If Rise of Skywalker fails/under performs, how would that affect LEGO?

[Lego David]

So yeah, Disney lost a lot of the Star Wars fans after The Last Jedi, and that was reflected with Solo's incredible under performance at both the box office, and with toy sales. And the hype for Rise of Skywalker, which releases this December, is close to non-existent. And the early Box Office predictions from experts are also incredibly low. So I am wandering... If Rise of Skywalker ends up failing or under performing, how would that affect LEGO? Star Wars toy sales are very low at the moment, and that affecting LEGO too isn't excluded. After all, the Solo sets seemed to always be on clearance (from what I have heard).

 

What do you think? 

[Flieger]

While Disney has failed to attract new audiences and lost many old fans, it is not like the fans are gone. Lego can still count on them and would focus even more on classics. ...or the new Star Wars content that is coming and might to better than the ST.

Of course nobody will admit it officially, but cancelling Resistance, reviving Clone Wars, and bringing back the Obi Wan-series are clearly course corrections by Disney. With a new wave of Clone Wars (which has a considerable fanbase), the Mandalorian (which has  been well received so far, even hyped), and Obi Wan (which fans wanted for years) Star Wars could regain old strength.

And even if it does not, OT and PT provide ample fallback for Lego. Just think about all the classic TIEs that have not been released in years (Bomber, Interceptor, Defender).

 

And what if that fails to sell? Lego will just negotiate new, better licensing fees. In fact, I would not be surprised if the current weakness of Star Wars and the repeated failure of Disney to provide accurate information for the development of Lego sets had not led to renegotiations already. But unless Disney is completely unreasonable, Lego Star Wars will stay.

[wesker]

I don't think it will have an impact at all. The sets from Rebels sold poorly but that didn't affect the Lego Star Wars brand as a whole. They simply phased the show out from the toy line up and focused their attention on other areas of the Star Wars universe.

[m4st3rt3ch]

SOLO surely wasn't killed by TLJ. There were other factors including a massive campaign by so-called "fans".

[Dosenbrot]

2 hours ago, Lego David said:

So yeah, Disney lost a lot of the Star Wars fans after The Last Jedi

That's more of a very loud minority on the internet (that's even still mad about the film after almost two years later...) and Solo just wasn't as interesting for casual viewers as the main films are. With this mindset you could've thought the prequels were gonna underperform and the LEGO sets fail as well, but that didn't happen, Clone wars sets didn't a fail either so I think this is just a exageration as it is common with Star Wars fans, since it's such a huge group.

[Flieger]

31 minutes ago, Dosenbrot said:

That's more of a very loud minority on the internet (that's even still mad about the film after almost two years later...) and Solo just wasn't as interesting for casual viewers as the main films are. With this mindset you could've thought the prequels were gonna underperform and the LEGO sets fail as well, but that didn't happen, Clone wars sets didn't a fail either so I think this is just a exageration as it is common with Star Wars fans, since it's such a huge group.

That's the point: the toy sales during the PT/TCW era were good. The current toy sales are not.

https://www.jeditemplearchives.com/2019-09-13-is-history-just-repeating-itself/

Casually accepting the media narrative of the 'loud minority' does not change the facts: low toy sales, shows aimed at kids that failed miserably where TCW succeeded, and a Star Wars movie outfight floppng for the first time (when R1 did do well enough despite not being a 'main film').

Edited October 19, 2019 by Flieger

[Daddy_Stardust]

 

26 minutes ago, Flieger said:

That's the point: the toy sales during the PT/TCW era were good. The current toy sales are not.

https://www.jeditemplearchives.com/2019-09-13-is-history-just-repeating-itself/

Casually accepting the media narrative of the 'loud minority' does not change the facts: low toy sales, shows aimed at kids that failed miserably where TCW succeeded, and a Star Wars movie outfight floppng for the first time (when R1 did do well enough despite not being a 'main film').

I think you're looking at it too specifically about the media it's tied-into and not the fact that the world for toys and children has changed massively in the last 20 years and is continuing to change. When I was a kid it was all about "must have" toys and sets, having that massive super set for Christmas was a dream come true. That article you link to seems to completely ignore that fact and think it's all about Star Wars merch reducing in popularity because of the films they're attached to, as opposed to other forms of entertainment just taking over children's interests. What was the last massive range of action figures you can remember kids all going crazy for like Star Wars, GI Joe, He-Man, Thundercats, Turtles, etc. etc? Not to mention how Star Wars has to fight for competition with other sci-fi/fantasy sequel-driven blockbusters like Marvel now that it never had to in decades prior.

These days, my own son is 9, he's really not fussed by his toys and Lego much, plus I don't believe he even owns a single action figure of any intellectual property whatsoever. He would far rather have a video game or digital "experience" than any physical toy. He would much prefer to have v-bucks in Fortnite than a Lego Millennium Falcon, Death Star, police station, fire engine, monorail or whatever. Yeah he *likes* his Lego, but he's never asking for any of it as a present, most of it ends up me buying it to tinker with myself as a de-stressing hobby and then we'll occasionally play together with his Lego sets when he feels like it but for the most part he'd rather be online unlocking skins and spending fictional cryptocurrencies. If given the choice between an X-Wing or the latest Fortnite Battle Pass, irrespective of whether it was related to Empire Strikes Back or The Last Jedi he'd instantly choose the latter. His favourite gift last Christmas was a 2TB hard drive to expand the memory on his PS4. When I was 9 I really really wanted 6394 Lego Metro Park and Service Tower.

Edited October 19, 2019 by Daddy_Stardust

[Lego David]

1 hour ago, Daddy_Stardust said:

I think you're looking at it too specifically about the media it's tied-into and not the fact that the world for toys and children has changed massively in the last 20 years and is continuing to change

Yeah, but while Star Wars toys are struggling to win over kids, Marvel ones seem to be doing a lot better...

[Dosenbrot]

1 hour ago, Flieger said:

Casually accepting the media narrative of the 'loud minority' does not change the facts: low toy sales, shows aimed at kids that failed miserably where TCW succeeded, and a Star Wars movie outfight floppng for the first time (when R1 did do well enough despite not being a 'main film').

This "loud minority" is not the main reason the toy sales are low. They just see a decline in toy sales because kids today like other stuff and go "Evil SJW Disney or whatever is clearly ruining Star Wars".

15 minutes ago, Lego David said:

Yeah, but while Star Wars toys are struggling to win over kids, Marvel ones seem to be doing a lot better...

Marvel with it's MCU is just more relevant for kids currently, naturally sales are much higher. 

[Daddy_Stardust]

21 minutes ago, Lego David said:

Yeah, but while Star Wars toys are struggling to win over kids, Marvel ones seem to be doing a lot better...

The Star Wars movies are a 40+ year legacy with vintage films in the series that are *just old* to many kids; side burns, plastic models, moustaches, matte paintings, slow pacing - my boy loved Rogue One but really really struggled to sit through Empire Strikes Back, he even finds Raiders of the Lost Ark incredibly dull. I know Marvel comics have been around for years, but the current movies are a new contemporary product for this generation of kids. These kids are growing up being wowed by seeing The Avengers or whatever as their first exposure to a blockbuster franchise, as opposed to a new Star Wars film where they have to be familiar with a bunch of the dad's old movies to truly "get it". Yes Star Wars is still big, so are the Rolling Stones, but just like the Rolling Stones you can't expect new material and merchandise to resonate in the same way with the younger generation either.

Edited October 19, 2019 by Daddy_Stardust

[Flieger]

39 minutes ago, Dosenbrot said:

This "loud minority" is not the main reason the toy sales are low. They just see a decline in toy sales because kids today like other stuff and go "Evil SJW Disney or whatever is clearly ruining Star Wars".

Of course the supposed 'loud minority', which a few (not-so-silent) people want to see, cannot be not the reason for low toy sales. The reason is simple, Disney failed to attract new, younger audiences like TCW did back then. Rebels and Resistance were clearly aimed at younger audiences and failed to attract them. You cannot sell toys of your stuff to kids when the kids do not care about your stuff in the first place. I am a teacher, and Star Wars is not a thing for them. References to Marvel movies work, but not Star Wars. Not the movie, not the shows, and obviously not the toys. So no sales to them, digital or otherwise.

Btw., I did not say anything about SJWs, but hey, good to know where you stand.

 

36 minutes ago, Daddy_Stardust said:

 Yes Star Wars is still big, so are the Rolling Stones, but just like the Rolling Stones you can't expect new material and merchandise to resonate in the same way with the younger generation either.

Obviously TCW did resonate with younger people back then who had never seen Star Wars before, and it did so in a digitalized world. Just because Disney failed with Rebels and Resistance does not mean it is impossible.

But I agree, the main problem is not whether or not kids play with classic toys like action figures or Lego. The main problem is kids do not care about Star Wars as much as afols did when they were young. And that is Disney’s fault. That is why, e.g., Hasbro decided and publicly announced (!) not to produce any Resistance S2 toys in the first place: kids do not want it, adults do not want it.

Once you have a product that attracts young audiences we can discuss what the impact of gaming, online-media etc. is. But we are still at step one: get kids interested in Star Wars.

Edited October 19, 2019 by Flieger

[Dosenbrot]

24 minutes ago, Flieger said:

Btw., I did not say anything about SJWs, but hey, good to know where you stand.

Please don't take this the wrong way, I was more referencing those youtubers with questionable political beliefs that still to this day bash TLJ/Disney. 

No offense to you, I'm just sick of those people.  

[jdubbs]

7 hours ago, Lego David said:

What do you think? 

I think you've now posted back-to-back threads that seem pretty clickbaity to me... incendiary, provocative questions based on faulty suppositions masquerading as "evidence" that seem designed solely to rile people up, flame each other, and contribute to the false narrative that Star Wars is doomed. I find the whole thing pretty tiresome.

[G59]

9 hours ago, Lego David said:

So yeah, Disney lost a lot of the Star Wars fans after The Last Jedi, and that was reflected with Solo's incredible under performance at both the box office, and with toy sales. And the hype for Rise of Skywalker, which releases this December, is close to non-existent. And the early Box Office predictions from experts are also incredibly low. So I am wandering... If Rise of Skywalker ends up failing or under performing, how would that affect LEGO? Star Wars toy sales are very low at the moment, and that affecting LEGO too isn't excluded. After all, the Solo sets seemed to always be on clearance (from what I have heard).

 

What do you think? 

Solo underperformed because it's an absolute terrible bad movie... where TLJ is bad.

[Terrasher]

I love the OT, like the PT, and don't care for the ST. I won't watch episode 8 unless episode 9 is overwhelmingly well received, but I'm still interested by sets from episodes 4, 5 & 6. I guess that if 9 underperforms, TLG will simply allocate less sets for that movie and focus on other episodes and shows. Star Wars is successful enough to still survive on the glory of previous films instead of depending on how the new movies will perform.

[Sucram]

It wont affect Lego at all, plus the film will make either very close to a billion or slightly over. Not as terrible as Solo's 350m but not as good as Last Jedi 1.3 billion or TFA's 2 billion. This is assuming the film is moderately well received which I have a feeling will be the case considering the obvious course corrections and fan service.

[AManofNoConsequence]

Firstly, from my observations I'm seriously doubting your claim that there's no hype. Secondly, Solo underperformed due to a lackluster marketting campaign, a very troubled and costly production and from a critical persepective being the weakest film since TFA, which I kinda agree with. As for the Lego, Star Wars is still a top performer, from both the 2018 annual results and according to the report in September about the first half of the years admidst profits somewhat dropping which leads into my final point. Times have changed and as previously mentioned toys aren't selling as well as they used to across the board with kids looking to digital stuff/games like Fortnite, with Lego even getting to try that outlet with Boost (I think) and Hidden Side, as well as having strong... Competitors isn't really the word with Marvel cause Disney ownership, Rivalry maybe? Anywho, what I'm saying is there are other brands now that have been built up.

Basically, I don't think there's anything to worry about. Lego Star Wars will still go on.

[Sucram]

38 minutes ago, AManofNoConsequence said:

Firstly, from my observations I'm seriously doubting your claim that there's no hype. Secondly, Solo underperformed due to a lackluster marketting campaign, a very troubled and costly production and from a critical persepective being the weakest film since TFA, which I kinda agree with. As for the Lego, Star Wars is still a top performer, from both the 2018 annual results and according to the report in September about the first half of the years admidst profits somewhat dropping which leads into my final point. Times have changed and as previously mentioned toys aren't selling as well as they used to across the board with kids looking to digital stuff/games like Fortnite, with Lego even getting to try that outlet with Boost (I think) and Hidden Side, as well as having strong... Competitors isn't really the word with Marvel cause Disney ownership, Rivalry maybe? Anywho, what I'm saying is there are other brands now that have been built up.

Basically, I don't think there's anything to worry about. Lego Star Wars will still go on.

Last jedi was absolutely 100 percent a factor in Solo's performance. It wasnt the main factor, but it was a factor. It doesnt help that Solo came out only a few months after TLJ. Also Rogue One is actually the weakest Disney film

[AManofNoConsequence]

A factor, yes, but personally I don't think it was a notable one compared to the other 3. As for Rogue One, I was going off the critical response compared to the prior 3, I wasn't trying to tread on anyone's toes here even if it isn't my cup of tea.

Edited October 19, 2019 by AManofNoConsequence

[Flieger]

4 minutes ago, AManofNoConsequence said:

A factor, yes, but personally I don't think it was a notable one compared to the other 3. As for Rogue One, I was going off the critical response compared to the prior 3, I wasn't trying to tread on anyone's toes here even if it isn't my cup of tea.

Not long ago I started a topic exploring if (dis-)liking a movie influences your decision purchase a set. I found it somewhat surprising how many people said they do not care as long as the set was good.

The Solo sets were well done for the most part, and some of the minifigs were downright amazing, even if the movie was not. (I personally liked Solo quite a bit, and I am angry about the wasted potential). The effort Lego put into the Solo sets was not small, considering the number of new moulds e.g. (more than for TlJ). Yet I am not sure how well the Solo sets sold.

 

6 hours ago, Dosenbrot said:

Please don't take this the wrong way, I was more referencing those youtubers with questionable political beliefs that still to this day bash TLJ/Disney. 

No offense to you, I'm just sick of those people.  

You have to keep in mind Star Wars has become political. I do not want to blame anyone for that, but I do not want those politics to enter a discussion on toys either. Although I do have strong opinions on the matter I do not think any good would come out of such a discussion in a Lego forum.

[Sucram]

4 minutes ago, Flieger said:

Not long ago I started a topic exploring if (dis-)liking a movie influences your decision purchase a set. I found it somewhat surprising how many people said they do not care as long as the set was good.

The Solo sets were well done for the most part, and some of the minifigs were downright amazing, even if the movie was not. (I personally liked Solo quite a bit, and I am angry about the wasted potential). The effort Lego put into the Solo sets was not small, considering the number of new moulds e.g. (more than for TlJ). Yet I am not sure how well the Solo sets sold.

 

You have to keep in mind Star Wars has become political. I do not want to blame anyone for that, but I do not want those politics to enter a discussion on toys either. Although I do have strong opinions on the matter I do not think any good would come out of such a discussion in a Lego forum.

Star Wars has not 'become political.' Just because it has a diverse cast does not mean its political.

[Gremer2]

Worst case scenario, we have a repeat of Solo and the sets are heavily discounted and the movie isn't revisited. I doubt that TROS bombing will cause any massive change for Lego and Star Wars sells well enough that it'll stick around.

[Flieger]

56 minutes ago, LEGODrongo01 said:

Star Wars has not 'become political.' Just because it has a diverse cast does not mean its political.

At least the second part of your post was correct. There are other factors than the cast that made it political.

[Sucram]

12 minutes ago, Flieger said:

At least the second part of your post was correct. There are other factors than the cast that made it political.

The saving the animals scene from TLJ comes to mind, and thats about all I can think of

[Flieger]

19 minutes ago, LEGODrongo01 said:

The saving the animals scene from TLJ comes to mind, and thats about all I can think of

Ok, good for you. However, most people are not as oblivious as you are, regardless of their political views.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/19/last-jedi-left-wing-jeremy-corbyn-star-wars-champion-grassroots

https://www.filminquiry.com/last-jedi-failure-masculinity/

https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/12/star-wars-last-jedi-laura-dern-admiral-holdo-listen-to-women

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/liberal-identity-politics-has-ruined-star-wars-fanboys/

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/rotten-tomatoes-last-jedi-ratings-bots_n_5a38cb78e4b0860bf4aab5b1

https://www.publicmedievalist.com/last-jedi-fox/