Pembroke Panda Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 Just now, Maddock Monkey said: There! Ah, I see. Thank you. I thought that was day 1. I seem to be losing all track of time up here in the air, but thankfully I have kept track of my string collection. 1 minute ago, Maddock Monkey said: As someone for whom reading (rather than probability) is a strong suit, reading is not a strong suit. Perhaps I should stop bidding hearts. These sentences make zero sense to me.
Wyeth Walrus Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 53 minutes ago, Maddock Monkey said: Excuse me but I don't think the investigation results are worthless. I mean it looks different if you're not one of the claimed investigators, but being me I have 100% certainty I'm town and not fucking with you. Urf! No one thinks the investigation results are worthless? They’re just not definitive. Much as I wish it did clear me completely, I get that everyone else needs to factor in the insane investigation. also. I’m glad you’re town. Good of you to tell us. 53 minutes ago, Maddock Monkey said: This isn't exactly a new idea - Fergus first proposed it while I was busy doing my maths, then I entertained it while re-doing my calculations because I hadn't thought about the possibility of a scum investigator. It's miraculous how this somehow ends up being Lyev's insightful suggestion. bah. Yeah he did. I simply recalled it from Lyevs response to me. there are no new ideas really, just recycled ones. 45 minutes ago, Maddock Monkey said: So it seems fairly clear to me that last night, had the scum enjoyed a frame or a kill or both, they'd have been able to do that in addition to blocking someone (presumably Fergie) and killing Shanley Pavilion. Not sure why some (ahem Wyeth) are wondering how the scum could have used several actions: I made an assumption about how scum actions work. I could well be wrong.
Evren Elephant Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Pembroke Panda said: These sentences make zero sense to me. I'm in this boat as well. And our horse is nowhere to be found, so Vote: Hendrick Horse
Hinckley Posted July 18, 2020 Author Posted July 18, 2020 Vote tally Hendrick Horse: 4 (Maddock Monkey, Wyeth Walrus, Pembroke Panda, Evren Elephant) Non-voters: 7 (Calissa Cat, Caylin Cow, Fergus Fox, Hayleigh Hippo, Hendrick Horse, Keyarra Crocodile, Lyev Lion) With 11 players, it takes 6 votes to lynch. Currently nobody will be lynched. Approximately 41 hours remain in Day Two. 5 hours ago, Maddock Monkey said: Vote: Hendrick Horse 4 hours ago, Wyeth Walrus said: vote: Hendrick Horse 4 hours ago, Pembroke Panda said: Vote: Hendrick Horse 24 minutes ago, Evren Elephant said: Vote: Hendrick Horse
Hayleigh Hippo Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 I said I would do this, I think I've waited long enough with no sight of mane or tail. Always wondered if he was an alien in a horse suit. Vote: Hendrick Horse There's still time, speak up! Here's a thought that troubles me a bit. Is there any way he could be unable to speak in game? It sounds ridiculous to me, thoroughly insane, and that makes me wonder, given the rest of this. I don't think it changes what we have to do if there is never a reply, but it does make me a little uncomfortable. I think the thin air up here may be getting to me.
Fergus Fox Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 6 hours ago, Maddock Monkey said: Why bring up the absorber role? You've managed to put everyone on a different track and this puts me at the opposite of ease. How do we know the Trickster has some variation of an absorber role? See below. 6 hours ago, Hayleigh Hippo said: There! Thanks. 6 hours ago, Maddock Monkey said: When I asked our captain how the results of an investigation shake out, he said I'd get Defector, Loyalist or Third Party. As it happens, my result for Fergus was specifically Defector, but to me the possibility of even getting a result on the trickster third party means that an absorber is not at play here. These look like the result you would get if you were successful. I think you would probably get an "Unsuccessful" if you target the trickster. 6 hours ago, Pembroke Panda said: These sentences make zero sense to me. I'm reading it as just a long-winded way of saying "Oops, sorry Fergus". 13 minutes ago, Hayleigh Hippo said: Here's a thought that troubles me a bit. Is there any way he could be unable to speak in game? It sounds ridiculous to me, thoroughly insane, and that makes me wonder, given the rest of this. I don't think it changes what we have to do if there is never a reply, but it does make me a little uncomfortable. I think the thin air up here may be getting to me. Taking away someone's ability to defend themselves would be grossly unfair. The rules also require us to post at least once a day. More likely he is unable to speak at the moment, or he can see that his fate is sealed. I hope it is the latter. Vote: Hendrick Horse. I would have been nice to hear from him first, but I doubt he would have anything to say to change my mind.
Lyev Lion Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 16 hours ago, Pembroke Panda said: Those framer and investigator results are beyond worthless. I sure hope that we have more roles than just these ridiculous random day setups, there is simply no way to know anything solid with them. Better than nothing. 13 hours ago, Pembroke Panda said: Or, you could be lying about it completely and there was no failure at all I'd agree this to be a possibility if he wasn't the only one who came forward with his frame. 12 hours ago, Maddock Monkey said: Why would one scum frame another? To appear town to possibly two sane investigators instead of only one insane one. 8 hours ago, Maddock Monkey said: Excuse me but I don't think the investigation results are worthless. I mean it looks different if you're not one of the claimed investigators, but being me I have 100% certainty I'm town and not fucking with you. You could've been insane. I wondered yesterday if Wyeth and Hendrick were playing off each other. I usually try avoiding voicing all my stupid ideas (but why can't mayonnaise be a instrument?), but I guess now I have a excuse to test my theory . Vote: Hendrick Horse
Hinckley Posted July 18, 2020 Author Posted July 18, 2020 Vote tally Hendrick Horse: 7 (Maddock Monkey, Wyeth Walrus, Pembroke Panda, Evren Elephant, Hayleigh Hippo, Fergus Fox, Lyev Lion) Non-voters: 4 (Calissa Cat, Caylin Cow, Hendrick Horse, Keyarra Crocodile) With 11 players, it takes 6 votes to lynch. Currently Hendrick Horse will be lynched. 32 hours remain in Day Two. 7 hours ago, Hayleigh Hippo said: Vote: Hendrick Horse 6 hours ago, Fergus Fox said: Vote: Hendrick Horse. 4 hours ago, Lyev Lion said: Vote: Hendrick Horse
Maddock Monkey Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 13 hours ago, Pembroke Panda said: Are you kidding me right now? I spelled out all my reasoning about why the horse is scum yesterday and explained why I voting for the pig instead You did, sowwy. Would you like a poop as a token of apology?
Caylin Cow Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 Hello everyone. I have risen from my extended beauty nap. Have to keep my fur luxurious. And where is our long faced friend Hendrick? I think this is an admission of guilt. Vote: Hendrick Horse
Keyarra Crocodile Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 I'm back! I agree with voting for Hendrick Horse, it makes sense given how he tried to steer us away from the Pig yesterday. He didn't give me my horse ride either. Vote: Hendrick Horse Seems we are all pretty much in agreement on voting for the Horse though, quite an easy lynch and with no sign of the Horse himself to raise a defence, which is very surprising given his activity yesterday. He must be able to contribute at some point as he is required to vote, so I doubt he has been restrained from talking. Hmm! Very curious.
Hendrick Horse Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 Oh wow holy crap I missed a lot! I'm catching up asap I thought the day would start... well... today! :gasp: Drat. I'm catching up and this is rather nightMAREish. I was very wrong about the Priella lynch. Kudos to those of you who supported it while I was tunnel visioned on Wyeth. Since I'm clearly on the chopping block today I will at least give you all the benefit of knowing I won't be a huge loss as I am a vanilla townie and have no role given to me by the twister today. More to follow as I catch up.
Calissa Cat Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 Meeeoooow. 20 hours ago, Maddock Monkey said: Gee thanks that never occurred to me. I wish I could tell you exactly what the scum did last night but unfurtunately I'm neither scum nor a mind reader. You don't need to have conniptions over this, I was trying to add to your analysis, not detract from it. I also wasn't accusing you of being scum (or a mind reader) so there's that, too. 17 hours ago, Maddock Monkey said: Ginny Hendrick was telling me he was certain he’d be (a) framed and (b) investigated. He must be breathing a sigh of relief right now, but is it the relief of a safe townie or the relief of an unscrutinized scum? Did he give any indication to you as to why he thought the focus would be on him last night? 7 hours ago, Lyev Lion said: I'd agree this to be a possibility if he wasn't the only one who came forward with his frame. If the scum received two frame actions (unlikely but possible), then they could easily claim one and look townie and keep the other hidden. And before Fergus has conniptions again, I'm not accusing you Fergus, I'm just making the point. 8 minutes ago, Hendrick Horse said: Oh wow holy crap I missed a lot! I'm catching up asap I thought the day would start... well... today! :gasp: Hmm. No harm in hearing what you have to say. Also you can tell us yourself why you thought the focus would be on you last night. Meeeow.
Hendrick Horse Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 Wow what a bummer. Time keeping is not my strongsuit. I really dropped the ball here. I completely understand the vote against me although I know it to be wrong. I'm going to look over the people who joined me in my tunnelvisioning on Wyeth. Surely some scum joined after Priella's lynch gained in traction. I'd also say, and you've probably all considered it, that there's close to a 1 in 3 chance that one of those investigated is scum with the results we got. Just now, Calissa Cat said: Hmm. No harm in hearing what you have to say. Also you can tell us yourself why you thought the focus would be on you last night. Meeeow. I made a rather big scene yesterday by being a motormouth. I figured I'd probably see some attention at night as a result. I figured a framer would see me as I likely investigation target and act accordingly.
Maddock Monkey Posted July 18, 2020 Posted July 18, 2020 It's quiet... too quiet. Let's keep up the discussion. I think we've agreed there's a nontrivial chance that at least one of last night's investigation targets is scum. If you had to name one as scum, who would you pick? For me, probably Hayleigh Hippo.
Hinckley Posted July 18, 2020 Author Posted July 18, 2020 Vote tally Hendrick Horse: 9 (Maddock Monkey, Wyeth Walrus, Pembroke Panda, Evren Elephant, Hayleigh Hippo, Fergus Fox, Lyev Lion, Caylin Cow, Keyarra Crocodile) Non-voters: 2 (Calissa Cat, Hendrick Horse) With 11 players, it takes 6 votes to lynch. Currently Hendrick Horse will be lynched. Just under 24 hours remain in Day Two. 7 hours ago, Caylin Cow said: Vote: Hendrick Horse 6 hours ago, Keyarra Crocodile said: Vote: Hendrick Horse
Hendrick Horse Posted July 19, 2020 Posted July 19, 2020 On 7/16/2020 at 7:46 PM, Maddock Monkey said: now’s the time to announce I investigated someone last night... I did some math (I hate counting ) and decided that the probability of someone being scum if they are investigated scum was quite low (just under 50% if I remember correctly) while the probability of someone being town of they are investigated town is quite high (about 85%). Long story short I chose to clear Fergus Fox and well yeah he’s town, though I think that’s pretty obvious in hindsight since he hammered Priella. I was fairly certain of Fergus yesterday too since he came out as the Framer when he clearly didn't have to. I may have been wrong about a lot, but I still believe in him for that. On 7/16/2020 at 8:04 PM, Fergus Fox said: Nice! I tried to frame Calissa last night but was told this morning that I was unsuccessful. Presumably blocked by loyalist scum, but I don't really understand why given it was no secret what I had planned to do last night. Do you know if you would have failed to frame a scum? I'm not sure what the role wording actually entailed but I'd at least be curious to know if it was explicit that scum would show up as Townies if framed rather than the ability simply not working. It is also quite likely the scum chose to block you due to you being the only town role known at the time. On 7/16/2020 at 11:09 PM, Fergus Fox said: That would be our resident motor-mouth, Hendrick, who is being very quiet today. I was affectionately calling him Horsie-poo yesterday, but I'm now thinking "Number 1 candidate for the day 2 lynch" is more appropriate. Ouch. On 7/16/2020 at 11:55 PM, Fergus Fox said: Scum could have gotten a frame , used it on town, who was subsequently investigated by the insane investigator. And the other two sane investigators investigated townies. Three town results, all correct. Possible but I'd wager highly unlikely considering the chances. I think it's more likely that a scum got the investigation and cleared one of their own OR just a random person to throw off suspicion OR the insane investigator caught a scum. I don't have the time right now (I've been so busy ahhhh why did I have to forget the day's start time!!!) to go much more through everything but ATM I'm going to Vote: Carlissa Cat. She was teh third person to join me on Wyeth, and if the frame against her failed that could mean a number of things. After my work today is over in a few hourse I'll resume deep diving into the events I've missed. I feel so stupid and guilty for my negligence and will try to improve my game for the rest of the day. Sorry for letting y'all down and leading you astray on both Wyeth, and now by my own obliviousness, leading you to lynch me as well.
Evren Elephant Posted July 19, 2020 Posted July 19, 2020 58 minutes ago, Maddock Monkey said: It's quiet... too quiet. Let's keep up the discussion. I think we've agreed there's a nontrivial chance that at least one of last night's investigation targets is scum. If you had to name one as scum, who would you pick? For me, probably Hayleigh Hippo. I'd go with my own target of Wyeth or Hayleigh, Fergus is the one I find the least scummy.
Hayleigh Hippo Posted July 19, 2020 Posted July 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Maddock Monkey said: For me, probably Hayleigh Hippo. Any reason or just kind of random? 6 minutes ago, Evren Elephant said: I'd go with my own target of Wyeth or Hayleigh, Fergus is the one I find the least scummy. I'm obviously not going to be suspicious of myself, and knowing that the crazy cow, no offense intended, reported it accurately makes me trust her a little more, despite the possibility of a scum trying to look good. So, of the other two, Fergus is the most suspicious to me, since he had the oddly failed frame. That said, it isn't much to base anything on and it raises just as many questions about his target. Maybe more questions about her. Plus it still leaves a chance of the scum trying to make him look bad. Beyond that, what the hell is up with that comic? I know we're not supposed to look for clues in the pictures, but that goes way beyond normal. Anything I could interpret out of it would probably be a violation of the rules, so I'll just stop there. Except the part about it not being earth. We've been the aliens all along??? Whatever the case, it's going to be a very interesting night.
Hinckley Posted July 19, 2020 Author Posted July 19, 2020 Vote tally Hendrick Horse: 10 (Maddock Monkey, Wyeth Walrus, Pembroke Panda, Evren Elephant, Hayleigh Hippo, Fergus Fox, Lyev Lion, Caylin Cow, Keyarra Crocodile) Calissa Cat: 1 (Hendrick Horse) Non-voters: 1 (Calissa Cat) With 11 players, it takes 6 votes to lynch. Currently Hendrick Horse will be lynched. Just under 7 hours remain in Day Two. 16 hours ago, Hendrick Horse said: Vote: Carlissa Cat.
Hendrick Horse Posted July 19, 2020 Posted July 19, 2020 16 hours ago, Hayleigh Hippo said: Beyond that, what the hell is up with that comic? I know we're not supposed to look for clues in the pictures, but that goes way beyond normal. Anything I could interpret out of it would probably be a violation of the rules, so I'll just stop there. Except the part about it not being earth. We've been the aliens all along??? I think it was the universe's way of telling me not to give up, which I appreciate. I will say though that this whole day has been a busy and stressful one outside of the context of finding scum and while I could have acted on that morale boost, I simply haven't had the time. I will continue trying to parse the facts of this game in my last hours, but have little hope of extracting myself from the chopping block. I am a vanilla Townie. I have not received a single role of which I am aware. I saw Wyeth's comments as originating from a scummy mindset and still do. I don't necessarily think you should pivot towards him when I flip town tomorrow because it was just a day 1 suspicion of mine, but he's certainly not clear in my mind in the slightest. 1 of the 3 investigated "Town" members OR 1 of those 3 who was the investigator is likely scum unless the scum framer hit their mark. Look into those 6. I'm sorry I didn't get here early enough to convince more people to look into them but there's no use lamenting what I COULD have done. I only hope to encourage all of you to learn from my death and hone in on the actual Loyalists.
Calissa Cat Posted July 19, 2020 Posted July 19, 2020 Meow. Vote: Hendrick Horse Meow. I wanted to hear something from you. I did, and I don't like it. You seem to think that the reasoning for voting for you from your main accusers, i.e. apparently attempting to direct the vote away from Pernilla, is acceptable to you as you start to look for someone else to vote for who was in a similar position. On 7/18/2020 at 7:31 PM, Hendrick Horse said: I'm going to look over the people who joined me in my tunnelvisioning on Wyeth. Surely some scum joined after Priella's lynch gained in traction. 19 hours ago, Hendrick Horse said: I don't have the time right now (I've been so busy ahhhh why did I have to forget the day's start time!!!) to go much more through everything but ATM I'm going to Vote: Carlissa Cat. She was teh third person to join me on Wyeth, and if the frame against her failed that could mean a number of things. You found one. Not the next one, but one after. But you did think Wyeth was scummy, so why would you vote for someone else who thought so too and even gave better reasons? Did you even read my reasons for voting for Wyeth? Did you read my reasoning for voting for Wyeth over Priella? Meow, you just plucked another name. I should pat pat pat pat pat you in the head. 1 hour ago, Hendrick Horse said: I saw Wyeth's comments as originating from a scummy mindset and still do. I don't necessarily think you should pivot towards him when I flip town tomorrow because it was just a day 1 suspicion of mine, but he's certainly not clear in my mind in the slightest. Meeeooww. Lyev wondered if you two were playing off each other and I agreed with him, and now you're directing us away from Wyeth, even though you still seem to think he's scummy. On 7/18/2020 at 7:31 PM, Hendrick Horse said: I'd also say, and you've probably all considered it, that there's close to a 1 in 3 chance that one of those investigated is scum with the results we got. 1 hour ago, Hendrick Horse said: 1 of the 3 investigated "Town" members OR 1 of those 3 who was the investigator is likely scum unless the scum framer hit their mark. Look into those 6. I'm sorry I didn't get here early enough to convince more people to look into them but there's no use lamenting what I COULD have done. I only hope to encourage all of you to learn from my death and hone in on the actual Loyalists. A significant amount of discussion today (which it seems you've now read) has been about whether or not there might be scum, and if so how many, amongst the investigators and their investigatees. There was Math, even. This sounds like an impassioned plea, but really it's just stating the obvious with added emotion. Given your "passion" about this, why aren't you voting for your best bet within that six? A group that also contains Wyeth! Meow.
Hinckley Posted July 19, 2020 Author Posted July 19, 2020 The day has ended with the lynching of Hendrick Horse. There is a strict 24 hour deadline for Night Actions. Conclusion soon.
Hinckley Posted July 20, 2020 Author Posted July 20, 2020 Final vote tally Hendrick Horse: 11 (Maddock Monkey, Wyeth Walrus, Pembroke Panda, Evren Elephant, Hayleigh Hippo, Fergus Fox, Lyev Lion, Caylin Cow, Keyarra Crocodile, Calissa Cat) Calissa Cat: 1 (Hendrick Horse) With 11 players, it takes 6 votes to lynch. Currently Hendrick Horse will be lynched. The day is officially over. You have 22 hours to get your Night Actions in. Night Two will last a maximum of 48 hours. If the Night Actions come in early, I can start the day early, which could be less than the 24 hour mark, so be sure to check in! 5 hours ago, Calissa Cat said: Vote: Hendrick Horse
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