CopMike

EB Xmas Raffle 2018 - Your Santa MOC entry thread

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14 hours ago, mocbuild101 said:

With about 185 (maybe less) entries, and 144 prizes, that makes for a 0.778378 in 1 (or ~77%) chance of winning, so it looks like you're actually not that bad at math :wink:.

Although that decreases as advent progresses, as there are less prizes available per remaining entrants.

I'll link again to an explanatory Google Sheets I made last year: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l846TgJeM1NQpmIGk__Mn_eg6u8LEUO3jwl8187bJU0/edit?usp=sharing. Assuming your guess of 185 entries, the probability is a good 77.8% today, but starts to tail off. It dips below 50% on the 19th, and by the 24th has reached only 12%.

Is the Winners Advent Calendar up yet? I can't find it with the search, and it hasn't been frontpaged, so I have no idea where it is.

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14 hours ago, mocbuild101 said:

With about 185 (maybe less) entries, and 144 prizes, that makes for a 0.778378 in 1 (or ~77%) chance of winning, so it looks like you're actually not that bad at math :wink:.

Thanks, I appreciate that!

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2 hours ago, MiloNelsiano said:

I was waiting for the link too, but decided to try a google search. Winners can be found here:

https://www.eurobricks.com/sieg/cal/

Thanks! Copmike also started a topic on that though.

Well I wish everyone goodluck, although you'd have to be pretty unlucky to not get a prize if the winning chances are 77% :P

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Many thanks to CopMike for hosting the raffle again this year! Hard to believe this year marks the 9th year of following this tradition for me, personally.
After the suspenseful waiting on and checking the calendars of the previous two years and not seeing my name listed,
it seems that has been made up for as this year's wait has already come to an early halt for me.
My very first huge manatee if I'm not mistaken (if it was indeed introduced in 2016). I'll take good care of it. :tongue: The holidays will be jollier once again.

Edited by General Magma

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First day, first prize. I'm honored!  :)

Thank You CopMike for organizing the raffle every year!

Merry Christmas to everyone!

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Look mom i have won a manatee!! 😁👍

 

This year the wait hasnt been long, I wonder what the prizes, I mean manatee is.   Can we have two manatee please?? 🥺😝

 

 

Thanks a lot CopMike for this wonderful tradition and good luck to everyone else!!!😁👍👍

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Captain's log, Day 8. Still no manatee in sight. The morale of the crew plummets. They start to say I'm crazy, that there is no such thing as xmas raffle manatee, that I'm deranged, and obsessed, and should give up on the expedition, and if they'll have to, they'll remove me from the chain of command by force. But I'm not crazy! CopMike told me there is a high chance to encounter this mythical beast, and the calculations support it! I know it is somewhere, and I'm going to find it! Even if that means mutiny. Heh, how ironic, Mutiny caused by a search for a manatee... IT'S A MANATEE MUTINY! AAAAHAHAHAHAAAA!!!!

Edited by Eggyslav

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On 12/8/2018 at 7:02 PM, Eggyslav said:

Captain's log, Day 8. Still no manatee in sight. The morale of the crew plummets. They start to say I'm crazy, that there is no such thing as xmas raffle manatee, that I'm deranged, and obsessed, and should give up on the expedition, and if they'll have to, they'll remove me from the chain of command by force. But I'm not crazy! CopMike told me there is a high chance to encounter this mythical beast, and the calculations support it! I know it is somewhere, and I'm going to find it! Even if that means mutiny. Heh, how ironic, Mutiny caused by a search for a manatee... IT'S A MANATEE MUTINY! AAAAHAHAHAHAAAA!!!!

Arrgh Tomastos sir, it's been months we're in the sea and still no sign of that blasted landlubber of a creature! And we're scurvified!!!!!

Yes indeed Jacker my boy!....The cap'n's gone loony! Me heard that every night he does the blabblin', growlin' and even did the unusual chucklin' about that creature all by himself at his quarters! In dawn he does his eatin' of meals and be at the mast with his spyglass and he'll be up there for hours until dusk!!!!  And what's worse.....he only thinks it's been days!!!!!!!!! We've been here for NINE months!!!!! What be this curse?!

That be some unhealthy obsessionin' there sir! It's....it's um....unhealthy! Say again...what's exactly is the creature the cap'n wanted us to hunt? Me ears still be having a hard time believing this preposterousity.

Well, it'll be soundin' preposterous indeed! But the cap'n was desperately sure that it's called the *mocking tone* "X-mas raffle manatee" *mocking tone*. I be meanin' seriously?! Who would believe that! I've never heard of that for sure! The other boys be doubtin' this too! There's no such thing as that creature! It's all in his mind! It's all a fairytale that he made up!!!!! If we don't find this  soon I will be skipping on him and that's right, I'll be doing it! And....

Nerster! what's all this running hubbub?! You be lookin' terrible!

It's the cap'n! He be going ballistics. I've just did the eavesdroppin' in him and it be horrifyin'! Me mind! It's so hard to fathom but to me surprise it's also easy to fathom....

Go on then Nerster! Don't be keepin' us fellas waitin'!

Alright Tomastos sir! The cap'n....he want to commit mutiny against us! it's-

*Both* What?!!!!!!!

Yes, you heard it. The cap'n has truly gone loony! He be thinkin' that it's ironic as it's a mutiny caused by a search of that beast! The true irony is that the cap'n be doing the deed against his crew when it usually be the opposite! Also, he somehow be knowing of the gossip of us saying that there's no such thing as that infernal creature and he be deranged, obsessed and should be giving up on that expedition. This be no expedition! This be a wild goose chase!!!!

I be betting me lucky sock that the cap'n have delusions about us wanting to remove him from the chain of command.

Yes Tomastos sir, he does have that. What worse is I be hearing him laughing a maddening laugh only a deranged and mentally unsound cap'n would do after writing at his log and be talking aloud to himself. You can even be hearing it right now, that be what the terrible noise is. It be very disturbing to me spine.

I be hearing it all right. Disturbing indeed!!! Hmmpuffe! And about removing the cap'n from the chain of command. Hmmm......Well, this be interesting. Most of us just want to be skipping on him. Why didn't we be thinking of this earlier!!!! It be time for us crew to do this! We be taking this no more! The cap'n should be careful on what he be wishing for....Gather the rest of our boys! We will be showing him what true mutiny taste like! Arrrghh!!!!!! Hmmmpuffe!!!!!

Both Jacker and Nerster : Aye sir!!! Arrrghhhh!!!!!!!!!

(I've re-edited this to fit the story more) Well. I hope you don't mind me having a little fun with this :wink: 

Edited by JJ Tong (zfogshooterz)

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I've recently realized that my entry's resolution is way larger than the rules specified. So yeah, I've edited it and it's now on a reduced size of 1000x563.

Now I just hope that I'm still in. :grin:

Edited by JJ Tong (zfogshooterz)

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There were nice contributions, this was a great contest. Now we all cross our fingers until the end of December

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Fun fact: I'm really surprised that there were no entries posted after CopMikes whistle this year! Not accepting the late entries was the way to go IMO. People can still learn something and there is still hope in humanity! :D

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