Lego David

Unpopular Opinions about LEGO

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Hmm I just read through the entire thread haha, it was a fascinating read. I don't really have anything new to add but it was interesting to see peoples opinion. I guess I am part of team Yellows > Fleshies (I don't hate Fleshies and might even use them for some mocs in the future but I would definitely have preferred if Lego had stuck to Yellows only).

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Posted (edited)

Seeing as trains aren’t a bulk of LEGO’s sales, if they lose that to competitors, they’ll be fine. Especially now with this “adults welcome” campaign & expanding their image, they’re probably gaining a lot of new customers. Considering we’re also a small percentage of their sales & I’m not sure of the number of kids scouring the Internet for off brand train items. 

They did grow to be the #1 toy manufacturer in recent years...

Edited by Vindicare

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1 minute ago, Vindicare said:

Seeing as trains aren’t a bulk of LEGO’s sales, if they lose that to competitors, they’ll be fine. Especially now with this “adults welcome” campaign & expanding their image, they’re probably gaining a lot of new customers. Considering we’re also a small percentage of their sales & I’m not sure of the number of kids scouring the Internet for off brand train items. 

They did grow to be the #1 toy manufacturer in recent years...

Yo Vindi! Its been ages since we last spoke. 

Yeah I totally agree. I think that was another one of my unpopular opinions about Lego along with me stating that trains sold by City should be push along like all the other Lego trains are. Given that they aren't popular anyways, I doubt it would matter. 

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The main reason Bricklink can offer so many kinds of parts for so little money is that there are thousands of sellers, many of who aren't in it as a full-time profit-oriented business but rather hobbyists who do it to support their hobby. So basically they donate their time for the benefit of the buyer and would turn a huge loss if they calculated a proper value for their time. TLG or any other large, profit-oriented company cannot do such a thing as they'd have to pay salaries to their employees, invest in and maintain the machinery and so on. The only reason TLG can produce so many sets and still turn profit is that they do a lot of planning in the production of the bricks and they have state of the art automated machinery to do things like counting parts. Thousands of identical sets are much easier to produce than having constant stream of custom orders which were all different.

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I think the unpopular views here are getting mixed together, so let's start again.

Lego will be put under increasing pressure in two different directions.

1) Competing sets from other manufacturers, as well designed as Lego, parts as good quality, same price or even cheaper. There is only so much of this sort of competition that a brand name can withstand. The toy world is littered with dead brands that once looked unassailable.

2) Comprehensive on-demand brick service. Of course this won't be cheaper than buying a set but how long would it take to part out an order in a massive state-of-the-art warehouse? One hour per 500 bricks? Two hours? I can think of plenty of ways of making this more efficient. Divide the order between different parts of the warehouse, barcode the bags and gather them together. Expected weight of bags gives you easy QC. Lego doesn't do this because Lego doesn't want to do this. The culture of the company is to create boxed sets that look nice on shelves. But the price of those boxed sets isn't just the bricks, it is also design, logistics, retailers cut. The economics of this versus a direct B2C brick service look interesting.

So what if you could choose any design you wanted from somewhere like Rebrickable [the plans which are certified available parts only] and at the click of a button, for a price that is the same as a Lego set would have been, or just a little bit higher, they are delivered to your door? Or upload your own plans? Suddenly you have total freedom and control of your building bricks world. I'm not saying that these problems are solvable, but Lego trying and failing is not evidence that it cannot be done. If someone else tries it and gets it to work, then that is another source of pressure for Lego [and the end of Bricklink except for rare/secondhand/out of production parts].

Consumer-driven flexibility is the way the world is going, like it or not.

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On 3/5/2021 at 3:23 AM, Flak Maniak said:

Sure, if you want "exactly set X", you might pay a lot, because there are probably SOME rare parts in that set. But if you just want bulk parts, and you buy opportunistically... Then BrickLink is very cheap. Sure, you might think "Hmm, part X in color A might be nice" and then find that it's expensive. But if you have vague ideas like "I want to do castle-ish builds in colors ABC", and then just go on BL and look at some of the big sellers... You are going to spend a lot of money, but you are gonna get a LOT of parts for your dollar.

So what is a rare part? Are 2x4 tiles rare? Is white a rare colour?

I have just looked up 2x4 white tiles on Bricklink, any condition, quantity 12.

Just 32 UK sellers can fulfil this, with a price starting at 20 pence each. Ouch.

So, I go for 24 2x2 tiles instead, 5 pence each, that's better.

Using Bricklink, if there is a specific build in mind, is a constant battle of wits. First with the Lego colour gaps. As soon as you want clips and headlight bricks then any build with rarer colours, such as dark green or dark red, becomes a game of 3D chess. Second, the frequent unexpected high prices for those parts that are available. Yes, you end up changing colours and the build, and you end up adapting the design to what is available and affordable, but that sucks away at design time, and there are always nasty surprises. There is a fun element to going into battle with Bricklink, and you quickly learn design troublespots to avoid, but I would rather my tombstone said 'designed some really nice MOCs' than 'learnt the ins and outs of Bricklink thoroughly'.

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1 hour ago, Tube Map Central said:

1) Competing sets from other manufacturers, as well designed as Lego, parts as good quality, same price or even cheaper. There is only so much of this sort of competition that a brand name can withstand. The toy world is littered with dead brands that once looked unassailable.

2) Comprehensive on-demand brick service.

 

1) The main problem with toys is that interests change over time and companies cannot adapt to the same extent. Lego will not grow at the same rate or will even shrink - I agree with that, but until now, there is not a single other company that shows enough engagement to realy compete with Lego. Some people say things like "the chinese are learning fast", but if I take a look at the past few years: There is no improvement. The first big Cada set is now two years old and what changed? They stopped designing larger models by themselves...

Another problem is: Often there is fast and tough competition from China, who ride on the 'advertising wave' of another company. Result: The 'original' companies cannot keep up and close -> Competitors are unwilling to invest and lose interest -> the whole market is dead.

2) I thought the something similar. If there were such a service that would change a lot. But it would destroy the market. Almost every model can and will be reverse engineered, there will be almost no reason to buy instructions... And companies will produce even more special parts to make sure you have to buy the set.

But yes, the whole concept of "one system, every one can build everything and you do not have to pay for instructions" does not work anymore if there are enough competitors.

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Can you both knock it off? We are supposed to be adults on this forum. I am going to extract your nonsense arguments and ask you to behave in a civil manner. 

While this is not an excellent thread for being civil as a whole, can personal arguments be kept out of it.

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Some of these posts made me LOL!!!  My unpopular opinions are... 

1) It has been said already, but I also just can't stand the overly detailed MOCs.  You know the ones that look like somebody swallowed a ton of small plates, tiles, and foliage...  And then vomited them up over their entire MOC.  So... every building looks like it is about to fall apart, every roof is leaky, and grassy areas look like the deep jungle where no minifig could ever walk without a machete...  These are often the most well received MOCs in our hobby.  

This is commonplace in the historic forum.  I know these buildings are supposed to be historic.  But... back when they were built shouldn't those structures be relatively new?  Therefore, IMHO every building shouldn't look like a ruin.  It is like Monty python...  "Hey Dennis, there's some lovely filth over here."  "How do you know he's a king?  He hasn't got shit all over him!"  The common perception that the dark ages were covered in mud is not very realistic.  Don't get me wrong, I think the technic is attractive, if people use it within some limits.  Sometimes a little is enough.

2) I didn't think this was unpopular, but after reading this thread?  People that think AFOLs purchasing power does not have an effect on TLG are wrong.  Because it does.  It really does.  Just talked with my LEGO store manager friend this week.  What products won't stay on the shelves?  It isn't Ninjago, or monkey kid, Disney, or DC. It is the modulars, the ideas, the large creator sets.  And in kids themes it isn't the small batman sets but the $200 batwing that they can't keep in stock.  She told me that it is the adults making thousand dollar purchases on a daily basis that has led to their performance and may be making up half of their sales for the last year or so.  Then I looked at the shelf space.  A good half of the store's shelf space was dedicated to adults.  I know LEGO stores cater to adults more than other stores, but in my experience I found this significant and a trend over the years.   
 

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11 hours ago, Tube Map Central said:

I think the unpopular views here are getting mixed together, so let's start again.

Lego will be put under increasing pressure in two different directions.

1) Competing sets from other manufacturers, as well designed as Lego, parts as good quality, same price or even cheaper. There is only so much of this sort of competition that a brand name can withstand. The toy world is littered with dead brands that once looked unassailable.

2) Comprehensive on-demand brick service. Of course this won't be cheaper than buying a set but how long would it take to part out an order in a massive state-of-the-art warehouse? One hour per 500 bricks? Two hours? I can think of plenty of ways of making this more efficient. Divide the order between different parts of the warehouse, barcode the bags and gather them together. Expected weight of bags gives you easy QC. Lego doesn't do this because Lego doesn't want to do this. The culture of the company is to create boxed sets that look nice on shelves. But the price of those boxed sets isn't just the bricks, it is also design, logistics, retailers cut. The economics of this versus a direct B2C brick service look interesting.

So what if you could choose any design you wanted from somewhere like Rebrickable [the plans which are certified available parts only] and at the click of a button, for a price that is the same as a Lego set would have been, or just a little bit higher, they are delivered to your door? Or upload your own plans? Suddenly you have total freedom and control of your building bricks world. I'm not saying that these problems are solvable, but Lego trying and failing is not evidence that it cannot be done. If someone else tries it and gets it to work, then that is another source of pressure for Lego [and the end of Bricklink except for rare/secondhand/out of production parts].

Consumer-driven flexibility is the way the world is going, like it or not.

LEGO already did this and failed. And that wasn't just a little bit more expensive than the equivalent set price. Real sets have economies of scale savings. Picking individual MOCs does not.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Tube Map Central said:

) Competing sets from other manufacturers, as well designed as Lego, parts as good quality, same price or even cheaper. There is only so much of this sort of competition that a brand name can withstand. The toy world is littered with dead brands that once looked unassailable

I don't think that Lego will be replaced in the market, at least not before the end of this century. The reason is that competitor brands aren't received well by the majority of consumers. Regardless of how good quality other brands are, consumers see them as 'real Lego' or 'fake Lego'. Third party parts, despite their good quality, acceptance and enhancement to official Lego products they provide, most non-AFOL consumers won't understand and purchase. Furthermore, most consumers will mistakenly call anything that looks like Lego 'Lego', and I don't think any clone brand, besides maybe Megablocks, has universal exposure.

While some companies do have products that appeal to AFOL such as better train sets, AFOLs are still a minority as consumers and train fans are only a small, though significant, group. Those who will wish to purchase clone brands over MOcing are gain a minority within that minority, and for many consumers what Lego offers is enough.

In terms of an on-demand brick service, I don't think it would be unrealistic. I cannot see it happening anytime soon, but as the AFOL market grows, it could happen, maybe not worldwide or to everywhere, but in some places it may one day be economical.

Edited by Stuartn

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I know that TLG could build a system that would automatically fill custom orders similarly to how they fill sets.  This would reduce labor making PAB more efficient and profitable.  However, we are talking about a huge investment in making space for all of the parts and machinery capable of accurately counting and packaging those parts.  I have little doubt it could be done and make a profit at bricklink like prices.  The big question would be how long would it take to recapture the huge capital investment in land, buildings, machinery, etc? 

On the other hand this would undermine Bricklink, which they own.  So I guess why not make a small profit on the resale of your own goods every time they cycle through Bricklink, and receive a ton of free labor from your own customers.  Like many companies it may just be easier to invest their money in the markets, acquiring other companies, and earn money on their investments.  Money making money... instead of spending a ton on such an adventure.

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1 hour ago, DaleDVM said:

On the other hand this would undermine Bricklink, which they own.

I would love to know how much they paid for Bricklink. I imagine the price was tiny as a % of total operations. 

So I don't imagine worrying about undermining or cannibalizing BL profits would have much effect on other choices they make going forward. 

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18 hours ago, Stuartn said:

I don't think that Lego will be replaced in the market, at least not before the end of this century. The reason is that competitor brands aren't received well by the majority of consumers. Regardless of how good quality other brands are, consumers see them as 'real Lego' or 'fake Lego'. Third party parts, despite their good quality, acceptance and enhancement to official Lego products they provide, most non-AFOL consumers won't understand and purchase. Furthermore, most consumers will mistakenly call anything that looks like Lego 'Lego', and I don't think any clone brand, besides maybe Megablocks, has universal exposure.

I wouldn't take it for granted! 

A couple of years ago I would have dismissed clone brands entirely. Poor man's bricks with bad quality, rip-off designs, low-price being the only incentive. Ofc I never bought any of these because why would I? I don't remember anyone talking positively about them either.

Fast forward a couple of years and things have already changed dramatically. While I cant say from my own experience reliable sources confirm the quality has improved - so much that it can be considered to be on par with lego in many regards. As far as designs go - it appears you have western designers who have their sets produced in china and sell under their own label in Europe (for example). The sets themselves are aimed at adults and can be considered moc-level design -  for a quarter/third of the lego price. Chinese companies also design their own sets which arent half-bad either. And like i said, reliable sources promote those sets to a huge audience online. That market will be growing!

Granted many people are nostalgic and wont accept anything but lego - but kids arent born with nostalgia. Imo its just a matter of time until clone brands will produce their own original themes with cool tv shows and video/mobile games that kids will want and parents will be happy to buy - because it comes at half the lego price or even less.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Poco Lypso said:

I wouldn't take it for granted! 

A couple of years ago I would have dismissed clone brands entirely. Poor man's bricks with bad quality, rip-off designs, low-price being the only incentive. Ofc I never bought any of these because why would I? I don't remember anyone talking positively about them either.

Fast forward a couple of years and things have already changed dramatically. While I cant say from my own experience reliable sources confirm the quality has improved - so much that it can be considered to be on par with lego in many regards. As far as designs go - it appears you have western designers who have their sets produced in china and sell under their own label in Europe (for example). The sets themselves are aimed at adults and can be considered moc-level design -  for a quarter/third of the lego price. Chinese companies also design their own sets which arent half-bad either. And like i said, reliable sources promote those sets to a huge audience online. That market will be growing!

Granted many people are nostalgic and wont accept anything but lego - but kids arent born with nostalgia. Imo its just a matter of time until clone brands will produce their own original themes with cool tv shows and video/mobile games that kids will want and parents will be happy to buy - because it comes at half the lego price or even less.

You're not wrong, but I'm expecting the clone brand prices to increase as their popularity does, and Lego still has an unmistakable, highly regarded brand which is worth a lot. This kind of thing also seemed to happen with smartphones, few years ago giants like Apple and Samsung dominated the market but their newest phones tended to be really expensive. Then Chinese brands like Oneplus began to make phones that were not exactly equal to the flagship models of Apple and Samsung, but they were still really good phones for much lower price. Then, couple of years later, the phones are still nice but price has increased a lot and now they are just one more brand in the market. If some clone brand will also gain significant market share in the construction toy market, they have to deliver everything TLG does - quality product, interesting themes, tv-shows and games to go with the toy and all that - and those won't come for free, they have to increase prices. Their prices are low now, but that won't be the case forever. I'm guessing that Lego stays the market leader with the highest regarded brand and most expensive sets, but others won't be far behind.

On the other hand, any soft drink company can deliver a product easily equal to Coca Cola for less money but somehow Coca Cola is still very big and highly regarded brand. Pepsi is almost as big though, even if they have a carefully cultivated underdog image, but still many people strongly prefer Coca Cola, and it's not for the taste. Brand loyalty is a real thing and many companies depend on it for survival.

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35 minutes ago, howitzer said:

and it's not for the taste.

Speak for yourself! :pir-wench:

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25 minutes ago, howitzer said:

You're not wrong, but I'm expecting the clone brand prices to increase as their popularity does, and Lego still has an unmistakable, highly regarded brand which is worth a lot. This kind of thing also seemed to happen with smartphones, few years ago giants like Apple and Samsung dominated the market but their newest phones tended to be really expensive. Then Chinese brands like Oneplus began to make phones that were not exactly equal to the flagship models of Apple and Samsung, but they were still really good phones for much lower price. Then, couple of years later, the phones are still nice but price has increased a lot and now they are just one more brand in the market. If some clone brand will also gain significant market share in the construction toy market, they have to deliver everything TLG does - quality product, interesting themes, tv-shows and games to go with the toy and all that - and those won't come for free, they have to increase prices. Their prices are low now, but that won't be the case forever. I'm guessing that Lego stays the market leader with the highest regarded brand and most expensive sets, but others won't be far behind.

On the other hand, any soft drink company can deliver a product easily equal to Coca Cola for less money but somehow Coca Cola is still very big and highly regarded brand. Pepsi is almost as big though, even if they have a carefully cultivated underdog image, but still many people strongly prefer Coca Cola, and it's not for the taste. Brand loyalty is a real thing and many companies depend on it for survival.

Indeed! The major difference for me is the minifigs - there may be a few interestings sets here and there but they dont come with the black falcons for example:). I dont generally tend to buy sets for display purposes and will disassemble any set with time - so no selling point for me there. Also, community is a big thing, which I believe clone brands will struggle with. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Poco Lypso said:

The major difference for me is the minifigs

Am I right in thinking that Lego have a trademark on the specific design of the minifigure that prevents other companies from directly copying? As long as a protection like that is in effect, Lego won't fall behind the pack imo. 

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Posted (edited)
On 3/3/2021 at 10:55 AM, Tube Map Central said:

When I say cheap for a brick service, I really just mean cheaper than Bricklink, which wouldn't be difficult. Lego might have failed to get it to work, but that is not the be-all and end-all of everything forever more. Times change and so does technology. When you buy a Lego set, you pay for design costs, a brick service would not carry this overhead. If any manufacturer can crack this cost-effectively, then TLG are in trouble, because the consumer takes control of design, and Lego are just another brick manufacturer.

That's not on LEGO, though, that's on re-sellers.  BL is generally cheaper than Bricks and Pieces and has a much wider selection, if there's a comparison to be made between a clone brand selling pieces and LEGO, it would be between Bricks and Pieces and whatever other service exist.  

On 3/4/2021 at 3:46 AM, MAB said:

It is typically about two times RRP, but that doesn't mean you will make twice RRP if you part a set out. If you are very early, it might be three times RRP but that is often because newly released minifigures go fro crazy amounts to start with and so have an high six month average price for the first few months, and it takes obviously at least six months for any new release bias to be removed from six month averages.

But you have to remember very few sets have 100% desirable parts. Many parts simply do not sell. Even if priced very cheaply, some parts have years worth of stock on BL (measured as qty available / six month sales).

Plus parting out sets and then picking parts for orders is slow work. It is not hard work, but it is time consuming.

Agree.  Take the Cantina, for example.  When that thing first came out (no idea if it's back in stock, actually), you could've probably parted it out for more than it was worth, because the figures plus the Dewback alone were like $250.  However, nobody was going to seriously part it out via Bricklink, they were just buying the figures alone because they didn't want to spend $350 to get Ponda Baba or whatever.  Like you said, I'd bet that some people buying multiples of it to part out have sold the figures quickly, but have a bunch of random tan tiles and plates laying around still unsold after six months.  

I think the other things being forgotten in this whole "LEGO will fail" debate is that 

1) LEGO has licensing power and a lot of it.  They've also shown that they have the financial resources and ability to overtake other companies and snag their licenses.  I forgot which brand was doing Minions stuff a year ago, now that's a LEGO license.  Same deal with Mario, there was K'Nex Mario Kart stuff, now LEGO has Nintendo.  There is a less than zero chance that any random clone brand can swoop in and steal Star Wars or Disney or Nintendo or whomever and give them enough money to pull away from LEGO and take a license with them.  The only companies that could would be another major toy manufacturer, like Mattel or Hasbro, and that's also unlikely for a couple of reasons.  They're already successful at what they do and the brands they make, why take a risk and try to undercut LEGO when there's a big question mark associated with that, and also, LEGO isn't in the same spheres as them.  Toy bricks and Hot Wheels cars or Paw Patrol toys aren't really the same market.  If someone buys a toy from a Mattel/Hasbro brand, it's not necessarily cutting into LEGO's sales, in the same way that person buying a $40 LEGO set isn't really cutting into Mattel or Hasbro's sales.  The only exceptions I can think of are licensed action figures that LEGO also has the license for, and maybe Barbie/Friends undercutting each other.  I know Hasbro has Kreo but I don't think they're going to suddenly ramp up production and divert a ton of financial resources to that.

2) LEGO has way more brand goodwill than any other building block company, and that goes a long way.  "Minifigure" is pretty much part of anyone younger than 25's vernacular at this point, there are literal brick and mortar storefronts opening just to resell LEGO (in an age when brick and mortar stores is apparently a contracting industry), and stores like Target and Walmart can't keep certain super popular sets on the shelves.  I don't think anyone can come in, even if they offered the same brand quality, including customer service and everything, at a lower price (which I kind of doubt), because LEGO has established such a brand dominance.  

Edited by Kit Figsto

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49 minutes ago, Alexandrina said:

Am I right in thinking that Lego have a trademark on the specific design of the minifigure that prevents other companies from directly copying? As long as a protection like that is in effect, Lego won't fall behind the pack imo. 

Indeed they have! Falling behind the pack prolly wont ever happen but market share is important especially for a big company such as lego.

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3 hours ago, Poco Lypso said:

As far as designs go - it appears you have western designers who have their sets produced in china and sell under their own label in Europe (for example). The sets themselves are aimed at adults and can be considered moc-level design -  for a quarter/third of the lego price.

Unfortunately the reason that the design of these clone brands have reached "Moc-level" because a majority of them are just MOCs stolen from AOFLs. I think its still pretty rare that designers will willingly work with these companies as most of the time they get no credit or profit from these clone brick manufactures. I can only think of one manufacture that puts the effort into making their own designs (Sembo). Even if the brick quality manages to match real Lego, I don't think I could ever bring myself to support these companies because of how scummy they can be to the Lego community. 

 

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1 hour ago, Poco Lypso said:

Indeed they have! Falling behind the pack prolly wont ever happen but market share is important especially for a big company such as lego.

The other thing that they have going is that, for whatever reason, every other building brick brand's figures that I've had experience with don't hold together as well as minifigures.  I think part of it is that they tend to make their figures more pose-able, which means you can display them better, but when it comes to play, they seem to have parts come off a bit more. 

I have a handful of the OYO sports figures, which is an interesting case of a brand that did have some major licensing and was seemingly everywhere for a while, at least in the US, then just dropped off the face of the Earth a couple of years ago.  While they're cool as a sports fan and do display nicely, the hands aren't as sturdily attached and some pieces, like a helmet visor, for example, don't stay in as tightly as do minifigure parts.

A quick Google search gives me a paywalled article that LEGO sued them like a year or two ago, I guess for using the term "minifigure" and it seems they may have lost one of their licenses a year or so before that too, which was probably a big factor as well.  Can't read the article, though, so not certain.

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42 minutes ago, MuscoviteSandwich said:

Unfortunately the reason that the design of these clone brands have reached "Moc-level" because a majority of them are just MOCs stolen from AOFLs. I think its still pretty rare that designers will willingly work with these companies as most of the time they get no credit or profit from these clone brick manufactures. I can only think of one manufacture that puts the effort into making their own designs (Sembo). Even if the brick quality manages to match real Lego, I don't think I could ever bring myself to support these companies because of how scummy they can be to the Lego community. 

 

I heard about those cases, too. I referred to a completely different scenario though.

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re: clone brands

Until those brands are sold in Target/Walmart/TRU(canada!)/other major retail chains, they are no competition to Lego. While some people looking for a DEAL will buy a clone set online, 99% of people looking for a "construction toy" will just buy it in store. So its Lego or Mega Construx or nothing (and honestly, Mega has gotten much better in recent years, I've bought all their He-Man stuff). But even Mega with their major toy company owner (Mattel) and very good quality nowadays, still only has 4 feet in Target when Lego has 10 times that (though I haven't counted).

Until those clone brands get major retail presence in the US and the EU, they are just not a thread to LEGO at all.

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