COVID-19 and will it impact Lego's profits?

[Toastie]

43 minutes ago, GREG998 said:

No joke, this is the most serious economic and civilisational threat

Economic? Yes. Civilisational? Well, maybe. Time will tell.

When you go through the "plagues" of the past, and you go way back - it depends on what you take as measure. Is it dramatic economic loss, the crash of a totally overheated, completely bubble based "economy" - with all the fall out for billions of people? Then: Yes. It is. But only because we are living in mass hysterical times. And within a trade/economic system that is sick. Every time there are hick-ups in this system - it freaks out. When the going gets tough, this system becomes immediately worthless. And all, really all people, want the government to take over. Man. Capitalism works beautifully well when all is "good" (heck THAT is cynical); but where are all these stock exchange super power players NOW?  

When it comes to death toll - sorry. I cannot follow that path. Not with the death toll, the populations on this planet are causing every single day - without any and all hesitation. I cannot.

But what do I know. Logic, that is for sure, is not around these days.

Best
Thorsten

   

1 hour ago, AFOLguy1970 said:

My hope is that a sense of normalcy returns by summer in the sense that we will not be kept from working, traveling,  not have to wait in line just to get in a store, and function as a normal society.  

I cannot agree more. But this means that we get used to the threat of SARS-CoV-2, that we accept what happens and may become worse.

China is apparently over it. Do you really believe that? To me that is utter nonsense. Who found the switch to turn off SARS-CoV-2? Nobody. They are willing to take the tough route. That is my take. Because when they don't, all that economic glory over there will vanish and one billion people will soon become insane. Even in a country that is under dictatorship, such a scenario is unthinkable. That is what I believe. 

Best
Thorsten 

[Mylenium]

17 hours ago, KotZ said:

Sorry, I should've explained myself better. What I meant to say was that we can get some semblance of normal life again in two-four weeks, especially since people need to work, eat, etc. 

Statistics currently speak a different language, unfortunately. The number of cases still rise even in Italy and they have been on lockdown for weeks now. Again, expecting anything to change before the end of May in the US is perhaps going to end up in disappointment IMO. Seeing what's going on with kids and their Spring Break attitude on TV even makes me fear you may see a lot worse. Don't take this the wrong way: I know how many US people struggle even under regular conditions, but you may need to prepare for some really tough shit to be thrown your way those next few months...

Mylenium

21 hours ago, Toastie said:

Believe me, I know what the loss of a life means.

I'm sure you do just as well as I do. 19-year-olds dying of CF certainly isn't funny even if you only know them in passing from doctor's visits.

21 hours ago, Toastie said:

But what I really can't get into my head is this complete and utter loss of internal integrity and logic.

Well, psychology. I keep forgetting the exact name, but there's this proven theory of people doing exactly the wrong thing in pressure situations even if they have the option to do the right thing. Same for panic buying and so on. and let's face it: Politics is a big part of it. Nobody wants to look bad and take responsibility in this type of situation.

Mylenium

[Toastie]

1 hour ago, Mylenium said:

Politics is a big part of it

Absolutely true. I believe it has a major impact on the fall out of events like this. Elections. Being apparently in control. When they do it we have to do it and even better - all that utter crap. I am following this closely in Germany - there is now a pissing contest on which state announces curfew first - you know, we'll "get" a new chancellor next year. It is all so crazy. 

And the means of getting every bit of electronic trash into every mobile phone on this planet. Which is in principle a good thing. As long as people behave responsibly. Well. Assemble 50 people and chances are, things may turn ugly - after they were told that the toilet paper industry crashed because of aliens that infused an unknown virus into the toilet paper making machine computers. Some will believe it. The alien bit.

That's the Black swan theory, isn't it? Nice read on wikipedia.

All the best!
Thorsten

 

[TeriXeri]

LEGO makes plastic visors now to help hospital workers in Denmark and later Worldwide :

https://www.stonewars.de/news/lego-schutzbrillen-covid-19/

 

Edited April 11, 2020 by TeriXeri

[brickbuilder711]

Hats off to TLG for producing the visors. Now what's kind of interesting is you can see the clear plastic really resembling the clear elements they made of late, in terms of their holographic glow and what not, and hopefully they fixed QC issues with that plastic.

Online sales are doing quite well. I think online PAB is in a predicament with fewer workers, but perhaps lower demand. It is hard to say if this will pin a nail in the coffin for in-store PAB and BAM, let alone the play areas. A lot of hands touch the latter, and a few hands touch the former. If resumption of business as usual is phased, I'd expect just sets to be marketed until the situation normalizes further.

LEGO is nonetheless quite an essential product, for state of mind 

[KotZ]

15 hours ago, brickbuilder711 said:

Hats off to TLG for producing the visors. Now what's kind of interesting is you can see the clear plastic really resembling the clear elements they made of late, in terms of their holographic glow and what not, and hopefully they fixed QC issues with that plastic.

Online sales are doing quite well. I think online PAB is in a predicament with fewer workers, but perhaps lower demand. It is hard to say if this will pin a nail in the coffin for in-store PAB and BAM, let alone the play areas. A lot of hands touch the latter, and a few hands touch the former. If resumption of business as usual is phased, I'd expect just sets to be marketed until the situation normalizes further.

LEGO is nonetheless quite an essential product, for state of mind 

I don't know how much business in-store PAB and BAM are, but they're great for impulse buying or if anyone wants to just have random parts to give to someone and don't know what they would like, etc. I hope they keep the wall once this all settles down.

[masterX244]

12 hours ago, KotZ said:

I don't know how much business in-store PAB and BAM are, but they're great for impulse buying or if anyone wants to just have random parts to give to someone and don't know what they would like, etc. I hope they keep the wall once this all settles down.

Funnily a PAB wall inspired me for a Mod of the Lunar Lander set. (there was a bin with 1x2 dark gray tiles inside. Used them and a bunch of preexisting plates for expanding the base). So they have some Use, too

[TeriXeri]

Weird times we're in, just beside the virus situation, some recent economic measures/plans regarding retailers:

- The Netherlands is planning to ban "Sale" (discount) on non-food items until July 1st. (no exact details yet)

- Amazon France ordered by Court to stop selling non-essential items. (Starts tomorrow 15-April-2020 , or they'd have to pay a fine of €1million per day)

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by TeriXeri

[Masked Mini]

The arbitrary prohibition on selling non-essential goods is pants on head retarded, pardon my French. Some US states have done this already, banning amongst other things the sale of clothing, art supplies, books and other entertainment. Alot of us suddenly have to entertain and homeschool our kids all day, every day. People need new clothing when they need new clothing. You can't tell me that underwear is non-essential. So now when people already go to a store to buy essentials they can not purchase the other stuff they need because some bureaucrat decided that item needed to be roped off.

 

It is one thing to try and discourage an increase in physical shoppers in stores with a moritorium on sales or doorbusters. It is another to entirely choke out what remains of the economy that is not deemed essential by some paper pusher.

 

I worry about my local mom and pop (Lego resale) stores. They are trying hard to safely stay in business, shifting to online sales, curbside pickup even trying mail-order. It antagonizes my internal values to see them being suffocated because someone deemed their livelyhood non-essential. If we choke them out, only the giant retailers will be left standing when the dust settles.

 

/Rant

[LegoDW]

Yes feel TLG like everyone else will have to adjust supplies to match demand.  With people dying and out of work, going to be hard to justify buying Lego for sometime.  TLG makes a superior product and IMO they will reduce supply rather then cut their prices.  We might see a price reduction on bricks and pieces if they have a lot of bricks they need to clear from their inventory.  

I hope they hold off any really good gift with purchases till most folks can afford Lego again.  

[Mylenium]

1 hour ago, LegoDW said:

they will reduce supply rather then cut their prices.

People are still going to want to buy LEGO even in a pinch. Prices are currently going up even because people are sitting at home twiddling their fingers. So why would you cut off your own legs by not supplying enough stuff to fill demand? I honestly don't follow your logic. And whether or not there are any long-term effects remains to be seen. If there are any, then I feel just the opposite of what you state might be the smart move - just don't fire out so many super expensive sets and give people a few smaller, more affordable sets they can still buy on a limited budget. Sure, LEGO are not going to see any significant growth for a while, but earning half a dollar on a small set is still better than earning zero dollar on a big set nobody can afford...

Mylenium

[MAB]

On 4/15/2020 at 8:25 PM, Masked Mini said:

 People need new clothing when they need new clothing. You can't tell me that underwear is non-essential. So now when people already go to a store to buy essentials they can not purchase the other stuff they need because some bureaucrat decided that item needed to be roped off.

I guess the point is that they don't want people doing shopping for leisure, trying on loads of outfits and so on. So maybe, there should be a rule that one style of basic underwear, T-shirt, warmer sweater and sweatpants should be made for both men and women. And make it in grey, or maybe a choice of light grey and dark grey.

Then LEGO could follow the same, you can buy basic bricks only, and only in LBG and DBG. That would be heaven for castle builders ! :-)

 

[LegoDW]

9 hours ago, Mylenium said:

People are still going to want to buy LEGO even in a pinch. Prices are currently going up even because people are sitting at home twiddling their fingers. So why would you cut off your own legs by not supplying enough stuff to fill demand? I honestly don't follow your logic. And whether or not there are any long-term effects remains to be seen. If there are any, then I feel just the opposite of what you state might be the smart move - just don't fire out so many super expensive sets and give people a few smaller, more affordable sets they can still buy on a limited budget. Sure, LEGO are not going to see any significant growth for a while, but earning half a dollar on a small set is still better than earning zero dollar on a big set nobody can afford...

Mylenium

Well hope we can at least agree they should hold off on the really good gift with purchase sets (with a high dollar minimum purchase to qualify).till folks get back to work.

[AFOLguy1970]

1 hour ago, LegoDW said:

Well hope we can at least agree they should hold off on the really good gift with purchase sets (with a high dollar minimum purchase to qualify).till folks get back to work.

Yeah, that would be kind of cruel if they brought in something that many people would really want and offer it for a limited time in the middle of an economic slowdown.  As for demand, I can totally see an increase of demand from those sitting at home AND with incomes.  At the same time, I can see a loss of demand from those who can no longer afford anything nonessential.  How that is going to impact overall demand is anyone's guess.  

[LegoDW]

6 hours ago, AFOLguy1970 said:

Yeah, that would be kind of cruel if they brought in something that many people would really want and offer it for a limited time in the middle of an economic slowdown.  As for demand, I can totally see an increase of demand from those sitting at home AND with incomes.  At the same time, I can see a loss of demand from those who can no longer afford anything nonessential.  How that is going to impact overall demand is anyone's guess.  

I have missed a few gift with purchases over the years and those are the sets that got away for me.  Almost missed the 40th anniversary train....this is by far my favorite gift with purchase set.  

[TeriXeri]

Interesting article about re-opening of LEGO store in Germany 

https://www.promobricks.de/lego-brand-stores-corona-krise/99437/

No Pick-a-Brick or Build-a-Minifigure, and Minifigure Series 20 is pre-sorted.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by TeriXeri

[The Brick Boss]

1 hour ago, TeriXeri said:

Interesting article about re-opening of LEGO store in Germany 

https://www.promobricks.de/lego-brand-stores-corona-krise/99437/

No Pick-a-Brick or Build-a-Minifigure, and Minifigure Series 20 is pre-sorted.

 

Hopefully the Lego stores here in the state of Virginia open up soon too. Maryland is opening up non-essential businesses soon too. The bible belt is also doing so. America is slowly opening back up. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Brandon Pea

[TeriXeri]

Lots of sets on backorder on LEGO.com,  but of course there is no way to tell if it's a case of selling them so fast, or limited production capacity.

Especially impacting the larger sets.

Edited May 12, 2020 by TeriXeri

[The Brick Boss]

2 hours ago, TeriXeri said:

Lots of sets on backorder on LEGO.com,  but of course there is no way to tell if it's a case of selling them so fast, or limited production capacity.

As sad as it seems, I think the latter is more likely than the former as it seems like the economy has slowed down dramatically since this pandemic happened. So I'm assuming that they limiting production as of now. That could explain why we haven't seen the airport on the coming soon list on Lego Shop yet. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by Brandon Pea

[OccamsRazor]

Not sure if i'm the exception, bit I personally got back into Lego at the beginning of this year partially because of COVID and social distancing.

[Pulp Detective]

My question is how badly will the virus impact production for future sets.Are we gonna get new sets next january as always or will there be a delay? 

[MAB]

8 hours ago, LOTR34 said:

My question is how badly will the virus impact production for future sets.Are we gonna get new sets next january as always or will there be a delay? 

Well they are continuing to release sets now, so presumably we will get some new ones in January. Production does not need many staff, and not close to each other. The issue might be designs of new sets, but I guess designers can still work from home and design decisions can still be made via online meetings.