serious hang-over.

Best
Thorsten

Just now, leafan said:

which in my opinion is great under the circumstances.

And that is very true.

Hope all is well!

Best wishes,
Thorsten

[Mylenium]

12 hours ago, KotZ said:

I've read some places say it could end around August, but I'm hopinh, and thinking it won't last that long. As long as people quarantine responsibly for the next two-four weeks, cases in the US should go back to normal.

Don't be naive and/or listen to Trumpian conspiracy nonsense. This thing is here to stay. It's not going to magically die off in any form. For the time being it's really about flattening the curve to not overburden health systems, but otherwise this thing is going to be with us for the next decade with outbreaks only getting potentially smaller with every cycle due to better treatment options. The next two years are going to be particularly hard with no vaccine or tested reliable antiviral agent being available. That is simply that.

Mylenium

Edited March 19, 2020 by Mylenium

[The Brick Boss]

@KotZ is right. Our jobs are being suspended because of this crap. We are now bored and at home doing absolutely nothing with our lives. We understand that it may be here for a while, but we should at least be allowed to go back to work as normal by sometime in April. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Brandon Pea

[Mylenium]

12 hours ago, Toastie said:

I sure and desperately hope that we come to grips with that >way earlier<

We won't. That's the whole point. Nobody can produce mass doses of vaccines overnight and inoculate millions of people. And forgive me, but even you are sounding naive on some level. We have no reliable numbers about Africa, certain Asian regions or for that matter Russia, Moldova and several other Eastern European countries. Even if we manage to quell the storm in the Western hemisphere, there's no way of telling how the virus will survive in these areas. I would even go so far as to make that same assessment for the shit show that is the US health system. It's simply scary that this virus could survive and proliferate an some backwoods communities in Tennessee for years. Any assumptions of quick victories are just plain irrational. Take it from someone with a serious lung condition who had to practice "social distancing" and all that for years... You ain't seen nothing yet! Battling resilient infectious diseases is not as simple as isolating people for a few months. On some level I'm even rubbing my hands and laughing like a mad man while watching all this go down...

Mylenium

Just now, Brandon Pea said:

we should at least be allowed to go back to work as normal by sometime in April. 

Unlikely. Currently the US are still in the exponential growth phase. Things will get harder before they get better. I wouldn't estimate anything to get better before end of May in the US.

Mylenium

[The Brick Boss]

Just now, Mylenium said:

On some level I'm even rubbing my hands and laughing like a mad man while watching all this go down...

For you to take pleasure from the pain of others really says who you are as a person. 

[Mylenium]

Just now, Brandon Pea said:

For you to take pleasure from the pain of others really says who you are as a person. 

You can assume whatever you want, but perhaps you're simply missing a hint of irony. As I said I'm living through such shit for years, so forgive me when I'm having a laugh when people find out they can actually wash their hands more than once a day... That's all I'm saying.

Mylenium

[Toastie]

44 minutes ago, Mylenium said:

I sure and desperately hope that we come to grips with that >way earlier<

Merde - that did not work: I tried to quote a quote you quoted - so above is what I wrote earlier and not @Mylenium!

Well, I believe you misunderstood that - it was phrased crappy anyways. Sorry for that.

With "coming to grips" I meant: Get our apparently so advanced home sapiens sapiens head around the fact that

• a) viruses have been, are, and will be there for the existence of earth, causing regularly epi- and pandemics
• b) that homo sapiens sapiens will of course try (and is able to!) to generate serums faster and faster (I mean, honestly, 100 years ago, next to nothing was known about "them", today, we can produce a serum for mass vaccination within a year, make that two. RNA known to the last bit in the amino acid sequence, functionality unraveled, synthesis done, and at least with some degree of certainty, sure that is does not only kill the virus but the host as well, and produce that stuff - for the wealthy of course)
• most importantly: Homo sapiens sapiens does not completely >freak out< each time a new virus apparently conquers the world. Instead of: Get used to the presence of SARS-CoV-2. So far we got - as it seems to me - very comfortably used to the presence of SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and the HCOV varieties. And the very same is true for Influenza A/HxHy viruses.
  Wikipedia knows: "Influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths. About 20% of unvaccinated children and 10% of unvaccinated adults are infected each year. In the northern and southern parts of the world, outbreaks occur mainly in the winter, while around the equator, outbreaks may occur at any time of the year".

That's all I meant. Believe me, I know what the loss of a life means. I feel that I have experienced that too often in my own circle of life - regarding loved ones way younger than I am. But what I really can't get into my head is this complete and utter loss of internal integrity and logic. In the end, whenever that is, we will get used to SARS-CoV-2 as well. For sure. And I sure hope earlier than later. When it continues as it does know, the collateral damage will be (or is already) much larger than what would have happened without all the craziness.

And finally: We have to follow "the daily changing new rules" - of course we have to. Everything else would mean anarchy - and nobody wants that. My entire research group + other personnel I have to take care of are in home-office since last Friday - that was days before it was mandated by the higher university authorities. (Why? Because we often work with exponential functions and b) because I pretty much remembered what happened when Influenza A/H1N1 was bringing the world to a wood be grinding halt. From the present perspective, it looked - well - small. But even "back then" it was interpreted by many as the end of the world). However, that little extra time made that "relocation" very, very smooth. We had fun actually in arranging all what was necessary.

Best
Thorsten

 

   

1 hour ago, Mylenium said:

On some level I'm even rubbing my hands and laughing like a mad man while watching all this go down...

Same here.

With your serious health condition, you have naturally an even way more distinct perspective on what is going on right now. But yes, I do the same. Not because others are in harm or are hurt badly by all that, as @Brandon Pea interpreted that part of your post, but rather from the perspective of the world of hybris homo sapiens sapiens is living in the western world. We think we have it all and can do what ever comes to mind, but we are dwarfed by our own craziness.

Best
Thorsten

[KotZ]

5 hours ago, Mylenium said:

Don't be naive and/or listen to Trumpian conspiracy nonsense. This thing is here to stay. It's not going to magically die off in any form. For the time being it's really about flattening the curve to not overburden health systems, but otherwise this thing is going to be with us for the next decade with outbreaks only getting potentially smaller with every cycle due to better treatment options. The next two years are going to be particularly hard with no vaccine or tested reliable antiviral agent being available. That is simply that.

Mylenium

Sorry, I should've explained myself better. What I meant to say was that we can get some semblance of normal life again in two-four weeks, especially since people need to work, eat, etc. And you're right, we'll probably have smaller outbreaks as we go along, but hopefully we can get over the bad part relatively soon.

[The Brick Boss]

7 minutes ago, KotZ said:

Sorry, I should've explained myself better. What I meant to say was that we can get some semblance of normal life again in two-four weeks, especially since people need to work, eat, etc. And you're right, we'll probably have smaller outbreaks as we go along, but hopefully we can get over the bad part relatively soon.

That's what I'm trying to say too. I'm hoping by the middle of April, it calms down just enough for me to be able to go back to work. The garage area at the petrol station I work at is closed. No repairs until this whole thing is finished. The only parts that are opened are the gas pumps and convience store. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by Brandon Pea

[dr_spock]

5 hours ago, Brandon Pea said:

@KotZ is right. Our jobs are being suspended because of this crap. We are now bored and at home doing absolutely nothing with our lives. We understand that it may be here for a while, but we should at least be allowed to go back to work as normal by sometime in April. 

I'm building and sorting LEGO.  I'm also planning my plot at the community garden.  I saw something about TP seeds on the Internet.  Going to give that a try. 

[The Brick Boss]

Just now, dr_spock said:

I'm building and sorting LEGO.  I'm also planning my plot at the community garden.  I saw something about TP seeds on the Internet.  Going to give that a try. 

Yeah! At least you've got a garden. I live in a town house. So its different for me. 

[dr_spock]

10 minutes ago, Brandon Pea said:

Yeah! At least you've got a garden. I live in a town house. So its different for me. 

My garden is located at a community garden.  Our town set aside some land for one.  I applied and got a small plot. I enjoy the challenge of growing pesticide free food. Your town/city may offer something similar.

 

[The Brick Boss]

3 minutes ago, dr_spock said:

My garden is located at a community garden. 

Your town/city may offer something similar.

 

Well we do have some farms in the area. I'll see what they've got. 

[AFOLguy1970]

This is certainly the most serious economic threat I have seen, even more so than the 9-11 aftermath or the 2008 crisis.  Both of my brothers have lost their jobs.  My governor of my state just issued a declaration that all schools will now remain closed until April 3.  I work at a public school.  Since I am on contract, I do not see a problem with this school year, however we do get paid from taxpayer money.  And from what I am seeing, there is not going to be a whole lot of taxpayer money in the foreseeable months.  Simply, people that dont have jobs are have been told to stay home do not get paid, so they will not pay taxes.  Unless you work in a critical industry, your livelihood is probably threatened.  

Since the thread is about how Lego is impacted by all this, I would say there will be a short term crash in sales as disposable income is dried up in many markets.  Lego is certainly a premium toy and far less essential than house payments, food, utilities, etc.  As the worst blows over, I would imagine that sales will get a little bit better.  We are certainly experiencing something historic, so everyone, Lego included, is going to have to adapt to a new set of rules.  The good news is that the China stores remain open.  That would mean that China, the original epicenter of the virus, is now on the road to recovery.  My hope is that a sense of normalcy returns by summer in the sense that we will not be kept from working, traveling,  not have to wait in line just to get in a store, and function as a normal society.