Pelly's Paradise Day Two: Two Wild and Crazy Guys

[Walter Kovacs]

I've done a lot of thinking overnight, and I've come to a few conclusions.

There is a plausible explanation for Draggy's death that doesn't necessitate Shadows being scum. So first I must do this.

Unvote: Starlord (Shadows)

If Draggy was the target of the SK, and not the Scum, then a Townie Shadows is much more plausible.

Now, Tammo's entire argument is that Brick's Cop action is Random/Paranoid/Insane. How do we know that Draggy's Cop action wasn't the tainted one? We don't, and we can't without more results. For now, I consider a Scum result from an investigation to be just that: we found a scum. Until proven otherwise, I will continue to believe the results from Blackbeard's Shag.

Vote: The Joker (Tamamono)

[jluck]

Ok let's run some numbers. I'm going to start by assuming we do have 3 cops, including the flavor cop. My logical conclusion from this is that the of the other two cops one is legitimate and the other is insane/paranoid. That means that the tamamono investigation has a 50/50 chance of being the true cop. However, I was rather convinced by tamamono's work on day 1 and his defense, so I've actually swung the numbers in his favor, say 65/35 that tamamono is innocent. Now the other side of the equation. This game started with 20 players, so I've assumed 5 scum. We've lost 3 townies so now we have a 5/17 scum percentage. Based on my (rough) calculations, we have a 29% chance of finding scum via random vote, while I've given tamamono a 35% chance of being scum. Unless a better option is presented, the numbers are inclining me to vote tamamono.

[Mencot]

Okay, I got some sleep and here is what I think about the current situation:

I have been trying to play Speedy. The problem is that I'm not def... I did overlook a few options when railing on about how we should Lynch Tammo. Perhaps we can lynch the scummiest person today, and then see if the investigator hat is insane or not tomorrow. The only problem with this is that Tammo has the redirect role, so he can easily change the results of the cop to scum if he wants. There is also the scenario where Dave dies tonight. If that happens, I still think we should lynch Tammo, just to be sure... I still think that Tammo is the best lynch for today, but if everyone thinks I'm wrong, I will drop it for now.

I'm also going to stop trying to be Speedy. I was hoping that I could be the town leader and stuff, but I don't think I'm good enough at it.

Yes one hint: Don´t try to play Speedy!

[Bob]

I'm unsure, but as I said, if Tammo were a true townie, he'd allow himself to be lynched to test the validity of the investigator costume.

Vote: The Joker (Tamamono)

[Zepher]

Vote: The Joker (Tamamono)

I agree - losing such a costume hurts the scum more than town, and it's worth it regardless to find out if our cop works.

[fhomess]

So we're voting for the person you're going to coordinate with, or you're just picking one or we're all blindly trusting you two? I'm sorry, but isn't this exactly the way that we were afraid the vig costume would be abused? I was willing to give you the benefit of the doubt when you scooped it up, because time was running out, but this just seems silly. Even if you fail we'll know to scrutinize certain costumes - here that's not the case at all. It's literally exactly what we were afraid of the scum doing, and now you're doing it...

Thou doth misunderstand. Mine intent is to provide another chance where in we might select a trustable cosplayer with whom I can coordinate. Yea, an opportunity to essentially reselect who should have had the chance to use the vig hat in light of the fact that selection was not made early in the day. All may take their part in the nomination of this player. I wish not to choose them myself. Howe'er, I believe tis better to keep the final target private until the morn. Woulds't thou rather have scum know exactly whether or not they are in danger?

[Darkdragon]

We have to trust the cop result unless its proved that it could be fals . Its easy for a scum to claim the result is wrong because of any number of reasons and if theyvfound out early about multiple cop roles, its the perfect cover.

Tammo was very quick to snatch the pack and its arguably one of the most town-damaging items we know about.

Voting the person that holds the vig costume is a move against town, taking away our only night kill possibility.

Vote: The Joker (Tamamono)

[Lind Whisperer]

Last night(in real-world time), I got the distinct feeling that Tammo's arguments were basically him trying to come up with flimsy explanations for how he could be town and still come up scum. I decided to wait until morning before voting, but I still feel the same way.

I'm not entirely sure whether or not to trust Shadows or Brick, but Tammo...I'm just not getting a town vibe from him.

Vote: The Joker (Tamamono)

[Tamamono]

Okay, I got some sleep and here is what I think about the current situation:

I have been trying to play Speedy. The problem is that I'm not def... I did overlook a few options when railing on about how we should Lynch Tammo. Perhaps we can lynch the scummiest person today, and then see if the investigator hat is insane or not tomorrow. The only problem with this is that Tammo has the redirect role, so he can easily change the results of the cop to scum if he wants. There is also the scenario where Dave dies tonight. If that happens, I still think we should lynch Tammo, just to be sure... I still think that Tammo is the best lynch for today, but if everyone thinks I'm wrong, I will drop it for now.

I'm also going to stop trying to be Speedy. I was hoping that I could be the town leader and stuff, but I don't think I'm good enough at it.

I'm glad you came to your senses. I'm fine with being lynched today, but there are better options - that's all. I'd urge the rest of the town to consider lynching shadows or Zepher, but I realize that that just isn't realistic. An investigation result is not reason enough for a lynch.

But then again, I do have the redirect, which is arguably not a town role. While I disagree with lynching me just to get rid of a role, if nobody can agree on a better option, I'm the best lynch.

I'd admonish everyone from assuming that the cop is insane when I flip town - it may still be paranoid.

And Brickelodeon, for gods sake, take the vig. Fhomess is not someone whose hands I want it in right now - he's scum.

Last night(in real-world time), I got the distinct feeling that Tammo's arguments were basically him trying to come up with flimsy explanations for how he could be town and still come up scum. I decided to wait until morning before voting, but I still feel the same way.

I'm not entirely sure whether or not to trust Shadows or Brick, but Tammo...I'm just not getting a town vibe from him.

Vote: The Joker (Tamamono)

Is it because I didn't play in heroica with you? this guys scum too.

[Brickelodeon]

I'm sorry, but I've already told def the costume I want to steal. I would if I could, but it's too late.

[Tamamono]

Then I should be left alive to redirect him.

This really is sad - most everyone agrees I'm more likely town than not, yet I'm being lynched. Like, I see everyone's logic, but I just don't think this is the way to approach a game like this. :sceptic.

[Walter Kovacs]

I've been doing a little research into what happened during Bloodbrick 2, and a new possibility that we haven't discussed has come to mind. In Bloodbrick 2, there was a Bus Driver pill. Tammo was almost certain to be Investigated last night. It's conceivable that Tammo was bussed with a scum, giving the investigator the "false" scum result.

It's simple, elegant, and explains just about everything. Thoughts?

Also, in looking through Bloodbrick 2's conclusion, I see no Insane Cop on def's spreadsheet. I saw a Town/ Not Town Cop, a Scum/ Not Scum Cop, a Gunsmith and a Flavor Cop. Are we certain one of the Cop actions is Insane/Paranoid/Random? I'm certainly not. Not anymore.

For the record, I agree with Tammo. Lind Whisperer smells of scum to me. If we like this new theory, I would switch my vote to him.

[Lind Whisperer]

I've been doing a little research into what happened during Bloodbrick 2, and a new possibility that we haven't discussed has come to mind. In Bloodbrick 2, there was a Bus Driver pill. Tammo was almost certain to be Investigated last night. It's conceivable that Tammo was bussed with a scum, giving the investigator the "false" scum result.

It's simple, elegant, and explains just about everything. Thoughts?

It just feels overly complicated...

Yeah, that's not the most brilliant response, but it's how this whole conversation's made me feel.

[jluck]

I've been doing a little research into what happened during Bloodbrick 2, and a new possibility that we haven't discussed has come to mind. In Bloodbrick 2, there was a Bus Driver pill. Tammo was almost certain to be Investigated last night. It's conceivable that Tammo was bussed with a scum, giving the investigator the "false" scum result.

It's simple, elegant, and explains just about everything. Thoughts?

Also, in looking through Bloodbrick 2's conclusion, I see no Insane Cop on def's spreadsheet. I saw a Town/ Not Town Cop, a Scum/ Not Scum Cop, a Gunsmith and a Flavor Cop. Are we certain one of the Cop actions is Insane/Paranoid/Random? I'm certainly not. Not anymore.

For the record, I agree with Tammo. Lind Whisperer smells of scum to me. If we like this new theory, I would switch my vote to him.

Hmmm...

How much time do we have left? Seems we should still be able to turn this around if that's a role we have. Townies, if you got the bus driver role, could you possibly confirm it to someone you trust? I feel tamamono's life may henge on it.

[Lind Whisperer]

For the record, I agree with Tammo. Lind Whisperer smells of scum to me. If we like this new theory, I would switch my vote to him.

This feels like you're trying to give yourself the chance to jump on a potential bandwagon without committing yourself in case it doesn't pick up steam...

[Walter Kovacs]

This feels like you're trying to give yourself the chance to jump on a potential bandwagon without committing yourself in case it doesn't pick up steam...

You want me to commit myself? Fine, I'm man enough to do it.

Unvote: The Joker (Tamamono)

Vote: Gandolf (Lind Whisperer)

I was going to wait to see if anyone else found this theory plausible enough to talk it out. I think it sounds very plausible.

Lind, you said nothing substantive on Day 1, and your posts today have been equally vacuous. I'm much happier with my vote now. Thank you.

Hmmm...

How much time do we have left? Seems we should still be able to turn this around if that's a role we have. Townies, if you got the bus driver role, could you possibly confirm it to someone you trust? I feel tamamono's life may henge on it.

It's quite possible that if the scum had it on Day 1, they'd make damn sure to keep it on Day 2. Especially knowing that a firestorm would surround Tammo because of it.

One last note coming out of Bloodbrick 2. By the beginning of Day 4, The Scum knew what all but one of the pills that were still in play did. If the Scum team here has been experimenting like they did in BB2, they probably know most of the roles already. Food for Thought.

[mostlytechnic]

Hmmm...

How much time do we have left? Seems we should still be able to turn this around if that's a role we have. Townies, if you got the bus driver role, could you possibly confirm it to someone you trust? I feel tamamono's life may henge on it.

I'll concur with this, but with the problem that if no one comes forward, we're still stuck (since if tammo is telling the truth, the bus driver / framer would be scum themselves) And so we're hoping that if there IS a framer-type costume, that the scum didn't take it both days. I'll definitely agree that if the scum had a framer night 1, they'd have put it on tammo. No doubt in my mind - he was by FAR the logical choice. Since he was certain to be investigated, he would certainly have been the frame target as well. And especially since Brick announced the investigation result first thing today, the scum would have wanted to grab the framer again for exactly this reason. If someone says "hey, I've got the framer today" and tammo flips town, then we've still caught a scum since we'd lynch whoever had that costume day 1. Heck, they'd probably want to grab it again tomorrow as well, unless tamo is scum and there's no more need.

I'm just seeing too many possibilities (in a game this complex) for tamo to be town. And I still can't get past the logic that his revealing the vig was a purely townie move. So I guess I'll have to do some re-reading and pick someone else to vote for. Not that it's likely to make a difference, but I don't think testing the cop is enough reason to lynch someone who's about 90% sure to be town in my eyes.

[Tamamono]

I've been doing a little research into what happened during Bloodbrick 2, and a new possibility that we haven't discussed has come to mind. In Bloodbrick 2, there was a Bus Driver pill. Tammo was almost certain to be Investigated last night. It's conceivable that Tammo was bussed with a scum, giving the investigator the "false" scum result.

It's simple, elegant, and explains just about everything. Thoughts?

Also, in looking through Bloodbrick 2's conclusion, I see no Insane Cop on def's spreadsheet. I saw a Town/ Not Town Cop, a Scum/ Not Scum Cop, a Gunsmith and a Flavor Cop. Are we certain one of the Cop actions is Insane/Paranoid/Random? I'm certainly not. Not anymore.

For the record, I agree with Tammo. Lind Whisperer smells of scum to me. If we like this new theory, I would switch my vote to him.

This is an excellent point. While there is still the chance of a skewed cop, a bus driver is actually even more likely. And I was for sure going to be investigated (obviously), so the scum knew exactly who to bus drive. I made a big mistake giving them a target...

Def did include an insane cop in Bloodbrick I, so I guess that's what I'm remembering. Would he do it again?

Hmmm...

How much time do we have left? Seems we should still be able to turn this around if that's a role we have. Townies, if you got the bus driver role, could you possibly confirm it to someone you trust? I feel tamamono's life may henge on it.

If I was scum and had gotten a role like this, now way would I have let it fall into town hands... I worry that they've kept it.

I can't believe I didn't see this before, but I would not be at all surprised if it's true. Can the town unite behind this? Again, I understand the motivations for lynching me, but there are much better targets.

Unvote: Starlord (Shadows)

I don't see a Shadows lynch going through today, although I still think he's scum.

jluck and others, does a Lind Whisperer lynch work for you??

[jluck]

Tamamono, I would certainly be willing to entertain the Lind argument. I'm at work so I can't go through his posts right now, but his recent work hasn't helped him build up my confidence in him.

[Brickelodeon]

I'm willing to switch to Lind or Shadows. I've been talking with Tammo, and I'm having some serious doubts about my accusations. We will know soon enough if the cop was insane or not, so if nothing else, we can lynch him tomorrow. He's not off the hook, but once again, there are bigger fish to be caught. I don't want to lynch him if he is town, so why should we waste our lynch if we can confirm whether or not he is town tomorrow? We really need the watcher to be on Dave tonight to make sure that his results are not tampered with.

[Bob]

I've been doing a little research into what happened during Bloodbrick 2, and a new possibility that we haven't discussed has come to mind. In Bloodbrick 2, there was a Bus Driver pill. Tammo was almost certain to be Investigated last night. It's conceivable that Tammo was bussed with a scum, giving the investigator the "false" scum result.

It's simple, elegant, and explains just about everything. Thoughts?

Also, in looking through Bloodbrick 2's conclusion, I see no Insane Cop on def's spreadsheet. I saw a Town/ Not Town Cop, a Scum/ Not Scum Cop, a Gunsmith and a Flavor Cop. Are we certain one of the Cop actions is Insane/Paranoid/Random? I'm certainly not. Not anymore.

For the record, I agree with Tammo. Lind Whisperer smells of scum to me. If we like this new theory, I would switch my vote to him.

This game is "based on the mechanics" of Bloodbrick 2. It's not an exact carbon copy of the game. That wouldn't be fun at all if we were just playing the exact same game with different characters. It's conceivable that there's a bus driver, but why haven't they spoken up? Unless it was a scum, which would be extremely lucky for them to have received that role on night one. Don't ignore possibilities simply because they weren't in the last game like this. That's scummy itself.

As for Lind Whisperer, I was fine with lynching him yesterday, and I'm thinking of voting for him again today. Tammo still seems like town to me, so he's either doing a master level play or he's actually town.

Unvote: The Joker (Tamamono)

Vote: Gandolf (Lind Whisperer)

My reasons for this vote are the exact same reasons I provided yesterday.

[jluck]

Ok, let's get the momentum going on a different direction. Brickalodeon started the lynch of tamamono and he's not convinced so I'm certainly not either. I agree that we should carefully watch the night results and figure out what kind of cop we have left. Could the flavor cop tell us if the cop is insane/paranoid? Also, I know someone said its not legal but piratedave could you at least confirm with def that you can't investigate yourself to see if the cop is giving legit results?

In the mean time I will

vote: gandolph (Lind Wisperer)

Because if feel we have more to gain with getting rid of him then tamamono.

Dragonfire, you had the Mr Freeze Coolant on day 1, would it be terrible for the town to lose it?

[Dragonfire]

I'm on my phone here and won't be able to post until 9pm tonight Canada time. Lind has the bulletproof costume so dont lynch him.

[fhomess]

I've been doing a little research into what happened during Bloodbrick 2, and a new possibility that we haven't discussed has come to mind. In Bloodbrick 2, there was a Bus Driver pill. Tammo was almost certain to be Investigated last night. It's conceivable that Tammo was bussed with a scum, giving the investigator the "false" scum result.

It's simple, elegant, and explains just about everything. Thoughts?

Didst Bloodbrick 2 have a bus driver and a redirector? Wouldst it not seem a bit much to have both?

[Mencot]

I'm on my phone here and won't be able to post until 9pm tonight Canada time. Lind has the bulletproof costume so dont lynch him.

Bulletproof, didn´t Stickfig also claim that superman hair was that and Stickfig was town, so I suppous he was telling the truth!?

2 Bulletproof, would that be too much?

Didst Bloodbrick 2 have a bus driver and a redirector? Wouldst it not seem a bit much to have both?

Also would like to know this.