Statements about a theme's sales strength

[Zeya]

I've been wondering for a while how people are able to make comments about how well a theme is selling. Are people just speculating, or is there some source for sales numbers?

It looks like TLG releases a document with yearly results. I just paged through one. It has overall numbers, but I don't see them breaking things down by product number, line, or "theme", etc - just overall numbers for the year.

The only other official type of thing I can remember reading was an open letter to the community regarding the cancellation of the "Pirates" theme. In that letter, there was a quick comment saying that the theme met sales expectations, or words to that effect.

So, when people say that "this theme has/hasn't been selling well", how much of that type of statement is speculation, and how much is based on hard evidence?

[davee123]

So, when people say that "this theme has/hasn't been selling well", how much of that type of statement is speculation, and how much is based on hard evidence?

Some people speculate, some rely on sparse evidence, others on *more* solid evidence. Almost nobody (if anybody?) in the hobbyist world has access to "hard" evidence.

Generally speaking, there's no way to tell if people are pulling numbers out of thin air, or if they're relying on some form of evidence. People will often say something and act as though they know what they're talking about-- it's rare that someone will say something with the caveats of "I don't really know, but I think XXX". Mostly, people just skip that step, and say what they wanted to say. That's the internet for you :)

As far as LEGO in particular, people typically make their claims on a few different sources:

1) Reduced prices. If people see slashed prices, they sometimes assume it's thanks to a set not selling well. Might be the case, might not be.

2) In-Stock quantities at local retailers. If people don't see them on the shelves of their local retailers, they assume the sets are doing well. If they see the shelves packed to the brim, they might assume that the set is doing poorly and isn't selling. Again, not always a good indicator.

3) Availability online. Similar to #2-- And again, not the best indicator.

4) Retailer reports of good/bad sales. Sometimes, the retailers will make a comment to a hobbyist like, "That set? It sold out REALLY fast!" Again, not the best data, since the person being spoken with is generally not talking about a trend that they've seen across ALL the stores nation-wide or world-wide, but just at their particular store.

5) Word-of-mouth from LEGO employees. This usually is a good indicator, but it's not usually chock full of details. LEGO knows what's selling and what isn't, so they're informed-- but sometimes the details are misleading. For instance, someone might get told that a set is exceeding its sale expectations, but those expectations may have been set artificially low. Also (and this is important!) there's a HUGE difference between a LEGO representative from a LEGO Brand Retail store, one that answers the phone sales at Shop @ Home, and one that works in Product Design in Denmark.

6) LEGO annual reports. This is typically the best indicator, but it's disappointingly vague as well as infrequent. You can't say "How is theme X doing?"-- you only get told about the themes that they decided to mention, which are typically only the REALLY GOOD ones or the REALLY BAD ones.

That's pretty much it for sources within the hobby community that I'm aware of. LEGO doesn't release its particular sales figures to anyone outside the company (at least not that I know of). That would be the best information, but is sadly lacking.

The other places to check would be major retailers like Target, Wal*Mart, or Toys R Us. If their sales reps say a particular set/theme is doing well or poorly, it's probably pretty good evidence. But I don't think I've ever in my 12 years as an AFOL seen anyone use other retailers' data as a source (unless it was some J. Random store manager, cashier, or stock boy).

Anyway, if you see many of the above indicators being true, then yes, you may be on to something. But any one of them individually is probably not all that good on its own.

DaveE

Edited September 7, 2011 by davee123

[Joebot]

As DaveE said, all the so-called "assertions" are at best, "educated guesses." Nobody on this board really KNOWS anything.

As an example, the convention wisdom is that one-and-done themes like Speed Racer and Prince of Persia were poor-sellers. The movies were both busts, the themes only had one wave of product, so therefore hey were flops.

However, no one really knows if this is actually true. Maybe the reason there was only one wave was that TLC's license with the movie studios was for one wave. We're not privvy to the contractual details like that, and because TLC is privately held, we likely never will be. And yet ... we all say stuff like "Speed Racer was a huge flop for TLC." Might be true. Might not. Doesn't stop us from stating it as absolute gospel.

If Internet message boards were limited to only stating provable facts, the Internet would be a desolate ghost town.

[fred67]

Well, you guys are certainly correct that it's speculation, but there's usually more to it than just having one wave... when there's one wave, and those items are on sale in short order (just a few months), then it's a pretty safe bet (even if not 100%) that they weren't selling well.

[Aanchir]

Well, one thing's for certain: it's a lot easier to tell whether a theme did well than whether it did poorly. A successful theme generally lasts longer, and extremely successful themes like BIONICLE, City, Star Wars, and Ninjago are often mentioned specifically in TLG's annual reports. TLG obviously publicizes their successful themes far more than their unsuccessful ones, and so hard data on how successful they were is often easier to come by. If a theme "fails to meet expectations" (the most solid example I can think of is Galidor), it will often get merely a passing mention. Unsuccessful themes that didn't have high expectations or a large initial investment may not get mentioned at all-- it's the ones TLG made a big fuss about in the first place that people want to hear the details about.

Generally, educated guesses based on the factors DaveE mentioned are the best info that's available about unsuccessful themes. The lifespan of themes is the factor I tend to look at most, just because I'm counting on both TLG and the retailers that carry their products being competent and a lot more knowledgeable about the numbers than I am. Some people are more cynical about whether TLG honestly knows what's best for the company, and that's somewhat fair considering how long it has taken them in the past to deal with failures. But I'm generally confident that no theme lasting longer than one year is a complete failure, even if it may become unsuccessful after a while due to the passage of time and changing demographics.

All in all, when someone says a theme was successful or unsuccessful, you're welcome to challenge them-- ask for a source, or at least some piece of circumstantial evidence. Even I fall into the trap of making speculations but phrasing them as if they were well-supported facts. If there's nobody with a healthy amount of skepticism in a conversation, then it just creates an environment where further confusion will prosper.

[Weil]

Some are well known for example it's widely reported that City and Star Wars are some of the best sellers worldwide. A lot of the rest is just word of mouth, which is liable to be rubbish.

[vexorian]

We spend a lot of time in stores and it is easy to see anecdotally when something is selling well or warming the shelf for a while. It is anecdotal but it is not that bad.

[Zeya]

Good answers - special thanks to Davee123.

So it seems to me like it's easier to tell a very successful theme and a very unsuccessful one. But there's a wide range in between where it's hard to tell. And it seems to me that the best information you're going to get will be from "buttering up" to a Lego retail person or just a person familiar with stock at a retail store.

I'm dying to know if one theme in particular is considered a success or not, but I won't call that out here. I'll just say that I see people speculating both ways, and haven't seen much in the way of "a little birdie in a red polo shirt told me…" So sometimes there isn't even much insider retail knowledge being talked about at any given time. What can you do?

Thanks guys.

As DaveE said, all the so-called "assertions" are at best, "educated guesses." Nobody on this board really KNOWS anything.

If Internet message boards were limited to only stating provable facts, the Internet would be a desolate ghost town.

I figured most of this would be speculation. But I've been wrong before and thought I'd ask. I mean for a while, I didn't know about bricklink, so...

Well, you guys are certainly correct that it's speculation, but there's usually more to it than just having one wave... when there's one wave, and those items are on sale in short order (just a few months), then it's a pretty safe bet (even if not 100%) that they weren't selling well.

I haven't been a FOL long enough to experience something so short lived. But I've heard that Avatar was like that, and Speed Racer maybe as well. Hopefully TLG is now better at betting on their ponies, so to speak.

We spend a lot of time in stores and it is easy to see anecdotally when something is selling well or warming the shelf for a while. It is anecdotal but it is not that bad.

True. But it's hard to tell sometimes what has been restocked since the last time you went. And some stores have messier shelves than others. Like you say, it's anecdotal.