German Toy Fair – LEGO To Increase Focus On AFOLs

[Masked Mini]

28 minutes ago, leafan said:

I presume that BEAT is just the data report created by the external company, NPD Group Germany.

That's a problem. If we are getting serious here, then neither side gets to presume or assume or guess.
We need to KNOW in order to make good arguments. Or we resort to speculation which means that any result we arrive at will only ever be … speculation.
Now speculation is fun and has it's place but if we are trying to prove or debunk figures, which we as a collective will throw around for years as definitive fact, then they need to be proven out as facts not presumptions.

The article IS written in a way that sets off my bovine swirl stud detector. Very curly writing of statements derived from cited but private sources flowing into and around statements quoted from a Lego Gmbh Staff member. What is clear right now is that nothing is clear. I am a native German speaker and will try to find, read, translate the sources and original article tonight. This has gone beyond fun speculation for me.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Masked Mini
which which is which?

[Toastie]

12 minutes ago, Brandon Pea said:

Whether its 5%, 10%, or even 50% that AFOLs make up

Awww man - I came up an exact number!

>Just kidding< and fully agree on your post!!!

Best regards
Thorsten

 

[leafan]

44 minutes ago, Masked Mini said:

That's a problem. If we are getting serious here, then neither side gets to presume or assume or guess.
We need to KNOW in order to make good arguments. Or we resort to speculation which means that any result we arrive at will only ever be … speculation.

Well I'm not the one making the assertion that AFOLs are 10% of the customer base, so actually the burden of proof would not be on me.

I presumed that, because they don't state what BEAT is, and it's not even clear that that stated source is referring to the segment in which I took my initial information.

That particular segment of the article states quite clearly that the data comes from internal sources - I'm not sure how much of a stretch this is.

Edited February 4, 2020 by leafan

[The Brick Boss]

1 hour ago, Toastie said:

Awww man - I came up an exact number!

>Just kidding< and fully agree on your post!!!

Best regards
Thorsten

Aye! Someone has to make peace around here. 

 

[Mylenium]

15 hours ago, danth said:

Lego's internal numbers are literally the best possible information that exists in the world for what people by what Legos and for who. They don't need to know about your single purchase in Tesco. Statistics is a thing, and it's not a "guess', it's actual math. Facts don't get much more solid that this number. 

The report discussed here is not based on internal surveys, it's an external survey by a market research company that themselves may not have any reference point to LEGO's internal sales channel data. Also keep in mind that they were looking at the toy market as a whole, not just LEGO specifically. So for what it's worth, this is far from being absolutely reliable data, even more so since the actual study isn't published for review. LEGO can make any number of claims about it without ever proving anything. And we could all have a little fun and do the same for other manufacturers/ vendors. GeoBra (Playmobil) claims growth as well, when everyone agrees that overall the German toy market is stagnating or even shrinking. So who's right? I wouldn't put too much stock in any of this. Public market studies are made to look good and it doesn't matter whether that's by leaving out some important questions or simply limiting the scope. I for one for instance am pretty sure that they didn't go out of their way to cover every mom & dad outlet and only focused on big retailers like warehouse chains. Conversely, I'm also sure they didn't ask which sets catch dust on shelves vs. the ones that actually sell like crazy. The data is most definitely skewed and biased somehow.

Mylenium

[The Brick Boss]

1 hour ago, Mylenium said:

LEGO can make any number of claims about it without ever proving anything.

Really? They could? And to think I had faith in the company's sales data. 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Brandon Pea

[danth]

On 2/4/2020 at 11:48 AM, leafan said:

Ok, before I reply to you @danth, how about you drop the passive agrresive tone and let me know if you've got a problem ok? Moving on... 

I tried to be civil in my response, and didn't mean to convey a tone. I'm just totally bewildered by the responses to these numbers.

You guys really think numbers stated in a Lego press release, based on their own data ("Internal surveys" -- direct quote from the article), are totally meaningless? Are just guesses? And Lego is making decisions about what products to sell based on guesses that mean nothing? Seriously?

That is an absolutely nonsensical take on all of this.

How many times has someone on Eurobricks said "Lego should do this, it would be cool" or "Why did Lego make this, it's lame", only to be told "Shut up, Lego knows how to do market research, so they know what sells and what doesn't, they know what they're doing!" And now, when Lego actually releases numbers based on market research, it's all "Lego's numbers mean nothing, they don't know how to do market research, everything's just a guess!"

I'm just calling it like I see it: this is extreme bias against the legitimacy of the AFOL market and nothing more.

 

On 2/4/2020 at 11:48 AM, leafan said:

I presume that BEAT is just the data report created by the external company, NPD Group Germany. Their data is based on retail sales, but the age, gender and recipient of the sale is a guess based on the things I mentioned before; so in short, I agree it means very little.

Okay, but you are literally just guessing yourself here, based on nothing, and using your own speculation to dismiss number Lego came up with. Lego has enough faith in the number to release it to the press, and to make decisions using it. So why would anyone believe your dismissal over Lego's statements?

On 2/4/2020 at 12:11 PM, Masked Mini said:

That's a problem. If we are getting serious here, then neither side gets to presume or assume or guess.
We need to KNOW in order to make good arguments. Or we resort to speculation which means that any result we arrive at will only ever be … speculation.

Again, Lego themselves released these numbers, and is making financial decisions based on them. This is not a guess. It's not speculation.

The only side that is assuming are the people trying to dismiss the 10% number.

On 2/5/2020 at 12:18 AM, Mylenium said:

The report discussed here is not based on internal surveys, it's an external survey by a market research company that themselves may not have any reference point to LEGO's internal sales channel data.

How could you possibly know this? Can you site a source?

On 2/5/2020 at 12:18 AM, Mylenium said:

 So for what it's worth, this is far from being absolutely reliable data, even more so since the actual study isn't published for review.

So LEGO decided to make more sets to appeal to AFOLS based on unreliable data? Seriously?

The whole argument you guys are making boils down to "Lego's number must be a guess, here's why:" followed by a bunch of guesses and speculation.

Edited February 8, 2020 by danth

[The Brick Boss]

6 minutes ago, danth said:

How many times has someone on Eurobricks said "Lego should do this, it would be cool" or "Why did Lego make this, it's lame", only to be told "Shut up, Lego knows how to do market research, so they know what sells and what doesn't, they know what they're doing!" And now, when Lego actually releases numbers based on market research, it's all "Lego's numbers mean nothing, they don't know how to do market research, everything's just a guess!"

That there has been my issue with this forum. It's because of responses like that which makes me wish I never joined this forum. Look at it from a business standpoint. If you are the CEO of a business and you want to push a certain type of product, of course that particular product you make is going to sell if that's almost the only thing you push. That's like rigging sales data. You've got to distribute your products in a method that's reasonable. You can't just push only one thing and pass that as your best seller. 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Brandon Pea

[Toastie]

3 hours ago, Brandon Pea said:

That there has been my issue with this forum

Whoops - I am lost ... I joined this forum to share my ideas, to ask for advice, to help out where I can (if at all), to listen to advice, to learn (a lot).

And then - at the very end of all that - to discuss.

I believe EB is there to learn. And to share. Upon posting.

There are forums on EB where people do believe, they could make a difference. Or know what is going on. As in: They know. Because they have been her "for ever". And have collected things forever. And then what? TLG does what they want. And that is it. Period. It is the most natural thing to happen in a world of competition. Of business.

Over and out.

The fun part is that we can speculate, calculate, propose, believe, hope, and criticize whatever we want. And hear all the oh so educated replies. From stone old people. From people who believe they know. From ambassadors (whatever they do). And from all these "have seen that and have been there" folks - and - nevertheless the company does what it sees fit.

Why be disappointed? I don't get it.

Make a proposal. See as it hits the fan. And then do as the gremlins do: Laugh your as* off. It's fun to be here.

Nothing ever has been changed on TLGs agenda because of EB. Never. But it is fun to believe we >could<.

So just go on and throw in ideas.

And most importantly: Build stuff. And share. And don't talk that much. Do something

Best
Thorsten

Heehee: Edit: Just read this:

Read it carefully: EB is one of hundreds of media TLG is following ...

Edited February 8, 2020 by Toastie
Uhmmm - support ... :-)

[The Brick Boss]

1 minute ago, Toastie said:

Or know what is going on. As in: They know. Because they have been her "for ever". And have collected things forever. 

Just because they've been here for years doesn't mean that they know everything. I've collected things forever and have studied TLG's annoyingly repetitive patterns. But I just discovered this forum. 

2 minutes ago, Toastie said:

TLG does what they want. And that is it. Period. 

See? If something like that were said..... I could respect that more than

"Shaddup! TLG knows what they're doing."

"They don't need you commenting on their work"

"If you don't like, don't buy. But keep your mouth shut you prat!" 

....or comments similar to those. 

5 minutes ago, Toastie said:

The fun part is that we can speculate, calculate, propose, believe, hope, and criticize whatever we want. And hear all the oh so educated replies

Exactly! That's why I think being silenced or told "that will never work" without even giving it a chance, makes doing that less fun. For me personally, I'm sometimes afraid to put my ideas out there or when i do, i have to word it a certain way so people won't start tempering my ideas. 

8 minutes ago, Toastie said:

Why be disappointed? I don't get it.

When you're told that your ideas won't work, you can't help but feel disappointment or discouraged. Personally I hide my disappointment with rage or fury. 

[Mylenium]

14 hours ago, danth said:

How could you possibly know this? Can you site a source?

It says so in the press release - an evaluation of the German toy market, of course with an emphasis on and from the perspective of LEGO. I'm not getting into your other arguments, or else I'd have to use an ugly F-word.

Mylenium

[The Brick Boss]

1 hour ago, Mylenium said:

or else I'd have to use an ugly F-word.

Whoa dude! Calm down. I wouldn't want one of our board meetings to turn ugly. 

[Masked Mini]

17 hours ago, danth said:

Again, Lego themselves released these numbers

Citation needed!

17 hours ago, danth said:

How could you possibly know this? Can you site a source?

Literally in the article and cited below it. 

[danth]

EDIT: Was trying to edit post but screwed up; posted below instead. 

Edited February 9, 2020 by danth

[TeriXeri]

It only seems this little part of the whole article is based on internal data :

"The company also achieved its goal in the past financial year to inspire and promote more children and adults with the LEGO® gaming experience. Internal surveys show that every second child [2] in Germany received at least one new LEGO® product last year."

And then directly follows up this statement with : 

"In addition, every tenth euro was spent on an adult. [3]" 

3 being a different Source then 2.

[2] Source: BEAT internal market research, period January – October, age of children 3 – 12 years
[3] Source: npdgroup Germany , Market coverage 73%

 

Edited February 9, 2020 by TeriXeri

[danth]

5 hours ago, Mylenium said:

It says so in the press release - an evaluation of the German toy market, of course with an emphasis on and from the perspective of LEGO. I'm not getting into your other arguments, or else I'd have to use an ugly F-word.

Mylenium

Ah, I think I'm seeing the source of confusion:

Quote

The company also achieved its goal in the past financial year to inspire and promote more children and adults with the LEGO® gaming experience. Internal surveys show that every second child [2] in Germany received at least one new LEGO® product last year. In addition, every tenth euro was spent on an adult.

[3] In a very dynamic toy market in Germany, the market share was maintained at the high level of the previous year and is thus 16.8 percent.

That [3] is after the period and on the next line! That's not how you cite something. Super confusing! 

I'm not sure if the [3] is supposed to be attached to the 10% number (in which the citation should be one the same line and before the period, probably right after "tenth euro") or the 16.8% number (in which case it should be after it).

Honestly it makes more sense if the 10% number came from [2] not [3]. Is general market share info really going to include what percent of Lego sales were for adults?

Aha, actually [1] and [3] are the same source, and the 16.8% number was already attached to [1] above in the article, meaning the [3] is probably meant for that as well. I think the 10% of adults number is actually from the BEAT (whatever the heck that stands for) internal market research.

Edited February 9, 2020 by danth

[TeriXeri]

1 hour ago, danth said:

That [3] is after the period and on the next line! That's not how you cite something. Super confusing! 

I think that's the confusing part here as well , the number comes after the period just in that spot.

Edited February 9, 2020 by TeriXeri

[leafan]

@danth Re: your other replies. Seems I'm not going to convince you and vice versa, so I'm happy to leave it at that. But...

On 2/8/2020 at 7:58 PM, danth said:

Again, Lego themselves released these numbers, and is making financial decisions based on them. This is not a guess. It's not speculation.

The only side that is assuming are the people trying to dismiss the 10% number. 

This is where you misunderstand my intent. I actually believe that the AFOL community is much larger than most speculate it to be, so trying to dismiss that argument is not in my own interests.

I want Lego to take existing AFOLs seriously so that they'll cater to that market.

[The Brick Boss]

Just now, leafan said:

I actually believe that the AFOL community is much larger than most speculate it to be, so trying to dismiss that argument is not in my own interests.

I'm not taking sides here. But I think what he was saying was that....well.....10% is THE number of AFOLs. It probably won't get any higher than that. Most people outgrow Lego (and no LEGO hate here. Just telling it like it is) and don't stay fans until they're grown. Its only the dedicated fans that do that. As the years go by, new KFOLs come as old ones outgrow Lego. So as long as Lego exists, at least 90% will always be kids. 

3 minutes ago, leafan said:

I want Lego to take existing AFOLs seriously so that they'll cater to that market.

As much as I agree with you and wish that Lego would take us seriously or listen to us, they're not going to do that. Especially not for its generic themes like City, Friends, Creator, etc. 

[leafan]

Just now, Brandon Pea said:

As much as I agree with you and wish that Lego would take us seriously or listen to us, they're not going to do that. Especially not for its generic themes like City, Friends, Creator, etc.

Then I wish they'd stop saying that they care about AFOLs and that they're pursuing that market.

I can't remember who said it, but someone mentioned that when TLG says AFOL, they probably mean *new* adult fans of Lego, rather than existing customer base (i.e. us); which is probably why they've just announced a new range of Lego books that hold pieces to create flowers etc.

[pombe]

This is what I read:

A marketing survey showed that 10% of LEGO revenue in Germany last year was due to purchases for adult recipients.

Did I read that wrong?

As for whether or not this is good news (to me)...I think it depends on who these adults are and how TLG defines "AFOL".  This could mean more modular sets.  This could mean more Architecture sets.  This could mean more large Technic sets.  This could mean more Star Wars UCS sets.  This could mean more licensed sets based on more mature themes (IDEAS).  This could mean more sets based on nostalgia from older/retired themes (Benny's Space Squad).  Or all/some of the above.

What I think we can agree on is that a higher focus on adults would likely mean more sets with a higher price point and more advanced techniques.

[TeriXeri]

58 minutes ago, leafan said:

I want Lego to take existing AFOLs seriously so that they'll cater to that market.

I was away from LEGO during 2001-2016 and I can clearly see there's more and more focus for AFOL sets compared to 20 years ago.

Back then in the 80s and 90s there were 2 themes with sets for larger kids/adults : Technic and Model Team

The market of large and recurring series of sets has drasticly grown over the last 20 years : 

Not just for new fans either.

 

Those series of large sets have been running for a long time now:

• CE :Modular Buildings 
• CE :Large scale Cars 
• CE :Winter Village 
• SW :UCS Sets  
• CE :Landmarks 
• CE : Amusement Park sets 
• Architecture
• Large Technic sets

And it's not just large sets: seeing how long CMF series run and how much discussion is here about them, I certainly see those as a part of a collector/AFOL product as well, especially the "collecting entire series" thing.

And then there's been more standalone releases of still very large sets :

• UCS Hogwarts 
• 1989 Batmobile 
• The Upside Down 
• IDEAS (very wide spectrum of sets, from TV shows/Movies, to Space, to Creator-Expert type buildings)
• Ninjago City/Docks

I'm not saying that kids/teens can't build or enjoy those sets but many of those sets are at a much higher price range/parts count then the average playsets.

I can only see this segment Grow and not shrink.

 

But I can also see some segments have gotten less sets in recent times : 

• Trains
• Creator 3-in-1 large Houses
• Historical/Classic themes

Edited February 10, 2020 by TeriXeri

[Gomek]

I have a few things to add to the whole AFOL market discussion.

1) I've been saying for years that the kinds of stuff I like as an adult are the exact same things I liked as an kid. Not quite Adult stuff but not quite kid stuff. That said, I think Lego could do well with listening to Adults as they could potentially start making sets they never knew kids wanted.

2) Lego has historically had poor market research. I've heard that in a number of places, and if memory serves me, Netflix's Toys that made Us: Lego has a whole segment about how Lego in the late 90's didn't even have their own sales data, much less market research. I'm sure it's gotten better, but I'd hardly take Lego's numbers as hard fact.

3) I'm sure a large potion of buying decisions for kids are made by adults.

4) I have often drawn comparisons between the comics market and the Lego market. There are a ton of similarities, but more interesting because the time table for Lego is about 20 years off, but still going through the same phases. Comics were just for kids too, and then a combination of a collectable market and better content all of the sudden really legitimized the hobby for Adults. Lego can reap the benefits, but they would also do well to watch for the same pitfalls.

5) The number of Adult fans are really growing. Having collected Lego non-stop for 40 years, I can tell you the number of Adults I've seen buying Lego for themselves, has grown considerably. Not just online but in my personal life.

6) By catering to Adult fans, and promoting Lego as an acceptable hobby for adults, Lego can extent the interest of kids who might other wise have bailed on the hobby in their tweens. I have a nephew who is @13, and I can can tell you he's very inspired by stuff he sees happening in the AFOL community and he's buying way more now then he did when he was under 12.

[leafan]

@Gomek Some great points there.

I think you make a great point is suggesting (if I read right) that Lego has more offerings to stop kids falling into the Dark Ages now.

On another note, I think that even if it happens that the AFOL market is smaller than some of us think, that doesn't mean it can't grow into a large market, given some encouragement.

I don't want to derail this topic, but if TLG made military sets, they'd make a killing to the adult fan-base. And yes, I know - that won't happen, they've said it themselves; I'm just stating an area they're neglecting.

[TeriXeri]

8 minutes ago, leafan said:

@Gomek Some great points there.

I think you make a great point is suggesting (if I read right) that Lego has more offerings to stop kids falling into the Dark Ages now.

There are certainly more offerings now, when I got into the Dark Ages, it was literally the "Dark Age" of LEGO themselves during 2000/2001.

Unless you were a big Star Wars or Bionicle Fan or something, the core of LEGO themes literally had died at that point.

Town/Castle/Pirates/Space all needed multiple years to get back on the right track.

 

Edited February 10, 2020 by TeriXeri