End of Lego

[AmperZand]

The biggest menace in LEGO's future is 3D printing

I agree. As I've said before, TLG will have to change its business model from a maker to a designer of toys. Of course, TLG already designs toys. But in future, I expect consumers will have the choice of buying the physical product as they do now or buying a licence to produce the set at home or through 3D printing services. It will be similar in some ways to buying books today: you can get the hard copy, an e-copy (e.g. Kindle) or a soft copy that you have printed.

[Jbricks]

My prediction: as kids lose interest in physical toys, sales will decline. Within 10 years, superheroes will get stale. In 20 or fewer, Star Wars will become unpopular due to overproduction of films. When these three events intersect, Lego will crash big time. Maybe the company will survive, but severely cut back production and just focus on the very little kids. As interest will Fade, not Disappear, the crash will come as a surprise to consumers.

[Lyichir]

My prediction: as kids lose interest in physical toys, sales will decline. Within 10 years, superheroes will get stale. In 20 or fewer, Star Wars will become unpopular due to overproduction of films. When these three events intersect, Lego will crash big time. Maybe the company will survive, but severely cut back production and just focus on the very little kids. As interest will Fade, not Disappear, the crash will come as a surprise to consumers.

I think all of those things are extremely unlikely to happen.

• Kids losing interest in physical toys: It's been predicted for years. Hasn't happened yet. Lego's fear of this happening was part of what led to their reckless innovation in the early '00s, but it turned out that that fear was overblown and Lego's re-emphasis of their core business of physical toys is what led to the company's resurgence.
  
• Superheroes getting stale: Are you kidding? Superhero media has been going strong for decades. The glut of it in recent movies is largely just a side-effect of improvements in special effects allowing live-action movies to do justice to the epic storylines and characters who have been going strong for the better part of the past century.
  
• Star Wars becoming unpopular due to overexposure: Again, I'll believe it when I see it. Besides, if that happens, chances are the brand will simply adapt, with fewer films and an emphasis on other media—like the brand had been doing for several years prior to The Force Awakens, with little ill effect on Lego's bottom line or the Star Wars brand's popularity.
  
• Finally, as an addendum to those last two points, it's not like those themes are irreplaceable for Lego. Even if superheroes and Star Wars went kaput against all odds, something else would rise up to take their place in the pop culture landscape, and there's nothing that'd stop Lego from jumping on to whatever new craze emerged. The company is more adaptable than people give them credit for.
  

[Capn Frank]

For my first two actuall topics this is going fine.

Merged with previous related topic. You need to learn to use the search engine.

[davee123]

as kids lose interest in physical toys, sales will decline.

Nah. I believe the toy industry's actually been getting larger! People were afraid of this in the 1980s and 1990s, and physical toys still did OK. Although for a while, anytime bad things happened, toy companies blamed it on electronics. As long as kids have physical bodies, they'll want physical toys. If (someday) we're so amazingly advanced that kids can simulate physical play virtually and not be negatively affected developmentally, THEN yes. But that's off the cutting edge of science and basically onto science fiction (which may someday be reality, but as yet is totally unclear).

Within 10 years, superheroes will get stale. In 20 or fewer, Star Wars will become unpopular due to overproduction of films. When these three events intersect, Lego will crash big time.

Well, here's the thing: LEGO targets kids, and for them, this is all new! LEGO's primary market is in the 6-12 year old zone-- and if YOU didn't get bored with superheroes or Star Wars as a kid, then tomorrow's kids won't either. Sure, the particulars of each brand may change-- and yes, Star Wars could (in theory) get old and outdated someday (largely thanks to its adult market, if so), but it'd be foolish to assume that LEGO wouldn't stay current and get new licenses that are similarly popular.

Maybe the company will survive, but severely cut back production and just focus on the very little kids. As interest will Fade, not Disappear, the crash will come as a surprise to consumers.

This seems a little closer to the mark-- LEGO might cut back and endure some decline. And adult hobbyists might become less prevalent. But I'd hardly call it a "crash". What COULD crash might be the secondary LEGO market with resellers. That might happen. And it would affect some of LEGO's sales. But given LEGO's attempts to curb resellers, I can't imagine that the resellers are making up a significant portion of LEGO's total sales that would dry up instantly. It would be a decline for LEGO, and more of a rapid shock to the resellers as they race to get rid of several year old stock before the secondary market bottoms out.

DaveE

Edited August 25, 2016 by davee123

[x105Black]

I expect LEGO to outlast me.

I expect LEGO to outlast everyone here.

I see no reason for LEGO to fail, despite regular failures.

[Peppermint_M]

I see no reason for LEGO to fail, despite regular failures.

That hurts my head LEGO as a company will not fail despite regular (In your opinion) design failings. Right?

So, I have read a lot of the thread (and the repetitions. Woo Dejavu) and the amusing thing is mostly the repeating of the same old arguments I can safely say were spoken for decades. Large prefab parts? They have been around since the 80s Possibly longer. Colours? Greys and Greens were banned originally so kids couldn't play war and they arrived in time. Cash Grab? Star Wars was the cash grab, Bionicle was a cash grab. TLG is a company, not a saint. They run on money and everything is an attempt to grab part of the market and money!

Planned obsolescence is nonsense in LEGO though,not many other companies wants their 40 year old product to still work with their current.

Yeah, I still use my fifteen year old walkman, but it plays CDs. I am on my fourth MP4 player. My laptop lags behind after about three years and I pick up a new one, my DSi is pointless for many games I want to play. My year old phone is bugging me as I have a year to wait on a new one and the latest bells and whistles. The PS2 is gathering dust and the Xbox360 is following fast. But I still use bricks bought for me in 1993. I have hand-me-downs from the 80s and I use them in my builds.

LEGO will last as long as society lasts!

[rodiziorobs]

Planned obsolescence is nonsense in LEGO though,not many other companies wants their 40 year old product to still work with their current.

I think this is actually the key to LEGO's longevity, as they are not easily replaced. If some new construction toy brand could revolutionize the market, providing the same/equivalent experience in a different way (similar to tech advances such as electric or driverless cars, digital music, or streaming entertainment), then LEGO might lose out.

Personally, I don't see a way that will happen; the building block experience is too elemental to really change much or go away. Even TLG's own attempts to move beyond or away from the basic brick-clicking experience have been met with outright failure (famously Galidor), diminishing returns (the Games line) or general indifference (Fusion, recently). Plus, the fact that TLG spends a lot on research expanding their play offerings means that if there is some groundbreaking innovation, they would likely stumble onto it first.

Add to that the fact that LEGO is one of the most trusted companies in the world and is building up a strong portfolio of not only educational play experiences, but media and entertainment as well, I really don't see them going anywhere.

If I remember correctly Lego has been making an effort to reduce the amount of ABS in each brick and replace it with more environmentally friendly materials.

Correct, here is the article in a trade publication (an intriguing read, IMO) but there are similar articles/commentary run in Wired and other magazines as well.

Interestingly, they bring up exactly the point I quoted Pep on and that is how difficult it is to innovate new materials that are 100% faithful to 40+ years of product. Anyone who has any of the old CA bricks has probably witnessed that.

Edited August 25, 2016 by rodiziorobs

[x105Black]

That hurts my head LEGO as a company will not fail despite regular (In your opinion) design failings. Right?

Right! LEGO makes mistakes often. We may not all agree on what the mistakes are, but they make them because they take calculated risks. So, even if they fail with, for example, Chima, that will not impact them in the long term. The company will continue to be successful.

[IvanTheBuilder]

I don't know, if it's ever been discussed, but what do you think: will Lego ever end? If your answer is yes, please, write down why, when, etc.

it was two days ago lol

[Kamil Z]

Unfortunately probably so, considering Lego is heavily investing in biodegradable plastic. Once people realize that Lego wont be a long term investment and could no longer be passed down generations and instead degrade, sales will probably drop. Anyways, that's my opinion.

Edited August 25, 2016 by Kamil Z

[rodiziorobs]

Unfortunately probably so, considering Lego is heavily investing in biodegradable plastic. Once people realize that Lego wont be a long term investment and could no longer be passed down generations and instead degrade, sales will probably drop. Anyways, that's my opinion.

It's not biodegradeability they are after, but sustainable sourcing; they are looking for an alternative to ABS to reduce their reliance on petroleum and derivatives.

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

it was two days ago lol

Hmmm... Ivan, you do realize that Jockos' thread is the original one from 2015, and yours was the newer duplicate?

Edited August 26, 2016 by BrickHat

[IvanTheBuilder]

Merged with previous related topic. You need to learn to use the search engine.

Phred dude ecactly what do mean im Croatian English is a second language to me.

Hmmm... Ivan, you do realize that Jockos' thread is the original one from 2015, and yours was the newer duplicate?

Dude it is my second day chill

[1980-Something-Space-Guy]

Dude it is my second day chill

Trying to be helpful here. Not really appreciating your response, though.

[Peppermint_M]

Phred dude ecactly what do mean im Croatian English is a second language to me.

Dude it is my second day chill

I think what Phred meant was that a little use of the Forum Search would have turned up the older thread which you could have added to. As it is, he had put your thread and the old one together. We understand that some members have English as a second language, that is why we pass a few friendly reminders on.

I think BrickHat did not mean offence there and I'm hoping you didn't either. Online communication loses something in tone and intent.

Trying to be helpful here. Not really appreciating your response, though.

We didn't need that either though, did we?

Can we keep it friendly and keep in mind that not everyone speaks English as a first language?

Thanks Guys and Gals

[IvanTheBuilder]

Well that clears alot