LEGO as an investment: LOTR and Hobbit themes

[Trunkbass]

Hi,

I was wondering if anybody has any experience with investing in LEGO sets. With this I mean buying full sets now, leave them sealed and sell them in a couple of years for a higher price. I would like to invest only in LOTR and Hobbit sets, as I am only collecting those at the moment and if my investment won't work out, I'll still have sets that I like.

First of all, is there anybody here who does that? Is it profitable?

Secondly, are the LOTR and Hobbit themes interesting for doing this? Which sets would you recommend? I was thinking of 'An Unexpected Gathering' and 'The Tower of Orthanc' because I think they're both quite iconic and I believe relatively popular.

Lastly, I think right now is a fairly good time to start (albeit a little too late for LOTR wave one sets like Helms Deep) because it seems like after the third Hobbit wave (and maybe the third LOTR one in 2015) the Middle-Earth theme will come to an end.

What do you think?

[jodawill]

I've been hanging onto a sealed Helm's Deep for two years now and the value still hasn't gone up past retail price, so…

[MAB]

In terms of minifigs, army builders are the ones to go for, as people always want multiples. There are not so many in LOTR / Hobbit, as these tend to focus on the main characters, and normally most people don't want huge armies of the same specific character.

The one that does do well is the Uruk-Hai army, 9471, with the Rohan Soldier doing well in particular. Even then though, the price compared to retail / RRP is not great. But the time to buy is when they are 50% off.

[Alcarin]

Bricklink.com is a better place for such discussions.....

But yes I invest in LOTR..... have about 18 sealed sets from LOTR...... I got them cheap, so its going ok.... but you will not see any returns on them before 2016 or maybe even 17..... besides you missed the train on everything except the Orthanc...

[jodawill]

In terms of minifigs, army builders are the ones to go for, as people always want multiples. There are not so many in LOTR / Hobbit, as these tend to focus on the main characters, and normally most people don't want huge armies of the same specific character.

The one that does do well is the Uruk-Hai army, 9471, with the Rohan Soldier doing well in particular. Even then though, the price compared to retail / RRP is not great. But the time to buy is when they are 50% off.

I waited a really long time for 9471 to go on clearance and it never happened. The best deal I ever found was about $5 off, so I just bought one for myself. I waited over a year to buy it.

[Trunkbass]

I've been hanging onto a sealed Helm's Deep for two years now and the value still hasn't gone up past retail price, so…

That's why I think we should buy now (or should have bought LOTR wave 1 sets in 2012) and sell when the LOTR line has ended for at least a year or two. If you don't mind the wait.

But the time to buy is when they are 50% off.

Usually I only look for deals on Amazon, but that's nearly never 50%. In Belgium, where I live, we don't have Wallmart, Toys'R Us or shops like that with polybags and big clearances. Most shops that I go through are even more expensive than the official LEGO prices.

By the way, the official LEGO store has clearances with 50% off from time to time. It's just that you have to see it on time. All the cheap Hobbit sets that were half the price on there were already discontinued when I got to see the discount

but you will not see any returns on them before 2016 or maybe even 17..... besides you missed the train on everything except the Orthanc...

Yes, I don't mind the wait actually, in the end it just has to be worth it. I don't expect to get ten times retail price like the Star Wars Exclusive Millennium Falcon nowadays, but at least double would be nice. I know I missed the boat on a lot of sets, but 'An Unexpected Gathering' is still not discontinued and can be bought for a nice price!

I waited a really long time for 9471 to go on clearance and it never happened. The best deal I ever found was about $5 off, so I just bought one for myself. I waited over a year to buy it.

Yeah, I know. I will always regret only buying two of them because they weren't 'good deals' at the time..

[MAB]

In the UK, the whole of Wave 2 of the Hobbit has been 50% off. I think every Wave 1 Hobbit was also 50% off.

For LOTR, 9471 (Uruk army) was £12 for a while (RRP £30). Elrond's Council I got a couple at £6 each. Most others in Wave 2 were 50% at least. Wave 1 was harder. I bought most at 33% off (3 for 2 deals), but occasionally they have been better. For example, mines of Moria was meant to be £70 RRP, but TRU had it at £44.99 and then did a 3 for 2, meaning £30 a set when you buy three.

You just have to keep your eyes open, and know when to jump.

I'm not really a reseller. I mainly buy for myself, or buy two/three and sell one/two to cover the costs of my one. Finding large numbers to be a proper reseller at those sort of prices is harder, but was perfectly doable for Hobbit Wave 2.

Edited July 24, 2014 by MAB

[jodawill]

According to Brickpicker, Helm's Deep is up to $162 now. That's not terrible considering I only paid $57 for that set, but I paid $90 for two more of them that I opened for myself, haha. But I was really hoping it would be over $200 at this time, especially considering the last movie is coming out soon.

I have a ton of smaller LotR and Hobbit sets too and two unopened Constitution Trains. I should have bought the cavalry army builder sets from The Lone Ranger instead. The train still hasn't gone up a dime. I bought four of them because I thought the value would double pretty quickly since it's a train, and I opened two of them.

[unclejeffie]

Being from Belgium myself, I can relate myself to the thread starter.

As Toys'r us don't have any shops in Belgium, you can order online from France, Netherlands and Germany. Just have to watch the promotions overthere.

4 weeks ago the Palace Cinema was -50% in Toys'r us France, and the shipping to Belgium was only 10 euro i think.

[Blakstone]

I only have one NIB Helm's Deep waiting. I got it for $90 on clearance. Like the OP, I figured it was a safe bet since if I cannot sell it, I will enjoy it. I don't know if it will ever climb to the heights of Green Grocer though.

I think I would be satisfied to trade it for a modular such as Pet Shop or Town Hall though.

[Darth Caedus]

The Black Pearl is a set I bought a couple extra copies of 70 apiece and held on to for a year or so. Sold em for 225 apiece so it was a nice investment. LOTR and Hobbit lego, probably will be a bit of a longer wait. Definitely target the desirable sets. 10 years from now nobody is gonna want a Goblin King Battle that bad, but you bet they'll want a Bag End on their desk. I'd say invest in:

Bag End

Helm's Deep

Uruk-hai Army

Orthanc

[TheLegoDr]

Orc Forge seems to do well in the aftermarket too. But that was a store exclusive, so I think not as many people picked it up. Plus I don't recall it being available for as long as some of the other sets.

Buy low, sell high. Doesn't always work out that way if sales aren't found. But buying at MSRP and selling above MSRP still works. It just won't be as high of a return.

I don't claim to be a reseller. I do have a few unopened sets that I'd be willing to part with, but if not I could open and enjoy. They are the type of set that if the value is really high, it will cause me to sell it instead of keep it.

[Deathleech]

I've been hanging onto a sealed Helm's Deep for two years now and the value still hasn't gone up past retail price, so…

What? I just checked eBay and all the new, sealed Helm's Deep listings that have sold are going for around $160-170. That's $30-40 over retail. If you bought them on sale for $70-90 that's nearly double in a year. It may not be the best Lego return investment, but that's hardly bad either.

I'd say invest in:

Bag End

Helm's Deep

Uruk-hai Army

Orthanc

These would be my suggestions as well. They seem to be the crowd favorites or have multi-purchase appeal. It's really hard to say though. Sometimes sets will suprise you. Sets no one expects to be popular later on or that currently aren't popular usually end up being the best investments because they didn't sell a ton or most people didn't buy them to sell later so having them MIB is rare.

[Trunkbass]

As Toys'r us don't have any shops in Belgium, you can order online from France, Netherlands and Germany. Just have to watch the promotions overthere.

On the websites of TRU shops in Germany, the Netherlands and France the range of Hobbit and LOTR sets is horrible. I hope this is just temporarily.

I'd say invest in:

Bag End

Helm's Deep

Uruk-hai Army

Orthanc

Thanks, this is really helpful.

I thought about Helm's Deep and Uruk-hai Army too, but they are really hard to find for a good price nowadays, which is logical. I'll just try to stack up Bag Ends and Orthancs then.

Thanks everybody for the input!

[Slobey]

I think too many people have jumped on the Lego investment bandwagon. Sets that aren't exclusives are going to take a looong time to make a decent profit on now days. I dabbled in the reselling market a few years ago but the returns now are not worth the effort. You're better off parking your money in blue chip shares that pay a dividend each year.....

[Alcarin]

I think too many people have jumped on the Lego investment bandwagon. Sets that aren't exclusives are going to take a looong time to make a decent profit on now days. I dabbled in the reselling market a few years ago but the returns now are not worth the effort. You're better off parking your money in blue chip shares that pay a dividend each year.....

Exactly

I am slowly moving out also, mainly due to the fact that everyone is trying to make ''easy'' money... well there is no easy money.... I will keep the sets I have (about 20) might've add a few third wave Hobbit sets (if they fail ill use them for parts) and thats about it.... unless there comes 3rd LOTR wave I am 95% done with LEGO investing.

[TheLegoDr]

As stated, that's the problem (or solution). Everyone and their dog is getting into reselling because of a few sets selling really well in the aftermarket. Not every set will garner $1000 above MSRP after it is retired. That is quite rare. Getting double is a good mindset, and a probable one.

But with that said, I don't have the budget to buy extras to sell later on. I buy what I need now and enjoy it. It's great there is an aftermarket (even if the prices can be ridiculous) for the sets people missed out on.

Since LEGO keeps getting more popular every year, I don't see reselling slowing down. But I also don't see the ROI changing either. It isn't a get rich quick scheme.