What sets do you think are a good investment right now?

[Fuppylodders]

On 08/11/2016 at 5:12 AM, Crazy Packers Fan said:

On a related topic, there are a few sets I want (to build, not to resell). I'm wondering whether they will be discontinued soon or not, and I was wondering if anyone could give me their best guess. Just wondering if I should buy them now or later. Those sets are:

• Fairground Mixer
• Ferris Wheel
• Architecture Studio
• Lincoln Memorial
• Louvre

Any educated guesses would help. Thanks!

I saw that at least in the uk, the fairground mixer showed as retiring soon. I'd grab that first, especially as it looks like it has a lot of fun different and interesting builds with lots of features (not sure what ticks your boxes). But personally, the architecture sets don't interest me in the slightest, so I'm afraid I can't comment on when they will be retiring.

 

[Big G]

7 hours ago, Fuppylodders said:

I saw that at least in the uk, the fairground mixer showed as retiring soon. I'd grab that first, especially as it looks like it has a lot of fun different and interesting builds with lots of features (not sure what ticks your boxes). But personally, the architecture sets don't interest me in the slightest, so I'm afraid I can't comment on when they will be retiring.

It's retiring soon on the US site too.  The fairground mixer is a great build and real fun to play with.  Turn out the lights in a room and run tt in the dark.  If you've got kids and limited space it's also great because it folds up onto just a couple of trucks so you can park it out of the way without dismantling it.  If you haven't already, go to Lego's youtube channel and watch the Designer Video for this set where Jamie shows you all the cool features.  If you like your sets to be powered instead of hand cranked pick up an M Motor and battery pack at the same time.

For an "OMFG how did he think of all that?" experience as you put it together it's in my mind the best currently available Creator set

Edited November 14, 2016 by Big G

[Tupiaz]

On 8. november 2016 at 1:30 AM, Japanbuilder said:

This seems really hard to determine to me. In Japan information is not always transparent regarding the longevity of sets. So it is hard to tell which sets have been flying off the shelves collectively (and thus not making them as rare relative to other sets) and which ones haven't. 

When sets are due to retire seems to be guesswork too. Some are up for years some are gone in a year. How to determine this also seems difficult at times for some themes. 

But I would imagine given the popularity of LEGO most sets if they appreciate will do so slowly as they may not be as rare as people think. I notice prices only tend to go up once a fairly large set is ready for retirement. 

So as with most investments at least where I am, it is fully 100% buyer beware. Go with the recommendations that seem the most reasonable but be aware that some sets will be slow to rack up value. 

Generally speaking more expensive sets are on shelves for a long period of time (years) smaller ones disappear with in a year - year and a half. 

[Kopp4Live]

In my opinion it is the ideas tree house right now. Unfortunately its life was extended twice and the new end of life date seems to be 2023 according to this investment review. The set is one of my favourites over the last few years and I think other AFOLs will like it too.

[MAB]

I wouldn't touch the tree house for investment. It has been around ages, during a period of high popularity of LEGO. I know people say it is the next Old Fishing Store, but even though it was just a few years before that one was a completely different time for LEGO investing. So many non-LEGO people are investing in LEGO right now, popularity is at an all time high while the set is out. Of course, I'm not sure how many more new people will get into LEGO in the coming years but I doubt the increase will be anywhere near as big as over the covid period. Instead of the behaviour over covid times - people being at home and not able to spend money on large purchases like holidays - now people are spending on holidays, there is the cost of living increasing, rising energy costs, etc. These are not things that are going to help bring in new people to LEGO, wanting to buy overpriced sets of the past. I have no doubt you can make a little on selling the tree house when it finally retires. Whether it is enough to be worth it depends on what returns you are willing to make.

[Johnny1360]

Lol, my unpopular opinion, the bloated cow of LEGO investment, is an unsustainable, house of cards, ponzi scheme, that will inevitably come crashing down, leaving in it's wake a downward spiraling price war for semi-old sets. 

For this day I patiently wait, with my pocket full of cash.

[MAB]

No doubt lots of people are waiting for a price crash to buy LEGO originally bought as an investment. Which keeps the price up.

[MAB]

42 minutes ago, SanirMalon said:

It reminded me of beating the challenge in forex. Cooperation with a broker reduces the risks at the first steps in investment trading because you invest your money under the professional's guidance.

Bearing in mind the "broker" here will be getting about 6 or 7% commission on what you pay for it and so they might try to convince you to spend as much as possible on their picks. So just like real financial investments, you have to remember the broker is out to make money for themselves and not for you. Most sets will go up a little on retirement, so picking ones that do is not a skill. Convincing people to buy them through commission links is the real skill.

And remember a set has to increase by about 10% (excluding postage) before you have broken even.

The Fairground Mixer retired six years ago. The RRP was £120. The average selling price over the last six months for a new set was £187. Bricklink and paypal fees will be about £13. So that is down to £174. If you sold one now for £187 ("over 50% increase, that's huge!") that is about 6.4% average growth per year. Better than keeping cash, but not great considering the space and work necessary to store it and sell it. Especially when you think worldwide 36 sold in six months, and there are 110 still on BL - so about three years worth at the current sales rate. And all this is completely ignoring taxes that might be due.

Whereas if you bought it at 30% off or got a decent GWP at the time of similar value, the average growth per year is about 13%. It shows that the return rate is more about the price you can buy the set at than being told the right sets to buy at RRP.

Edited November 8, 2022 by MAB

[Toastie]

13 hours ago, MAB said:

It shows that the return rate is more about the price you can buy the set at than being told the right sets to buy at RRP.

Wow.

I play with LEGO.

Best,
Thorsten

[MAB]

10 hours ago, Toastie said:

Wow.

I play with LEGO.

Best,
Thorsten

So do I. I play with my LEGO. But I also invest in it to help fund future purchases.

And this is a thread about investing. The clue is in the title and the previous posts. There are plenty of other threads about playing with LEGO.

Edited November 9, 2022 by MAB

[alois]

6 hours ago, MAB said:

So do I. I play with my LEGO. But I also invest in it to help fund future purchases.

And this is a thread about investing. The clue is in the title and the previous posts. There are plenty of other threads about playing with LEGO.

Nevertheless, it's not a bad thing to be reminded once in a while that it's a bizarre thing to speculate with a children's toy instead of playing with it.

[MAB]

3 hours ago, alois said:

Nevertheless, it's not a bad thing to be reminded once in a while that it's a bizarre thing to speculate with a children's toy instead of playing with it.

I think it is better to have a place for people wanting to discuss investing since that keeps it out of other threads where building and playing is being discussed. Plus making a living or making hobby money on products that you understand the market for is not that bizarre. 

It is one of those things that if you don't like investing, then don't read investing threads just like if you don't like technic then don't visit the technic sub-forum.

[Toastie]

10 hours ago, MAB said:

And this is a thread about investing. The clue is in the title and the previous posts.

Oh, be rest assured, I saw that. What I was trying to (implicitly) say was: I never ever thought about these things, and I am simply not good as these things. And I am truly amazed by such an assessment! See, I am a chemist. And when somebody lays out things I never think about, I say: Wow.

I did not say, there is something wrong about that!!! I am sorry when that came not appropriately across!!!

Here is to feeling good:

All the best,
Thorsten

Upps - just saw your reply to @alois - it was not about liking, it was about not knowing virtually anything about it. I am a live-long learner. And I believe in go where things may not be in your universe. To possibly expand. Or at least get a grasp. That was all.

Edited November 9, 2022 by Toastie

[MAB]

Fortunately I invested mainly in stuff I like. When LOTR was out and being cleared at 50% off (sometimes more), I bought loads. If I like it, others will like it. My view was if it sells for decent money, I'll sell it. If it doesn't, I'll use it.

These days it is nice that if I want a £50 set, I can sell or trade a Wizard Battle or Witch King Battle (paid £6 each). If I want a £100 set, out comes an Uruk Hai Army (£12). A couple of months ago I wanted to extend Lonely Mountain. Out comes a spare set (£50) and selling just three figures makes the rest of the set free. And the next time I want a £200 set, the spare Smaug can fly off.

I bought 16 of the business card holder set on clearance as I thought the letter tiles might be useful one day. I've kept about 5 sets worth for my own use. But now some of the individual 1x1 tiles sell new for more than the complete sets cost me. Back when Roman soldiers were selling for £3-4 on ebay, I bought loads again thinking I'll either use them or sell when the time is right. Same with Team GB, Shakespeare, Forest Maidens, Classic Kings, many CMFs ... It turns out Shakespeare has a good torso and legs for historical figures, so I kept them. But the tile, head and bald hairpiece sell for what I paid for the complete sets. There have been a few duds (Simpsons S2, and most DFB have really dropped), but if you buy at the right price, you can still break even on those too.

Investing is great for your own collection if you do it right.

[ks6349]

I am a Lego fans and I am not able to judge and predict the value of a Lego set fairly without any personal preference. I resell Lego sets because I am always unhappy about the price of Lego because I think they are earning too much. Sometimes when they have big sales you'll probably spend less than 50% for the same set bought, and for the discounted price they sell they are certainly not losing money, but just earning less for clearance. This is the reason I buy and resell so that I can get my toys for less in the long run. If you totally rely on selling Lego to make a living, you should contact the direct supplier for a real price that they can give to the retailers. Selling retired sets as an individual isn't a way go.

However, I am still experiencing hard time selling retired Lego sets, since I only buy the themes I like e.g. Creator Expert, City and Star wars. and I only buy and stock a lot of sets that I think it's too nice, e.g. City mobile crane, barn & farms.

[The Brick Boss]

If we're talking City sets, I say mostly older sets, preferably pre-2018. You may have to pay a little more out of your wallet, but it's worth it in the long run. As far as post 2018 goes, I'd say mostly town stuff such as the doughnut shop, main square and grocery store is worth it. I'd also consider the train station from this year - which in my opinion, is the best train station ever done. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Poodabricks

[MAB]

On 11/10/2022 at 8:12 AM, ks6349 said:

If you totally rely on selling Lego to make a living, you should contact the direct supplier for a real price that they can give to the retailers. Selling retired sets as an individual isn't a way go.

However, I am still experiencing hard time selling retired Lego sets, since I only buy the themes I like e.g. Creator Expert, City and Star wars. and I only buy and stock a lot of sets that I think it's too nice, e.g. City mobile crane, barn & farms.

What do you mean by direct supplier? As LEGO won't sell to individuals or small businesses at trade prices. Even physical toy stores must stock a range of other brands and get very little choice about sets they can take and when if buying from LEGO. Small retailers pay more than bug ones, get less choice over what they can order and usually get stock months after larger retailers making it harder for them to sell.

It is possible and quite easy to sell retired sets, if you bought them prior to 2018. But for more recent ones it is tough, since so many people jumped on the trend of lego investing. That has meant both more competition for selling and also for buying. Deep discounts on clearance are rare now.

[BrickBob Studpants]

I’m not a finace expert, but don’t think LEGO sets are that great of an investment anymore, overall. Sure, some old sets had been sold for eye-watering sums of money, but ever since the mainstream media caught wind of it, lots of people started to hoard sets. I’d say the average 2022 set in MINT condition will never be as valuable as a 2002 set in the same condition, simply due to scarcity. Back then, there was no real incentive for a box to be held in pristine condition, unlike now.

Also, people that only see it as an investment often lack the foresight to tell which sets might be sought after in the future. I think almost all fans predicted that the LOTR sets would be in demand again after their retirement, which is not necessarily the case for a random investor with no interest in neither the toys nor the franchise they’re based on

Then again, it’s sometimes impossible to tell, even for fans. Nobody expected the sudden spike in the popularity of Rebels years after the first season, rendering the 2014 set very desirable

[MAB]

22 minutes ago, BrickBob Studpants said:

I’m not a finace expert, but don’t think LEGO sets are that great of an investment anymore, overall. Sure, some old sets had been sold for eye-watering sums of money, but ever since the mainstream media caught wind of it, lots of people started to hoard sets. I’d say the average 2022 set in MINT condition will never be as valuable as a 2002 set in the same condition, simply due to scarcity. Back then, there was no real incentive for a box to be held in pristine condition, unlike now.

Also, people that only see it as an investment often lack the foresight to tell which sets might be sought after in the future. I think almost all fans predicted that the LOTR sets would be in demand again after their retirement, which is not necessarily the case for a random investor with no interest in neither the toys nor the franchise they’re based on

Then again, it’s sometimes impossible to tell, even for fans. Nobody expected the sudden spike in the popularity of Rebels years after the first season, rendering the 2014 set very desirable

It is harder these days. It used to be that just about any set would increase enough to make at least a little profit and many sets would do very well. These days, most will sell well enough to break even and some do better than that. This is why it really depends on the buy-in price instead of picking winners. If you can get a set that sells well enough when it is discounted by 30%, it will probably do better than most other sets at full RRP.

Maybe this is the reason for the more aggressive quick flip type behaviour seen more often these days, where some sellers try to clear shelves and create demand during the early days of the release instead of investing longer term.

It was quite amazing during the shelf-life of LOTR that not that many people seemed to be buying for longer term investment. It was possible to buy sets very cheap and minifigures from other dealers for very good prices. I was paying about $3 each for new Eomers, $5 for Rohan warriors. I even bought a bag of almost 400 mixed LOTR / Hobbit minfigures, horses, wargs, etc for £400 / about $500 at the time from someone buying sets because he wanted the bricks. About 40 were Frodo variants and about 20 of Gandalf but even so they were a great investment. But that was before non-LEGO people started to see the value. I doubt I could ever get such a deal again.

 

[Ondra]

In my opinion get good investment in lego is now joke. Not mention basic and popular stuff gets after few years overhaul making always new version better in every aspects.

 

And when I see what people expect to pay for some older sets with basic parts is always fun game, because these sets were basic stuff with few parts easily made from new bricks. Well if somebody needs these huge specialized pieces plaguing lego in late 90s its probably only way.

 

What its only making sense now is selling exclusive minifigures. This is big deal right now and lego knows it.