Harry Potter 2020 - Rumors & Discussion

[Vindicare]

13 hours ago, RogueTwo said:

Yes, Diagon Alley will almost certainly be 18+, which is ridiculous...  

I think if/when Diagon Alley sells well, it’s safe to expect a D2C Hogsmeade within the next three years, but other than that I don’t think the Harry Potter theme needs any more enormous sets.  

Why is it ridiculous?

 

Since when did we care about the ages on boxes? Whether it’s 9-14, 12+, 16+, or 18+...we know the set won’t suffer because of it. Box design I could understand for those who keep their boxes.

[THELEGOBATMAN]

Honestly, who even cares about age range number on the box? What difference does it make if it's 16+ or 18+?

[BrickBob Studpants]

Just now, THELEGOBATMAN said:

Honestly, who even cares about age range number on the box? What difference does it make if it's 16+ or 18+?

The age range doesn’t matter at all, what matters to some of us is the boxart  Most (if not all) of us would prefer the set not to be 18+ because that boxart style wouldn’t really fit with DA.

[THELEGOBATMAN]

Just now, Lego-Freak said:

The age range doesn’t matter at all, what matters to some of us is the boxart  Most (if not all) of us would prefer the set not to be 18+ because that boxart style wouldn’t really fit with DA.

Ah, I see. Thanks for explaining 

[Jarreth2]

A quick Fantastic Beast set question .. when they released Newt’s Magical Case and the Thestral Carriage together the Thestral Carriage was from the second movie which at that point hadn’t been released .. I always wonder why they did that ? Or have I got things mixed up. If that’s the case we’ve only had one set from each film. Shame as I really like the FB sets. 
 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Jarreth2

[sebastian666]

58 minutes ago, Jarreth2 said:

A quick Fantastic Beast set question .. when they released Newt’s Magical Case and the Thestral Carriage together the Thestral Carriage was from the second movie which at that point hadn’t been released .. I always wonder why they did that ? Or have I got things mixed up. If that’s the case we’ve only had one set from each film. Shame as I really like the FB sets. 

You are correct. Grindelwald’s escape on the thestral carriage was heavily featured in the marketing and promotion of FB2, which did not come out until November 2018 - several months after the LEGO set was released. It’s pretty standard for toy and merch to come out well in advance of a movie’s release. Look at the Star Wars’ Force Friday events which were designed to hype whatever new movie is being released later that year.

[Retro Brick Reviews]

2 hours ago, Lego-Freak said:

The age range doesn’t matter at all, what matters to some of us is the boxart  Most (if not all) of us would prefer the set not to be 18+ because that boxart style wouldn’t really fit with DA.

A set being 18+ doesn't necessarily mean it will have the black box. Just look at the NES, that set has a custom box design, so there's no real reason DA can't as well.

4 hours ago, Roebuck said:

New week, new possibility's!

The chance for a reveal increase every day now and it will peak on Friday in my mind

Yeah, I have a feeling we'll get at the very least a teaser by Thursday or Friday. 

[BrickBob Studpants]

1 minute ago, Retro Brick Reviews said:

A set being 18+ doesn't necessarily mean it will have the black box. Just look at the NES, that set has a custom box design, so there's no real reason DA can't as well.

It’s definitely the same style though: black background with the LEGO logo on the bottom left above a colourful strip of greebling with the set info on it plus the set’s name floating around somewhere in a fancy font  I fail to see how the NES boxart is supposed to be different from the other 18+ sets

[Balrogofmorgoth]

I think the regular Harry Potter box art would look great with Diagon Alley. I’m not too bothered about it though, even if it’s just black like most D2Cs, it goes right into the recycle bin anyway, I don’t keep boxes (not that I wouldn’t like to, I just wouldn’t have anywhere to put them, I barely have space for Lego display and storage). 

[BrickBob Studpants]

I got bored and decided to look up when the CMF series since the first WW one were revealed, and this is what I found:

• WW S1: 27.6.18 (Wednesday)
• TLM2: 3.1.19 (Thursday)
• Disney S2: 20.3.19 (Wednesday)
• S19: 1.8.19 (Thursday)
• DC: 2.12.19 (Monday)
• S20: 17.3.20 (Tuesday)

Of course nowhere near enough data to infer anything from  Sadly though, it is possible we might not see a reveal this week, as S19, the TLM2 series, and the DC series demonstrate it’s not unprecedented for a series to be revealed at the very beginning of a month rather than at the end of the month prior.

The biggest anomaly is definitely Disney S2, which might have been a response to the equally early leak (not as spectacularly early as HP S2 mind; that one will be legendary ). Series 20 doesn’t really count since it was technically unveiled a month earlier at the NYTF and its release was April 27th rather than May 1st.

Bottom line: expect the unexpected I guess

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Lego-Freak

[Robert8]

Jesus dude....

[RogueTwo]

1 minute ago, Robert8 said:

Jesus dude....

Hey, @Lego-Freak can do the research if they want to!  

Like everyone else, I’m desperate for some news this week.  I predict we’ll get SOMETHING, but probably not as much as I’d like.  

[BrickBob Studpants]

Just now, Robert8 said:

Jesus dude....

You mean my level of boredom?  Hey, it was worth a shot, even if the results are useless  Seems like TLG will reveal stuff whenever they feel like it

 

 

[Robert8]

Just now, Lego-Freak said:

You mean my level of boredom?  Hey, it was worth a shot, even if the results are useless  Seems like TLG will reveal stuff whenever they feel like it

 

 

 yeah it would be really strange if the series isn't unveiled this week

[BacktoBricks]

@Lego-Freak Thanks. I was literally about to do that myself so you've saved me some time. ? Wished it showed us something more conclusive than unpredictability though.

[summicron]

1 hour ago, Lego-Freak said:

I got bored and decided to look up when the CMF series since the first WW one were revealed, and this is what I found:

• WW S1: 27.6.18 (Wednesday) ...

 

Lol ... day of the week too ... you are really bored.

Although I don't remember what day of the week it was, I'd forever remember the exact moment I saw HP CMF1 revealed. Where I was, what I was doing, what time it was. Out of every single CMF ever produced by LEGO, HP are the ones I look forward to the most.

And to think that ... possibly in a few days time ... I get to reexperience such a joyful moment ... :)

[BrickBob Studpants]

I was still a bit bored and decided to delve deeper into the issue by calculating a regression model to predict the reveal date (Bayesian btw, so the small sample size was less of an issue if there happen to be any frequentists around here). I calculated the difference between the reveal and release date for every series between now and Series 11 (turns out it was quite hard to find reliable dates prior to S11 ). My model with day of week, license and position as predictors is kinda sucky, but it still converged. The only valid predictor was day of the week, meaning the later in the week, the earlier the reveal. Whether a series was licensed or not had no bearing on the results and the position (meaning whether it’s the first, second or third series in the year) had a negative influence, i.e. the later the series, the later the reveal. If you insert the values of HP S2 back into the regression formula, the reveal should happen between the 24th of July at the earliest and the 6th of August at the latest (DUH). 

I then calculated another model without the day of week and the estimated date was the 30th of July. Let’s see if that prediction will become true  (I’m not too confident since the second model is considerably weaker and explains almost 20% less variance than the other one)

Yes, I indeed have nothing better to do 

[Brick Guru]

Wow, you must be reeeeaaaaally bored 

[BacktoBricks]

If pictures of DA or the CMF do eventually leak or if they are revealed out of the blue I'll probably do the biggest double-take, because both feel rather like myths now. So well known and yet not actually real or tangible. ?

[broadwaybocaj]

Just now, BacktoBricks said:

If pictures of DA or the CMF do eventually leak or if they are revealed out of the blue I'll probably do the biggest double-take, because both feel rather like myths now. So well known and yet not actually real or tangible. ?

SO TRUE. I feel like I'm in a haze reading this thread. I will definitely not be able to compute when I see it. IF we EVER see it. 

[BacktoBricks]

Just now, broadwaybocaj said:

SO TRUE. I feel like I'm in a haze reading this thread. I will definitely not be able to compute when I see it. IF we EVER see it. 

It will feel like the end of an era when we finally know about them!

[8fifty]

1 hour ago, summicron said:

Although I don't remember what day of the week it was, I'd forever remember the exact moment I saw HP CMF1 revealed. Where I was, what I was doing, what time it was. Out of every single CMF ever produced by LEGO, HP are the ones I look forward to the most.

Me too. It was the day of the world cup we failed so desastrously that we left the tournament at the bottom of the group. I will never forget that ?

8 minutes ago, Lego-Freak said:

I was still a bit bored and decided to delve deeper into the issue by calculating a regression model to predict the reveal date (Bayesian btw, so the small sample size was less of an issue if there happen to be any frequentists around here). I calculated the difference between the reveal and release date for every series between now and Series 11 (turns out it was quite hard to find reliable dates prior to S11 ). My model with day of week, license and position as predictors is kinda sucky, but it still converged. The only valid predictor was day of the week, meaning the later in the week, the earlier the reveal. Whether a series was licensed or not had no bearing on the results and the position (meaning whether it’s the first, second or third series in the year) had a negative influence, i.e. the later the series, the later the reveal. If you insert the values of HP S2 back into the regression formula, the reveal should happen between the 24th of July at the earliest and the 6th of August at the latest (DUH). 

I then calculated another model without the day of week and the estimated date was the 30th of July. Let’s see if that prediction will become true  (I’m not too confident since the second model is considerably weaker and explains almost 20% less variance than the other one)

Yes, I indeed have nothing better to do 

This is the most beautiful thing I've read and heard today  Are you planning to create a decision tree as well?

[BrickBob Studpants]

The only thing that bothers me about the CMF reveal is that we’ve already seen more than half of them  Sure, it was probably the best leak in the history of our hobby, but it also sort of took away half of the magic of this reveal  Still better than the alternative

Just now, 8fifty said:

This is the most beautiful thing I've read and heard today  Are you planning to create a decision tree as well?

Thanks!  Not really, I’m too lazy for that 

[BacktoBricks]

Just now, Lego-Freak said:

The only thing that bothers me about the CMF reveal is that we’ve already seen more than half of them  Sure, it was probably the best leak in the history of our hobby, but it also sort of took away half of the magic of this reveal  Still better than the alternative

Can you imagine if we hadn't seen that though? I think we'd have all have given up by now. ?

[Falconfan1414]

Both will be worth the wait