Hinckley

The Forest 3 Mafia Day Three—Up In the Air

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3 hours ago, Leevi Lion said:

I guess they twiddle their thumbs and complain?  The only reason I think that maybe they're alternating the kill and we have a vig is that Braxton really doesn't make much sense as a night kill for either team unless they knew something about his role.  He could have easily been lynched on Day 2.  Now the fact that Myrtle claimed to be a day time inventor means that it's entirely possible the scum have a day time role as well, so it's possible, but it still seems pretty unlikely.  I suppose Braxton's killer could've been an SK trying to look like a vig.

A vig kill feels like the most likely option for Braxton. I don’t understand why scum would want to get rid of a Villager who was under scrutiny already.  

 

1 hour ago, Ronan Rabbit said:

My position on Huxley is that I don't think we have enough to know whether he is actually busy or scum flying under the radar.  Why do I have to have a definitive view on whether or not he is scum?  I'm not defending him, I'm saying I don't know.   .

I’m deliberating on Huxley. Whatever alignment he is he’s of no help to them. I feel it’s better to focus on the players who are active so they can respond anyway. Going back to my earlier comment Infeel Haydn Hippo was quick to try and disprove what Parrot was saying about Anti-Momster/Anti-Hellion pretty quickly and I’m not sure I like that. Is he trying to hide something? 

I’ve been theorising Parrot might have been a bomb. Which would make Pashca the Vig. Or visa versa (Parrot was the Vig and Pashca was the bomb) but if that’s the case then why didn’t the scum kill last night? It’s all very confusing. Would anyone like a Taco?

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13 hours ago, Whitby Walrus said:

I agree. I feel Brewer seems to react with genuine confusion whilst Haydn Hippo tried to spin it into sounding scummy even though he didn't understand what Parrot had fully said.

I think you have your clauses mixed up there.

I totally did not understand what the parrot meant by saying some people are more anti-monster. I could not think of a town reason to say that, though clearly in hindsight there must be one. And preferring to posit his scumminess rather than my failure of imagination, I strongly called him out.

His response of do not worry about it served only to make me more worried. I am not privy to any forms of external communication, and all I could see in Pierots reply was the suggestion that he was involved in some external communication. 

It was not me spinning it to sound scummy, it already sounded scummy. Turns out it was not, but that's how it sounded. The fact that there are animals here that assume external communication, thinking "we do it, everyone else is too" is going to be a useful indicator going forward.

11 hours ago, Ronan Rabbit said:

I don't really follow the logic as to why you are questioning Ember over this.  I read this as Ember assuming there are three per scum team while Pierot has assumed there were two per team.  Either is possible in my view.   

You really do not understand why this should be questioned?

I do not know what size the scum teams are. I do know that there are animals out there that do know. Occasionally those animals may forget that we do not know and say things that reveal they have more knowledge than us. This is scum hunting 101. Occasionally those animals will try to guess what everyone is thinking so they can think the same way too and keep cover as one of us. But that covering occasionally slips as well.

For me, it is perfectly reasonable for the bunny to raise this with him. It is your confusion which is either a failure of imagination (which I totally understand, see above) or is an indication that you've assumed something about how villagers think and what we know.

On 2 May 2019 at 7:44 AM, Brewer Bunny said:

Well this sucks. Even worse it seems that Myrtle was telling the truth and now we just lost our inventor. 

Final Vote Tally

Braxton Bear: 7 (Haydn Hippo, Myrtle Monkey, Gracie Goat, Ronan Rabbit, Caldwell Crocodile, Huxley Horse, Brewer Bunny)
Haydn Hippo: 2 (Braxton Bear, Bennett Bulldog)
Myrtle Monkey: 3 (Leevi Lion. Whitby Walrus, Cleo Cow)
Huxley Horse: 2 (Pascha Poodle, Pierot Parrot)
Gracie Goat: 1 (Ember Elephant)
Non-voters: 0

Myrtle Monkey: 7 (Pierot Parrot, Ember Elephant, Whitby Walrus, Gracie Goat, Ronan Rabbit, Leevi Lion, Huxley Horse)
Ronan Rabbit: 1 (Myrtle Monkey)
Caldwell Crocodile: 1 (Brewer Bunny)
Leevi Lion: 1 (Pascha Poodle)
Ember Elephant: 1 (Haydn Hippo)
Non-voters: 2 (Caldwell Crocodile, Bennett Bulldog)

Frustratingly, with two scum teams a handful of useful rules about scum voting might not apply. So still do. One guide that may still apply is

Scum tend not to place the first vote in someone

As always there will be exceptions to this rule, but because the first vote on someone will be scrutinised, they avoid such examination by following rather than leading votes.

for day one, this gives us eight alive animals that did not vote first.

for day two, this gives us a list of six alive animals, plus two non voters

Six names occur on both lists. Gracie, Ronan, Caldwell, Whitby, Bennett and Huxley. 

If I were a betting animal, and I bet you I am, I would say we will find scum among that list. Eeny meeny miney mo.

Given my examination of his phrasing above, I will act accordingly and 

Vote: Whitby Walrus

Plus twice now, he has said "let's look at Hayden, anyone think he's scummy?"

Dude, if you think so, vote for me. Lay out a good case.

but you do not want to be the first vote on me, so you fluff and suspicionise me without actually putting your teeth into it.

Damn. Cannot even spell my own name right. Sheesh. Talking too fast.

 

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Vote Tally

Caldwell Crocodile: 1 (Ember Elephant)
Whitby Walrus: 1 (Haydn Hippo)

With 10 players left, it take 6 votes to lynch. There are 43.5 hours left in Day Three.

3 hours ago, Ember Elephant said:

Vote: Caldwell Crocodile

56 minutes ago, Haydn Hippo said:

Vote: Whitby Walrus

 

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3 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

Frustratingly, with two scum teams a handful of useful rules about scum voting might not apply. So still do. One guide that may still apply is

Scum tend not to place the first vote in someone

Thanks for reminding us! Now we can be sure to cross you off all of our suspicious animals list because you have voted first both days! You must be town!

Really though you reminding everyone here of that info which is only partially true really makes you look more scummy to me. You'r basically saying "scum do this and guess what I have not done that so I must not be scum!". 

5 hours ago, Whitby Walrus said:

A vig kill feels like the most likely option for Braxton. I don’t understand why scum would want to get rid of a Villager who was under scrutiny already.  

 

I’m deliberating on Huxley. Whatever alignment he is he’s of no help to them. I feel it’s better to focus on the players who are active so they can respond anyway. Going back to my earlier comment Infeel Haydn Hippo was quick to try and disprove what Parrot was saying about Anti-Momster/Anti-Hellion pretty quickly and I’m not sure I like that. Is he trying to hide something? 

I’ve been theorising Parrot might have been a bomb. Which would make Pashca the Vig. Or visa versa (Parrot was the Vig and Pashca was the bomb) but if that’s the case then why didn’t the scum kill last night? It’s all very confusing. Would anyone like a Taco?

No taco, not all of us are carnivore's. While I disagree with a lot of what Haydn said I do think you should make a vote. You seem to have something against Haydn. Why not make a vote? It's not like it's permanent. 

13 hours ago, Caldwell Crocodile said:

Of course you didn't. You let Huxley do that which is why your talking about me and not him. Makes you looking town for not wanting to lynch someone who is now confirmed town, and gives you time to set up your little case against me so it appears you've had suspicions of me for awhile now and not just targeting me now because you think I'm an easy lynch* (which I am)*

Clearly not.

lol that phrasing.

Feels staged.

I am talking more about you then Huxley because you are actively making fluffy post and odd statements. Huxley has barley said anything and thus my attention is on him a lot less, though I have mentioned him as someone to keep an eye out on. Though I do find it interesting how its only after you have been called and it may lead to somewhere, do you start actually attacking people and not just saying what others have already stated.

I think Caldwell fluffy post, sheepish day one vote, no day two for the reason of there was nobody to vote for, and his odd attacks today make me comfortably in voting for the croc. 

Vote: Caldwell Croc

So Caldwell is this still day one? Or is it day two? Shall you vote or shall you not vote? I am interested too see who you think is worthy of the end today. 

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Leevi had a good point about Ronan, Gracie, and Huxley being the only animals to vote for both Braxton and Myrtle. 

I’m still suspicious of Haydn, but misreading his vote yesterday significantly weakens my case and at the very least he’s been active. I think there’s a good chance at least one scum is lurking in the shadows, just skating by, and Huxley definitely fits that bill - and he took the lazy route on two bandwagons which both turned out to be town. 

Vote: Huxley Horse

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Vote Tally

Caldwell Crocodile: 2 (Ember Elephant, Brewer Bunny)
Whitby Walrus: 1 (Haydn Hippo)
Huxley Horse: 1 (Bennett Bulldog)

With 10 players left, it take 6 votes to lynch. There are 39 hours left in Day Three.

1 hour ago, Brewer Bunny said:

Vote: Caldwell Croc

54 minutes ago, Bennett Bulldog said:

Vote: Huxley Horse

4 hours ago, Hinckley said:

 

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I've gone back and reviewed a fair amount of what Ronan, Gracie, and Huxley have said, and I don't really have much of a stronger opinion about any of them than I did before I started.  Huxley has used the excuse of being stuck on his farm a few times for a lack of contributions, but at some point those contributions need to pick up.  The one thing that did stick out a bit was how dismissive Huxley was of Myrtle's inventor claim.  That pushes Huxley a bit over the edge for me.

That said, for now I will:

Vote: Brewer Bunny

I think the arguments made against Caldwell, who's contributions have been fairly weak, have some merit.  Brewer voted for him yesterday and again today.  The thing that I noticed about yesterday's vote, however, was the way in which Brewer voted for Ember quick and early, then later switched to Caldwell after the claim by Myrtle.  The vote for Caldwell at that point didn't seem like it was coming... Brewer kind of went around in circles agreeing with Caldwell and saying that Caldwell was scummy, but ultimately voted for him.  Today he's voting for Caldwell again, although seems to also have a big issue with Haydn.

 

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7 hours ago, Brewer Bunny said:

Thanks for reminding us! Now we can be sure to cross you off all of our suspicious animals list because you have voted first both days! You must be town!

Really though you reminding everyone here of that info which is only partially true really makes you look more scummy to me. You'r basically saying "scum do this and guess what I have not done that so I must not be scum!". 

Uh-huh.

'Cause I talked about myself so much, and insisted on my own non-scuminess. :sarcasm_hmpf:

Or are you annoyed I did the analysis that you did not do, moving from the info which is definitely true, since you just cut and pasted it from Schafer's own posts with some added colour coding.

If you disagree with my interpretation, go ahead, say so. Post your own analysis. Look into the first voters. Actually, let me, since I doubt you would.

day one, at the end there were five standing first voters. two of those are town.

the other three are Hadyn, Leevi and Ember. 

Hadyn raised his case long before voting opened and drew heat for it. He was the first person to vote when voting opened despite eight (eight!) other animals speaking before him and not voting, including Caldwell yelling Ham Sandwich! Several people have pointed fingers at Hadyn, in fact pretty much everyone on the list of non-first voters has suggested his scumminess. Hmmm. Think about that for a bit.

Ember voted for Caldwell (1of1), changed to Braxton (6 of 8) , then changed to Gracie (1of1). The purpose of not voting first is to avoid detailed scrutiny. Ember as 6 on Braxton could be doing that, but his unvote? That drew heat. He was not the hammer, he was in the sweet zone. If Braxton had been lynched and flipped town, Ember would not have been in the spotlight. If he was scum it is (in my opinion) unlikely he would have unvoted. I now rate Ember as likely town given day one.

Leevi calls out Myrtle (whom we now know to be town). To be fair, I had earlier pointed her out for a confusion. Leevi points to Myrtle's vote on Braxton as being something a scum would do (voting second to avoid scrutiny!). If Leevi were scum, we would have an example of a scum who thinks it is scummy to vote second on someone so here is voting first on someone in order to appear not scummy. A scum who was that meta would probably bus a fellow scum in the first round to gain cover later, if either of them were under spotlight. I am still trying to get a read on Leevi, but he is actively hunting scum.

Day two first voters.

Once again, by the end of the day we have five remaining first voters. Two surviving.

To examine Hadyn, The vote was super late in the day and totally unlikely to end in a lynch. Essentially it was a throwaway vote. And it was a move vote from someone else who was not the majority candidate. Super scummy. Lynchworthy.:sarcasm_hmpf:

To examine Brewer, her vote on Caldwell was with 12 hours on the clock (so much less scummy than only 3!), totally likely to end in a lynch. Not a throwaway vote at all. And it was a move from Ember who had no other votes on him (at the time), which is totally townie move since her vote was being wasted. Super not scummy. Not Lynchworthy. 

Care to look into Day three or shall I after I rest my voice for a bit?

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Vote: Brewer Bunny. 

I would vote Huxley, but that would be because of my suspicion of Brewer and the belief that she could be his scum mate. Of course there is also the fact that he's been extremely inactive, but still I'd rather lynch Brewer who is the main reason I have my suspicion of Huxley in the first place.

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17 hours ago, Leevi Lion said:

I guess they twiddle their thumbs and complain?  The only reason I think that maybe they're alternating the kill and we have a vig is that Braxton really doesn't make much sense as a night kill for either team unless they knew something about his role.  He could have easily been lynched on Day 2.  Now the fact that Myrtle claimed to be a day time inventor means that it's entirely possible the scum have a day time role as well, so it's possible, but it still seems pretty unlikely.  I suppose Braxton's killer could've been an SK trying to look like a vig

But Myrtle said she was blocked on day two, and now we know she was town it's probably safe to assume she was telling the truth, we just don't know if it was town or scum who blocked her. So maybe if it was a scum action that would lend more weight to the alternating night theory.

 

15 hours ago, Ronan Rabbit said:

I defended myself because what he said was not accurate.  I don't really think I was being that prickly.

You were/are hella defensive. 

 

15 hours ago, Ronan Rabbit said:

I explained that Caldwell was front of mind because he had been posting.  He got his own post because I was addressing one thing at a time (because I was on the phone).  The two posts before that merged into one, but I wasn't as quick with the third one.

No, it took you nearly fifteen minutes to type that single, short sentence, so you really, really weren't as quick.

 

15 hours ago, Ronan Rabbit said:

I never said I wasn't at all concerned, I just hadn't made a comment about it. So, I commented on Huxley because you asked me about him.  And in responding to that it made me think about more than I had been about whether he might be scum or not.  That is why I provided more information.  I don't think that contributing to the discussion is an over-reaction.

You're deliberately missing my point. You singled out an animal. It was right at the beginning of the day, Haydn had even posted and said "I'll be back in a bit" after Caldwell posted some fluff reaction stuff. Hardly anyone else had even turned up yet and you basically said "he'd better say something more substantial" when other animals hadn't even said anything at all, and Huxley has barely even neighed anything the entire time other that how busy he is not being here.

So now you and Brewer are like "we only noticed how inactive he was because we saw him posting" which is messed up. And you shouldn't need me to ask you for you to consider whether someone might be scum or not, unless you already know.

I think you basically picked what you thought was an easy lynch and decided to "casually" lay some ground work for it, and that in my eyes is scummy as hell.

So I Vote: Ronan Rabbit

 

13 hours ago, Whitby Walrus said:

I’m deliberating on Huxley. Whatever alignment he is he’s of no help to them. I feel it’s better to focus on the players who are active so they can respond anyway. Going back to my earlier comment Infeel Haydn Hippo was quick to try and disprove what Parrot was saying about Anti-Momster/Anti-Hellion pretty quickly and I’m not sure I like that. Is he trying to hide something?

I really don't get this "don't look at the guy who isn't saying anything at all!", now also from you.

 

12 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

For me, it is perfectly reasonable for the bunny to raise this with him. It is your confusion which is either a failure of imagination (which I totally understand, see above) or is an indication that you've assumed something about how villagers think and what we know.

I am a Goat not a bunny, but I agree with what you're saying about Ronan.

 

12 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

Six names occur on both lists. Gracie, Ronan, Caldwell, Whitby, Bennett and Huxley. 

If I were a betting animal, and I bet you I am, I would say we will find scum among that list. Eeny meeny miney mo.

 

You've given us a list of six animals out of ten (that you're not on) and you're willing to bet there's scum amongst them? I'd eat my hat if there wasn't! Do you really think that applying kinda simplified "rules" will be relevant in a game with two scum teams both trying to get rid of each other? And it looks like you're just picking someone at random with the "teeny meeny" stuff.

 

8 hours ago, Brewer Bunny said:

I am talking more about you then Huxley because you are actively making fluffy post and odd statements. Huxley has barley said anything and thus my attention is on him a lot less, though I have mentioned him as someone to keep an eye out on. Though I do find it interesting how its only after you have been called and it may lead to somewhere, do you start actually attacking people and not just saying what others have already stated.

Another one of the "lets ignore the guy who isn't even here".

 

2 hours ago, Leevi Lion said:

Huxley has used the excuse of being stuck on his farm a few times for a lack of contributions, but at some point those contributions need to pick up.

And another. It's Day 3. How long do we wait?

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Vote Tally

Caldwell Crocodile: 2 (Ember Elephant, Brewer Bunny)
Whitby Walrus: 1 (Haydn Hippo)
Huxley Horse: 1 (Bennett Bulldog)
Brewer Bunny: 2 (Leevi Lion, Caldwell Crocodile)
Ronan Rabbit: 1 (Gracie Goat)

With 10 players left, it take 6 votes to lynch. There are 31.5 hours left in Day Three.

3 hours ago, Leevi Lion said:

Vote: Brewer Bunny

57 minutes ago, Caldwell Crocodile said:

Vote: Brewer Bunny.

6 minutes ago, Gracie Goat said:

Vote: Ronan Rabbit

7 hours ago, Hinckley said:

 

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15 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

Vote: Whitby Walrus

Plus twice now, he has said "let's look at Hayden, anyone think he's scummy?"

Dude, if you think so, vote for me. Lay out a good case.

I'll admit this was my fault. I wrote that post at about 11 at night and was super tired. I meant to add a vote on using the merge function thing but obviously that didn't happen. So yeah, apologies for that.  Vote: Haydn Hippo

15 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

I think you have your clauses mixed up there.

I totally did not understand what the parrot meant by saying some people are more anti-monster. I could not think of a town reason to say that, though clearly in hindsight there must be one. And preferring to posit his scumminess rather than my failure of imagination, I strongly called him out.

 

It was not me spinning it to sound scummy, it already sounded scummy. Turns out it was not, but that's how it sounded. The fact that there are animals here that assume external communication, thinking "we do it, everyone else is too" is going to be a useful indicator going forward

Fair enough but your phrase was "Scum signalling tactic". Why would scum I hint (either directly or indirectly) that they were involved in communication outside the day thread? 

15 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

 

Scum tend not to place the first vote in someone

As always there will be exceptions to this rule, but because the first vote on someone will be scrutinised, they avoid such examination by following rather than leading votes.

for day one, this gives us eight alive animals that did not vote first.

for day two, this gives us a list of six alive animals, plus two non voters

Six names occur on both lists. Gracie, Ronan, Caldwell, Whitby, Bennett and Huxley. 

If I were a betting animal, and I bet you I am, I would say we will find scum among that list. Eeny meeny miney mo. 

 

What about the other 4 animals? The fact they voted first means they probably won't be scum? This doesn't really narrow anything down. It just feels like a " look at all these people, one of them must be scum" I could pick six names out of a hat and say that there was probably a scum in there. 

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Vote Tally

Caldwell Crocodile: 2 (Ember Elephant, Brewer Bunny)
Whitby Walrus: 1 (Haydn Hippo)
Huxley Horse: 1 (Bennett Bulldog)
Brewer Bunny: 2 (Leevi Lion, Caldwell Crocodile)
Ronan Rabbit: 1 (Gracie Goat)
Haydn Hippo: 1 (Whitby Walrus)

With 10 players left, it take 6 votes to lynch. There are 28 hours left in Day Three.

45 minutes ago, Whitby Walrus said:

Vote: Haydn Hippo

3 hours ago, Hinckley said:

 

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4 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

Uh-huh.

'Cause I talked about myself so much, and insisted on my own non-scuminess. :sarcasm_hmpf:

Or are you annoyed I did the analysis that you did not do, moving from the info which is definitely true, since you just cut and pasted it from Schafer's own posts with some added colour coding.

If you disagree with my interpretation, go ahead, say so. Post your own analysis. Look into the first voters. Actually, let me, since I doubt you would.

day one, at the end there were five standing first voters. two of those are town.

the other three are Hadyn, Leevi and Ember. 

Hadyn raised his case long before voting opened and drew heat for it. He was the first person to vote when voting opened despite eight (eight!) other animals speaking before him and not voting, including Caldwell yelling Ham Sandwich! Several people have pointed fingers at Hadyn, in fact pretty much everyone on the list of non-first voters has suggested his scumminess. Hmmm. Think about that for a bit.

Ember voted for Caldwell (1of1), changed to Braxton (6 of 8) , then changed to Gracie (1of1). The purpose of not voting first is to avoid detailed scrutiny. Ember as 6 on Braxton could be doing that, but his unvote? That drew heat. He was not the hammer, he was in the sweet zone. If Braxton had been lynched and flipped town, Ember would not have been in the spotlight. If he was scum it is (in my opinion) unlikely he would have unvoted. I now rate Ember as likely town given day one.

Leevi calls out Myrtle (whom we now know to be town). To be fair, I had earlier pointed her out for a confusion. Leevi points to Myrtle's vote on Braxton as being something a scum would do (voting second to avoid scrutiny!). If Leevi were scum, we would have an example of a scum who thinks it is scummy to vote second on someone so here is voting first on someone in order to appear not scummy. A scum who was that meta would probably bus a fellow scum in the first round to gain cover later, if either of them were under spotlight. I am still trying to get a read on Leevi, but he is actively hunting scum.

Day two first voters.

Once again, by the end of the day we have five remaining first voters. Two surviving.

To examine Hadyn, The vote was super late in the day and totally unlikely to end in a lynch. Essentially it was a throwaway vote. And it was a move vote from someone else who was not the majority candidate. Super scummy. Lynchworthy.:sarcasm_hmpf:

To examine Brewer, her vote on Caldwell was with 12 hours on the clock (so much less scummy than only 3!), totally likely to end in a lynch. Not a throwaway vote at all. And it was a move from Ember who had no other votes on him (at the time), which is totally townie move since her vote was being wasted. Super not scummy. Not Lynchworthy. 

Care to look into Day three or shall I after I rest my voice for a bit?

Do you always talk about yourself this way?  It's kind of weird, you know.

4 hours ago, Caldwell Crocodile said:

Vote: Brewer Bunny. 

I would vote Huxley, but that would be because of my suspicion of Brewer and the belief that she could be his scum mate. Of course there is also the fact that he's been extremely inactive, but still I'd rather lynch Brewer who is the main reason I have my suspicion of Huxley in the first place.

Anyone else you find scummy besides Brewer and Huxley?

3 hours ago, Gracie Goat said:

I really don't get this "don't look at the guy who isn't saying anything at all!", now also from you.

...

Another one of the "lets ignore the guy who isn't even here".

...

And another. It's Day 3. How long do we wait?

Apparently longer?  Bennett's the only one casting a vote Huxley's way at this point, and Huxley still isn't around to say anything.

1 hour ago, Whitby Walrus said:

I'll admit this was my fault. I wrote that post at about 11 at night and was super tired. I meant to add a vote on using the merge function thing but obviously that didn't happen. So yeah, apologies for that.  Vote: Haydn Hippo

I missed your comments on Haydn above.  Haydn was actually curious initially about the anti-Monster comment and asked what Pierot meant by it.  That looks more like fishing in retrospect now that we know Pierot was town.

Pascha called it a bunch of nothing and Haydn was quick to point out he didn't think so.  However, he went straight to it being a scum signaling tactic at that point.

Clearly, Haydn didn't like Pierot's answer that he was not going to give out more information about what it meant.

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24 hours remain in Day Three.

(Fun cut scene will be up in about 5-6 hours. Sorry. Very busy day here. :blush: )

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On 5/3/2019 at 6:00 AM, Ronan Rabbit said:

The two posts before that merged into one, but I wasn't as quick with the third one.

8 hours ago, Gracie Goat said:

No, it took you nearly fifteen minutes to type that single, short sentence, so you really, really weren't as quick.

What's your point?  Is it scummy that I took at little more time between the second and third point than between the first and second?

 

8 hours ago, Gracie Goat said:

I think you basically picked what you thought was an easy lynch and decided to "casually" lay some ground work for it, and that in my eyes is scummy as hell.

He has been making posts but not really contributing anything of substance for most of the game and I was calling him out for it for doing it yet again at the start of today.  I was definitely signalling he was on the radar. 

Vote: Caldwell Crocodile 

 

8 hours ago, Gracie Goat said:

I really don't get this "don't look at the guy who isn't saying anything at all!", now also from you.

..

Another one of the "lets ignore the guy who isn't even here".

 

And another. It's Day 3. How long do we wait?

If you think we shouldn't wait to pursue Huxley, there's no-one stopping you from voting for him.

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12 hours ago, Gracie Goat said:

You've given us a list of six animals out of ten (that you're not on) and you're willing to bet there's scum amongst them? I'd eat my hat if there wasn't! Do you really think that applying kinda simplified "rules" will be relevant in a game with two scum teams both trying to get rid of each other? And it looks like you're just picking someone at random with the "teeny meeny" stuff.

Have you not been paying attention?

According to various theories that have been floated, the scum teams might have started with two or three members each and may have recruited villagers.

At a minimum there were likely four scum at the start. We have seen no scum lynched or night killed.

At a totally paranoid count, with three scum at start, a vig and SK in play and three successful conversions, all of you all could all be scum. 

There are nine animals that could be scum, six scum is entirely possible. 

I was not providing a list and saying there is a scum on it. I was listing those a animals I think, in the balance of probability are scum. The whole list. As you point out, it is a virtual certainty there is at least one. Hopefully my list has done better than that!

As for my name not being on my list of scum, are you really not paying attention. It is my list. I know I am a villiager. Of course I am not going to put my name on my scum list. If you want a scum list with my name on it, make your own damn list. Pay attention, properly hunt scum.

And yes, I was picking from my list almost at random. If (as I think) there is very good chance all of those on my list are scum, I do not mind much which one of them we lynch tonight. You might mind, you may prefer someone from the other team, I get that. Just say so.

 

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Vote Tally

Caldwell Crocodile: 3 (Ember Elephant, Brewer Bunny, Ronan Rabbit)
Whitby Walrus: 1 (Haydn Hippo)
Huxley Horse: 1 (Bennett Bulldog)
Brewer Bunny: 2 (Leevi Lion, Caldwell Crocodile)
Ronan Rabbit: 1 (Gracie Goat)
Haydn Hippo: 1 (Whitby Walrus)

With 10 players left, it take 6 votes to lynch. There are 19 hours left in Day Three.

3 hours ago, Ronan Rabbit said:

Vote: Caldwell Crocodile

8 hours ago, Hinckley said:

 

 

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9 hours ago, Whitby Walrus said:

I'll admit this was my fault. I wrote that post at about 11 at night and was super tired. I meant to add a vote on using the merge function thing but obviously that didn't happen. So yeah, apologies for that.  Vote: Haydn Hippo

Fair enough but your phrase was "Scum signalling tactic". Why would scum I hint (either directly or indirectly) that they were involved in communication outside the day thread? 

What about the other 4 animals? The fact they voted first means they probably won't be scum? This doesn't really narrow anything down. It just feels like a " look at all these people, one of them must be scum" I could pick six names out of a hat and say that there was probably a scum in there. 

Well done. You voted. Though I do not understand why you would need to merge it to the end rather than just write it at the start of your post. Now you just need, like, you know, a reason? Other than OMFGUS.

I do not know what purpose the signalling served! That is why I chased it. As I said, I could think of no good reason for a villager to do it. There must be one. It bugs me deeply that I do not know what it was, nor that anyone else seems to care.

Sigh, would you like me to go through everything I just laid out for the goat?

It is my list for my reasons, with my thinking behind it. The choice of names, if you had actually read my post is not random. If you do not like my list or my reasons, make your own list. Play the ball, not the man.

And yes. I assert, as a theory, that the first voters are much less likely to be scum. Disagree with that? Say why you disagree. Just saying you do not like it does not add anything to the finding of the scum.

At this point in the game, four or six scum are both reasonable hypotheses. Out of ten animals, yes it's not a narrow field. 

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We need to come to a consensus and get a mafia voted off.  We currently have votes against 6 of the 10 of us.  This is not good, and of course, the only person who hasn't voted is Huxley.

At this point, I think it's safe to say that Whitby and Haydn aren't on the same scum team.  I think it's unlikely that Brewer and Caldwell are either.

Unvote: Brewer Bunny

Vote: Huxley Horse

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Vote Tally

Caldwell Crocodile: 3 (Ember Elephant, Brewer Bunny, Ronan Rabbit)
Whitby Walrus: 1 (Haydn Hippo)
Huxley Horse: 2 (Bennett Bulldog, Leevi Lion)
Brewer Bunny: 1 (Caldwell Crocodile)
Ronan Rabbit: 1 (Gracie Goat)
Haydn Hippo: 1 (Whitby Walrus)

With 10 players left, it take 6 votes to lynch. There are 13 hours left in Day Three.

48 minutes ago, Leevi Lion said:

Vote: Huxley Horse

5 hours ago, Hinckley said:

 

 

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7 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

And yes. I assert, as a theory, that the first voters are much less likely to be scum. Disagree with that? Say why you disagree. Just saying you do not like it does not add anything to the finding of the scum.

Even if statistically speaking maybe the scum have never been the first voters, a game like our last Pirates one has proved we can't make general assumptions. It's making general assumptions like "scum probably won't do this..." or "scum won't be allowed to do that..." is what caused the town to lose our last game. Your list feels more like a deflection from joth you and the other 4 you didnt mention. I don't disagree with you. As I said before there probably is a scum in that list given it's 60% of the players. 

8 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

I was not providing a list and saying there is a scum on it. 

You're backtracking their slightly because that's exactly (or at least near enough) to what you said:

On 5/3/2019 at 12:34 AM, Haydn Hippo said:

If I were a betting animal, and I bet you I am, I would say we will find scum among that list. Eeny meeny miney mo.

 

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11 hours ago, Ronan Rabbit said:

What's your point?  Is it scummy that I took at little more time between the second and third point than between the first and second?

It is yet another inconsistency in your post, which is scummy. That's my point.

 

11 hours ago, Ronan Rabbit said:

If you think we shouldn't wait to pursue Huxley, there's no-one stopping you from voting for him.

It's real nice to have your permission, but I think I've made it pretty clear that I think you're scummier. Huxley'd already been voted for and he still now hasn't bothered showing. I doubt another vote from me at the point you say this is gonna give him a burst of talkativeness and anyway I think it's much more likely you are scum.

 

8 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

Have you not been paying attention?

OMFG Mr Prickly Pants, yes I have. My point was that you were stating the goddamn obvious that in a list of six out of ten of us, there'd be some scum in it. It isn't some revelation, there's no clever deductions or math, it's basically a list of people that you're not on so you can say "look at them, don't look at me". 

Yeah, I get the theory behind it, which is flimsy as I said, and the conclusion is just... I could write out a random list of six people and still be pretty confident there's scum on that list because that's really obvious.

"Oh I know I'm town, so I'm not on the list" well that's garbage, because the reason you gave was that you weren't on the list because of all your amazing working out. That's inconsistent.  

It would have been more convincing if you'd had a list which you were on, and then removed yourself from it because you "know you're town". 

And you're like "it is completely fine for me to pick someone at random from this completely rubbish list I have pulled out of my ass" - have you not being paying attention? You think that according to the laws of mafia which are super-relevant in this situation and the universe follows exclusively you've managed to come up with a list of all scum, as you only now say?? Sorry to burst your bubble, but I know you've got that bit wrong.

I'm just left wondering if you really were amazed by your own deductions.

 

7 hours ago, Haydn Hippo said:

Sigh, would you like me to go through everything I just laid out for the goat?

At least you can remember I'm a goat this time. 

 

2 hours ago, Leevi Lion said:

We need to come to a consensus and get a mafia voted off.  We currently have votes against 6 of the 10 of us.  This is not good, and of course, the only person who hasn't voted is Huxley.

I am much more convinced Ronan is scum, so I'm going to hold my vote, but I'll change it to Huxley if necessary.

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Unvote: Whitby walrus

Vote: Huxley Horse

4 hours ago, Leevi Lion said:

We need to come to a consensus and get a mafia voted off.  We currently have votes against 6 of the 10 of us.  This is not good, and of course, the only person who hasn't voted is Huxley.

Fair enough.

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I can get behind Huxley's lynch. As mentioned earlier I'd rather lynch Brewer since she's one of the reasons I'm suspicious of Huxley in the first place, but Huxley will suffice.

Unvote: Brewer Bunny

Vote: Huxley Horse

 

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