Hello Ya'll. So I put everything into a spreadsheet to figure things out. This is all the data. I calculated everything assuming your freebee doesn't pay upkeep on runs, which may be wrong, and drag you into more debt. Here's all the data.
Name
Ships Score
Ships total
Upkeep
Profit
Total
Extra
Ayrlego
10
2
122
230
108
Bastion
4
1
5
18
13
BlackDeathGR
8
3
55
273
218
Bodi
9
3
55
40
-15
Captured Ship!
Bregir
34
9
712
308
-404
Lost a Class 4
Breshaun
5
1
5
109
104
Brickwolf
2
1
0
30
30
Capt Wolf
15
3
310
845
535
Captain Genaro
9
2
75
108
33
Charlatan Bay
4
1
0
13
13
Dukesc
41
10
1637
834
-803
Lost 2 class 7, class 2
Elyzabethtowne
0
1
0
22
22
ETTC
17
4
320
211
-109
Lost Class 3
Faladrin
5
2
0
35
35
Flavius Gratian
2
1
0
0
0
Sank
Garmadon
5
2
0
230
230
gedryn_y
7
2
5
117
112
gulagurag
6
2
0
27
27
Lost Class 4
Kai NRG
8
2
40
192
152
Kaiju
7
2
5
83
78
Kings Harbour
2
2
0
14
14
Captured Ship!
KolonialBeamter
40
6
1850
1439
-411
Lost Class 7
Kot_Z
7
2
5
25
20
Lost Class 5
Kwatchi
8
2
35
40
5
Captured 2 Ships!
Legostone
29
4
360
1035
675
MAESTRO
8
2
50
461
411
Maxim I
9
3
25
439
414
MCTC
14
3
242
725
483
Lost Class 6
Mesabi
10
2
122
180
58
Is Awesome
Mike S
9
2
90
116
26
MKJoshA
26
4
662
18
-644
Lost Class 7, 2
Phred
31
10
905
686
-219
Lost Class 6
Pombe
4
1
0
0
0
Lost
Professor Thaum
6
2
0
81
81
Lost Class 4
Puvel
5
2
0
216
216
Rassilion
4
1
0
37
37
RNTC
14
3
227
338
111
Sebeus I
2
1
0
0
0
Sank
SilentWolf
21
5
220
428
208
Lost Class 3
Sir Stig
7
2
5
35
30
Spud the Viking
2
1
0
34
34
Umbra Mantis
7
2
5
439
434
Link to my data https://docs.google.com/a/d.umn.edu/spreadsheets/d/1eJn44HDfrZswK7VEGfUn3r3HuOiL6g_n1FDaYzRNBG4/edit?usp=sharing
Couple thoughts on the data. Again, not clear on the whole freebee upkeep costs. Second, losing a ship adds a lot of loss. And a lot of people lost ships... Finally, I didn't do data for the factions. Searats were the only faction with trade ships, but they certainly lost a lot as well.
Here's a scatterplot. Notice how scores decrease as ship levels rise....
Screen Shot 2017-10-28 at 1.38.47 AM by North White, on Flickr
The highest profit by anyone was @Legostone, who did it with 29 ship levels. The Second and third place came from MCTC at 14 levels, and @Capt Wolf at 15. Additionally, MCTC lost a class 6 ship!
The Secret? I'll get to that...
Ship cost versus levels
Screen Shot 2017-10-28 at 1.39.02 AM by North White, on Flickr
Look how exponentially expensive having a large fleet is!
So, thoughts. Earlier tonight I mentioned a strategy of having 2 class "2s" and a class 4. I'll refer you back to the first graph. Check out the three dots above the main pack. Those dots each made almost the same amount as adding another class 4 would. Thus, I give you the sweetspot. Any combination of ships that has an upkeep score of less than 125 before being calculated, should make a profit.
I would propose 2 class 2s (one free!) and a class 4 to defend them. This gives you a score of 105 (Again, assuming no upkeep on one of them) which only takes 5 Dbs out of your profit. These can be supplemented with a few class "0s" or "1s" which could hold extra cargo points and perhaps generate more revenue. addtitionally, more ships means a less likely chance of losing your entire investment.
The ships in the sweet spot I mentioned?
@Maxim I: 4, 2 (free), 3. Total Upkeep? 25 Dbs
MAESTRO: 4, 4 Total Upkeep? 50 Dbs
@Umbra-Manis: 3, 4: Total Upkeep? 25 Dbs
Obviously, we can't control external factors such as pirates, but we can control how we go to ports. And right now? Fleets of three are in. Additionally, the whole five or more rule prevents larger fleets without having to pay more. To have a group of five or more costs another 100 Dbs.
I already mentioned this, but I think that operating large ships shouldn't be so prohibitively expensive, especially as they're currently functionally useless in a TMCRA. I mean with a one in seven loss rate, I can't afford to send out a big fat ship with high cargo stats. And, as anything above a "5" starts getting really expensive, I just can't seem to find a good way to get it to work. Maybe @Legostone has a trick...
I might analyze the data further more to take into account for ports, but this is just going over costs for ships and whatnot. Please correct me if I screwed up. It's 2AM and I should sleep.
Finally, Please note that this isn't me complaining or praising the game mechanics. This is just me plugging values into a sheet, and telling you what I make of them.