Mafia School- Mad Monster Mansion: Day One

[Trekkie99]

Well I'm not sure if any new developments are going to come out with our current vote stats, so I'm going to change my vote.

Unvote: Maws (mediumsnowman)

Vote: Dracula (Rider Racer)

[Trekkie99]

With eight hours left in the day (I believe?), I want my suspicion of @Khscarymovie4 to be noted. I find her suspicious for the same reasons others have probably noticed, and for reasons that others may not have noticed. 

Most notably, is that I think her current behavior, when compared next to her previous lives, points her in the direction of being mafia and not town. 

I wanted to say this now because if I turn up dead in the morning, my suspicions will have been noted, and undoubtedly I'll have been viewed as a threat to the mafia, hence why I was killed. 

On the flip side, this won't prove she's scum. The mafia may take advantage of this by killing me, and then frame zombie bride with my murder in the morning. So make sure to bear this in mind.

Or I'll live thru the night and my little catch 22 scenario will have worked.

[jluck]

8 hours ago, Actor Builder said:

I forgot about the non-voting penalty.

I never cared for a first day lynch either.

Let's just vote for each other then, eh, bud?

Vote: Zombie Cheerleader (@jluck)

I can work with that for now, just to avoid a penalty. 

Vote: The Mummy (Actor Builder)

 

P.S. Wow, just realized I attached an image to my post. Guess you all can see what my students are working on

[Forresto]

No Day One lynch means we have no information to go off of tomorrow.

Which means we will be blind in our town vote. 

This is the only day we can risk lynching a civilian without it hurting us too badly if it happens.

We won't have this opportunity later, when every civilian is fundamental to victory.  

Every day from here on out the scum will be taking us out one by one, unless there's a blocker and even then only if the blocker is lucky in their picks.

These are my final words on this. 

If anyone else agrees, please be more vocal, because the day is closing fast.

[jluck]

49 minutes ago, Forresto said:

No Day One lynch means we have no information to go off of tomorrow.

Which means we will be blind in our town vote. 

This is the only day we can risk lynching a civilian without it hurting us too badly if it happens.

We won't have this opportunity later, when every civilian is fundamental to victory.  

Every day from here on out the scum will be taking us out one by one, unless there's a blocker and even then only if the blocker is lucky in their picks.

These are my final words on this. 

If anyone else agrees, please be more vocal, because the day is closing fast.

It doesn't mean no information. Sure, the general public will still be in the dark, but it buys a day for the PRs to start gathering information. Day 1 kills are almost always town.

[fhomess]

10 hours ago, Actor Builder said:

I forgot about the non-voting penalty.

I never cared for a first day lynch either.

Let's just vote for each other then, eh, bud?

Vote: Zombie Cheerleader (@jluck)

Unvote: Zombie Groom (Forresto)

Vote: The Mummy (Actor Builder)

The only reason to vote for the Cheerleader is if you think she's flat out lying about being the town miller.  You don't bother to address that at all, and if you believe it then you really ought to being shouting at the rest of us to join you.

If you're just voting for her as a throwaway vote then you're being even less useful than everyone else, who is at least voting for people with some semblance of a reason.  You're giving us absolutely nothing to look back on and analyze later, which is about as scummy as can be.  You're not helping town at all.

I came here all ready to vote for Dracula just to get us a lynch today, but I really can't ignore this.

 

As far as lynching vs. not lynching day 1, I decided to do a bit of a thought experiment on when a day 1 lynch makes sense and when it doesn't.  There are two assumptions that I think are relevant:

1. Scum will always kill a townie or neutral party.
2. Town loses after a certain number of mislynches.

That number can be affected by SK or Vig kills, as well as blocks or protections.

In an extremely simplified model I see two reasonably likely alignment distributions:

There are 14 of us here, so:

1. Assuming 10 town, 4 scum, and no vig, we can mislynch 3 times maximum.  No lynch gets us an extra day.
2. Assuming 10 town, 3 scum, and an SK, we can mislynch 4 times maximum.  No lynch doesn't guarantee us an extra day.

I think distribution 2 is more likely, so I'm in favor of lynching.

[Lady K]

21 hours ago, Actor Builder said:

A vote given without explanation deserves a vote given without reason, eh?

But now that I've explained a reason, the bit's up.

UNVOTE:Frankenstein's Monster (LegoRacer1)

Ephemeral fun, i suppose. 

???

13 hours ago, Actor Builder said:

I'm also non-voting at the time of this consensus, I believe.

So you vote no reason, then unvote with the confusion above....and don't give a vote on someone else.

13 hours ago, jluck said:

Join the team

Honestly, to avoid the penalty I'll place a vote, however, I have no strong conviction at this time. As I've argued in prior games, I'm not sold on the necessity of a day 1 lynch. If we must lynch, I will target inactivity as that is useless to the town.

So, you prefer a no-lynch, ok that is your opinion.  However, based on the last lifetime I disagree.  But you state you are willing to target inactivity useless to town.

10 hours ago, Actor Builder said:

I forgot about the non-voting penalty.

I never cared for a first day lynch either.

Let's just vote for each other then, eh, bud?

Vote: Zombie Cheerleader (@jluck)

And this is helpful how exactly????

1 hour ago, jluck said:

I can work with that for now, just to avoid a penalty. 

Vote: The Mummy (Actor Builder)

 

P.S. Wow, just realized I attached an image to my post. Guess you all can see what my students are working on

So rather thank voting inactivity that is useless to town (your words above), you think this is helpful to town  ....how?????

P.S.  Do we get extra points for answering the above test question correctly????

1 hour ago, Forresto said:

No Day One lynch means we have no information to go off of tomorrow.

Which means we will be blind in our town vote. 

This is the only day we can risk lynching a civilian without it hurting us too badly if it happens.

We won't have this opportunity later, when every civilian is fundamental to victory.  

Every day from here on out the scum will be taking us out one by one, unless there's a blocker and even then only if the blocker is lucky in their picks.

These are my final words on this. 

If anyone else agrees, please be more vocal, because the day is closing fast.

I do agree.... and it would be more helpful than three days of no lynch for fear of lynching a townie.....which recent memory says was extremely hurtful to town.

36 minutes ago, jluck said:

It doesn't mean no information. Sure, the general public will still be in the dark, but it buys a day for the PRs to start gathering information. Day 1 kills are almost always town.

How exactly?  Recent events showed that town killed itself by fear of lynching a townie.  Yes, I don't like it but the memory of three days of townie lynching fear remain strong; I don't want a repeat of that.  Sad but true, first days lynches are more townie than scum. It is still better than the possibility of a Day 2 no lynch and so on.

 

The duel 'hey lets vote for each other' is one of the scummiest non helpful to town things I have seen in awhile!  Both the zombiecheerleader and the mummy should be watched closely.  And I'll switch my  vote to either if the town wants to go that direction.

[Rider Raider]

1 hour ago, Forresto said:

No Day One lynch means we have no information to go off of tomorrow.

If information is so important, then why were you trying to push “vote Dracula or don’t vote”? That doesn’t seem like it would produce much information. 

1 hour ago, Forresto said:

Which means we will be blind in our town vote. 

Not completely blind. There will likely be a kill, and all of the power roles will probably do things over night.

1 hour ago, Forresto said:

This is the only day we can risk lynching a civilian

Just because we can lynch someone doesn’t mean that we should. Mislynches help the scum in the long run, and might make the town lose time. 

1 hour ago, Forresto said:

without it hurting us too badly if it happens.

You don’t know that.

1 hour ago, Forresto said:

We won't have this opportunity later, when every civilian is fundamental to victory.  

Or we could not waste an essential townie just because we can. I have never seen the day one lynch’s voting patterns be used for anything important in my mafia career. Granted, I haven’t played much, but I’m not new.

1 hour ago, Forresto said:

Every day from here on out the scum will be taking us out one by one, unless there's a blocker and even then only if the blocker is lucky in their picks.

Exactly, which is why we shouldn’t help them by lynching a townie.

[KotZ]

16 minutes ago, Rider Raider said:

I have never seen the day one lynch’s voting patterns be used for anything important in my mafia career. Granted, I haven’t played much, but I’m not new.

I believe in one of the recent games that they might have helped, but I'm not too sure.

[Rider Raider]

19 minutes ago, KotZ said:

I believe in one of the recent games that they might have helped, but I'm not too sure.

I didn’t look at Trial by Jury, but maybe I should give it a read.

[Lady K]

33 minutes ago, Rider Raider said:

If information is so important, then why were you trying to push “vote Dracula or don’t vote”? That doesn’t seem like it would produce much information. 

Not completely blind. There will likely be a kill, and all of the power roles will probably do things over night.

Just because we can lynch someone doesn’t mean that we should. Mislynches help the scum in the long run, and might make the town lose time. 

You don’t know that.

Or we could not waste an essential townie just because we can. I have never seen the day one lynch’s voting patterns be used for anything important in my mafia career. Granted, I haven’t played much, but I’m not new.

Exactly, which is why we shouldn’t help them by lynching a townie.

You are correct here in several points.  Lynches always help the scum and lose an innocent townie vote; however Day 1 is almost always a townie by default (although I have seen a scum lynched Day 1 before) the thinking is that one or more scum will jump on the bandwagon Day 1.  So it is looking more at who jumps on the bandwagon and when is how the votes will be analyzed on later days.

My concern here is previously a no-lynch was chosen for that reason of losing a townie; and then it repeated Day 2 and it threatened to repeat on Day 3.  However, two days of a no lynch killed the town in the end; I don't want to see a repeat of that.  

If you have a reason why you shouldn't be lynched today or a better person to lynch then I am listening.  Otherwise we still have a party infiltrated with scum not looking for fun, and we have to work together to find them.

[jluck]

I'm not saying we should have a no lynch beyond 1, that's what ruined us last game, just that the longer I play the more I disagree with a night 1 lynch.

[Trekkie99]

Around two and a half hours left in the day. 

[KotZ]

Could we please get a vote tally before the end of the day?

[Kintobor]

Current Vote Count:

Dracula (Rider Racer): 6 votes (Lady K, Lord Duvors, Forresto, KotZ, Steamdemon, LegoMonorailFan)
Frankenstein's Monster (LegoRacer1): 2 votes (mediumsnowman, Tariq j)
Swamp Creature (KotZ): 1 votes (Khscarymovie8)
Zombie Groom (Forresto): 1 votes (Rider Raider)
Zombie Cheerleader (jluck): 1 votes (Actor Builder)
The Mummy (Actor Builder): 2 Votes (jluck, fhomess)


With 14 players left, it takes a majority of 8 votes to lynch someone. 2 Hours Remain.

Edited March 8, 2018 by Kintobor

[fhomess]

Unvote: The Mummy (Actor Builder)

Vote: Dracula (Rider Raider) (host... you keep calling him Racer for some reason...)

I still find the Mummy's vote extremely scummy, but I'm behind a Day 1 lynch and I haven't seen a compelling reason that we should not make an effort.  Our PR's need to whittle down the field... they can typically only get information on one other person per night.  Reducing that pool can help narrow the field down more quickly so that we can identify the scum among us.

To those that say that Day 1 lynches don't usually help us analyze voting patterns, I think it's not that different than Day 2 or 3 townie lynches.  You learn the most from lynching scum.  Townie lynches are much hard to analyze in general.  I can think of a few times where Day 1 has lynched scum with about the same amount of information we have today.

[Kintobor]

Current Vote Count:

Dracula (Rider Raider): 7 votes (Lady K, Lord Duvors, Forresto, KotZ, Steamdemon, LegoMonorailFan, Fhomess)
Frankenstein's Monster (LegoRacer1): 2 votes (mediumsnowman, Tariq j)
Swamp Creature (KotZ): 1 votes (Khscarymovie8)
Zombie Groom (Forresto): 1 votes (Rider Raider)
Zombie Cheerleader (jluck): 1 votes (Actor Builder)
The Mummy (Actor Builder): 2 Votes (jluck)


With 14 players left, it takes a majority of 8 votes to lynch someone. 2 Hours Remain.

[Tariq j]

I've seen previous parties where we didn't get a lynch on the first night, and that dragged into the second and into the third. I don't want that to happen again. 

Unvote: Frankenstein (Legoracer1)

Vote: Dracula (Rider Raider) 

 

[Kintobor]

Final Vote Count:

Dracula (Rider Raider): 8 votes (Lady K, Lord Duvors, Forresto, KotZ, Steamdemon, LegoMonorailFan, Fhomess, Tariq j)
Frankenstein's Monster (LegoRacer1): 1 votes (mediumsnowman)
Swamp Creature (KotZ): 1 vote (Khscarymovie8)
Zombie Groom (Forresto): 1 vote (Rider Raider)
Zombie Cheerleader (jluck): 1 vote (Actor Builder)
The Mummy (Actor Builder): 1 Votes (jluck)

Non-voting: LegoRacer1 (Will begin Day 2 with a 5-vote Penalty for not voting)

With 14 players left, it takes a majority of 8 votes to lynch someone. With a majority vote, Dracula (Rider Raider) is lynched. Night One has now begun. You have 48 to get night actions in.

edit: crud, didn't see Tariq j's vote. Fixed!

Edited March 8, 2018 by Kintobor