Lego Buying Formula

[Soundvox]

Does anyone us a formula when buying Lego?  I bought an order of pick a piece off the Lego online site.  Then I got to thinking perhaps I need to identify a good deal for Lego Sets to buy for pieces.  So I now divide the number of pieces by the price if the number is around 18 then I consider it a good deal, the higher the number the better the deal the lower the number the less of a deal it is.  I also look for sets with special pieces too not just standard bricks.  I found a set at Walmart this past weekend on clearance for $10 off score came to a 25 so that was a great deal.

 

Though I don't build sets anymore,  I'm all about MOC's.  I look for pieces and then build my own creations normally.

[MAB]

There is a well known metric known as price per part. Average sets were about 10c per part for a long time. It is a highly flawed metric as it doesn't take into account what the parts are or their size. 

I tend to look at Inventories and whether I will use the parts. Cheap parts that won't be used are not a good deal.

[SpaceM]

I worked a little bit on this, so let me share what I got.
Please be advised that this is only how i invest. I'm not using this for sets that i want to own and build, and of course, it's not financial advise. And it's still a work in progress.

- as MAB said, any formula including price per piece will be missleading, and for example favor DOTS sets, and disfavor small sets with a lot of high value minifigs. 
- Weight per piece could work, but it's difficult (impossible?) to find the weight of the pieces of a set WITHOUT the box, bags and instructions.
- I found a 3rd approach which gives me the current value of the pieces per price payed. 
I'm simply taking Bricklink's current "part out value", and divide it by the retail price of the set. This brings down sets with high quantity of low value pieces significantly (goodbye DOTS).

Example : on set 75333, the price is €34.99, and the part out value on bricklink is €73.06. Therefore, the value per price is 2.088. In other words, for each € spent on this set, I get a theoretical value of 2.088€ on bricklink. 

These are the variables that i included in my formula : 
v = value per price (described above)
p = total price 
s = longest dimension of the box
u = quantity of unique minifigs
i = personal interest (scale of 1 to 5)
L = shelf live (the shorter = the less buyers = the more value)

And the formula bellow... the higher the score, the more likely i'm going to invest in it:
if p >150€ then score = 0 (to prevent cash issues)
if s >40cm then score = 0 (to prevent storage issues)
score = v * ( u+1 ) * i / L

Bellow, just a few Star Wars sets with their scores

set ID    score
75333        16,7
75342        15,4
75345        14,3
75339        10,1
75330        9,9
75301        6,8
75325        6,4
40539        5,6
75334        5,3
75329        1,9
75335        1,7
75317        1,1
75343        0,8

(I like how even with a "bad" personnal interest note of 2/5, the set 75342 found itself at the second place on the list. I need to find a good deal on that one)
Use and abuse this formula at your own risk, and don't hesitate to help improving it by commenting.
Hope this helped :D

[MAB]

That's interesting. I like how you have added variables based on personal taste when they are for personal use. I also base investing decisions on BL part-out values but have a somewhat simpler rule for sets nearing retirement that I might be able to get on a discount and would part out for sale (as opposed to personal use). I tend to check the part out value once the set has been on shelves for 9 months. The six month data tends to have settled by then and removes too much bias from any initially unique parts, although this can be a long tail sometimes. Then, if the part out value is 2x my buy in price, I will normally go for it. However, I do check the part out value for any expensive parts that don't seem like they should be expensive. New parts/colours that drop slowly in price because they become more common but rarely sell can kill the part-out value.

If I am buying new (released) sets to part out, I will typically check what minifigures they have and estimate what I think I can get for them plus 10% of the parts value.  If that is above the buy in price, I will do it. I tend to only part out either very new sets or nearing retirement sets.

For sets for part outs for me, I do what I would pay for the minfiigures plus any interesting parts and check if they are greater than the buy in price.

There are also situations where the price is just too good not to buy. They rarely happen these days but 50% off and sometimes more used to be common place. Any "normal" or licensed sets like that, I'd buy without thinking, but not if they were from themes that didn't do well, such as Vidiyo, Unikitty, etc. I'm still occasionally parting out or selling new/sealed sets from 2012-15 that I bought at heavy discounts.

The box too big part can be a problem although I don't think I'd not buy due to box size. Some great sets have big boxes! I bought a number of larger LOTR sets knowing I'd part them out eventually. As boxes were not worth much back then, I cut the boxes of sets like Mines of Moria and Helm's Deep in half for ease of storage. By wave 2 I realised that was probably a mistake and got a better storage area!

 

[Toastie]

20 hours ago, Soundvox said:

Does anyone us a formula when buying Lego?

Well, some or many apparently do - I don't - and never did.

I buy what I desire - provided I can (= want to) afford it. Be it a set for a piece or two (max. €10 ;) - just for the fun of it - or a set for the set. However, I simply lost interest in "modern" LEGO sets. For one, there are alternatives to the price heroes. Second, I do not look for the most shiny = no scratches 40x40 super gloss tiles  packed in extra soft plastic bags, nor do I care about color nuances. All I want is playing with bricks and pieces, including electronic stuff. I don't mind studs where there should be no studs, nor do I care about odd shapes - as long as I can imagine, what these shapes are meant to represent.

Reverted to "vintage" LEGO sets (that was the time when there were hardly any alternatives) - of the kind that claim you build a washing machine (#1092/#1090) and man, I can tell you, you need to turn on imagination in high gear to dream up a washing machine from that pile of bricks.

On another thought: We use AI more or less frequently in our research. I believe, coming up with a "score" for the "value" (both in quotation marks, as there are many parameters (apparently) determining these two numbers) - are individually biased. In other words, a formula, be it linear or non-linear but integrable, will hardly work. An AI approach, individually tailored, may be better suited than a universal formula. Oh well, or maybe not.

As said, I buy what I like to have.

Best wishes,
Thorsten           

[Mylenium]

On 4/5/2023 at 2:55 AM, Soundvox said:

Does anyone us a formula when buying Lego?

Not really. And it's not that you need to even cook up something convoluted like @SpaceM. At the end of the day it simply comes down how much you want/ need certain parts and how available and accessible they are. Just like MAB I study the inventories and digital building instructions and then simply go by gut feeling. Thinking about this too hard and trying to be "economic" is just driving you insane. You end up obsessing about fractions of a penny and never commit, which at the end of the day could even work against you when you miss the window of opportunity when the prices were most balanced (not necessarily lowest). I have quite a few such situations where I could kick myself in retrospect not having bought a set when it was around and now have to get its pieces the hard way on Bricklink...

Mylenium

[SpaceM]

Hey there Thorsten,

Well, as I said, I'm not using this for sets that i want to own and build. I'm buying what i want to have, like you...

But I'm also investing in Lego for the only purpose of reselling later. And in that case only, I'll use the formula i described above. And I only use this formula to check if i didn't miss something, and to check if I might be going in the wrong direction. Investment should NEVER be done without some researches, and this is my way to do it.
What works for me might not work for others. But since Soundvox asked if anyone is using a formula for buying Lego, I felt like I should share my approach.

And for the AI part... Everything i tried with AI failed miserably. I leave that for the high tech guys, I'm sticking to things that work for me : good old excel sheets and formulas. 

Have a good day ! 

[Toastie]

1 hour ago, SpaceM said:

I'm sticking to things that work for me : good old excel sheets and formulas.

So do I! There are some Gurus in my group though, who seem to know what they are doing As I am the oldest guy in that crowd, I usually take the freedom to only look at the final results ... maybe a nice drawing or picture.

Yes, I can clearly see the reselling aspect - I don't do that, so I wrote my reply from that perspective.

Have a good day as well!

Best,
Thorsten

 

[dr_spock]

I use the PAB wall and LUGBULK for MOCs.  I don't have a formula.  That's too much math. 

[Alexandrina]

I don't have a formal "formula" per se but I'm always evaluating whether my purchases are worth the money before I commit.

With 'new' sets (by which I mean any set currently available from Lego.com) I usually have a large list of "this looks cool" sets, constantly updated as new sets come out; it's not a checklist to get every single set, but I rarely buy sets outside this list. I factor in the price, the number of parts, what those parts are, whether I can get those parts easily elsewhere, and other things to the same extent. Threshold also changes based on how old a set is. For the most part I'm less likely to rush to get a brand new set the day it comes out as there's still ages for me to pick it up, whereas a set that's been out for two years already I'll probably grab when the opportunity arises.

When it comes to specific parts I want, I'll check via Bricklink whether they're available in current sets, and investigate whether those sets are worth my buying. For example: a few years back I bought Skull Sorcerer's Dungeons because it contained some specific parts I wanted, but also had a lot of other parts that looked interesting to me but I hadn't planned on getting.

With second hand sets, I have a hard upper limit of the Bricklink average price - I won't ever pay more than that for a set (with possible exceptions - that haven't come up yet but could in the future - for sets which were never released in my country; in a hypothetical scenario where a UK seller was offering a Dark Forest set for £10 over the Bricklink average, I might go for it, as postage from the USA for the same set is going to be more than that). I evaluate all sorts of things:

 - Why do I want this set? Is it for the build itself? Certain parts included in the set? Can I find the parts I want for cheaper than buying the set?

 - Is it likely to be available cheaper any time soon? I don't care about boxes for old sets and instructions aren't a deal-breaker. If I find a good deal which includes these then great, but usually I'll be able to find a set cheaper by waiting for a listing which is just the bricks. Obviously for some sets it's very rare to find them on the market at all. A few years back I was able to get Fort Legoredo for £60 used, which is frankly a deal I doubt I'll see again any time soon.

Usually when I buy a second-hand set I've specifically searched for it, because I want that particular set. Sometimes it's just opportunity. The other day I nabbed an incomplete copy of the Belville set Pretty Playground for £15, reduced because it was missing the box, instructions, dolls and dog. I didn't intend to buy it, and in fact I already have a copy of the set, but I would have a hard time finding the cypress tree/lattice bricks/curved bricks/chrome silver tiles with balls on top for less money than that, and I have an obsession with cypress trees  so I pounced.

Honestly though, most of my used Lego comes from job lots, either on Facebook or eBay. I've got a very good batting average with job lots - I never buy unless I can afford the price, and I can see at least a few worthwhile bricks in the listing photo. Obviously there's a gamble involved with job lots, but I've found visible elements like BURPs, the old log palisade panels or distinctive single-use printed parts are a good indicator of a worthwhile job lot. These parts usually mean there's other good parts hiding there, but they're not super recognisable like the yellow/black castle wall panels, raised baseplates or monorail tracks. I never get sucked into bidding wars for listings with parts like that because the price will always go over the odds. I also never buy Lego joblots priced at more than £10 per kilogram. In three years of buying regularly, my least successful lot was worth 4x what I paid for it (I have a very detailed spreadsheet) and I usually get at least 10x value. This also gives me the option of reselling bricks I don't want to recoup the cost entirely.

[Soundvox]

Wow lot's of great ideas, some more complicated than others.  I came up with this question because I ordered off the Lego Pick a piece online and it came to $40ish dollars and bigger sets cost that amount.  It seems with the subjectivity in these calculations it is really custom to the person.  I look around and don't necessarily buy for some time, I was just wondering in order to see which works better buying through the online pick a brick or actually getting sets.  When I look for a set I look for unique pieces, for my builds I need smaller pieces, some technique types some SNOTS aids pieces.  I've seen some DOTS on sale at walmart debating getting them, since my builds are smaller I'm debating if they will come in handy.  The car sets like speed champions seem to have interesting pieces but they do not go down in price due  to licensing.  I think my formula gives me a good judge if a set is worth it, but colors of pieces and types is what mainly draws me in, then I apply the formula,  Recently I got Fast and the Furious Vin Deisel's car for $19 that was a good deal some great pieces, I found very useful.

[ks6349]

No formula is needed.

Check enough, compare prices enough, buy enough. When you have enough experience, you'll know when the best time is to buy.

Edited May 3, 2023 by ks6349

[Ondra]

I used to have formula that mix appeal of that set and piece per price and weight per price.

Some sets can be really overpriced if is not weight considered and others are great value if weight is considered.

Also set that consist only of big bricks can be boring.

 

For me is best set set around 2500 pieces that weight around 4 Kg and price is around 200 euro that also have some interesting functions.

Edited May 6, 2023 by Ondra

[Soundvox]

I made a video about my buying habits and formula

 

https://rumble.com/v6eufns-lego-techniques-and-terminology-buying-lego-for-moc-purposes.html

[Soundvox]

 

[Erik Leppen]

I don't use a formula, but I did start weighing sets I buy, and then I mean the assembled model (because the packaging and instructions are of no value to me.). Seeing if I got good value. Currently the Mona Lisa has by far the best weight-per-price of the 6 sets I did this for so far.

Also, of course, I find it a real treat that the number of pieces is now on the boxes of sets. That makes comparing price-per-piece much easier. Of course, the 10 cents per part (€) is not a hard limit, but with a photo of the model you can make a decent estimate of what kind of pieces there are and if they are of decent size. I mean, weight-per-part is not entirely correct either, because 2 small pieces give more MOCing options than 1 large piece that is essentially those two combined. With MOCing you usually need both small and large parts, so the best estimate is somewhere in the middle of price-per-piece and price-per-gram.

A second thing I do now is check the distribution of the colors of the parts in a set. I recently bought the large Milano spaceship set, because I liked the ship and it seemed interesting to build and reviews were good, but in the end I buy for parts. I was a bit disappointed because the actual number of blue and orange parts is actually very limited. It's almost entirely gray and dark-gray. I could have known that beforehand, had I just checked the inventory better. So since then, when I see interesting sets, I wait until the inventory is available and I count the numbers per color. That gives me an indication of whether the set contains a good chunk of parts in colors I am interested in. Because, well, I don't really have a shortage of gray and black. How different, for example, is the large Simba sculpture, which is a great source of bright light orange, and has a few tan bits I want too. Generally, for me personally and at this moment: the fewer gray and black bits, the better.

Edited February 7 by Erik Leppen

[imposter]

Set has to be:

• LEGO's own theme (LEGO Movies, City, Dreamzzz and so on)
• Playset
• Minifigure scale
• Max. price 250 eurodollars (mostly I buy 10-60 ed)
• Max. sets per year 12 (max 1 set in month)
• Creativeness is everything!

I also give lot of love for sets which are locations, bases, towns and so on. For example Apocalypseburg or Emmet's House.

Edited March 2 by imposter