For how long will the LEGO company exist?

[Lego David]

No company lives forever, despite how popular it is. We just saw how Toys R'US went bankrupt last year. LEGO almost went bankrupt in 2003, but foartently it survived  because of Bionicle. Something like what happened in 2003 could always happen again. 

What do you think? How long will the LEGO company last? Obviously we all want it to live forever, but we all know forever it's a very long time, and nothing lasts forever.

Discuss!

Edited February 24, 2019 by Lego David

[MAB]

More than 20 years. What will be more interesting is when do they decide to stop making bricks, and why.

[JJ Tong (zfogshooterz)]

I'm not sure whether is this off topic but since this touch, the "fortunately it survived" part, I'm quite confused in the video regarding "Too many licensed themes" where you said that it was a lie that Star Wars saved Lego.

On Topic, I don't think Lego going down anytime soon. One of the aspects of Lego crashing down back then was terrible management. Other than Bionicle and Star Wars(?) saving Lego, Jørgen Vig Knudstorp was brought in to sort the huge mess that's in the company. I don't really know what's going on in the internals that well so I definitely can't say when it'll go (because again, I don't know). But it doesn't seem to be in a deep mess right now.

Edited February 24, 2019 by JJ Tong (zfogshooterz)

[Pdaitabird]

Here's hoping the Lego Group keeps on going until the Last Judgment!

[Digger of Bricks]

Unless some major economic/political/ecological/planetary disaster occurs sometime within the Twenty-First Century, I think TLG and the LEGO System shall persevere no matter what low points the company may run into in the decades ahead. Given that it's now reached a near Disney-like presence in the public consciousness, if TLG fails to be some time in future due to whatever it may potentially befall, there'll be someone who grew up with their legacy willing to resurrect it from any crippled state it may find itself in, even if that means rebuilding it from the ground up. 

Edited February 24, 2019 by Digger of Bricks

[koalayummies]

They'll be around through all the current AFOL's lives. After which point who cares, we're all dead.

Then the BURPs SPUDs and STAMPs will rise up, take over every set and finally be appreciated.

[Digger of Bricks]

4 minutes ago, koalayummies said:

They'll be around through all the current AFOL's lives. After which point who cares, we're all dead.

You think there'll be no future generations of AFOLs after us? 

[dr_spock]

As long as there are people willing to work for and run the company?

 

[koalayummies]

44 minutes ago, Digger of Bricks said:

You think there'll be no future generations of AFOLs after us? 

I said they'll be around through at least all of the current AFOL's lives, 20-80 years. There will be new AFOL every year. Poorly worded yes but whatever given the thread subject.

Edited February 24, 2019 by koalayummies

[Digger of Bricks]

13 minutes ago, koalayummies said:

Poorly worded yes but whatever given the thread subject.

Ulterior motive aside, I think it's still an interesting subject matter to ponder.

[Johnny1360]

Until civilization has no use for toys or until some sort of global disaster. 

[koalayummies]

20 minutes ago, Digger of Bricks said:

Ulterior motive aside, I think it's still an interesting subject matter to ponder.

A lot of the OP's threads are just thinly veiled criticisms of TLG operations (themes they should discontinue, non kid-friendly sets, licensed vs original themes) appearing as a means to find faults where there aren't any or garner agreement on perceived faults so this thread speculating on a hypothetical total demise comes across as a continuation of that trend. All that despite TLG still being the worlds largest toy company by revenue. TLG is clearly doing a lot of things right.

But to participate the biggest failures (of big 'successful' companies) in history are predominantly publicly traded banking, insurance, brokering, securities or hedge fund companies most of which were committing crimes, operating negligently, without proper regulation or some combination.

TRU, a retailer, was doomed by the leveraged buyout.

By comparison TLG is a privately held toy manufacturer, nearly unrivaled, of sound morals, total value over 14 billion (2012), with around 4.4 billion in revenue, more than a billion US dollars in profit and leadership that didn't come from Wall Street so...

23 minutes ago, Johnny1360 said:

Until civilization has no use for toys or until some sort of global disaster. 

 

[Johnny1360]

25 minutes ago, koalayummies said:

A lot of the OP's threads are just thinly veiled criticisms of TLG operations 

 

Yes a pattern has certainly emerged. Not even really all that thinly veiled. Devils advocate? Almost feels like I am be baited by some of the responses. 

[JJ Tong (zfogshooterz)]

1 hour ago, Johnny1360 said:

Yes a pattern has certainly emerged. Not even really all that thinly veiled. Devils advocate? Almost feels like I am be baited by some of the responses. 

I don't think he's being devils advocate. Based on previous discussions it seems that it's quite personal. I mean flat out saying 2018 & 2019 sets is "trash" isn't really exploring the thought further.

Edited February 25, 2019 by JJ Tong (zfogshooterz)

[splatman]

A company may not last forever, but there's nothing stopping any from being in business for over a millennium.

See this list @ Wikipedia.

If that's anything to go by, this planet might be seeing new LEGO sets past Y3K. What will those sets be like, that's another matter entirely. But, there's 3D printing, and quality is always improving, and TLG might just reinvent itself. Then again, 3D printing quality might never rival injection-molding, so buying LEGO sets might always be a thing in some form or another (think how brick and wood construction remains popular despite steel and concrete becoming common).

[leafan]

8 hours ago, koalayummies said:

A lot of the OP's threads are just thinly veiled criticisms of TLG operations (themes they should discontinue, non kid-friendly sets, licensed vs original themes) appearing as a means to find faults where there aren't any or garner agreement on perceived faults so this thread speculating on a hypothetical total demise comes across as a continuation of that trend.

 

At least he's creating discussion. His last few threads certainly have had legs, which is something this forum needs.

I'd rather more passionate people post and not necessarily reaffirming the status quo.

Lego will continue until they completely stop listening to the customer, which is what almost killed it last time.

For what it's worth, some people already think there's a bit of disconnect.

[MAB]

I think a bigger threat is that a future family member sells out to a large corporation or internal family arguments cause a split to the company.

 

[leafan]

18 minutes ago, MAB said:

I think a bigger threat is that a future family member sells out to a large corporation or internal family arguments cause a split to the company.

 

Yeah that'd be concerning. I doubt they'd keep it in Denmark if that were the case.

[LouisSmith]

As long as there are children, Lego will exist.

[coinoperator]

Ad long as LEGO produces products that will be bought for children...

It's a melee between construction toys and tablets, TV and telephones.

19 hours ago, Lego David said:

Toys R'US went bankrup

Yeah no wonder

I've seen them coming here in the Netherlands
They started a shop that looked big but actually their stock was in the shop itself so it looked only huge.
They started with the wrong products, like Fischer Technic that was a long gone (great) construction toy
(oh man, I bought theire whole stock for a bargain)
This simply shows that they didn't do any marketing research for our country
They were in a shopping centre here nearby, in between two other toyshops (one bought by the other and that other just went broke)

Toy's 'r Us had some kind of idea that "they could do this" arrogancy at it's best.

Back to LEGO
They made lots of mistakes but they changed several times their marketing and products to stay in the running.
Sometimes they hit the edges...but they survived.

At this point Toys "R Us did not learn anything, they went on and on with products that nobody wanted and way to high prices.
F.A. Their shop here had the Death Star for €502,95 on the shelf while it costs 499 minus 5% VIP points at LEGO.com

Maybe they will run into problems again but they proved to learn from their mistakes so chances are good they will survive again.

Edited February 25, 2019 by coinoperator

[MAB]

TRU's problems were more to do with the people that bought them then shoved loads of debt onto the company, rather than their operating practices. Most AFOLs knew they could do better than TRU when it came to buying LEGO sets, but many families still used TRU for more occasional purchases.

[TeriXeri]

When the few physical Toy stores here simply sell at or above LEGO.com prices, I never buy large sets from them.

That's not LEGO's problem that sets don't sell in those stores, when online is often below LEGO.com unless it's exclusive/d2c.

Edited February 25, 2019 by TeriXeri

[LucyCol]

19 hours ago, Pdaitabird said:

Here's hoping the Lego Group keeps on going until the Last Judgment!

And then they will release a UCS set depicting it 

[Lego David]

Just now, LucyCol said:

And then they will release a UCS set depicting it 

To bad nobody will have money to buy it at that point...

Edited February 25, 2019 by Lego David

[Mylenium]

15 hours ago, koalayummies said:

By comparison TLG is a privately held toy manufacturer, nearly unrivaled, of sound morals, total value over 14 billion (2012), with around 4.4 billion in revenue, more than a billion US dollars in profit and leadership that didn't come from Wall Street so...

Not really a good comparison, when you think of how e.g. Nokia, Nortel and others went down the drain. :D That's ultimately the point: Even a multi-billion behemoth can implode on itself within only a few years. You can even just look at what happened to Mattel - they were once king of the hill and then nobody bought Barbies anymore. Or look at Hasbro and their perpetual struggles to even turn a profit despite having a ton of products.

Examples abound and in such a volatile industry it's probably safe to say LEGO aren't in the clear, either. Just being known and engrained in people's minds and popular culture doesn't necessarily mean anything business wise and won't safe your bacon. They've been there and they need to keep on working on it. You could even strip it down to a case-by-case basis once again with what sets are "good", which are "bad" and how it affects their public image and financial results, but it's perhaps best to not open that can of worms again. 

One also shouldn't put too much stock in hollow phrases like "privately held". It's not that the Kristiansen Holding would be "your mom's benevolent secret college fund". They are just as entangled in international business and financial operations as anyone else and thus exposed to all the same movements and threats. On a bad day, it could merely take a Thanos' snap or another failed LEGO Movie to make it all go to dust or start an inescapable downward spiral...

Mylenium