Lord of the Rings Ongoing Discussion

[McMurder_them_softly]

13 minutes ago, BrickBob Studpants said:

Just to clarify, @Clone OPatra vouches for the recent rumours, so there might be something to it after all  

I‘m still taking it with the biggest non-lethal dose of salt as possible! Actually, I‘d much rather have a Barad-Dûr as opposed to a Rivendell set, but maybe that’s just me

Now I am all confused haha

[mtrsteve]

46 minutes ago, BrickBob Studpants said:

Just to clarify, @Clone OPatra vouches for the recent rumours, so there might be something to it after all  

I‘m still taking it with the biggest non-lethal dose of salt imaginable! Actually, I‘d much rather have a Barad-Dûr as opposed to a Rivendell set, but maybe that’s just me

Honest question: am I supposed to know of Clone OPatra as a reliable source?

[BrickBob Studpants]

7 minutes ago, mtrsteve said:

Honest question: am I supposed to know of Clone OPatra as a reliable source?

Long story short: he‘s the moderator the leaker has shown their pictures to. While he‘s sceptical too, he says they‘re the highest-effort forgeries he‘s ever seen, if they‘re fake that is. He also points out how little the leaker gains by lying, which is true.

I‘m very sceptical too, but we will see if there is something to this story. Or maybe it‘s all an elaborate sting operation masterminded by TLG

Edited January 31, 2023 by BrickBob Studpants

[mtrsteve]

1 hour ago, BrickBob Studpants said:

Long story short: he‘s the moderator the leaker has shown their pictures to. While he‘s sceptical too, he says they‘re the highest-effort forgeries he‘s ever seen, if they‘re fake that is. He also points out how little the leaker gains by lying, which is true.

I‘m very sceptical too, but we will see if there is something to this story. Or maybe it‘s all an elaborate sting operation masterminded by TLG

Thanks! I will let this take my skepticism for the leaker's post from 100% down to 99% 

[Lordhelmet]

I would not be disappointed with Barad Dur and Rivendell.  (I doubt the second set this year though).  If they stick to 18+ only then I am really hoping they get smart and do dioramas with some bigger D2C mixed in,  a one hundred dollar diorama of a balrog and Gandalf would be awesome (among many others).

[Trunkbass]

So would it be Barad Dur instead of Rivendell or in addition to?

[Sneakguest]

I just want a Balrog! A molded one! Then I can rest i peace!

[Something_Awesome]

7 hours ago, BrickBob Studpants said:

I‘d be surprised if LOTR was anything but a pure 18+ line (plus BrickHeadz)  The fact there‘s nothing else in the pipeline is a pretty clear indication. Had they planned playsets, why wouldn’t they release them before/alongside the big D2C set? And the fact said set is part of the Icons theme speaks volumes too

Yeah, you definitely don't know about the pipeline. LEGO said they had completed the MBS Mos Eisley Cantina YEARS before release. And the newly leaked Ninjago City Markets set I personally know was completed AT LEAST two years ago. You really don't know about pipeline. Some sets take several years, as they actually start as passion projects. Some sets are designed in as little as six months. Again, you 100% do not know about the pipeline. Many LEGO employees can't even confirm the pipeline. A set leak is NOT the same as a pipeline. 

And lastly, making LotR exclusively an 18+ line makes zero sense, unless the licensor was convinced that sets aimed at younger audiences would not elevate the LotR franchise, which is unlikely. Everyone knows that toys are driven by children, even if it's adults that are buying them. 

6 hours ago, MAB said:

I agree that playsets are unlikely, and I imagine LEGO knows kids (in general, not specific individuals) are not interested in LOTR. They know what the sales numbers were like last time they did LOTR and The Hobbit.

However, I'm not sure D2C is necessarily the best way to go. I have no issue with one set per year (if we get that lucky) in the ICONS range. It seems to me that having it D2C misses out on people that are not necessarily into LEGO but might buy it. If they don't visit the LEGO store or website, they are unlikely to see it. Whereas if it is a non-D2C set in other stores too, then non-LEGO fans who are nto actually looking for LEGO will also get to see it.  Plus there is the advantage that it is more likely to be discounted if stocked by retailers other than LEGO!

 

The sales numbers for LotR last time were impeded by a not very popular Hobbit trilogy and the fact that they released and ended the line in the second half of the worst economic recession in our lifetime. Literally, people without jobs and people with jobs that are afraid they will lose their jobs won't buy LEGO. 

With all that said, it is hard to imagine LotR staying exclusively as an 18+ line. If there are two UCS-sized sets coming out, I think that serves as a good omen for smaller sets. Example, the UCS At-At. You need like 8 snow trooper battle packs for that thing just like you'd need to find a way to get more orc for Barad-Dur. This is what I mean when 18+ sets and sets for kids piggy back off each other. And licensors of big IP's highly value exposing their franchises to children. 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Something_Awesome

[mtrsteve]

2 hours ago, Trunkbass said:

So would it be Barad Dur instead of Rivendell or in addition to?

Noone knows! Rivendell still also just a rumor. If there really are leaked pictures of a barad dur box art though, could suggest that's what we're getting first. Time will tell.

22 minutes ago, Sneakguest said:

I just want a Balrog! A molded one! Then I can rest i peace!

I know @Balrogofmorgoth said he would puke if they do a bigfig style molded Balrog, but I think that could actually work pretty well. If you look up the 'mungus' bigfig from Chima, it gives me hope that they could do some pretty sick one off molds. If the 'head' was a helmet piece like that one, you could even reuse it in your own MOCs.

[RichardGoring]

55 minutes ago, Something_Awesome said:

With all that said, it is hard to imagine LotR staying exclusively as an 18+ line. If there are two UCS-sized sets coming out, I think that serves as a good omen for smaller sets. Example, the UCS At-At. You need like 8 snow trooper battle packs for that thing just like you'd need to find a way to get more orc for Barad-Dur. This is what I mean when 18+ sets and sets for kids piggy back off each other. And licensors of big IP's highly value exposing their franchises to children. 

That's a good point, and likely decent money to be made by doing it.

[BrickBob Studpants]

1 hour ago, Something_Awesome said:

Yeah, you definitely don't know about the pipeline.

I meant the immediate pipeline, as in this year  Of course nobody except them knows what's coming in future years.

Sure, there could be playsets in 2024 or beyond, but why start with an Icons set and Brickheadz?

[Balrogofmorgoth]

I’m not buyin it. I’ve seen some really good fakes before. And IF it’s real then the Rivendell rumor is wrong. There’s no way both are possible.

[BrickBob Studpants]

14 minutes ago, Balrogofmorgoth said:

And IF it’s real then the Rivendell rumor is wrong. There’s no way both are possible.

I'd be more than okay with that. Don't get me wrong, Rivendell is amazing, but Barad-dûr would make for a much cooler $500 set

Edited January 31, 2023 by BrickBob Studpants

[sebastian666]

8 hours ago, BrickBob Studpants said:

Just to clarify, @Clone OPatra vouches for the recent rumours, so there might be something to it after all  

I‘m still taking it with the biggest non-lethal dose of salt imaginable! Actually, I‘d much rather have a Barad-Dûr as opposed to a Rivendell set, but maybe that’s just me

Where did @CloneO Patra vouch for the recent rumors? I don’t see anything here in the forum - was it in a direct message? I’d love to hear his interpretation of the photos… I still find this hard to believe, but I would love to get both a D2C Rivendell and a D2C Barad-Dur this year.

[BrickBob Studpants]

3 minutes ago, sebastian666 said:

Where did @CloneO Patra vouch for the recent rumors? 

Over in the Disney thread  He says the pictures look convincing, but also recommends remaining sceptical

If it’s a hoax, it’s a very elaborate one. Like a sting operation. Nobody creates fake leaks just to try and convince a mod on EB, they’d usually proudly present them on IG

[Clone OPatra]

Yes anyone curious can read my remarks here.

If I wasn't clear enough in that post, there's no indication that any of this stuff will ever be released, nor if it is released, when. Provided it's real, that is.

[TheKingPorg]

Well, I really do hope that we do end up getting Barad-Dur, but I will remain skeptical until we get any more information. It is a good sign, though a small and not at all confirming that the images look at least plausible. If we do end up getting it, I would not be surprised if it is in addition to Rivendell. I think I stated this a while back, but I could see this theme become similar to Star Wars minus the playsets, with one or two D2Cs and a couple smaller things a year. What would surprise me would be if Rivendell turns out to be false, as we already have the piece count, price and release date, and I can’t remember an instance where we have all this information about a set and it turned out to be false. Of course anything is possible though. 

[Clone OPatra]

I don't know why anyone would think this alleged info has any impact on Rivendell.

Rivendell is super duper confirmed by very reliable sources.

[A_Forest_of_Lego]

4 hours ago, Sneakguest said:

I just want a Balrog! A molded one! Then I can rest i peace!

Oh thanks, now I can't get that awesome image out of my head and I want one!

[Balrogofmorgoth]

1 hour ago, Clone OPatra said:

I don't know why anyone would think this alleged info has any impact on Rivendell.

Rivendell is super duper confirmed by very reliable sources.

Reliable sources can be wrong, it happens all the time. If there is a Barad-Dûr D2C set coming and there are images circulating, then it would stand to reason that it is releasing fairly soon. Two D2C sets back to back for the same theme (also a new theme) is highly unlikely so if it’s true then most likely Rivendell is not the set releasing in March. But that’s still a huge IF

[Clone OPatra]

25 minutes ago, Balrogofmorgoth said:

 If there is a Barad-Dûr D2C set coming and there are images circulating, then it would stand to reason that it is releasing fairly soon. 

No it wouldn't. Those are wild conclusions that you are drawing based on extremely sketchy information.

Please read my post on these new rumours in the Disney thread, which I linked higher up on this page and even reiterated right here in this thread that there's no indication on release timeline, if the stuff is real at all.

For what it's worth I can completely see LEGO having Rivendell releasing this year, and another D2C in mid-development now for release next year IF Rivendell does well. It would take too long to wait for the sales numbers to come back and only then start development, because that could push the follow-up set off by a year. They'd have something part-way there and then decide whether or not to proceed based on sales and other factors. A theme that consists of a yearly D2C isn't beyond the pale of imagination. They already do that with in-house stuff like the modular buildings, winter sets, etc. No reason they couldn't with a Licensed theme too.

[RichardGoring]

The way it's been described, as a product survey, suggests that it's for pipeline stuff, not sets planned for release. For planned sets, they know the pricing and release schedule already. Whereas, they'd probably do surveys for ideas in the pipeline about how people respond to different themes, sets, and price points, which is what is supposed to have gone on here.

[Something_Awesome]

2 hours ago, Balrogofmorgoth said:

Reliable sources can be wrong, it happens all the time. If there is a Barad-Dûr D2C set coming and there are images circulating, then it would stand to reason that it is releasing fairly soon. Two D2C sets back to back for the same theme (also a new theme) is highly unlikely so if it’s true then most likely Rivendell is not the set releasing in March. But that’s still a huge IF

Sound logic.

1 hour ago, Clone OPatra said:

No it wouldn't. Those are wild conclusions that you are drawing based on extremely sketchy information.

Please read my post on these new rumours in the Disney thread, which I linked higher up on this page and even reiterated right here in this thread that there's no indication on release timeline, if the stuff is real at all.

For what it's worth I can completely see LEGO having Rivendell releasing this year, and another D2C in mid-development now for release next year IF Rivendell does well. It would take too long to wait for the sales numbers to come back and only then start development, because that could push the follow-up set off by a year. They'd have something part-way there and then decide whether or not to proceed based on sales and other factors. A theme that consists of a yearly D2C isn't beyond the pale of imagination. They already do that with in-house stuff like the modular buildings, winter sets, etc. No reason they couldn't with a Licensed theme too.

It is not a wild conclusion. It is completely feasible for the info leaks on a LotR D2C having been “lost in translation” and we get a Barad-Dur instead of Rivendell. And again, the implications were that there are pictures of Barad-Dur before Rivendell pictures (someone said you had seen pictures). Ok. Fine. It’s not bizarre, in and of it self, to have tangible evidence of a Barad-dur set before Rivendell even though we may get a Rivendell set first. However, you’re defense is “well it could be a 2024 release.” That makes it strange.

I don’t need to come to anyone’s defense, but Balrogofmorgoth was not wrong in his interpretations of the leaks (if the leaks are true). And that’s the other thing, these are estimations, not conclusions. It is also reasonable to estimate that Barad-Dur would release soon, or before Rivendell, with there being pictures… In January. It’s January. Again… January. Barad-dur being released in 2024 makes much more sense, should LEGO decide to release such a set. But given the information from another poster about what you saw, it suggests a 2023 release. A 2023 Rivendell AND Barad-dur (which would at most be 7 months apart) is not believable unless one of them is system scale. 

I hope this walkthrough of logic helped.

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by Something_Awesome

[Clone OPatra]

@Something_Awesome Dude. Why so combative and patronizing? Other people report your posts for your tone and they're not out of line for doing so. Keep it going and we'll have a private chat, because someone making a thread unpleasant for everyone isn't tolerated.

Believe what you want to believe. I have already explained myself, politely. If you care to weigh in about speculative stuff you haven't seen, you must also do so politely.

[mtrsteve]

7 hours ago, RichardGoring said:

The way it's been described, as a product survey, suggests that it's for pipeline stuff, not sets planned for release. For planned sets, they know the pricing and release schedule already. Whereas, they'd probably do surveys for ideas in the pipeline about how people respond to different themes, sets, and price points, which is what is supposed to have gone on here.

I don't think that aspect (it being a product survey that was 'leaked' and not an actual set box art) had been mentioned here. I think without that piece of info @Balrogofmorgoths logic was reasonable. In any case I think we are all remaining skeptical and just having some fun postulating what *could* be.