If TLG closed its gates...

[BrickWild]

So if Lego closed its gates--say bankruptcy for example--what do you think would happen to the value of Lego in all its forms--sealed/unsealed sets & bricks?

1) Value would rise

2) Value would drop

Dramatically in either direction? Long term?

Would you still seek out sets and build/collect? Or would you move on to something else?

I don't really see Mega Blox, K'Nex or some other inferior company replacing Lego, but I think part of collecting is to get the new sets each year and that would suffer for many people's attention. So if many dropped out of being an AFOL, demand could drop significantly as well.

Lastly, do you ever envision Lego going bust and quitting?

Just some random thoughts. Love you hear your responses!

[Nikola Bathory]

Hm, I would feel sad, but at least my LEGO collection will always be with me. As well as the memories.

The value would rise, not drop. But it woudn't sky-rocket either.

Lastly, do you ever envision Lego going bust and quitting?

No, I don't. They are doing fine and are on profit.

And even if something goes terribly wrong, a bigger player will buy them and the brand will live on.

[escortmad79]

It'll not happen, if they survived the recession with a profit (Mainly due to having the Harry Potter & Star Wars licences plus the modular stuff created by Jamie Berard) & the poor Town Junior models they created in the 90s then they'll survive anything.

[AndyC]

The intellectual property and the brand name are worth far too much, someone would certainly swoop in and buy it up. Either one of the big name toy producers, like Hasbro, or one of it's construction toy rivals. Of course, there's no guarantee that Lego would remain the quality product we all love if that happened, so I'd rather hope it never does.

[davee123]

Depends on the circumstances of LEGO's demise, really.

A) Global oil supplies drop making the cost of plastic skyrocket. Consumers can't afford sets at 5+ times their normal cost, so LEGO goes bust. Prices for existing plastic goes up, and prices of old LEGO products increase as well, possibly very sharply depending on the market.

B) Global economy takes such a dive that people can't afford LEGO. LEGO goes out of business thanks to phenomenally low demand. In this case, the price for older LEGO probably DECREASES, because the economy has started flushing out LEGO. Millions of people are looking to sell their LEGO to get some extra cash, and far fewer people are looking to buy it.

C) New advances in plastics manufacture (IE non-injection molding or something) allow other brands to produce higher quality plastic bricks for cheaper. LEGO for some reason can't get in on it, can't compete, and goes out of business. Old LEGO goes up in cost, but not very dramatically.

None of the above are likely to happen in the foreseeable future, though. For the next 10 years, LEGO's good. Once you get to the 10+ year mark, though, it gets a little more difficult to predict. I expect LEGO's future is pretty solid for the next 20 years or so, but I could see an outside chance that there's some sort of global crisis in the 10-20 year ballpark.

DaveE

[CP5670]

We would still have our existing Lego collections. There are many products out there that have not been produced for a long time, but for which markets and enthusiasts still exist. I believe Meccano is one example. Personally, I would just buy bricks from one of the better clone brands like Oxford to add to my collection.