Bold predictions on the future of Cuusoo...

[The Real Indiana Jones]

BOLD PREDICTIONS ON THE FUTURE OF CUUSOO... WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THEY FINALLY "GO LIVE"?!

As you may know...

Cuusoo began the first phase of testing (the Alpha Phase) in late 2008, and that lasted for about three years. It was limited to Japan, with a small number of people, and the number of votes needed to pass was much smaller. All the projects that are older than late 2011 are legacies from the Alpha Phase.

The current phase (the Beta Phase) began in late 2011 or so, and will probably go 3 years or so until 2015. Naturally, the goal of the Beta Phase is to test it with the most solid fan-base, get feedback, work out all of the kinks, and to finalize the rules, before they go live and start advertising the site.

Wow, so what will happen when Cuusoo finally "goes live"?!

1) First, if GlenBricker's stats are right, then by that time, 15 more projects will have passed 10,000, and then the top projects will be ones that have just about 2500 votes as of right now.

2) Next, once it goes live, they will likely start to advertise it on their main site, bringing many many more visitors, viewers, and voters... At that point, it seems likely that the strategy for winning will start to shift away from relentlessly spamming social networking sites, and more towards attracting votes from casual fans and casual visitors.

3) Most importantly, if there are so many more people visiting and voting, and if all of the good-quality well-designed projects that are posted now will have 1000 or more votes to grow on, doesn't it seem likely to think that ***ALL*** of the good-quality well-designed projects that are posted there now should hit 10,000 surprisingly quickly after that, with all of the new visitors and voters around?

So far, there have been about 3 million visitors on Cuusoo... When they go live, that number should jump up to the tens of millions surprisingly quickly... SImply put, if there are 5x as many people on the site after it goes live, then a "five-year slog" suddenly becomes a "one-year victory lap"...! If there are 10x as many people on the site, or more, then things will start to blast forward at warp speed!

In fact, I am starting to think that when that day comes, then hundreds of the best-quality projects will rocket to the 10,000 mark within the space of a few months, and LEGO will love it, because it will make a lot of fans happy after years of struggle, and it will give them tons more options when it comes to deciding which set they want to make. Most likely they will also adjust by making more sets per quarter.

And so what do you think? What will happen when they finally "go live"?!

Edited July 8, 2013 by The Real Indiana Jones

[dvsntt]

Your predictions sound reasonable to me. I also feel that would benefit my project greatly since it is largely more popular with the general public and children (it is on display at a museum right now, and I love the letters I get from kids) than the sets that cross interests, like the Zelda, Portal, BTTF and Ghostbuster themes which attracted people not usually into Lego to sign up to support the model(s).

[Spider-Man]

Interesting read. The first thing I think will happen is that the needed amount of votes will increase just like it did from Alpha to Beta. Seeing how long it takes them to work through project approvals now I think there will have to be some sort of drastic change. Either there will be a larger CuuSoo dedicated staff so they can get through projects quicker, or they will have to slow the pace of projects reaching the "achieved" state with the estimated amount of new traffic to the site.

Another prediction I would like to add is that there will be some sort of larger screening process in order for projects to get published to the public. When the site goes live there will surely be a lot more people adding projects, and with that there will definitely be a lot more that don't follow the CuuSoo rules. As of now, projects that don't follow the rules (i.e. new parts and such) seem to just sit on the site and take up space. In the future I would like to see those projects weeded out before they even have the option to accumulate votes.

[Aanchir]

Interesting read. The first thing I think will happen is that the needed amount of votes will increase just like it did from Alpha to Beta. Seeing how long it takes them to work through project approvals now I think there will have to be some sort of drastic change. Either there will be a larger CuuSoo dedicated staff so they can get through projects quicker, or they will have to slow the pace of projects reaching the "achieved" state with the estimated amount of new traffic to the site.

Another prediction I would like to add is that there will be some sort of larger screening process in order for projects to get published to the public. When the site goes live there will surely be a lot more people adding projects, and with that there will definitely be a lot more that don't follow the CuuSoo rules. As of now, projects that don't follow the rules (i.e. new parts and such) seem to just sit on the site and take up space. In the future I would like to see those projects weeded out before they even have the option to accumulate votes.

Including new or custom parts isn't against any rules. It just means they will have to be replaced with existing parts or parts designed for other upcoming themes in the final model. Additionally, there is no rule against new parts projects, and in fact there are rules dictating how they would work. They would be incorporated into ordinary sets rather than released as sets of their own, bypassing the issue of Cuusoo sets' limited production numbers, and the proposer gets a one-time flat fee rather than a percentage of the sales.

[The Real Indiana Jones]

Interesting read. The first thing I think will happen is that the needed amount of votes will increase just like it did from Alpha to Beta. Seeing how long it takes them to work through project approvals now I think there will have to be some sort of drastic change. Either there will be a larger CuuSoo dedicated staff so they can get through projects quicker, or they will have to slow the pace of projects reaching the "achieved" state with the estimated amount of new traffic to the site.

Hmm, honestly, I think that they intend to keep the 10,000 goal line the same after they go live. That way the site will be a lot more exciting, if good projects succeed within *one* year or so, and not *five* years! Seriously, *half a decade* is waaay too long, even for a patient adult! And if a kid is 8-years-old, he'll be much more excited to think that a project might get made when he is 9 or 10, and not after he is already in high school! I think Lego realizes that, and they've always planned to keep the 10,000 mark.

And for the approvals process, I think that they will just switch to a simple letter that says "Congratulations, your set reached 10,000! We might make it! Stay tuned!", knowing that they have no obligation to make any particular set just because it hits 10k. They will have plenty of good quality winners to choose from, and everyone will be happy.

That would be the generally happy solution. If they "move the goalposts" to a higher number, they will justifiably enrage a lot of core fans who worked hard for years!!

[caperberry]

...They would be incorporated into ordinary sets rather than released as sets of their own...

When/where was this announced Aanchir? I missed that.

[BlueberryWaffles]

I hope more than 1 set is made each Review.

[dvsntt]

I just wish that Lego would recognize my models are designed with their philosophies in mind. My models are intended to be played with by children, but can also be enjoyed by adults, and are playful, whimsical and also include motion and engineering techniques. I'm perhaps also worried they will make a product similar to mine before I get to 10,000 votes.

[Aanchir]

When/where was this announced Aanchir? I missed that.

I had thought it was in the Project Guidelines and House Rules; however, I'm not finding it there now. So that may have been an unintentional inference on my part. Still, it seems logical as it would explain the reason creators of new part projects are paid a flat fee rather than a percentage of net sales.

[The Real Indiana Jones]

Yes, Aanchir is right. I definitely remember reading the exact same thing in the Official Blog... But of course, be wary that they can change the rules in Beta suddenly and without any major announcement. You just have to review the Official Blog periodically to scan for major changes, or just keep your ear to the wire for sudden changes!