Future Train sets discussion/speculation

[jrathfon]

To the last two posters, I agree with both statements. While I don't foresee or expect a fully flushed HO hobby assortment, I do think with a little enrichment to the start of a system (to start with single duplicate cars and a bit more track) a larger following could be fostered. I agree LEGO should provide a broad spectrum, I just wish certain themes would see a little more in depth attention (i.e. trains and pirate ships!).

[peterab]

But there's no proof for it. Actually, no such sets are offered. So no one can say that they won't sell well, just because they did not sell well one decade ago.

The best predictor for future behaviour is past behaviour. We have 50 years of proof that complete train sets sell better than single cars. You have no proof that this situation has changed. You are the one making the claim that things have changed, yet you cant give any indication that suggests that this is the case. Your argument appears to be "I want it, so many other people must want it too" but that is an insufficient argument. Most likely there are tens of thousands of people who do want single carriages, but in all probability only hundreds of thousands would be a convincing number to get your set stocked in major retailers.

So you are saying that the results ofTLC's market research are always 100% perfect, correct and never fail?

Then please tell me, why have sales of the "Friends" theme much better than expected? According to you, this should not have happended, because TLC marketing guys and girls know exactly what (and how much) their customers want.

And on the other hand, why are some themes / sets been flogged and sold at loss? It seems as if the marketing people were wrong in these cases, too.

-> I have no doubt that TLC's marketing department knows very much, but they are not perfect. Marketing people are marketing people, but they are not never-failing prophets.

Friends was a huge risk given past performance of themes aimed at girls, but their market research suggested Friends would be different if they replaced the minifigure. Unmet demand is a far better problem than stock that wont sell, so what you are using as a bad example seems to me to be good business.

Not a valid argument. Within a range of roundabout 600 new (!) different sets each year, 3 or 4 additonal sets wouldn't have a big influcence on production, logistics and warehousing costs. If this would really be an issue, lots of other sets and themes wouldn't be produced either.

While there are sets that are produced for reasons other than immediate profit, most of them have other justifications;

Promotional sets, which act as cheap introductions to the wider products.

Tour sets which help to sell the factory tours.

LEGO brand exclusives which make the online and LEGO brand shops attractive because they have something no-one else has, and allow LEGO to produce sets that might not meet the needs of the large chain retailers, such as lower volumes for larger sets. This is where the Creator expert trains fit. I cant see TLC replacing an exclusive set aimed at another fan base with a single train carriage, since a) you would probably disappoint more of the other fan base than pleased train fans, and b) why replace another typically large exclusive set with a smaller set with lower profit.

The main problem with single carriages is; If you propose to design a single carriage set, why not make it a complete train, and make it much more attractive to buyers and the retailers? Or make the sort of supporting sets you know sell better, like railway crossings or vehicles?

No proof for this, just your personal assumption, unless you show some official numbers.

You must be blind if you can't see the proof here. No train related Cusoo suggestion is anywhere near gaining enough support to go into production, despite some of them being very clever and desirable designs. It is clear proof the fan bases for trains are smaller than other sets. Other designs on Cusoo have gained 10,000 support in days. Some of the train suggestions have gained only a few hundred support in many months, despite being promoted here and other LEGO train forums.

You forget about the fact that the adult fans did not replace the kids, they are additional buyers.

Adults are estimated to be about 5% of the market, clearly not enough to put a set into production without good support from the target market of children. Past sales to the target market of children have always been bad. I still don't understand where you see the miraculous new interest coming from. The train market among children is small, the train market among AFOLs is small. Luckily it is large enough to put some complete train sets on the shelves at Christmas every few years.

Moreover, you did not anwser my questions with "yes" or "no", so I'll repeat them:

Please, have a look at the 564 (source: brickset) sets for 2013.

Do you think that every single one will reach high sales and high profit ?

Yes or no ?

No, but I don't think the failures are intentional, and I don't think LEGO will repeat them in a decades time just because a few fans think the situation might have changed.

Do you think that every single one has come into existence only because of thinking about sales and profit ?

Yes or no ?

Immediate profit perhaps not, but long term profit yes. Promotional items sell other products, but single cars don't appear to work that way because of the reluctance of retailers to reorder stock (there's plenty of anecdote that suggests not being able to buy a complete train frustrates many customers).

Don't you think that also kids own sets 7938, 7939, 3677 and play with them ?

Yes or no ?

Yes. I don't think this supports your argument. If kids already buy the bigger sets, why give them the opportunity to buy less?

Don't you think that these kids - as long as they like their lego train - would like to extend their trains without buying another expensive starter kit ?

Yes or no ?

Yes, but allowing them to might not be the best business decision. When single engines and carriages have been available, the larger sets didn't sell well, only the engines did. The single carriages were left on the shelves and eventually put on sale.

Don't you think that parents, aunts, uncles, grandparents of these kids would like to buy smaller aditional sets as gifts ?

Yes or no ?

Yes, but for the same reasons as above it's not necessarily a good business decision to let them. Particularly since many other City sets exist which they will most likely settle for anyway without risking cannibalising the sales of the large train sets.

It really would be interesting to know your concrete answers to that questions, instead of repeating "they won't sell". In history, there are lots of examples where people thought that things wouldn't sell, and they were proven wrong.

You miss my point over and over. It's not a matter of if they will sell or not. It's a matter of if the will sell enough. LEGO clearly believe their sales are better/easier/more efficient if they restrict trains to complete sets only. Any suggestion to go away from what they currently do needs to come along with an explanation of why changing will be better/easier/more efficient than hat they currently do. All your suggestions fail because they don't actually address the sales issue.

The historical examples of things unexpectedly selling are accompanied by a change in situation, which you have said might have happened. A good business case isn't lets just do it in case fifty years of experience is wrong, it tries to predict and understand the change, and base a case around it. You are suggesting things might have changed, but make no concrete suggestion what it is, that might have changed. Without that you have wishful thinking not a convincing argument.

[Luke_likes_Lego]

No train related Cusoo suggestion is anywhere near gaining enough support to go into production

Sad but true.......I'm living proof. Beefcake, BEEFCAKE!!

It's not a matter of if they will sell or not. It's a matter of if the will sell enough.

Again, sad but true...the opportunity cost of dropping another line to make a series of carriages will probably be too high risk.

Maybe something new....city lines with cars on the side/integrated....instead of train lines with trains on the side he says naively optimistically

Cheers,

LLL

[JopieK]

@jrathfon: welcom to EB, and the Train Forum in particular of course.

One of the major problems with trains is of course that they should represent existing things without being unrecognizable for most people. For example the Santa Fe series, they are not very recognizable for the Europeans apart from some train fans. Same with the metroliner. The horizon express might be not very recognizable for Americans / Asians, but trains like that can be seen in Europe (not the TGV anymore, but the French successor Thalys (that also travels through Belgium and Holland), the German ICE, the French / Brittish Eurostar, the recently crashed Spanish Renfe, etc. The same for track accessories: the Dutch signal system differs quite a bit from that in Germany, Belgium, etc. (we have a very simple system compared to most European countries, but in the US I think the system is even more simple).

A boat is a boat so to say (there are of course a vast amount of different ships, but the one's seen in Rotterdam can be also seen in Shanghai or New York). The look of a typical truck might differ a bit on each continent but not to the extent of trains.

That might be why LEGO choose to bring out that many steam trains in the eighties: although they can differ quite a bit if one has a careful look, almost all steam engines have the same silhouette from a distance.

[1974]

Trucks in the US and EU are rather different TLG don't do trains 'cause they don't sell. Simple as that. They could however do a lot to push a new line, but they choose not to. At least it easy to get all the parts we need for our MOCs, so I think there's little need to complain. Sure, I'd luv to see a fullblown train them like in the eighties .. might happen one day, might not. Life is too short to wait for that

[peterab]

Trucks in the US and EU are rather different TLG don't do trains 'cause they don't sell. Simple as that. They could however do a lot to push a new line, but they choose not to. At least it easy to get all the parts we need for our MOCs, so I think there's little need to complain. Sure, I'd luv to see a fullblown train them like in the eighties .. might happen one day, might not. Life is too short to wait for that

And part of the reason they don't sell is the large differences between networks. While trucks also differ, they are far more recognisable, particularly ones with functional features such as rubbish trucks, fir engines or cement mixers. People tend to like things that are more familiar to them. It's hard to make a very generic train without it being too simplified for AFOLs, and as soon as you start putting in a lot of detail you risk making it specific to one country or continent.

I'm always amazed that whatever train LEGO produces there will be some people saying it is unrealistic while at the same time some will say it's very near to a particular prototype. For me I now judge new train sets for a few different purposes; a) Will the train serve as a good parts pack for Mocs ? b) Does it fit with the time and place I've chosen for my layout ? c) Is it a good looking train useful for running at public exhibitions on my clubs layout ? Pretty much every train falls into at least one of these categories to some extent. Furthermore I know if we all buy the current trains, the theme is more likely to grow in the future.

Edited August 3, 2013 by peterab

[1974]

The reason they don't sell is because kids are not into trains. They don't care about networks etc so that point is moot

[Spitfire2865]

The reason they don't sell is because kids are not into trains. They don't care about networks etc so that point is moot

Sadly this is true. So many people today just dont have interest in, or even respect for railroads.

[peterab]

The reason they don't sell is because kids are not into trains. They don't care about networks etc so that point is moot

While this is probably the most important reason for most kids, if this were 100% true we wouldn't have any trains at all.

In fact in the last four years we've had quite a lot of complete train sets, Emerald Night, Yellow Cargo Train, Red Passenger Train, Toy Story Western Train, Hogwart's Express 3, Maersk Train, Red Cargo Train, Horizon Express, Constitution Train Chase. This must be some sort of record for a four year period, so at least some kids like trains. In all probability the sales of LEGO trains are at an all time high. The difficulty is this is also true for most of the other themes as well, and the other themes are more popular with most kids.

Since the sales are low (compared to other themes at least, even if at an all time high historically) any smaller influence that reduces sales becomes important. Which is why I still maintain part of the reason trains sales suffer is because particular trains are not universally recognisable. It's probably not the most important reason, but it has a cumulative effect. I think it even shows in the train selection we've had; three of the trains are from movies which one can expect were familiar to most kids because they are part of the global culture, the three city trains were sort of generic and trying for broad appeal, and the ones most recognisable as particular trains were limited exclusives.

Of the kids that do care about trains, at least some will care if the design of a LEGO train is familiar to them.

[1974]

Do you know that train sales are 'an all time high'? Higher than say the heyday in the 70/80s? Sure kids like trains but put a 7938 next to the new RPG or Chima castle and we both now what flies off the shelf first

Yeah, we'we gotten quite a few trains lately and a good part of them geared to the older buyers, but TLG doesn't seem to be wilingly to return to a complete train theme again. We just get the odd train here and there

You can maintain the idea that kids needs recognisable trains but I don't buy it. It's only now TLG has build such models and in the 70/80s they where much more generic

I've got a pretty decent train layout. I also got a good bit of Star Wars, Technic, pirates, Chima/Ninjago and loads of Classic Castle/Space. My son and his friends (aged 4 to 7) are not really that impressed with my trains but the rest (Technic included) makes me quite popular in kindergarden

[Pief]

Whel I understand the problem for extra train sets but what if they do 5 Hopper wagons in one?

What I also like to see from TLG is that they make an depot for steam locomotives with a turntable roundhouse watertower coal crane.

I think that would be interesting but a huge train station would be cool

[Hey Joe]

Which is why I still maintain part of the reason trains sales suffer is because particular trains are not universally recognisable. It's probably not the most important reason, but it has a cumulative effect. I think it even shows in the train selection we've had; three of the trains are from movies which one can expect were familiar to most kids because they are part of the global culture, the three city trains were sort of generic and trying for broad appeal, and the ones most recognisable as particular trains were limited exclusives.

Of the kids that do care about trains, at least some will care if the design of a LEGO train is familiar to them.

Something that really started to bother me a lot back in my railfan days in the States was the fact that there was absolutely nothing in the railfan and model railroading publications about foreign railroads, except maybe for the occasional Canadian-oriented article. Is it the same in other countries? Do you get many articles about American (North and South continents) in Europe, Australia and points in between?

Kalmbach Publishing is the major publisher for railroad hobbists in the U.S.; this is their umbrella site: http://trc.trains.com/

Joe

[Steinkopf]

Something that really started to bother me a lot back in my railfan days in the States was the fact that there was absolutely nothing in the railfan and model railroading publications about foreign railroads, except maybe for the occasional Canadian-oriented article. Is it the same in other countries? Do you get many articles about American (North and South continents) in Europe, Australia and points in between?

Kalmbach Publishing is the major publisher for railroad hobbists in the U.S.; this is their umbrella site: http://trc.trains.com/

Joe

Hello Joe

The most well rounded magazine is called Continental Modeller, they are owned by Peco Publications who also produce Railway Modeller, Continental Modeller covers a wide range of prototypes from Europe, Asia, Africa, America and Oceania, they don't cover British or Irish trains as this is done in Railway Modeller. Model Rail Magazine also had an international version called Model Rail International but I don't know what has happened to it as I haven't seen it available for a while, the main magazine in Australia is Australian Model Railway Magazine, they only focus on Australian prototypes.

I have to agree with you when you look at the Railfan and Model Rail community in the US in particular the magazines that there is little to nothing about overseas railways it's as if the rest of the world does not exist, I will acknowledge though that there are small pockets of modellers in the US that model British and European prototypes, one of the largest RhB layouts I have seen was done by a group on the West Coast.

Edited August 4, 2013 by Steinkopf

[peterab]

Do you know that train sales are 'an all time high'? Higher than say the heyday in the 70/80s? Sure kids like trains but put a 7938 next to the new RPG or Chima castle and we both now what flies off the shelf first

No, and we are unlikely to know since TLC don't reveal these sort of figures. Two things lead me to suspect it though; a) LEGO sales in general are far higher than they have been in the past (in the 70's LEGO was a relatively small company, now they are one of the biggest in the world), and b) we've had far more complete train sets than we've ever had before. If train sets didn't perform at least reasonably there would be no reason to make so many different ones. It is not incompatible that train sets are selling better than ever before and they are also a relatively poor seller compared to other themes.

Yeah, we'we gotten quite a few trains lately and a good part of them geared to the older buyers, but TLG doesn't seem to be wilingly to return to a complete train theme again. We just get the odd train here and there

I think that has to do more with retailers wanting fast moving stock. TLC is dependant on the retailers, particularly the large chain stores since they are now a high volume business, so the way they do business is no longer compatible with speciality stores who are willing to keep a whole line of trains in stock for the three to four years. Large retailers around here tend to stock only the newest items, and only re-order the very high selling sets.

It will be interesting to see if in the future the LEGO brand stores and website start to replace the big retailers, perhaps then TLC will be able to offer a larger train line.

You can maintain the idea that kids needs recognisable trains but I don't buy it. It's only now TLG has build such models and in the 70/80s they where much more generic

Many, perhaps most kids don't, but if it further affects sales for a less popular theme it could still be quite damaging. Go and read the comments on the current city train reviews. I'll bet you find a few comments on each that they wont buy it because they prefer more American/European/Whatever trains.

I've got a pretty decent train layout. I also got a good bit of Star Wars, Technic, pirates, Chima/Ninjago and loads of Classic Castle/Space. My son and his friends (aged 4 to 7) are not really that impressed with my trains but the rest (Technic included) makes me quite popular in kindergarden

Yeah, most kids that have seen my LEGO want to play with the Fire Engines :-) At train shows on the really big layout my club has most kids are fascinated, but many like it because it's a complete city scene, not necessarily for the trains. Some kids are very knowledgeable about and fascinated by the trains themselves.

Something that really started to bother me a lot back in my railfan days in the States was the fact that there was absolutely nothing in the railfan and model railroading publications about foreign railroads, except maybe for the occasional Canadian-oriented article. Is it the same in other countries? Do you get many articles about American (North and South continents) in Europe, Australia and points in between?

As an addition to what Dave said, in Australia it's way more expensive to model Australian trains since our population is small and production of Australian stuff is in much smaller lots. Therefore we also get a bit of everything from everywhere else. Because my mother is German I grew up fascinated by German trains. One of my favourite books on layout building is a Kalmbach publication.

[1974]

It's AFOLs (who make up a tiny portion of the buyers, the '5%' figure have been mentioned a few times) who complain about realism, not kids

It's true that TLG is a biggie now, but how well did trains sell, percentage wise, back then campared to now? I think it was a bigger succes back then. But as you mention, we'll likely never know

And TLG could be prepairing the biggest train line ever for all we now. They must have some clue how well the recent rather large line of trains have sold

Lastly, back then trains for me wasn't a seperate theme, it was just part of Town. Fitted perfectly with that theme with the numerous train buildings etc. I'd like TLG to do something similar (don't we all?) again

Until then, it's MOCing time

[peterab]

Whel I understand the problem for extra train sets but what if they do 5 Hopper wagons in one?

I think they are starting to do this sort of thing with the exclusive trains, the Maersk and Horizon express seem to be close to this model (though you have to buy two :-). I doubt they'll do it in the city line since they're more aimed at kids, and different cars offer more different play features, so are probably more attractive.

[1974]

Yeah, most kids that have seen my LEGO want to play with the Fire Engines :-)

Fire/police is not very popular at my house. Right now my son is messing with the 42009 teaching his friend that 'clicking LAs are bad, mmkay?!'

[Steinkopf]

One point that I would like to make which has been neglected throughout this conversation is the paradigm shift within the City theme in regards to the type of buildings that are available, these days City sets are more orientated around the playability and interaction of components within a set. The number of civilian buildings in the City theme has been quiet low and they are normally tied in with another element of the theme, examples of this are 3661 Bank & Money Transfer, 60008 Museum Break-in, 60009 Helicopter Arrest and 60003 Fire Emergency, with these sets the action revolves around the building akin to a story unfolding in front of you. If you have a look at the number of house sets in the City theme there has only been one and that was 8403 City House from 2010, back in the golden era of LEGO Town in the 1980s there was a dozen sets with houses in them. The only way to get houses these days that are official sets to be part of your city is to now buy from the Creator range, compared to the past when houses came under the Town theme. I think in some respects the transfer of houses over to the Creator theme has been to broaden their appeal to the consumer, lumping them in with City means they are more geared towards boys, but having them in Creator you are hitting a far wider demographic. I have noticed that the creator house sets are very appealing to women in their 30s and 40s, this group of consumers would never have bought the set if it was under the City banner as its seen more as a boys toy, but they feel comfortable buying them under the Creator banner which has a more universal appeal compared to City.

Edited August 4, 2013 by Steinkopf

[peterab]

I actually like the move of houses to Creator, it means the house is more of a focus, and they are now larger more detailed sets. They tend to be pretty good value for money too.

[1974]

Yeah, but they're only resident buildings. I really miss the diversity from the 80's. You may be onto something Steinkopf, but I think it only applies to online sale. When you go to just about any LEGO selling shop in Denmark, Creator seems to jumbled together with City. I guess Creator houses are more appealing to women 'cause they're typical familyhomes. Just like the ones TLG did in the 80's

[Steinkopf]

Yeah, but they're only resident buildings. I really miss the diversity from the 80's. You may be onto something Steinkopf, but I think it only applies to online sale. When you go to just about any LEGO selling shop in Denmark, Creator seems to jumbled together with City. I guess Creator houses are more appealing to women 'cause they're typical familyhomes. Just like the ones TLG did in the 80's

Creator sets here are normally bunched close to City sets as well, I think this is part of the marketing ploy of where they can be seen to be complimentary to the City theme but be a standalone theme as well.

Edited August 5, 2013 by Steinkopf

[JopieK]

Today I was at quite a large toy store nearby, I noticed they did not have trains (and Lone Ranger) at all... They used to have even Mindstorms there. But now in Holland LEGO needs to share with MegaBlocks, that was not the case until two years or so ago. They have all LEGO together b.t.w. and the problem might even be that there are just too many different sets at the moment!

[Hey Joe]

The most well rounded magazine is called Continental Modeller, they are owned by Peco Publications who also produce Railway Modeller, Continental Modeller covers a wide range of prototypes from Europe, Asia, Africa, America and Oceania, they don't cover British or Irish trains as this is done in Railway Modeller. Model Rail Magazine also had an international version called Model Rail International but I don't know what has happened to it as I haven't seen it available for a while, the main magazine in Australia is Australian Model Railway Magazine, they only focus on Australian prototypes.

Hey, thanks. I'll look into those when I get back to the States.

Joe

[weeble1688]

The reason they don't sell is because kids are not into trains. They don't care about networks etc so that point is moot

This is simply not true. To quote one mother at the train & toy show at which our LUG displayed last weekend, "We saw 25 hours of trains at the 4-H Fair this week, and we'll be here 12 hours this weekend." Kids may not be able to buy trains, but they are certainly still interested in them, whether European or American (we ran Horizon Express, Emerald Night, 7897 PAssenger Train, &/or Maersk Train at some point during the show).

Our LUG brings people into the world of LEGO Trains. Many families see our display and say, "Where can I find these?" or, even worse, "I didn't know LEGO made trains." I can't count how many times I've had to explain that TLG has made trains for over 45 years, and that train sets are available right now at the local LEGO Store or shop.lego.com.

[Spitfire2865]

This is simply not true. To quote one mother at the train & toy show at which our LUG displayed last weekend, "We saw 25 hours of trains at the 4-H Fair this week, and we'll be here 12 hours this weekend." Kids may not be able to buy trains, but they are certainly still interested in them, whether European or American (we ran Horizon Express, Emerald Night, 7897 PAssenger Train, &/or Maersk Train at some point during the show).

Our LUG brings people into the world of LEGO Trains. Many families see our display and say, "Where can I find these?" or, even worse, "I didn't know LEGO made trains." I can't count how many times I've had to explain that TLG has made trains for over 45 years, and that train sets are available right now at the local LEGO Store or shop.lego.com.

There's a difference between simply admiring a train and actually going out and building or modeling trains. Kids can be fascinated by almost anything that seems to be moving by itself. But it takes effort and skill to actually contribute to the railroading community. Most kids who stare with amazement at model trains are more than likely to not desire to be a part of the community later.