Gomek

Do you want the Lego collectible bubble to burst?

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I miss the days were a set could be found on a shelf in a small Toy store 2-3 years after release.

Not only that. When I recently looked up all the sets I got as a child in the mid-90s on brickset, I realized that everything was really old (by todays standard). I got sets that were produced at the end of the 80s and early 90s. And It wasn't because my parents went out of their way to look for them. Those sets were still in every toy store.

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You just said having high prices wouldn't affect collectors, but then said having reruns of figures keeps people away from collecting. TLG isnt making figures for people to horde and "invest" in. These are not stocks. TLG makes it a point to crack down on people who do things of the sort. If you buy something for your collection and it goes up so you decide to sell it that's one thing but if you're complaining that remaking figures or sets scared away investors, unless youre talking about the stock holders of TLG, they don't matter.

Not really. They don't like people buying then instantly reselling exclusives, which is why they have limits on them.

I agree that they are not making figures or sets specifically for people to horde / invest in. But then, thy aren't making figures or sets for people to play with either. They are making them to sell. That is the primary motive. I don't believe they care what people do with them, so long as they sell. They don't like exclsuives going out of stock near important events (Christmas, etc) as they get negative press / feelings when the only way to buy something is by paying 3x the price on ebay. However, they do nothing to stop other stores limiting sales or prices of non-exclusive sets to purchases (whether for play or resale). For example, I once bought 80 of a particular set in one transaction from one retailer. Lego did ntohing to crack down on that transaction. I have bought more than 20 of one set direct from lego too (in a single order), but one that they didn't really care about stock levels on.

Edited by MAB

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I don't want the bubble to burst, but I would like to see it plateau. In my perfect world, sets would be worth (used) what you payed for them new, or 10% or so more. But these craziness where sets go for high hundreds or thousands is just ridiculous. I have given up on ever getting some of the modulars, Imperial Flagship, Eiffel tower, and the statue of liberty because they are not worth the prices they go for. I would pay $250-300 or so for the IFS, but this $500-1000 stuff is for the birds.

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I don't want the bubble to burst, but I would like to see it plateau. In my perfect world, sets would be worth (used) what you payed for them new, or 10% or so more. But these craziness where sets go for high hundreds or thousands is just ridiculous. I have given up on ever getting some of the modulars, Imperial Flagship, Eiffel tower, and the statue of liberty because they are not worth the prices they go for. I would pay $250-300 or so for the IFS, but this $500-1000 stuff is for the birds.

A hundred times agreed.

It's horrendous some of these sellers mark the sets up so high. To be fair though it depends on the theme. I just sold a $100 Mars Mission set on eBay for $120 and with shipping and everything barely broke even. Certain ones sell just above market price but many dont. It's this weird extreme going on.

Mini figure prices as well. Certain minifigures are ridiculously overpriced for what they're worth.

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I hope it burst's soon and it will burst before long, every tom dick and harry has jumped on the LEGO bandwagon it annoys me as a collector and toy dealer

I struggle to buy LEGO at auctions etc for a reasonable price these days just a few years ago I could fill my car for next to nothing now I get a small box for hundreds of pounds, to be honest general LEGO has not increased that much in value its only certain sets

I know they will always be collectors but people are joining facebook groups and asking what LEGO they should collect!! I mean seriously if they have to ask and have no oppinion of there own they need to get a life they shouldn't be collecting they have no idea and just like the thought of buying what is popular!

I collect LEGO I like I don't really care about value's as long as its not worthless a small increase would be nice as mentioned by captain.

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I don't want the bubble to burst, but I would like to see it plateau.I have given up on ever getting some of the modulars, Imperial Flagship, Eiffel tower, and the statue of liberty because they are not worth the prices they go for. I would pay $250-300 or so for the IFS, but this $500-1000 stuff is for the birds.

I believe it will plateau but only for more modern / recently retired / current sets, since many sellers have invested recently. Older sets are unlikely to ever come down while they are in demand simply because of the supply vs demand. The problem is that they are worth the prices they go for, as that is what some people are willing to pay. If you don't think they are worth that much, then you will never own them as other people think they are worth more, and supply is low.

It's horrendous some of these sellers mark the sets up so high. To be fair though it depends on the theme. I just sold a $100 Mars Mission set on eBay for $120 and with shipping and everything barely broke even. Certain ones sell just above market price but many dont. It's this weird extreme going on.

Mini figure prices as well. Certain minifigures are ridiculously overpriced for what they're worth.

Sellers set prices high as (some) buyers are paying prices that high. I have sold some of my sets for 4-5x what I paid for them. Why should I take 1.1x or 1.5x or 2x when buyers are willing to pay 5x? If I sold at 2x, then the buyer could easily flip it and make significantly more and I am losing profit. I (and most resellers) also don't care what the average buyer will pay. I only really care about what the top end of the buyers will pay when selling. Of course, if the demand is low and supply is high, then serious undercutting to get rid of stock may well happen and prices drop.

And of course it depends on the theme, not just the theme but even sets within a theme. That is where investor skill comes in. Knowing what to invest in is just as important as buy-in price.

As to minifigures, I'd say all figures are over priced for what they are really worth. But again, they are typically priced to sell to the top end of the market.

I hope it burst's soon and it will burst before long, every tom dick and harry has jumped on the LEGO bandwagon it annoys me as a collector and toy dealer

I struggle to buy LEGO at auctions etc for a reasonable price these days just a few years ago I could fill my car for next to nothing now I get a small box for hundreds of pounds, to be honest general

It's more popular now, as both a toy and an investment. Does it bother you more as a collector or as a dealer? It is clear others are now dealing in it too, which means more competition for buying dealers lots (higher prices for bulk lots) and more competition when selling (lower prices when selling on). Some people are willing to work for less, so dealers that used to have it good will always find it harder. I've seen it happen in a number of areas of collectables.

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@MAB,

I realize that as long as people are willing to pay ridiculous prices for certain sets, than yes technically speaking they are "worth it." I just meant from a practical point of view, I can't EVER rationalize spending $1000 or so on any individual set. That's why I have given up on ever owning certain sets, unless they come down in price. Which they won't as long as people keep buying them for that price. But as you said supply and demand dictates it. But the thing is, it's not a HUGE market for these over priced sets. Logic would say eventually the market will dry up for them, especially since hoarders have such a large percentage of the sets. So once those sets are not selling very much anymore, if people want to make money, they will have to sell them off at a lower price.

So the moral of the story is, if you want those high priced sets (like I do) waiting a few, or even ten years, will probably be the best (and cheapest)way to get them.

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I'd be happy to see the bubble burst, but I'm not sure I want whatever would cause that to happen.

At any rate, it's moot, since it's completely out of my hands (and virtually everyone else's).

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@MAB,

I realize that as long as people are willing to pay ridiculous prices for certain sets, than yes technically speaking they are "worth it." I just meant from a practical point of view, I can't EVER rationalize spending $1000 or so on any individual set. That's why I have given up on ever owning certain sets, unless they come down in price. Which they won't as long as people keep buying them for that price. But as you said supply and demand dictates it. But the thing is, it's not a HUGE market for these over priced sets. Logic would say eventually the market will dry up for them, especially since hoarders have such a large percentage of the sets. So once those sets are not selling very much anymore, if people want to make money, they will have to sell them off at a lower price.

So the moral of the story is, if you want those high priced sets (like I do) waiting a few, or even ten years, will probably be the best (and cheapest)way to get them.

There doesn't need to be a huge market for them, there just has to be some demand within the timescale the seller wants to sell. I doubt a very high percentage are in the hands of resellers. A high percentage of the ones for sale are, but not a high percentage over all.

I have a few £500+ sealed sets, and I'll make sure that I get a high price for them. I have no need to sell them fast, so there is no worry for me if I list them for sale and they don't sell for 6-12 months. Once I spot their value has plateaued (or slowed enough), I'll sell them just so I can reinvest in something else.

If their prices drop there is usually another factor - in this case maybe a significantly better remake comes along and the interest in the old does actually go away. But in that case, would you want the old one still, or the better newer one?

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It's more popular now, as both a toy and an investment. Does it bother you more as a collector or as a dealer? It is clear others are now dealing in it too, which means more competition for buying dealers lots (higher prices for bulk lots) and more competition when selling (lower prices when selling on). Some people are willing to work for less, so dealers that used to have it good will always find it harder. I've seen it happen in a number of areas of collectables.

It's a double edged sword as a dealer I can sell lots of LEGO as its so popular but lower mark up and therefore more work, ( I saw a box of 'LEGO' that was mainly Megablo**s, about 2 kilos in all sell at auction for over £50.00 plus commission the other day no figures or anything rare apart from an incomplete hulk buster, it's crazy at auctions at the moment) In the last year I have had better deals buying model trains and diecast cars and I don't know anything about them relatively, As a collector I'm more interested in Fabuland, trains and wolf pack stuff not the UCS sets the only thing I really want is an emerald night and I will find one at a good price one day....

Edited by spzero

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One thing I haven't seen mentioned in this thread yet is the effect of a burst on the amount of AFOLs. How many of you have heard something along the lines of "I'd buy Legos as an adult, but they're just so expensive"? I know I definitely have. A lot of this sentiment is probably from currently available sets in retailers (not to open the "Is Lego more expensive now?" can of worms), but a lot of that probably also comes from those listicles you see all over the Internet that bring up how expensive the MF, modulars, etc., have gotten on the secondary market. If the bubble bursts and multi-thousand dollar/pound/euro sets become less prominent, the perceived barrier for entering the AFOL community will lower, so the community will grow.

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This is a very interesting discussion! I buy for building and collecting, but I often buy more than I can build. Every few months I look over my collection and thin it out, selling some sets (usually ones with a nice build but with boring parts). Usually sold at a profit, I admit. Usually that profit goes right back to the TLG via another purchase... I also buy older, used sets on the secondary market. Sometimes the markup is annoying, but being patient helps score a better deal (or being savvy; I've had good success making offers on newly listed items as the sellers are often new to Lego selling and want to make that really quick $).

A true burst in the market would be bad, because that would mean the demand for new Lego would go down, and new set/color/part releases would slow down.

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I don't see it about as what we want, but what will likely happen.

I understand that Lego is having a hard enough time fulfilling demand, which is likely due to AFOLs.

Kids and their parents are not buying many multiples of one set, or buying sets to part out. I think Lego's concern is that the value of the Lego secondary market is actually threatening to their ability to appropriately price sets to children and their parents without AFOLs wiping out the stock too quickly.

I figure at some point Lego will generate enough of a set to mitigate that and they will profit, but I understand they have a hard time meeting demand on bricks being created versus demand for bricks, at some point there will be an equilibrium, and generationally, possibly a crash.

I think the common theme among AFOLs is that the late 1980s and early 1990s were a golden age for a Lego, and a lot of us kids from the 1970s-1990s are coming back to Lego whether we had a dark ages or not. Adult disposable income allows us to reach back at sets that eluded us as children, and heck, why not get multiples to make an uber custom version?

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I don't see it about as what we want, but what will likely happen.

I understand that Lego is having a hard enough time fulfilling demand, which is likely due to AFOLs.

I really don't think AFOLs have that strong of an effect. For every AFOL buying a set, there are a thousand kids getting one too.

(made up statistics that are probably wrong as all heck)

Short term supply, sure, jerk scalpels are causing issues (minecraft sets during Christmas, for example), but otherwise no.

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Especially the UCS falcon. It's too expensive to remake without severely ticking off everyone who poured a couple thousand into them, but they keep people away from collecting.

TLG does not care AT ALL how much people have spent purchasing the UCS Falcon on the after market. It doesn't affect them one little bit. Nor do I for that matter. I believe there are a couple reasons a re-release has not happened yet, and neither has anything to do with the public. One, the product cycle is probably longer than we imagine. It was until well after the UCS Falcon was clearnaced off that people started paying ridiculous amounts of money for it. Maybe they are planning a re-release, but it will take years of planning, designing, etc. and they have to find a window of opportunity that does not conflict with the already scheduled pipeline of product. Second, with inflation, a release of the Falcon would be prohibitively expensive. The UCS went from $150 to $200, did it not? Logic would show a $500 set could now easily be $625.

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TLG does not care AT ALL how much people have spent purchasing the UCS Falcon on the after market. It doesn't affect them one little bit. Nor do I for that matter. I believe there are a couple reasons a re-release has not happened yet, and neither has anything to do with the public. One, the product cycle is probably longer than we imagine. It was until well after the UCS Falcon was clearnaced off that people started paying ridiculous amounts of money for it. Maybe they are planning a re-release, but it will take years of planning, designing, etc. and they have to find a window of opportunity that does not conflict with the already scheduled pipeline of product. Second, with inflation, a release of the Falcon would be prohibitively expensive. The UCS went from $150 to $200, did it not? Logic would show a $500 set could now easily be $625.

In fact, it would seem that if LEGO were to care at all, they would side with the consumer rather than the reseller. At least, that's what my conversations with LEGO employees have indicated.

I hope they do a re-release, and it does decrease the value. And I don't even want the set.

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I hope they re-release the Falcon, too. It will give them an opportunity to improve on it further.

The fact is, LEGO cannot keep every set in production indefinitely. They have to retire them at some point or we would never get anything new. They only have so much production capacity and so much market demand.

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Well, the high secondary market prices help give Lego more attention. When Lego boomed in 2013-2014, I routinely saw online articles about expensive sets on the secondary and that caused people to go all crazy and buy sets up. The more attention Lego gets and the more likely sets "appear" to be an investment, the more Lego sells.

To maintain that imagine, Lego has to prove the concept of investment, which is why they have no interest in the secondary market. Let UCS Falcon and various other sets and minifigures stay at ridiculous prices, Lego can just come out with alternative versions (rather than direct reissues) and it won't hurt the secondary, but provide even more sales.

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I really don't think AFOLs have that strong of an effect. For every AFOL buying a set, there are a thousand kids getting one too.

(made up statistics that are probably wrong as all heck)

Short term supply, sure, jerk scalpels are causing issues (minecraft sets during Christmas, for example), but otherwise no.

I've always though that Lego makes a tone more on AFOLs than they think. (Though I'm not sure we'll ever really know what the stats are). While the numbers of AFOLs is undoubtedly much, much lower than the number of kids buying Lego, I can tell you I spend more on Lego than probably 10 to 20 kids combined.

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I'm not strictly a collector, and I don't really resell Lego, so I wouldn't mind being able to pick up vintage sets on the cheap.

Edited by Junior Shark

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TLG does not care AT ALL how much people have spent purchasing the UCS Falcon on the after market. It doesn't affect them one little bit. Nor do I for that matter. I believe there are a couple reasons a re-release has not happened yet, and neither has anything to do with the public. One, the product cycle is probably longer than we imagine. It was until well after the UCS Falcon was clearnaced off that people started paying ridiculous amounts of money for it. Maybe they are planning a re-release, but it will take years of planning, designing, etc. and they have to find a window of opportunity that does not conflict with the already scheduled pipeline of product. Second, with inflation, a release of the Falcon would be prohibitively expensive. The UCS went from $150 to $200, did it not? Logic would show a $500 set could now easily be $625.

I can't argue that they care, but it 100% does affect sales, and what affects sales, affects them. When people see prices rising they view things as an investment and buy more.

Also a re-release would take next to no design work as the set is already designed.

Lego did an experiment will re-releases a while back, but it lasted less than a year. I remember Main Street and Metroliner got re-released. It would be very interesting to find out why that stopped. I remember at the time Lego was starting to become worth money and I did wonder what that was going to do to prices.

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While the numbers of AFOLs is undoubtedly much, much lower than the number of kids buying Lego, I can tell you I spend more on Lego than probably 10 to 20 kids combined.

Yes, but how many AFOLs do you know that spend that much? How many AFOLs are in your actual circle of friends? Not counting AFOLs I have met through our LUG, I know of NO other AFOLs. None from work, my friends, family members, parents from my kid's schools, parents form their sports teams, etc. Even if I purchase as many as 50 kids, I know several hundred kids with parents that don't buy LEGO at all. We are a tiny percentage of sales.

Also a re-release would take next to no design work as the set is already designed.

Yes, a set is already designed, but are parts still available? Look how hard it is to get all the parts to make one. Are all those parts currently in production? If not, could they be put back into production cheaply and easily? If not, there goes the price up even more, and your market decreases.

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In fact, it would seem that if LEGO were to care at all, they would side with the consumer rather than the reseller. At least, that's what my conversations with LEGO employees have indicated.

I hope they do a re-release, and it does decrease the value. And I don't even want the set.

I'm not so sure. The UCS MF has been the flagship set of the investment articles. With a bit of Taj Mahal, Cafe Corner, etc. But it is the Falcon that seems to be the star of the articles. Now what happens if that plummets in value? The general public then get the don't invest in lego slant, look what happened to the Falcon. This will cut current sales of people investing and this is likely to hit sales overall. I haven't a clue what proportion of sets (especially the larger, AFOL aimed ones) are investment rather than consumer. But if sales are down by even a small proportion it may be enough to convince lego there is no longer a viable AFOL market.

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Yes, but how many AFOLs do you know that spend that much? How many AFOLs are in your actual circle of friends? Not counting AFOLs I have met through our LUG, I know of NO other AFOLs. None from work, my friends, family members, parents from my kid's schools, parents form their sports teams, etc. Even if I purchase as many as 50 kids, I know several hundred kids with parents that don't buy LEGO at all. We are a tiny percentage of sales.

I've always wore my Lego fandom on my sleeve, so I've met quiet a few AFOLs over the years (and ironically I'm not in a LUG, so I really haven't met any there). I don't know that any spend what I do, but a few have impressive collections. I also only know one kid who really has a 'collection'. Many of my kids friends (and admittedly, I don't really talk to them about it), but they only have a few sets and that's it.

Anyway, I'm not saying it's a large percentage, I'm just saying I believe it's a larger percentage than the Lego Group thinks it is.

I also have to think that the percentage of the people who bought a $500 Millennium Falcon set have to be damn near 100% AFOLs.

But then again, half the reason I think the bubble will inevitably burst, is because I don't think there are enough AFOLs and wealthy parents to buy up all the sets that people are hording, when they decide to sell in future. All that supply will out weigh demand at some point. I think it will very closely follow the comics market. You'll still have sets that were way under produced or had overly short runs be worth money, but the popular sets that people are hording, those will be in much higher supply than demand.

I'm not so sure. The UCS MF has been the flagship set of the investment articles. With a bit of Taj Mahal, Cafe Corner, etc. But it is the Falcon that seems to be the star of the articles. Now what happens if that plummets in value? The general public then get the don't invest in lego slant, look what happened to the Falcon. This will cut current sales of people investing and this is likely to hit sales overall. I haven't a clue what proportion of sets (especially the larger, AFOL aimed ones) are investment rather than consumer. But if sales are down by even a small proportion it may be enough to convince lego there is no longer a viable AFOL market.

Well the good news is I don't see the USC MF as dropping. That's a set no one horded given it's hefty price tag. The $20 licensed sets on the other hand, I'm convinced are being stock piled in some collector's basements.

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Lego did an experiment will re-releases a while back, but it lasted less than a year. I remember Main Street and Metroliner got re-released. It would be very interesting to find out why that stopped. I remember at the time Lego was starting to become worth money and I did wonder what that was going to do to prices.

I have read on forums that those rereleases didn't sell that well, but no clue otherwise.

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